He's likely talking about Kinmen, an RoC-controlled island just next to PRC Xiamen. We talked about the possibility/likeliness of PLA taking it in this hypothetical escalation.
WI: the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis Escalates
- Thread starter jeckl
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He's likely talking about Kinmen, an RoC-controlled island just next to PRC Xiamen. We talked about the possibility/likeliness of PLA taking it in this hypothetical escalation.
No the island of Kinmen, yeah we know haha, everyone at the time knew it had a snowballs chance lol
Kinmen is close to the PRC and it would be the site of most conflict (at least that is the view here)
Oh yes, because they are in range, going into and out of the harbour as well.
What if the UK was supporting the US with sanctions? would the PRC just move in and take it to prevent any chance of it being used by the US?
No it, as you say, would be a big job (years maybe)
Ok and if Japan joined America they would just triple down on the support right? Now the PRC are defending against Japan again.
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FieldMarshal
Banned
Speaking of Clinton, I wonder how the war would affect Bubba’s re-election that November. I expect that hostilities will have ended by that point. On one hand, Clinton will have pretty handily won a war with the biggest communist nation left; on the other hand, US casualties will probably be a good deal higher than in Desert Storm. I still think Clinton wins, though I’m not sure by how big a margin.
This is still beyond me. Why would US ships dock at HK? Don't they have bases in Guam, Okinawa and (when it escalates) Taiwan? The "going in and out of the harbor" argument does not really stand up here... It literally would only take minutes (or tens of minutes) for land-based ASMs to launch. Here I consider the PLA has good intel on the status of HK's docks (proximity for espionage and abundant local sources). Ships, moving or not, are still viable targets for ASMs.
I think the initial PLA efforts would still be focused on taking Kinmen and Matsu. Maybe you are over-thinking this. The US could hardly "use" HK anyways I believe.
The US does not need Japan's formal participation. They have their bases in Japan and full authority on how those bases are to be used regardless. The JMSDF could of course help with ASW, which they are good at. The JASDF's F-1 strike fighters would be useful against any PLAN surface ships while some of their F-15 fighters, when deployed in the southwestern islands could do some air-patrol missions (but you would already have 1 or 2 USN CSGs for all these...). Otherwise I cannot think of any way the JSDF could more actively contribute to this. They lacked the projection capabilities and offensive weapons (still do even today). The PRC presence on the Mainland, in Kinmen and even in Matsua and central-south Taiwan (suppose they have footings there) would be largely out of their reach.
Sorry if this wasn't clear I was agreeing with you and saying I hadn't though about it.
Yes I agree. In fact I think most of the conflict would be focused there, with US air raids and other ops only to divert attention.
Ok,
So I was thinking if the PRC hit the US bases in Japan and Japan responded and joined the war
Ah I see. Sorry for not been able to get that.
I forgot to mention if the UK helps the US by getting more sanctions in place, the PRC would probably just bear with it. Taking (or trying to take) HK as retaliation would be pretty foolish on their end, considering HK could still be used for at least trafficking.
If the PRC does that then yes I also expect Japan to join the war. The form of their participation would still be limited though. Anti-submarine warfare, anti-ship strikes, air-patrols. Those are the most significant aspects I expect them to be active in.
I could have been more clear, it's fine.
So you think China would just take it rather then react. That does make sense, in that case I see HK as being full of spies and intrigue haha
Yes, but would PRC still play the war now as a third cino-japanese war?
Probably not. In fact we seldom use that kind of wording in the first place.
The First Sino-Japanese War in 1894~95 is generally known as 甲午战争 (the Jiawu War, where Jiawu refers to the traditional way a year is known in the calendar) in Chinese.
The second one is known as 抗日战争 (lit. "Anti-Japanese War") or 抗战 for short.
If there are Japanese boots on the ground in Taiwan or even the Mainland, maybe people will think of it as 二次抗战 ("second Anti-Japanese War"). But as I said the JSDF was/is not properly equipped and doctrined for that. Also we'd know who our main opponent is (the US) in this scenario, so the chance for that kind of hype would be slim.
Ok, I didn't know what to call it haha.
Interesting I assumed they would want to play that up given what Japan did last time they were at war with China.
If the Chinese fire one bullet in to Hong Kong, that will not end well for them. The UK may very well say, when the dust has settled, that under the circumstances they don't trust China to do the "two systems bit" and the US will back them and the UK holds on to Hong Kong. Worst case they make the UK an active participant.
So you think the UK might use the conflict as a way to scrap the agreement?
What practical aid could the UK offer?
If PRC did attack HK, say the UK build up troops and the PRC believe that the UK will attack from there so they try to preempt it, which while unlikely, is perhaps the only reason I can currently think of for PRC to deliberately attack HK, (accidents can happen if both side build up forces there) could the UK invoke article 5 of NATO?
I mean if PRC did attack US bases i SK and Japan as well as HK, in addition to taking Kinman, then they would look really bad on the world stage
I thought it was a meme but it's all true:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Guningtou
Another highlight of the battle is incompetent ROC troops accidentally stepping on a landmine and illuminating the entire invasion fleet.
Barry Bull
Donor
The problem is the PLA just did not have much capacity to strike at Japan at that time. The IRBMs are mostly deployed at South-eastern coast and most of the air force did not have the range to strike Japan.
Barry Bull
Donor
I think what @sloreck said things would be bad for China if China attack HK without good justification.
You overestimate the PLA at that time way too much. It just did not have that kind of power projection capacity in 1996.
Any air and naval attack against ROK, Japan and Taiwan island would be disastrous for the PLAAF and PLAN.
Article 5 is not relevant, HK is outside the geographical scope of NATO:
Kinman is the sole possible option, buy even that option would be difficult once the USN intervene.
Do you know 1 US CVBG sailed through the Taiwan Strait as a show of force during the height of the 1996 crisis? That tells you how confident the USN felt against the PLA at that time.
Well the OP wanted to know, so I elaborated how would Japanese participation look like. This is not to say I agree the PLA can or would strike the Japanese main islands.
Yes I know, I also think I said as much before. (it's not good to just start randomly attacking people)
So the PLA lacks the capacity to even strike Okinawa, I thought they had some missiles with the range even in 1996
Ok so you believe that US could prevent the PLA from taking Kinman (or help the ROC retake it)
I did not know that, I know there were two carrier groups there but I thought they stayed out side the striat.
So would this be east asian storm (or maybe China Storm?) with the US have air control and PRC getting badly beaten?
Won't go too deep about the rest. But hitting Okinawa would not be a problem. Other than cruise missiles with little detail available, the PLA in 1996 had ballistic missiles such as the DF-3, DF-11, DF-15, DF-21 which could all hit Okinawa from the eastern coast or further. Of course one should not count ICBMs (DF-4, DF-5) though.
Ok, that sounds more in line with what I had been reading, I wasn't expecting PLA to bomb toyko, but i thought they could hit Okinawa.
I also never thought PRC could 'win' the war, or even prevent Taiwan from declaring independence, but now it looks like they would lose completely, with no gains at all.
So would the conflict, in and of it self, derail the hand over?
Say the peace treaty, where PRC gives up ROC might also include HK and M? Or is that unlikely with out some form of skirmish there?