In my opinion a communist Hungary could expect even worse relations with its neighbours and with the World overall.
Its only friend could be the Soviet Union. The Germans and the Italians would never support any border revision in favour of a communist state neither the British and French.
In 30-ties very likely.
Like this, after the München agreement, when Czechoslovakia breaks up, we could see a much larger Slovakia emerging possibly possessing Carpathian Ruthenia too. Still, it would be a German puppet.
Well as Vienna agreement was again not very just to Slovaks, Slovakia should be larger anyway then it was after Vienna. As to Slovakia holding on Carpathian Ruthennia? There is no way for more then one reason. Slovaks themselves were not interested in territory where except border regions around Uh river no Slovaks were living. Not in OTL conditions. On territories acquired by Hungary on other side over 0.5 millions Slovaks stayed so of course they were interested in that or at least into more for them favorable revision.
Second reason is that when in March 14 1939 Slovakia declared independence next day Ruthenia declared it's own.
After the German invasion of Poland, its very likely, that Hungary would be invaded shortly after, maybe just before Barbarossa. It could mean some territorial gains for Romania and maybe Slovakia, but it definately would be reversed after the victory of Allies.
I presume we are talking what if Hungary was communist. Well Slovakia wouldn't be much interested in acquiring more territory. Maybe, just maybe would try to perused Hungarian Slovaks to move to Slovakia. At least some 120 000 there. Have seen even larger numbers.
Yes, something like that, but maybe the Sweden might be a better comparison.
However much different geographical position.
I wouldn't say that Hungary was unfriendly towards Germany, since it actually signed both the Anti-Comintern Pact and the Tripartite Pact, and it let the German troops through its territory. With a relation like this my suggested cooperation might be possible in my opinion. Still the Germans possibly would stand high demands for it. Maybe in a latter phase of the war would it be more feasible(1943,'44).
I was operating with fact that Hungary would try to stay neutral. That would be considered unfriendly to Germans.
Neutral Hungary just couldn't allow transport of German troops through Hungary to Bulgaria for attack on Yugoslavia and Greece. It could not allow transfer of German troops to Romania for prepration for operation Barbarossa and definitely it could not allow transfer of troops and material through it's territory after operation Barbarossa started if it wanted to be seen as neutral. That would Germans consider to be unfriendly.
In the argument of armament, the most important factor is time. Actually the Hungarians had a rearmament program, the so called "Győri program" (it's in the tags too). The budget of the Győri program originally were set at 1 million Hungarian Pengős (600 000 to the army and 400 000 to infrastructure and others), but it constantly grew, and already in 1940 only the army got 1,6 million Pengős in itself. If such a trend takes place in this TL too, the five years of intensive development of the army could result in a quite muscular Hungarian army in the late war.
Don't know about Gyori program. However there was Elod Plan from 1932 which planned for expansion of Hungarian Armed forces. Not fully implemented in 1940 was revised into Huba I following Huba II in 1941 and Huba III in 1943.
OTL Hungary manufactured impressive number of tanks and SPG - 531, however most of them were basically lighter types. Plus Armored cars and SP AA Nimrod.
On other side Hungary imported 443 tanks and SPG from Germany. Some were lighter types as Pz 38, Pz II.
With fighter planes before the war and it is early years Hungary imported from Italy or manufactured based on Italian license 437 fighter planes. However from Germans it acquired (or manufactured German designs) some 821 fighter planes.
Base on numbers I have seen similar can be said for AT and AA guns as well as partially for field artillery.
My believe if Hungary wanted to go as neutral many of this would not arrive. Meaning despite various modernization plans Hungarian army would be very likely equipped with less advanced weapons. Yes there would not be casualties from Eastern front so no equipment loss but these weapons would be in 1944 anyway have much lower value. Also, Hungarian army and officer corps would lack combat experience from Eastern front. And this is very important! As an example I will throw in again Slovak national uprising best results in defense and attack had Slovak officers with experience from Eastern Front. Fought on much different terrain then Hungary has took Germans 2 months to defeat, but well they didn't throw everything at it anyway as it was after 2 Slovak division were eliminated in Eastern Slovakia by quick German reaction basically in their garrisons. Uprising was then concentrated into hilly region. Biggest concern for German was to open railway Zilina-Kosice (Zsolna-Kassa).
Since Hungary was a de facto ally of Germany (even though not in war), they could, and actually did let the German troops and logistics to cross the country.
But then they wouldn't be neutral especially after operation Barbarossa started! To be neutral they needed to keep away from Barbarossa. Germans could not have that. Germans needed to pull them into the war (and that's why around bombing of Kosice are so much conspiracy theories - Germans did, Romanians, have seen even Slovaks blamed based on Avia B-71 being in Slovak Air Force - but only 1 pcs. or Soviets wanted to attack Slovak town Presov (Eperjes) and got lost - Presov and Kosice are only some 20-30 km apart and both towns have some hills around them, both had railway station and church and center of the town, Soviet bomber crews could get easily confused). It's my strong believe that if Hungarian government indeed try to go this way there would be either occupation or early Ferenc Szalasi government (or somebody similar).
Interesting scenario I was playing with was if Hungarians, Romanians and Slovaks overcome their animosity and managed to coordinate their efforts in August 1944. That would really screwed up Germans and Hungary may even be able to keep some of territory with clear Hungarian majority in Slovakia and maybe even Romania. It wouldn't be post 1938, 1939 or post 1940 borders but well I can see for Example Komarom and region around it, some areas around Ipel (Ipoly) river and some areas in south east of Slovakia around Ujhely. Kassa would be very likely handed back to Czechoslovakia as population there was more evenly divided between Hungarians and Slovaks, Jews and Germans being smaller but still significant number. (That's was kind of smart move on Czechoslovak part when Jews were allowed to claim their own nationality. As most of them spoke as their major language Hungarian or German it lowered statistical numbers of Hungarians or Germans. That's what you need to keep in mind when looking at higher numbers of Hungarians in Slovakia claimed by Hungary and lower claimed by Czechoslovakia. Well another was people from mixed families and thus bilingual. They claimed Hungarian nationality before 1918, Slovak nationality in period 1918-1938/9, then Hungarian in 1938-1945 and then back Slovak
) kind of interesting part of our History especially for me. My father was born in Hungarian kingdom in January 1945 shortly before Hungarian and German troops were pushed out from the town. Basically I can ask for Hungarian citizenship by Hungarian laws, right?
Central European countries with Germany as overlord of European continent after fall of France didn't had much chances to stay neutral. You can probably play these scenario if France didn't fell and managed to stop Germans though. Of course then there wouldn't be Second Vienna award if Hungary wanted to stay neutral.
Just my fillér or two to discussion.