WI; Julius Caesar still betrayed, but survives his assassination?

[WorstOfHumanity]

What if despite still being ambushed and stabbed by a mob of senators, Caesar clings to life, nursed back to health in seclusion by loyalists?

What would the fallout be of a few months of instability as people are unsure of what is going on, rumours spread about his assassination and supposed death, and his eventual return? How ruthless would a Caesar with 23 reminding scars dotting his entire body be to his (now exceptionally clear) political enemies, and how would it impact his planned Parthian invasion?

 

[edgeworthy]

A lot depends on what the conspirators themselves do.

Do they flee the city, do they remain, do they establish themselves as the ruling power, by whatever means?

If Caesar lives what does Anthony do. Does he stay at his Commander's side in seclusion, try to act out his official position, or go on a bloody rampage.

 

[Lalli]

Important question indeed is what would happen between the attempt and return of Caesar. What perperators would do now when their victim didn't die and managed yet to escape. Would they are arrested? Or would they flee city (pretty probably if they are not arrested or killed). And if they flee what they will do now? In worst case this is beginning of new civil war. Caesars plans go to Dachia and Parthia would are delayed.

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

Important question indeed is what would happen between the attempt and return of Caesar. What perperators would do now when their victim didn't die and managed yet to escape. Would they are arrested? Or would they flee city (pretty probably if they are not arrested or killed). And if they flee what they will do now? In worst case this is beginning of new civil war. Caesars plans go to Dachia and Parthia would are delayed.

There would likely be a civil war pitting Caesar and Egypt against the Senate; the opposition probably wins.

 

[Mr.Wigglemunch]

If confident in Caesar's survival Lepidus' Legion stationed outside the city will move in.

 

[Hearkener]

What if despite still being ambushed and stabbed by a mob of senators, Caesar clings to life, nursed back to health in seclusion by loyalists?

Step no. 1: bring Lepidus' legion into the city and murder the shit out of anyone associated with the assassination. The conspirators didn't have the means to launch a coup. At this stage, their forces amount to a few hundred gladiators inside Rome herself. With Caesar still alive, you'd need an actual army to stop his veterans from going in and retrieving their general.

What would the fallout be of a few months of instability as people are unsure of what is going on, rumours spread about his assassination and supposed death, and his eventual return?

If rumor spreads that he's dead and whats in his will, there'll be a lot of upset Romans who'd been looking forward to that money. But if the Caesarians keep everything under wraps, there'd probably just be massive outpouring of sympathy for everyone's favorite dictator.

How ruthless would a Caesar with 23 reminding scars dotting his entire body be to his (now exceptionally clear) political enemies, and how would it impact his planned Parthian invasion?

Dictators certainly tend to take a more paranoid bent after failed asassination-attempts. He may just spend a lot of time purging the Roman upper crust like Sulla did. This would of course push the Parthian campaign back quite some time, and Caesar was already pretty old when he died OTL.

I consider the Parthian campaign a pipe-dream; the best Caesar could probably hope for was annexing Mesopotamia. And the civil war had killed off most of Rome's competent officers. Lepidus and Antonius were followers, not leaders. Caesar may well die from natural causes before making any serious inroads into Parthia.

In Rome, Octavian would cement his position as Caesar's heir, which brings him into conflicts with Cleopatra and Caesar's generals. Whenever Caesar dies, the Romans'll probably still get a viscious civil war.

 

[Lalli]

There would likely be a civil war pitting Caesar and Egypt against the Senate; the opposition probably wins.

I can't see the plotters winning this civil war. They weren't prepared anything. Them hadn't even in plans to kill any others as Caesar and assumed that situation would return to normal old time business. Caesar would has still popular support and almost all legions would are loyal for him.

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

I can't see the plotters winning this civil war. They weren't prepared anything. Them hadn't even in plans to kill any others as Caesar and assumed that situation would return to normal old time business. Caesar would has still popular support and almost all legions would are loyal for him.

I thought they would win due to Ceasar proclaiming himself dictator for life and becoming increasingly autocratic, thus breaking Roman tradition.

 

[JamesHunter]

I can't see the plotters winning this civil war. They weren't prepared anything. Them hadn't even in plans to kill any others as Caesar and assumed that situation would return to normal old time business. Caesar would has still popular support and almost all legions would are loyal for him.

