WI: No Franco-Prussian War ?

[SunZi]

The Franco-Prussian War of 1870 had many consequences in the history of Europe and the world at the end of the 19th century. This war poorly prepared by the French Empire cost him many men, the loss of Alsace and Lorraine, a military occupation and the collapse of the imperial regime then in full reform; giving way to a third republic torn between monarchists and republicans as well as a civil war. Conversely, Germany united behind Prussia, the great winner of the conflict, in particular its Chancellor Bismarck, who skilfully managed to manipulate each actor in the conflict wherever he wished. If a European peace was maintained for 40 years, it was above all the place of an accumulation of power of each major European country which ended up clashing in the butchery of the First World War.

But it is known that Emperor Napoleon III was more than opposed to France going to war against Prussia despite his age and his increasingly incapacitating illness, but the pressure of Empress Eugenie, of the court, parliamentarians and the press eventually prevailed. Especially since the Liberal Empire was recently proclaimed, which forced Bonaparte to withdraw from such political discussion. But what would have happened if Napoleon III had said "NO" to entering the war? What are the consequences for France, Europe and the world? How Germany unifies? How did the French Empire evolve? What consequences for Italian unification and the Roman question? What consequences for colonization?

 

[Dragonboy]

If Napoleon III uses his illness as the main reason, he would reflect in his own mortality and use what time he has left to further prepare his son to take the matle of emperor and arrange for a regency if he doesnt make it to his 18th birthday.

 

[alexmilman]

The Franco-Prussian War of 1870 had many consequences in the history of Europe and the world at the end of the 19th century. This war poorly prepared by the French Empire cost him many men, the loss of Alsace and Lorraine, a military occupation and the collapse of the imperial regime then in full reform; giving way to a third republic torn between monarchists and republicans as well as a civil war. Conversely, Germany united behind Prussia, the great winner of the conflict, in particular its Chancellor Bismarck, who skilfully managed to manipulate each actor in the conflict wherever he wished. If a European peace was maintained for 40 years, it was above all the place of an accumulation of power of each major European country which ended up clashing in the butchery of the First World War.

But it is known that Emperor Napoleon III was more than opposed to France going to war against Prussia despite his age and his increasingly incapacitating illness, but the pressure of Empress Eugenie, of the court, parliamentarians and the press eventually prevailed. Especially since the Liberal Empire was recently proclaimed, which forced Bonaparte to withdraw from such political discussion. But what would have happened if Napoleon III had said "NO" to entering the war? What are the consequences for France, Europe and the world? How Germany unifies? How did the French Empire evolve? What consequences for Italian unification and the Roman question? What consequences for colonization?

AFAIK, there was quite vocal and influential pro-war “patriotic” party in France so NIII would have to somehow manage to oppose them without losing domestic support and probably this would have to start considerably earlier than 1870 with a serious shift in the French foreign policy which would make it more or less pro-Prussian starting with abandoning any ideas like border on the Rhine, being openly neutral in the case of Austria, being OK with unification of Germany, etc.

Unification would happen anyway: it was almost complete by 1870 and it was mostly a matter of some token event without which it would happen anyway.

• France retains Alsace and Lorraine, saves huge amounts of money and international prestige which allows more aggressive colonization.
• German military are not gaining the OTL prestige and there is a chance of the 2nd Reich being less bellicose.
• Friendly German-French relations probably make European and perhaps even colonial policy more difficult for Britain.
• If the friendly or just normal relations persist, then there is a much lesser chance of WWI.

 

[Dragonboy]

And with France retaining it's prestige and Empire, Napoleon's heir, Louis-Napoleon, could increase british relations and cooperations with future endeavors by marrying Princess Beatrice, Queen victoria's youngest daughter.

 

[SunZi]

If Napoleon III uses his illness as the main reason, he would reflect in his own mortality and use what time he has left to further prepare his son to take the matle of emperor and arrange for a regency if he doesnt make it to his 18th birthday.

And with France retaining it's prestige and Empire, Napoleon's heir, Louis-Napoleon, could increase british relations and cooperations with future endeavors by marrying Princess Beatrice, Queen victoria's youngest daughter.

Napoleon III had, it seems, plans to abdicate when the Prince Imperial was old enough to reign. With such a political coup, that of bowing his head before a provocation, I see the Emperor preparing Louis-Napoleon as well as possible. However, this is my principle, his death following a third bladder operation will happen, especially since the scenario of a 17-year-old Napoleon IV is interesting in view of such a context. Nevertheless for the marriage I always remain quite ignorant, especially during this time. It all depends on the policy or events. The idea of an English empress is amusing but the Austrian ones seem more interesting to me, with the death of a Franz Joseph I as a butterfly and the ascension of Rudolf to the throne of Vienna.

