WI: the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis Escalates

[jeckl]

So doing a little reading about the Crisis and some of the missiles got close to Taiwan (One report i read said one missile went 19 metres over the capital)

So what happens if Taiwan gets hit by a missile and retaliates, how much could things escalate?

Could it lead to a war between the US (and maybe others) and China?

How would it affect relations between the Chinas and the rest of the world? (thinking about the Hong Kong hand over)

 

[ar-pharazon]

The US would destroy the Chinese navy and air force and likely strike some land targets in the PRC-absolute worst case scenario would be nuclear war.

At the time I believe the PLAF, PLAN, and Chinese nuclear forces were not as advanced as they would be even a decade later. So the US wins with maybe the Chinese striking Guam or hawaii-worst case scenario is nuclear war though I don't believe that would happen.

If the Chinese bombard Taiwan with missiles and then launch a ground invasion before the USN can react then it would likely be a fait accompli situation where the world begrudgingly accepts Chinese integration of Taiwan.

 

[jeckl]

The US would destroy the Chinese navy and air force and likely strike some land targets in the PRC-absolute worst case scenario would be nuclear war.

At the time I believe the PLAF, PLAN, and Chinese nuclear forces were not as advanced as they would be even a decade later. So the US wins with maybe the Chinese striking Guam or hawaii-worst case scenario is nuclear war though I don't believe that would happen.

If the Chinese bombard Taiwan with missiles and then launch a ground invasion before the USN can react then it would likely be a fait accompli situation where the world begrudgingly accepts Chinese integration of Taiwan.

I don't think China could take the main island (lack of sea lift) I think they can take some of the smaller and closer islands (and maybe HK as well)

I picture air war, what was Chinas air power like at the time? Could they strike US bases in the region (SK, Japan)? Would thy strike them?

 

[Shoulder Monkays]

I don't think China could take the main island (lack of sea lift) I think they can take some of the smaller and closer islands (and maybe HK as well)

I picture air war, what was Chinas air power like at the time? Could they strike US bases in the region (SK, Japan)? Would thy strike them?

Glad to help here as a Chinese national.

In 1996 the ROC Military was actually vastly better-funded than the PLA. By that I mean the overall military expenditure of the former is in fact slightly higher than that of the latter (yep).

AF-wise, the PLAAF was just getting familiar with the newly-acquired Su-27s (Su-27SK single-seaters and Su-27UBK twin-seaters - delivery started in 1992 while domestic building under license was confirmed in late 1996). By that time there were most likely less than 48 of those planes. They also were NOT equipped with R-77 AAMs back then, I believe.

Most of the PLAAF fleet were comprised of J-6 (MiG-19) and J-7 (MiG-21) fighters. Even heavily-modified J-7s and domestically-developed J-8s (the J-8II variant is likely comparable to Su-15 interceptors) were scarce.

Regarding strikers, most of them were Q-5s (a reliable but outdated design developed in the 1960s). The JH-7 had only entered production a few years earlier (I think the first unit was formed in 1994). The major variant JH-7A was equipped years later (in 2004).

So even I (as patriotic as I am) wouldn't hold my breath.

Also ar-pharazon is correct. By then the ROC Army had not been downsized like they were afterwards. An amphibious landing, if successful, would not be met with further success. Kinmen would probably be taken with relatively ease though, but I am doubtful even about Matsu.

 

[jeckl]

Glad to help here as a Chinese national.

In 1996 the ROC Military was actually vastly better-funded than the PLA. By that I mean the overall military expenditure of the former is in fact slightly higher than that of the latter (yep).

AF-wise, the PLAAF was just getting familiar with the newly-acquired Su-27s (Su-27SK single-seaters and Su-27UBK twin-seaters - delivery started in 1992 while domestic building under license was confirmed in late 1996). By that time there were most likely less than 48 of those planes. They also were NOT equipped with R-77 AAMs back then, I believe.

Most of the PLAAF fleet were comprised of J-6 (MiG-19) and J-7 (MiG-21) fighters. Even heavily-modified J-7s and domestically-developed J-8s (the J-8II variant is likely comparable to Su-15 interceptors) were scarce.

