WI: Confederate Government-in-Exile?

[Gukpard]

Most likely Brazil, but they would not last long, their best case scenario is to have the USA to pardon them in the late 19th century and so they move back to the USA

In the worst case scenario the brazilian government returns them back to the US immediately and they are arrested

The most likely is that they would remain as the unrecognized government in exile for some time (this could be a good movie) until they drop the idea in the 1880s and settle down here

 

[nandalf]

I doubt Don Pedro II would aaacept the confederate government,first he wanted a gradual ending of Slavary,second:the princess imperial Isabel was at that time against slavery,although her positinioning it wasn´t known by the public,and her husband the count Deú was very much and publically anti-slavery,third: i realy doubt don Don Pedro II would give support to the slave faction,all his life he strived to be unparcial and fair.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Because during the later half of the 19th century, the Cape Colony was mostly moderate Afrikaners and British citizens while the radical Afrikaners had left the colony on the Great Trek to set up Boer Republics.

Once Britain conquered the Boer Republics however, radical Afrikaners ended up making up the majority of the white voting population in South Africa while Great Britain around the early 20th century began to give the South Africans more autonomy.

Basically majority of whites being racist plus self Government equals apartheid

Great summary. But- just why did the Boers radicalize and become racist? Surely there's a backstory to it besides the usual "conquering settler people gets annoyed while warring with native peoples."

 

[Czar Kaizer]

Great summary. But- just why did the Boers radicalize and become racist? Surely there's a backstory to it besides the usual "conquering settler people gets annoyed while warring with native peoples."

The Cape Afrikaner's were never moderate. The only thing that made them moderate was that they accepted British rule but otherwise they shared the same beliefs, language and religion as the Boers in the Free State and the ZAR. In other words they were just as racist as everyone else, most were former slaveholders.
It was the British elite who imposed a more liberal political system on Boers, something which the Cape Afrikaners never liked. And when they began dominating political offices they started slowly pushing up the franchise and imposing more restrictions on non whites in the Cape. And they were supported by English farmers in the Eastern Cape who feared competing with prosperous black farmer's.

 

[ben0628]

Great summary. But- just why did the Boers radicalize and become racist? Surely there's a backstory to it besides the usual "conquering settler people gets annoyed while warring with native peoples."

Dutch reform church + conservative lifestyle + living in a wilderness full of the opposite race which is unfriendly towards your existence in their land..

 

[James Ricker]

The United States would place a large reward for the Confederate leaders Dead or Alive no questions asked.

 

[Citycat]

A TL where the Confederates set up shop in Spanish Cuba would be very interesting. The Confederates use this as a base to train and support guerillas against the US in the Reconstruction Era. They also help Southern refugees flee to Cuba.

Spain did not have good relations with the US for much of the 19th century so could tolerate this.

 

[sloreck]

Guerilla warfare against Union troops in the south won't fly. Guerillas are now criminals and will get hung in job lots. Any locals who cooperate get jail or worse, and confiscation. No sea for those CS fish to swim in, and by the end of the war desertion of exhausted soldiers who just wanted to go home was a big problem for the CSA - why would they then support guerillas? If Cuba as seen as a base for this, with the cooperation of the local (Spanish) authorities, the Spanish government will rather rapidly get a cease or else note from the USA. The Spanish navy in 1868 is in no better shape to fight the USN than it was in 1898. Cuba (and Puerto Rico) cannot be defended against the USA. Spain in 1868 is even less willing to lose Cuba than in 1898, so they most assuredly won't go to war with the USA to support a CSA "government in exile" launching and supporting attacks on the USA.

 

[Wendell]

I'm fond of the scenario where we see in North America something akin to the China situation. That is to say, the regime in Havana claims to govern the entire confederacy, but has control only of islands, and the regime, despite its claims to mainland area has in all but name gone native due to changing realities.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I like the idea of them setting up in Spain, if they keep on trying to stir revolts you could see relations between the US and Spain sour and you may get an earlier Spanish-American war. With some or all of the exiles in Cuba that would make a drive for the US to invade there to get at them at some point. Maybe under Grant? And with a Cuban revolt you would either get an independent Cuba or an annexed Cuba as a state. It will also keep the US military bigger than normal since they would be facing a continual threat, and potential worry of one or more European aiding the Confederate exiles militarily. Even better if some of the biggest supporters followed the government into exile you may have less internal problems with leaders like Forest gone.

The US can put tons of pressure on Spain more than most any other European nation, considering Cuba is uniquely vulnerable to American threats. And if Confederates try to help the Cubans gain independence in their war against Spain (they have veteran leaders and soldiers after all), then Spain just got a huge boost they didn't have OTL since the United States will be glad to finance the suppression of the Cubans in any way possible. If for some reason Spain still can't suppress the Cuban/CSA alliance, then yes, there will be a military invasion.

Most likely Brazil, but they would not last long, their best case scenario is to have the USA to pardon them in the late 19th century and so they move back to the USA

In the worst case scenario the brazilian government returns them back to the US immediately and they are arrested

The most likely is that they would remain as the unrecognized government in exile for some time (this could be a good movie) until they drop the idea in the 1880s and settle down here

Plus the US can put pressure on Brazil by cutting off trade. Not good to piss off a trade partner like that for a literally Lost Cause.

 

[ben0628]

Perhaps Confederates settle in Cuba, but ally with the Spanish monarch. Spain supports CSA government in exile, well trained ex-confederate soldiers suppress Cuban revolutionaries. Win win situation.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Clearly, the most likely answer is 'Hell'....

 

[David T]

Do we make a distinction here between *recognizing* the Confederate government-in-exile (which it is hard to see any nation doing, since none of them recognized the Confederacy) and simply allowing the Confederate leaders to stay there and in effect saying "they can *call* themselves the Confederate government-in-exile but we are simply letting them stay here as individuals"?

 

[Saphroneth]

And because Brazil welcomed Confederate exiles in OTL.

Not just that, they claimed to be the legitimate Confederate government in exile...

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

I'm going to regret joining this conversation... Did the idea of a government in exile even exist at the time?

 

[mrmandias]

You had the Stuarts in France for awhile

 

[Fiver]

Not just that, they claimed to be the legitimate Confederate government in exile...

I'd really like to see a source that shows any Confederates that moved to Brazil claimed to be "the legitimate Confederate government in exile". The Confederate President didn't move to Brazil. Nor the Vice President. Nor the President pro tempore of the Senate, Robert Hunter. Nor the Confederate Speaker of the House, Thomas Bocock.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Perhaps Confederates settle in Cuba, but ally with the Spanish monarch. Spain supports CSA government in exile, well trained ex-confederate soldiers suppress Cuban revolutionaries. Win win situation.

Then the US gets really pissed off with Spain and starts seriously funding and supplying said Cuban revolutionaries. During one of Spain's many, many periods of domestic chaos during the following decades, the US instigates a war: even willing to offer the Cubans freedom. And if they manage to get their machetes on the traitorious scum/their oppressors before American authorities can get them extradited for trial... well, its not the government's fault.

 

[Saphroneth]

I'm going to regret joining this conversation... Did the idea of a government in exile even exist at the time?

Yes. As one example, the entire Portugese court decamped to Brazil at one point in the Napoleonic Wars.

 

[ben0628]

Yes. As one example, the entire Portugese court decamped to Brazil at one point in the Napoleonic Wars.

That's a Portuguese colony though, not an independent nation