Agreed. At best they escape and do "King over the water," more likely they get dead. About the only thing it might do is reinforce any decision by Caesar (or his successors) not to seek "formal" Kingship, but as that happened OTL after his death (Emperor's didn't actually claim monarchy until the Dominate before that it was "Just the first citizen") that again changes nothing.

 

[Lalli]

I thought they would win due to Ceasar proclaiming himself dictator for life and becoming increasingly autocratic, thus breaking Roman tradition.

Wasn't Caesar declared as lifetime dictator already before the assassination? And Sulla was even more authotarian what Caesar would be even ITTL. Furthermore Augustus and Antony won civil war against Caesar's assassins despite them being even more ruthless than Sulla.

 

[bguy]

I thought they would win due to Ceasar proclaiming himself dictator for life and becoming increasingly autocratic, thus breaking Roman tradition.

Caesar's autocracy offended the Senate. It didn't bother the legions who mostly cared about having a general that could win battles and who made sure they were well rewarded for their service (and Caesar excelled in both regards). Thus the legions are going to stay loyal to Caesar.

Caesar has about 35 legions in service at the time of his death. (Plus approximately ten legions of recently retired veterans that he can easily call back to arms if he needs them.)
The anti-Caesarian forces at this time consist of the equivalent of maybe 9 legions: 7 with Sextus Pompey in Spain and 2 with Quintus Caecilius Bassus in Syria. (And Bassus' troops are themselves under siege by 6 legions of Caesarian troops.) Thus the conspirators would be horribly outnumbered in any military conflict. Caesar's forces are also much better equipped than any troops the conspirators would have (Sextus' force in particular is made up of lightly armed guerillas and definitely not equipped to legion standards), and the Caesarian forces also have a world class general in terms of Caesar who is far better than any commander the conspirators might have. (And even if something happens to Caesar, Marcus Antonius and Publius Ventidius Bassus are also better generals than anyone the conspirators have.)

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

Caesar's autocracy offended the Senate. It didn't bother the legions who mostly cared about having a general that could win battles and who made sure they were well rewarded for their service (and Caesar excelled in both regards). Thus the legions are going to stay loyal to Caesar.

Caesar has about 35 legions in service at the time of his death. (Plus approximately ten legions of recently retired veterans that he can easily call back to arms if he needs them.)
The anti-Caesarian forces at this time consist of the equivalent of maybe 9 legions: 7 with Sextus Pompey in Spain and 2 with Quintus Caecilius Bassus in Syria. (And Bassus' troops are themselves under siege by 6 legions of Caesarian troops.) Thus the conspirators would be horribly outnumbered in any military conflict. Caesar's forces are also much better equipped than any troops the conspirators would have (Sextus' force in particular is made up of lightly armed guerillas and definitely not equipped to legion standards), and the Caesarian forces also have a world class general in terms of Caesar who is far better than any commander the conspirators might have. (And even if something happens to Caesar, Marcus Antonius and Publius Ventidius Bassus are also better generals than anyone the conspirators have.)

Thank you two for correcting me.

 

[JamesHunter]

Wasn't Caesar declared as lifetime dictator already before the assassination? And Sulla was even more authotarian what Caesar would be even ITTL. Furthermore Augustus and Antony won civil war against Caesar's assassins despite them being even more ruthless than Sulla.

Yeah this is roughly fifty years to late for Roman democracy. Some form of monarchy based dictatorship was inevitable by 44bc it was just who took over and how powerful they became. Even if it took 17 more years the Empire was inevitable.

 

[Hearkener]

I thought they would win due to Ceasar proclaiming himself dictator for life and becoming increasingly autocratic, thus breaking Roman tradition.

Wasn't Caesar declared as lifetime dictator already before the assassination? And Sulla was even more authotarian what Caesar would be even ITTL. Furthermore Augustus and Antony won civil war against Caesar's assassins despite them being even more ruthless than Sulla.

Caesar's autocracy offended the Senate. It didn't bother the legions who mostly cared about having a general that could win battles and who made sure they were well rewarded for their service (and Caesar excelled in both regards). Thus the legions are going to stay loyal to Caesar.

