Pretty much every "non-aligned" country leaned de facto towards Washington or Moscow in real life. In India's case it was the latter.
WI: Non-aligned, capitalist Hungary after 1956
- Thread starter Fehérvári
- Start date
Pretty much every "non-aligned" country leaned de facto towards Washington or Moscow in real life. In India's case it was the latter.
India form a cordial relationship with the USSR back to 1955 under Khrushchev. (And later supported India over Kashmir and Goa.) This in turn factor into bad relations the Soviet Union had with the PRC. (It got worst when Moscow declared its neutrality during the 1959 border dispute and the Sino-Indian war of 62, which China was serious pissed at.) With this, Russia would stand by China against India, which would ruin any hope for OTL strong relations.
This will have New Delhi turn to DC. (OTL, JFK push for strong ties with India, which show as we sent the Hindus guns and supplies during the 1962 border war with China and even the USS Kitty Hawk before we recalled it. (Kennedy went as far as to say "We should defend India, and therefore we will defend India.") This all went downhill again after Dallas.
If all this happens, you can kiss Pakistan's friendship with the USA goodbye, or have America arm-twist Islamabad into 'keep nice with India, or else'. This will have Islamabad turn to the Soviet Union and China.
What makes you think America won't be neutral in the conflict, like they did in 1965?
If New Delhi and DC are much more closer and if Islamabad has the support of Moscow and Beijing, the USA won't ATL.
Given Hungary bordered the USSR itself and split the WP in two, I have a hard time imagining Khrushchev going along with this so soon after WWII. And I have an even harder time imaging it as capitalist unless it gets a belated Marshall Plan investment. Finally, if Hungary goes this way, there'll be greater risk of a 1989 event and the USSR could find itself having to "invade" multiple countries.
Given that I haven't been summoned, I summon myself.
The biggest problem with this is that the manner of "plausibility" or "pseudo-plausibility" matters as for what results. Issues will be marked with a dagger [ † ].
Also it depends on the definitions of:
The Soviets decide to intervene after its revolution. As David mentions below the political committee's limit was warsaw pact membership. Now it is possible if Pal Maleter had mobilised the Honved to resist Western AND Eastern incursions around 30 October that the Soviet intervention could have been blunted or "gently shunted" ala Poland in 1956.
Who says there are elections? The Central Workers Council of Greater Budapest could well absorb regional workers and geographic councils resulting in a continuously sitting delegated workers parliament with shifting delegations. Which would be dominated by the left of the SDP in the factories, with former Communist left communists in significant numbers, particularly from the white collar and professional councils.
The [left, and internal line of the] SDP in policy coalition with the Youth party [left communist] and the HDIM [left communist, historically organised November 4+], probably with an external coalition of small holders, peasants, liberal democrats; and, an unacknowledged external supported in the Communist Party [Nagy / Lukacs line]
Assuming Western levels of support similar to Yugoslavia:
This isn't my reading. The Honved largely neutralised itself for political reasons, and, in part, because Pal Maleter was too good of a communist, just like Nagy once the Prime Minister's office achieved independence (once the armed goons left).
That ended in 1953 with the appointment of Imre Nagy to implement "The New Course" as an economic test, compared to Poland following a traditional Soviet economic line. Despite Nagy's removal in 1955, the period 1955-1956 was conditioned by economic maintenance of the 1955 position, and political repression largely of the Communists and Social Democrats.
More importantly Kovacs sticks with his line in exile when he has an absolute freedom of expression in relation to economics. I disagree with David's post on the matter regarding the small holders. The small holders' political base in 1956 was in the geographic councils, the SPD's basis was in the workers councils. It was the workers councils in Budapest and the railways that bore the brunt of the revolutionary fighting post November 4. It was the workers councils which called off the armed phase of the revolution (the only power capable of doing so). It was the 4 arrests of the workers council's central leaderships which broke the strikes in December. Additionally, the "maintenance of socialism" included an explicit all legal party agreement around excluding "former" as in pre 1944 parties. The new parties which were readily acknowledged were left communist in nature (youth, HDIM who were basically post-Petofi society and from the rural communist education group to the 1949 purges). In this context, unless the workers councils are functionally insane, they will gerrymander, coordinate or simply control the electoral result. Never mind the gains to be made from the handsome youth of Budapest with rifles.
Honestly, I see a two list election, with the second list being "Communist Party".