Regarding strikers, most of them were Q-5s (a reliable but outdated design developed in the 1960s). The JH-7 had only entered production a few years earlier (I think the first unit was formed in 1994). The major variant JH-7A was equipped years later (in 2004).

So even I (as patriotic as I am) wouldn't hold my breath.

Also ar-pharazon is correct. By then the ROC Army had not been downsized like they were afterwards. An amphibious landing, if successful, would not be met with further success. Kinmen would probably be taken with relatively ease though, but I am doubtful even about Matsu.

So an island of 100,000 would be occupied, I guess the ROC would want to retake it (with US help) and ask for regonition, would it ask for anything else in peace?

I assume it is a given that the US+allies would win, since PLAAF doesn't the forces to match the US,


Do people think PLA forces would attack US bases in SK or Japan (okinawa)


Also would the international reaction be to PRCs' actions?

I think this conflict would really interesting due to Russia at the time being somewhat more open to the west, then later

 

[Remitonov]

Also ar-pharazon is correct. By then the ROC Army had not been downsized like they were afterwards. An amphibious landing, if successful, would not be met with further success. Kinmen would probably be taken with relatively ease though, but I am doubtful even about Matsu.

To be honest, Kinmen could have already fallen in the civil war, if the PLA invasion hadn't consistently rolled 1-dices on the cosmic gamble there. There is no reason a flotilla of junks could have lost to an incompetent ROC garrison beyond running headlong into - and then getting pasted by - a smuggling operation run by an armed LST.

 

[Ak-84]

The PLA in 1996 was just beginning on the expansion that would take it to becoming the technological bohemeth it is today.
The PLAN subs would be a threat to USN CV groups as would missiles. But a threat which although a casualty cauing one (I forsee several USN ships sunk and damaged) was one which was managable.

 

[jeckl]

The PLA in 1996 was just beginning on the expansion that would take it to becoming the technological bohemeth it is today.
The PLAN subs would be a threat to USN CV groups as would missiles. But a threat which although a casualty cauing one (I forsee several USN ships sunk and damaged) was one which was managable.

Could they blockade Taiwan

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Taiwan Straight Crisis.
The straight minority is protesting and rioting in the streets, demanding their civil rights from the Gay majority.

You wanted 'Strait', not 'Straight'

 

[Time Enough]

What about Hong Kong? Britain still owned it at this point and I get the feeling they would stand by the Americans. PLA and British forces skirmishes on the border is a possibility.

 

[FieldMarshal]

What about Hong Kong? Britain still owned it at this point and I get the feeling they would stand by the Americans. PLA and British forces skirmishes on the border is a possibility.

Skirmishes maybe, but I doubt either the Brits or the ChiComs are really willing to escalate to a full-on shooting war when the US and the PRC are already going at it hammer and tongs. Most likely both sides just increase readiness and stare each other down until the crisis is over.

Do people think PLA forces would attack US bases in SK or Japan (okinawa)


Also would the international reaction be to PRCs' actions?

I think this conflict would really interesting due to Russia at the time being somewhat more open to the west, then later

Not sure. Allowing US bases to go unmolested is probably a dumb move, but attacking them risks escalating the war and dragging more nations in against China.

International reaction would probably be mostly pro-ROC and anti-PRC. Wars of aggression are never popular, and especially not one launched by the last major communist power in the world only seven years after massacring thousands of it’s citizens in Tianamen.

As for Russia, the RF at the time was a major supplier of weaponry to the PLA, and Russo-American relations, while still relatively good, had soured somewhat thanks to Chechnya. However, it is most likely that the Russians would try to serve as mediators between the US and the PRC.

 

[gatordad699]

Not a chance the PLN Navy could have done anything with surface ships in 1996. USN had almost all the 688s and even a few old 637s still left. 688i was state of the art in 1996 and the PLN had crap for boats. IMHO the only thing that would have slowed them down would be running out of weapons to shoot. PLN subs would have suffered the same fate. After the end of the Cold War the US always has a few boats “around” China.

 

[Shoulder Monkays]

What about Hong Kong? Britain still owned it at this point and I get the feeling they would stand by the Americans. PLA and British forces skirmishes on the border is a possibility.

I don't think either side would make a move across the Shenzhen River. I mean why would they?