 

[Dragonboy]

Napoleon III had, it seems, plans to abdicate when the Prince Imperial was old enough to reign. With such a political coup, that of bowing his head before a provocation, I see the Emperor preparing Louis-Napoleon as well as possible. However, this is my principle, his death following a third bladder operation will happen, especially since the scenario of a 17-year-old Napoleon IV is interesting in view of such a context. Nevertheless for the marriage I always remain quite ignorant, especially during this time. It all depends on the policy or events. The idea of an English empress is amusing but the Austrian ones seem more interesting to me, with the death of a Franz Joseph I as a butterfly and the ascension of Rudolf to the throne of Vienna.

Got it. And i assume Napoleon IV's mother will lead the months regency until her son turns 18?

And i always like TL's where Rudolf survives, and since the Habsburg thrones still practice male primogeniture that means Franz Ferdinand's still next in line, would his marriage still be morganic?

 

[Nivek]

Got it. And i assume Napoleon IV's mother will lead the months regency until her son turns 18?

I don't think he might need a regency...that's the monarchy survives.

AFAIK, there was quite vocal and influential pro-war “patriotic” party in France so NIII would have to somehow manage to oppose them without losing domestic support and probably this would have to start considerably earlier than 1870 with a serious shift in the French foreign policy which would make it more or less pro-Prussian starting with abandoning any ideas like border on the Rhine, being openly neutral in the case of Austria, being OK with unification of Germany, etc.

Unification would happen anyway: it was almost complete by 1870 and it was mostly a matter of some token event without which it would happen anyway.

• France retains Alsace and Lorraine, saves huge amounts of money and international prestige which allows more aggressive colonization.
• German military are not gaining the OTL prestige and there is a chance of the 2nd Reich being less bellicose.
• Friendly German-French relations probably make European and perhaps even colonial policy more difficult for Britain.
• If the friendly or just normal relations persist, then there is a much lesser chance of WWI.

Unironically this is the second-best scenario for Bismarck, France Backed down(too late to help Leopold but who cares) a fight against the NGC, that alone might show the southern that the Union works, so the Empire might unify earlier plus without getting A-L(That bismark wanted less territory as he didn't wanted a hereditary enemy) that means France is not an issue, meaning the can include the french in realpolitik plans.

 

[Dragonboy]

I don't think he might need a regency...that's the monarchy survives.

I most certainly hope that Napoleon IV can stabalize things and make the Empire prosper.

Unironically this is the second-best scenario for Bismarck, France Backed down(too late to help Leopold but who cares) a fight against the NGC, that alone might show the southern that the Union works, so the Empire might unify earlier plus without getting A-L(That bismark wanted less territory as he didn't wanted a hereditary enemy) that means France is not an issue, meaning the can include the french in realpolitik plans.

And agreed, Bismarck much prefered to do things the diplomatic way. And having a teenager emperor will lead to things to be much on his favor in account of his vast experience.

 

[Nivek]

nd agreed, Bismarck much prefered to do things the diplomatic way. And having a teenager emperor will lead to things to be much on his favor in account of his vast experience.

That's even better for him later on, but in general that's how bismarck planned the whole thing, he gamble a little but knew could beat the french in a quick fight and if they'd did backed down, it shows the NGC has some real teeth, a Win-WIN scenario for him

 

[Aichi72]

• France retains Alsace and Lorraine, saves huge amounts of money and international prestige which allows more aggressive colonization.

Would it not mean less aggressive colonisation by France? AIUI France's colonial expansion during this period was a result of attempting to regain lost prestige in Europe and make up for the loss of Alsace-Lorraine by expanding overseas.

 

[Dragonboy]

That's even better for him later on, but in general that's how bismarck planned the whole thing, he gamble a little but knew could beat the french in a quick fight and if they'd did backed down, it shows the NGC has some real teeth, a Win-WIN scenario for him

Very much so. Although he will still respect Napoleon III, considering that he weighted his options and chose the best path for his people.

 

[Dragonboy]

Would it not mean less aggressive colonisation by France? AIUI France's colonial expansion during this period was a result of attempting to regain lost prestige in Europe and make up for the loss of Alsace-Lorraine by expanding overseas.

They may still be agressive in their colonial ambitions to shake off whatever lingering view as cowards the other powers might have on them with their backing down from war.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

No Franco-Prussian War is actually a pretty good scenario for both France and Prussia.