I'd like to add to this that the Senate was far from a democratic or even populist force. It was, legally, just a comittee of old statesmen that was supposed to advice the various Roman assemblies and Tribunes. There's a theory out there that the Populares movement was really in opposition to the Senate's overreach of power ever since the Third Punic War. Whether you suscribe to this or not, sources seem to generally agree that public opinion in Rome heavily favored Caesar, and saw his assassins as self-interested murderers rather than national heroes.

My take on this is that the Senate wasn't hugely popular before the Civil War, and came to be seen as the agressor in the Caesar-Pompey conflict. Caesar managed to spin himself as a well-intentioned statesman, whom circumstances had forced into accepting dictatorial powers which he would of course use to restore Rome to the greatness it had possessed in the prelapsarian past. So his murder likely came off as a power-grab by opportunistic politicians.

 

[not livius]

What if despite still being ambushed and stabbed by a mob of senators, Caesar clings to life, nursed back to health in seclusion by loyalists?

I wonder how easy it would be to conceal the fact that he had survived though, and why any of his supporters would bother. Roman funerals for politicians were intensely public afffairs, and if he isn't having a big funeral for everyone to see no one will believe he's really dead. He could be out of communication for a while during his recovery, though, and that would create a lot of instability.

What it wouldn't do was help the assassins, at all. They are dead right away unless they flee from Rome: it isn't even a matter of getting Lepidus' legion to march into the city, there's no need for that. Caesar was incredibly popular with most of the ordinary people of Rome and they would be getting together into mobs and burning down the houses of the assassins as soon as they knew what had happened (as in OTL.) With Caesar still alive, even incommunicado, Antony has no need to make a compromise with them to let them back into the city and to take up the provincial positions Caesar had promised them. So there isn't even a civil war, really, they just get killed off as they get caught.

Dictators certainly tend to take a more paranoid bent after failed asassination-attempts. He may just spend a lot of time purging the Roman upper crust like Sulla did. This would of course push the Parthian campaign back quite some time, and Caesar was already pretty old when he died OTL.

Yes, although in a way it's a problem for Caesar, because one of his big pieces of evidence for why he was better than his opponents in Pompey's camp was his practice of clemency on the Romans he conquered -- he had welcomed a lot of former Pompeians back into Roman political life, and some of them ended up in the conspiracy against him (as did some of his long-time supporters.) So is he going to turn around and go full Sulla on them? it kind of undercuts his whole political persona, and he can't be too open about taking sole power without losing some of his popularity in the city. If he cracks down too hard he might just face another attempt in a year or two.

 

[JamesHunter]

I wonder how easy it would be to conceal the fact that he had survived though, and why any of his supporters would bother. Roman funerals for politicians were intensely public afffairs, and if he isn't having a big funeral for everyone to see no one will believe he's really dead. He could be out of communication for a while during his recovery, though, and that would create a lot of instability.

What it wouldn't do was help the assassins, at all. They are dead right away unless they flee from Rome: it isn't even a matter of getting Lepidus' legion to march into the city, there's no need for that. Caesar was incredibly popular with most of the ordinary people of Rome and they would be getting together into mobs and burning down the houses of the assassins as soon as they knew what had happened (as in OTL.) With Caesar still alive, even incommunicado, Antony has no need to make a compromise with them to let them back into the city and to take up the provincial positions Caesar had promised them. So there isn't even a civil war, really, they just get killed off as they get caught.



Yes, although in a way it's a problem for Caesar, because one of his big pieces of evidence for why he was better than his opponents in Pompey's camp was his practice of clemency on the Romans he conquered -- he had welcomed a lot of former Pompeians back into Roman political life, and some of them ended up in the conspiracy against him (as did some of his long-time supporters.) So is he going to turn around and go full Sulla on them? it kind of undercuts his whole political persona, and he can't be too open about taking sole power without losing some of his popularity in the city. If he cracks down too hard he might just face another attempt in a year or two.

He may be pragmatic, but while he can let off the hangers on anyone who actually used a knife has to die to protect him from repeats and charges of weakness. Possibly any who run past the Imperial borders aren't pursued but that's about it.

Also on the QT he might tone down some things that annoyed them, make a show of inclusion and consultation, ditch the red boots, stuff like that.

 

[Lalli]

I wonder how easy it would be to conceal the fact that he had survived though, and why any of his supporters would bother. Roman funerals for politicians were intensely public afffairs, and if he isn't having a big funeral for everyone to see no one will believe he's really dead. He could be out of communication for a while during his recovery, though, and that would create a lot of instability.