 

[Shoulder Monkays]

So an island of 100,000 would be occupied, I guess the ROC would want to retake it (with US help) and ask for regonition, would it ask for anything else in peace?

I assume it is a given that the US+allies would win, since PLAAF doesn't the forces to match the US,


Do people think PLA forces would attack US bases in SK or Japan (okinawa)


Also would the international reaction be to PRCs' actions?

I think this conflict would really interesting due to Russia at the time being somewhat more open to the west, then later

They would have a hard time trying to retake Kinmen. If you look at the map you would see how closely connected it is to Xiamen on the Mainland's side. The surrounding can be easily sealed off with water-mines, conventional artillery and speed-boats with ASMs (ex. Type-22 missile boats). That would not be the strength of the 1990s USN. In fact that would be the kind of mission like an escalated/beefed-up version of what the contemporary LCSs are supposed to deal with.

There was no viable means other than ballistic missiles to hit those bases and I'm not sure. I can only say if the US was already actively intervening then the chance of that happening would significantly increase.

International reaction does not really matter in that kind of scenario, other then that of the US. More sanctions though, surely.

Like FieldMarshal said above Russia would probably try to mediate and IMO raise the price for whatever military equipment the PLA asks for in a hurry.

 

[Shoulder Monkays]

I feel like I should mention the equipment and capabilities of the then ROCAF, although the US would most likely intervene, rendering the former to become more of a supportive role.

• F-CK-1A/B fighters (domestic design based on the F-16 with heavy US tech support):
  
  Entered production in late 1993/early 1994. By mid 1995 (first PLA missile test-launch in response to Lee Teng-Hui's moves), there should be 30 to 40 of those planes; by March 1996 (second missile test-launch) there should be barely more (at most 54), as an accident in July 1995 caused the production to halt for some time. The 2 to 3 planes/month pace was restored in late 1995. In addition, there were 4 prototypes - 1 crashed in early 1990s, and I think 6 pre-production ones.
  
  For reference, in November 1995 the second F-CK-1 squadron was formed. By May 1996 it was confirmed a total of 50 planes had been delivered while the 70th had been put through assembly line. Coincidentally they almost had a 1:1 balance with the PLAAF's Su-27s.
  
  
• F-5 fighters:
  
  The backbone of the fighter fleet at that time. A total of 308 F-5E/Fs were produced from 1973 to 1986. Losses till the time of the crisis should be around ~34 (mostly crashes, 2 defected). The earlier A/B variants seemed to have been retired in late 1980s so they don't count.
  
  
• F-104 fighters:
  
  Being retired by 1996 (completely retired in 1998). Some sources say there were once less than 10 of those combat-ready due to heavy duties, lack of parts and strucuture ageing.

• E-2T AWACS:
  
  4 delivered in September 1995 and I doubt if they were combat-ready when the crisis happened. The T export variant was comparable to the C variant.
  
  
• The ROCAF's F-16A/B block 20 and Mirage-2000 fighters both had not been delivered.

Compare the above to my earlier summary of the PLAAF at that time and it is easy to see both air forces would not have been too effective. That said, considering the per-capita spending of the ROCAF was much much higher this would represent better and more intensive training, especially as the ROC military has had a record of (sometimes irrationally) valuing its air force.

The US (even one CSG plus some support forces based in Okinawa) would have been the decisive force there.

 

[Anchises]

As a more general thought:

China is a nuclear power, so I don't think a regime change with outside force is a realistic possibility.

This doesn't mean that America is not drawn in though. Maybe the whole conflict turns into a mostly naval and aerial one.

PRCs wargoals are:

minimum: Taiwan does not declare independence, the status quo is preserved.

maximum: Pressuring the ROC enough to enforce annexation/reunification.

USA, ROC:

minimum: Preserving full territorial integrity of the ROC.

maximum: Taiwan can declare independence and the PRC is weakened internally.

Imho an independent Taiwan is the most likely outcome here.

This could either produce small or huge butterflies.

small: Some heads roll in the Politbureau and the PLA. PRC makes serious efforts to make amends with the west and OTLs situation with China still happens, just later.

huge: China retreats into the "slumber of hostile isolationism and hardline socialism/maoism". Butterflies are obviously huge. Who becomes the new manufacturer of the world?

