What if, instead of running for President himself, RFK decides to endorse Eugene McCarthy in the 1968 Democratic primaries? Who wins the 1968 Democratic nomination and ultimately the general election? Assuming that RFK's assassination is butterflied, how does his career pan out from 1968?
WI: RFK Endorses McCarthy in 1968
- Thread starter Amadeus
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Chapman
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I'd say that if RFK decided to stay out of the race and endorse McCarthy, the latter might actually have a chance at the nomination. I think it would require Kennedy to actually go out and campaign with/for the man, but they could build enough momentum among the anti-war movement to get him there. With that having been said, VP Hubert Humphrey would still be the "insider favorite", so to speak, and there's a good chance he still comes out on top. But either way, if Kennedy isn't killed and we assume Nixon still wins 68, conventional wisdom says he'd sit out 72 and make a play for 76 instead. Which, assuming Watergate still happens as per OTL, is probably his best bet. He'd be well positioned to win a commanding majority, compared to the uphill battle that he'd have faced just four years earlier. That having been said, I do often wonder if Watergate could've happened sooner/been even worse, given Nixon's hatred for and paranoia of the Kennedy family. In which case, an RFK victory is possible, though not guaranteed. If he were to run in 72, and lose, he may or may not get another shot in 76 (or later) depending on just how badly he lost. I doubt he'd do as terribly as McGovern, and might be able to get it close (and maybe even pull off a popular vote win, if not an ec majorty) assuming no early Watergate.
McCarthy would win the primaries, but Humphrey would probably beat him at the convention. Kennedy would be in a good position to play a unifying role both during and after the convention. Butterflies could see Humphrey winning the popular vote, although Nixon could at least win the electoral vote. (If you swing .7% from Humphrey to Nixon, HHH wins the popular vote but Nixon is still elected President). Becoming President despite losing the popular vote would make Nixon even more resentful and paranoid.
It is highly unlikely that RFK would have endorsed McCarthy as they thought he was a lightweight and there was still hard feelings by the Kennedy side for the reason that McCarthy in 1960 gave a great nomination speech for Stevenson when he was actually supporting LBJ.
Also the Kennedy people were pushing Humphrey for Vice President in 1964 and McCarthy was trying to promote himself for the second spot.
Also the Kennedy people were pushing Humphrey for Vice President in 1964 and McCarthy was trying to promote himself for the second spot.
RFK was very reluctant to enter the 1968 race and only did so after much indecision. Perhaps he can be convinced that his entrance would only split the anti-war vote and make Johnson's nomination more likely. RFK hated LBJ more than he disliked McCarthy.
Actually, if George McGovern had run as the anti war candidate instead of McCarthy RFK would've been much more likely to sit out the race, as he was McGovern's friend.
Interestingly enough, Ted Kennedy had tried to convince his brother to sit out 1968: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-h...kipped-the-1968-race-as-brother-teddy-advised
According to Ted, had McCarthy agreed to add "poverty amelioration" to his platform RFK wouldn't have run. An easy enough POD is Ted Kennedy convinces McCarthy to emphasize the fight against poverty in his presidential campaign, and Bobby doesn't run. Eventually he endorses McCarthy in the primaries and waits for 1972.
According to Ted, had McCarthy agreed to add "poverty amelioration" to his platform RFK wouldn't have run. An easy enough POD is Ted Kennedy convinces McCarthy to emphasize the fight against poverty in his presidential campaign, and Bobby doesn't run. Eventually he endorses McCarthy in the primaries and waits for 1972.
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