What it wouldn't do was help the assassins, at all. They are dead right away unless they flee from Rome: it isn't even a matter of getting Lepidus' legion to march into the city, there's no need for that. Caesar was incredibly popular with most of the ordinary people of Rome and they would be getting together into mobs and burning down the houses of the assassins as soon as they knew what had happened (as in OTL.) With Caesar still alive, even incommunicado, Antony has no need to make a compromise with them to let them back into the city and to take up the provincial positions Caesar had promised them. So there isn't even a civil war, really, they just get killed off as they get caught.



Yes, although in a way it's a problem for Caesar, because one of his big pieces of evidence for why he was better than his opponents in Pompey's camp was his practice of clemency on the Romans he conquered -- he had welcomed a lot of former Pompeians back into Roman political life, and some of them ended up in the conspiracy against him (as did some of his long-time supporters.) So is he going to turn around and go full Sulla on them? it kind of undercuts his whole political persona, and he can't be too open about taking sole power without losing some of his popularity in the city. If he cracks down too hard he might just face another attempt in a year or two.

Certainly he is going to execute plot leaders.He just can't allow them walk away since it would make him looking weak and far too soft and it would just encourage new assassination attempt. Of course he can't go with full mass killings but some have lost their heads.

 

[Hearkener]

Yes, although in a way it's a problem for Caesar, because one of his big pieces of evidence for why he was better than his opponents in Pompey's camp was his practice of clemency on the Romans he conquered -- he had welcomed a lot of former Pompeians back into Roman political life, and some of them ended up in the conspiracy against him (as did some of his long-time supporters.) So is he going to turn around and go full Sulla on them? it kind of undercuts his whole political persona, and he can't be too open about taking sole power without losing some of his popularity in the city. If he cracks down too hard he might just face another attempt in a year or two.

Honestly, I don't think a Caesar that was stabbed 23 times by some of his closest friends while many of his allies watched and did nothing will be particularily inclined to reason or clemency. In the wake of the attempt itself, any good will the conspirators had would fade in the face of the horrific breach of Mos Maiorum comitted. I think it would be a gradual disillusionment of ordinary Romans once the hot tempers have cooled.

 

[not livius]

He may be pragmatic, but while he can let off the hangers on anyone who actually used a knife has to die to protect him from repeats and charges of weakness. Possibly any who run past the Imperial borders aren't pursued but that's about it.

Certainly he is going to execute plot leaders.He just can't allow them walk away since it would make him looking weak and far too soft and it would just encourage new assassination attempt. Of course he can't go with full mass killings but some have lost their heads.

Honestly, I don't think a Caesar that was stabbed 23 times by some of his closest friends while many of his allies watched and did nothing will be particularily inclined to reason or clemency. In the wake of the attempt itself, any good will the conspirators had would fade in the face of the horrific breach of Mos Maiorum comitted.

Oh, yes, I agree with all of you that the conspirators themselves are going to be killed, one way or another. They aren't getting clemency! I wonder about his relationship with the rest of the Roman political class, though, because the conspirators were drawn from both his old supporters and his old opponents. Can he trust anyone now? Can he work with the Senate at all? Would he even want to try? He knows about the guys who actually stabbed him, but what about their friends and relatives? What about the rest of the Senate? If Decimus Brutus tried to kill him, why should he trust Antony or Lepidus?

I could see a Caesar who survived going back to the idea of kingship, actually, maybe with more popular support now that the senators have shown what they're really like.

 

[rgroberts]

I could see a Caesar who survived going back to the idea of kingship, actually, maybe with more popular support now that the senators have shown what they're really like.

This is a fascinating take.

While I'm of the school that Caesar didn't really want to be king any more than he really knew how to fix Rome's ills (evidenced by his attempt to adjust the Republic into something that could govern the empire, instead of slowly creating something new ala Augustus), I could see him still coming around to the idea.

After all, what's to stop him from thinking Roman senators killed their kings. Then, Roman senators tried to kill me even when I wasn't a king. It's not kingship that's the problem here, is it? That - plus a growing disregard for the Republic institutions that have failed him time and time again - could push him right into the purple.

You think Octavian fancies being a prince, or is Caesarion getting the nod?