Prussia is already ascendant over Germany at this point so unification is a matter of when, not if (though Grossdeutschland remains out of reach for the foreseeable future). They don't get Alsace-Lorraine, sure, but Bismarck had misgivings in acquiring it to begin with.

The Empire isn't declared through a curbstomping of the French army leading to an acclamation in Versailles, so there's no revanchist angle for French nationalists to latch on to. And that means that in the event Britain looks for allies to help cut down Germany to size (because let's face it, "balance of power" is just another term for "divide and conquer") France wouldn't be a willing to jump on.

 

[John Farson]

Would it not mean less aggressive colonisation by France? AIUI France's colonial expansion during this period was a result of attempting to regain lost prestige in Europe and make up for the loss of Alsace-Lorraine by expanding overseas.

I also think that in a world where the war was averted that France wouldn't do as much colonizing. They have Algeria and a strong presence in Indochina, and those are their biggest holdings. In future they might extend their control over Tunisia and Morocco, as well as in Indochina to the area covered by modern-day Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia as OTL, and also spread out more from their coastal holdings in West Africa, but otherwise they won't go around taking huge tracts of land in Africa that's ultimately of little to no worth to them.

 

[alexmilman]

Would it not mean less aggressive colonisation by France? AIUI France's colonial expansion during this period was a result of attempting to regain lost prestige in Europe and make up for the loss of Alsace-Lorraine by expanding overseas.

There can’t be too much of “prestige” and France potentially may be more aggressive than in OTL trying to counter the British colonial expansion and its naval buildup.

 

[Reymet_2]

No Franco-Prussian War means no Paris Commune. How does the communist movement develop in this TL?

 

[Dragonboy]

There can’t be too much of “prestige” and France potentially may be more aggressive than in OTL trying to counter the British colonial expansion and its naval buildup.

Exactly, and Napoleon IV would be eager to prove himself a worthy heir to the Bonaparte name, specially considering the sluglish and stagnant nature of the last years of his father's rule (and thankfully, this time it would not lead him to an early grave)

 

[SunZi]

Got it. And i assume Napoleon IV's mother will lead the months regency until her son turns 18?

In view of the hatred that the Empress inspires among the people and the openness towards the liberals that Napoleon III had started after the plebiscite, I can see a senatus-consultum lowering the age to 17 or a political coup that spared Napoleon IV a regency of barely a year, surely with the support of the so-called liberals of the Legislative Body. Especially since the elections for the lower house will take place with the majority of the Prince Imperial, so it is necessary to spare the worker and urban bourgeois electorate who had swung into the opposition. Thus, if the French, by the plebiscite of 1870, accepted the regime, they sanctioned the Emperor and that everyone had understood that, in short, in particular in the court. So the rise of Napoleon IV can then considerably strengthen the regime, but the tutelary figure of the Dowager Empress can have the effect of canceling it.

AFAIK, there was quite vocal and influential pro-war “patriotic” party in France so NIII would have to somehow manage to oppose them without losing domestic support and probably this would have to start considerably earlier than 1870 with a serious shift in the French foreign policy which would make it more or less pro-Prussian starting with abandoning any ideas like border on the Rhine, being openly neutral in the case of Austria, being OK with unification of Germany, etc.

I don't see that as relevant, especially since Napoleon III considered the confrontation with Prussia to be inevitable, although it could take the form of a diplomatic surrender by abandoning southern Germany, which, de facto, was already linked to the North although there may be attempts at separation by treaties or marriages because as long as these states do not form a unified state whole with Prussia, then anything can still happen.

 

[SunZi]

No Franco-Prussian War means no Paris Commune. How does the communist movement develop in this TL?

It's quite complicated at this point. French parliamentarism can offer socialists a means of making themselves heard, although there will be, I don't know where, a revolutionary socialist experience somewhere.

The Empire isn't declared through a curbstomping of the French army leading to an acclamation in Versailles, so there's no revanchist angle for French nationalists to latch on to. And that means that in the event Britain looks for allies to help cut down Germany to size (because let's face it, "balance of power" is just another term for "divide and conquer") France wouldn't be a willing to jump on.

If there is no revanchism comparable to OTL, France still suffered a double humiliation from Prussia, which are the Luxembourg affair and the Ems Dispatch, especially since the unification of Germany can be perceived as a third ultimate humiliation. So there will be a revanchist feeling, but in another way, more aggressive aiming perhaps to swallow small states like Luxembourg without negotiations or to set up firm alliances with Austria or even with Italy by abandoning Rome (this can be decided in Paris within the framework of a rapprochement between liberals/anti-clericals and Napoleon IV).

 

[piratedude]

This probably butterflies the dreyfus affair too