WI: Yuan Shikai is executed in 1908

[Bomster]

I read somewhere that supposedly the Guangxu Emperor included in his will that Yuan Shikai was to be executed upon his death. This never happened, and Shikai would go on to broker the abdication of the Emperor, leading to the creation of the Republic of China, and it’s fragmentation due to his attempt to declare himself Emperor. But what if he was executed? Would the Chinese republican cause be set back and the Qing survive a little longer? Will someone like Cai E be able to broker the deal and allow the creation of the Chinese Republic, also averting the warlord era?

 

[raharris1973]

While Yuan brokered the deal, I think he was also going along with the tide. While if you had someone loyally monarchist and competent across the board they might be able to crush the rebels and prolong the monarchy, that outcome would require more explaining that the revolution simply succeeding.

 

[raharris1973]

This is an interesting PoD - I suspect the result would be a bit of a messier Xinhai revolution, with the Manchus holding on to northern provinces a little longer, but with Republican revolutionaries winning in the end, and people like Sun Yat-Sen or Song Jiaoren exercising more substantial political authority in the new China. Republicans in power instead of on the run from Yuan's dictatorship would likely mean the Kuomintang remains a loose parliamentary party, never becoming a conspiratorial vanguard party on the Leninist model and with it never becoming dependent on Soviet assistance or models. Warlordism or military dictatorship *could* end up happening anyway, with different personalities, but it is less likely than OTL. Key old regime bureaucrats and generals could still be some significant political power brokers.

 

[Bomster]

This is an interesting PoD - I suspect the result would be a bit of a messier Xinhai revolution, with the Manchus holding on to northern provinces a little longer, but with Republican revolutionaries winning in the end, and people like Sun Yat-Sen or Song Jiaoren exercising more substantial political authority in the new China. Republicans in power instead of on the run from Yuan's dictatorship would likely mean the Kuomintang remains a loose parliamentary party, never becoming a conspiratorial vanguard party on the Leninist model and with it never becoming dependent on Soviet assistance or models. Warlordism or military dictatorship *could* end up happening anyway, with different personalities, but it is less likely than OTL. Key old regime bureaucrats and generals could still be some significant political power brokers.

Do you think foreign nations might back the Qing to protect their interests, such as the British and Japanese? Or would they just simply recognize the new republic after the revolution? I thought that perhaps the Qing dynasty escapes to Japan and reigns in exile, setting up the second Sino-Japanese War with Puyi collaborating with the Japanese to reclaim his lost throne.

 

[raharris1973]

Do you think foreign nations might back the Qing to protect their interests, such as the British and Japanese? Or would they just simply recognize the new republic after the revolution? I thought that perhaps the Qing dynasty escapes to Japan and reigns in exile, setting up the second Sino-Japanese War with Puyi collaborating with the Japanese to reclaim his lost throne.

I would not rule it out. I suppose the theory would be that Yuan managing the transition in OTL was reassuring to outside powers.

However, if you were to make a TL you would need to justify it step by step. I do not think outside powers were terribly alarmed by the Xinhai 1911 revolution. It's anti-foreignism was all about reversing the Manchu-Han hierarchy, not about throwing the westerners out. Outside powers seemed to regard it as an attempt at progress, not an outbreak against their interests and the treaty system.