Khrushchev tail ended the PC line, so if the anti-party bloc indicate their support for the abandonment of Hungary, he will hang them with it. More likely is the adoption of Mikoyan's report, in which case Soviet aid, rather than tanks, cross the border.
Socialist workers in the factories who didn't like wage labour, communists in the intellectual circles who didn't like wage labour or national bigotry, small holders in the regions who took regional power in a vacuum.
yours,
Sam R.
The biggest problem with this is that the manner of "plausibility" or "pseudo-plausibility" matters as for what results. Issues will be marked with a dagger [ † ].
Also it depends on the definitions of:
- capitalist
- non-aligned
- revolution
The Soviets decide to intervene after its revolution. As David mentions below the political committee's limit was warsaw pact membership. Now it is possible if Pal Maleter had mobilised the Honved to resist Western AND Eastern incursions around 30 October that the Soviet intervention could have been blunted or "gently shunted" ala Poland in 1956.
Who says there are elections? The Central Workers Council of Greater Budapest could well absorb regional workers and geographic councils resulting in a continuously sitting delegated workers parliament with shifting delegations. Which would be dominated by the left of the SDP in the factories, with former Communist left communists in significant numbers, particularly from the white collar and professional councils.
The [left, and internal line of the] SDP in policy coalition with the Youth party [left communist] and the HDIM [left communist, historically organised November 4+], probably with an external coalition of small holders, peasants, liberal democrats; and, an unacknowledged external supported in the Communist Party [Nagy / Lukacs line]
Assuming Western levels of support similar to Yugoslavia:
- A return to state supported family production for market / export in agriculture
- A balanced heavy / consumer industry line
- Significant workers control over production in factories
- Parliament whipped by the workers councils.
- Probably sells uranium at market rates to the Soviet Union
- Khrushchev only seriously considered tail ending the line of the PC
- The PC had two people on the ground Mikoyan [pro-revolution] and an anti-revolution reporter
- The PC didn't know its arse from its fucking elbow. It repeatedly got Yugoslavia, China and even Italy on the fucking line to figure out how they wanted to go.
- As David mentions below the PC voted against intervention, until Hungary left the Warsaw Pact.
- If Khrushchev is isolated from his advisors, he doesn't get a vote in the PC
- Zhukov, in intervention discussion minutes, put a heavily coded "don't fucking intervene you idiots" line, with the immediate claim that the casualties would be awful (and they were), with the coded message that Mikoyan's report was correct and this was a genuinely revolutionary situation to support
This isn't my reading. The Honved largely neutralised itself for political reasons, and, in part, because Pal Maleter was too good of a communist, just like Nagy once the Prime Minister's office achieved independence (once the armed goons left).
That ended in 1953 with the appointment of Imre Nagy to implement "The New Course" as an economic test, compared to Poland following a traditional Soviet economic line. Despite Nagy's removal in 1955, the period 1955-1956 was conditioned by economic maintenance of the 1955 position, and political repression largely of the Communists and Social Democrats.
More importantly Kovacs sticks with his line in exile when he has an absolute freedom of expression in relation to economics. I disagree with David's post on the matter regarding the small holders. The small holders' political base in 1956 was in the geographic councils, the SPD's basis was in the workers councils. It was the workers councils in Budapest and the railways that bore the brunt of the revolutionary fighting post November 4. It was the workers councils which called off the armed phase of the revolution (the only power capable of doing so). It was the 4 arrests of the workers council's central leaderships which broke the strikes in December. Additionally, the "maintenance of socialism" included an explicit all legal party agreement around excluding "former" as in pre 1944 parties. The new parties which were readily acknowledged were left communist in nature (youth, HDIM who were basically post-Petofi society and from the rural communist education group to the 1949 purges). In this context, unless the workers councils are functionally insane, they will gerrymander, coordinate or simply control the electoral result. Never mind the gains to be made from the handsome youth of Budapest with rifles.
Honestly, I see a two list election, with the second list being "Communist Party".
Khrushchev tail ended the PC line, so if the anti-party bloc indicate their support for the abandonment of Hungary, he will hang them with it. More likely is the adoption of Mikoyan's report, in which case Soviet aid, rather than tanks, cross the border.
Socialist workers in the factories who didn't like wage labour, communists in the intellectual circles who didn't like wage labour or national bigotry, small holders in the regions who took regional power in a vacuum.
yours,
Sam R.
Has there been any precedent for that outside countries where the "President" is a dictator?