 

[werty3049]

As a more general thought:



huge: China retreats into the "slumber of hostile isolationism and hardline socialism/maoism". Butterflies are obviously huge. Who becomes the new manufacturer of the world?

I feel like that role could be taken over by India or any of the SE Asian countries.

 

[jeckl]

Skirmishes maybe, but I doubt either the Brits or the ChiComs are really willing to escalate to a full-on shooting war when the US and the PRC are already going at it hammer and tongs. Most likely both sides just increase readiness and stare each other down until the crisis is over.



Not sure. Allowing US bases to go unmolested is probably a dumb move, but attacking them risks escalating the war and dragging more nations in against China.

International reaction would probably be mostly pro-ROC and anti-PRC. Wars of aggression are never popular, and especially not one launched by the last major communist power in the world only seven years after massacring thousands of it’s citizens in Tianamen.

As for Russia, the RF at the time was a major supplier of weaponry to the PLA, and Russo-American relations, while still relatively good, had soured somewhat thanks to Chechnya. However, it is most likely that the Russians would try to serve as mediators between the US and the PRC.

I think if the UK lets US ships dock in HK PRC might try to take it, other wise they will maybe just mass some troops there and try to intimidate it, I doubt it would but might it affect the hand over?


My feeling is the longer the war goes on the more likely PRC are to strike, anything more then a month or 2 and the chances go up a lot. Now the strikes risk bringing Japan and SK in on US side, as well as other allies (which I could see leading PRC attacking HK)

Ok, do people think the US could 'pay' RF enough to stop selling weapons to PRC? (also would the war help the RF economy?)


I think the US will go gulf war on PRC, long air campaign (with allies) and limited, navel/spec forces usage.

Maybe ending with them trying to retake the Island (hard as it might be), with PLA degraded.

As a more general thought:

China is a nuclear power, so I don't think a regime change with outside force is a realistic possibility.

This doesn't mean that America is not drawn in though. Maybe the whole conflict turns into a mostly naval and aerial one.

PRCs wargoals are:

minimum: Taiwan does not declare independence, the status quo is preserved.

maximum: Pressuring the ROC enough to enforce annexation/reunification.

USA, ROC:

minimum: Preserving full territorial integrity of the ROC.

maximum: Taiwan can declare independence and the PRC is weakened internally.

Imho an independent Taiwan is the most likely outcome here.

This could either produce small or huge butterflies.

small: Some heads roll in the Politbureau and the PLA. PRC makes serious efforts to make amends with the west and OTLs situation with China still happens, just later.

huge: China retreats into the "slumber of hostile isolationism and hardline socialism/maoism". Butterflies are obviously huge. Who becomes the new manufacturer of the world?

Yes, barring a coup (which I don't see happening unless some bright spark says 'lets use nukes' the PRC will remain largely as it is.

How would the people of PRC react to the war? To say bombing raids on their cities, could there be riots or anything like that.

I also see relations (even in the best shortest war) cooling, a lot.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Maybe ending with them trying to retake the Island

What Taiwan? The PLA doesn't have a hope in hell of securing a beachhead let along seizing the island

 

[Shoulder Monkays]

I think if the UK lets US ships dock in HK PRC might try to take it, other wise they will maybe just mass some troops there and try to intimidate it, I doubt it would but might it affect the hand over?

Not possible. Just look at the maps. Docking military vessels in Hong Kong which is within the range of land-based ASM units is pretty suicidal. Unless of course if you say the PLA presence nearby has been neutralized, but that is a lot to ask (think of the bombing of Serbia which eventually ended up with most of the Serbian military hardware surviving). In turn if that has already happened so that USN ships can stay at HK, why would you worry about a PLA invasion of HK anyways then?

How would the people of PRC react to the war? To say bombing raids on their cities, could there be riots or anything like that.

Not likely. I've been through the crisis first-hand and basically people felt the Clinton administration was intentionally testing our limit by inviting Lee Teng-Hui and all. If anything we were angry and although bombings could cause social disruption and chaos, I can only anticipate most of us to become even angrier at the US.

But if the CIA doubles down on Tibet and/or Xinjiang maybe they could start medium-scale riots there with little to no effect on the eastern coastline though.