WI: Confederate Government-in-Exile?

[GlobalHumanism]

Say Jefferson Davis chooses not to dissolve the 2nd Confederate Congress on May 5th, 1865 and instead opts to flee, with his cabinet and some willing representatives in tow, to a friendly nation in Europe? Their goal being the continuation of the Congressional Confederate government in-exile.
Which nation could they plausibly go too, and what sort of an effect could they have had on the US diplomatically from abroad?

 

[The Tai-Pan]

I have a hard time imaging a place they can go where the USA will not find them. And even if they do, I doubt they'd have much effect. The USA military is just too strong and too willing to use force (And the South too divided) for any guerrilla type movement to take off.

 

[Byzantion]

I have a hard time imaging a place they can go where the USA will not find them. And even if they do, I doubt they'd have much effect. The USA military is just too strong and too willing to use force (And the South too divided) for any guerrilla type movement to take off.

A William Walker like filibuster state in South Central America maybe or a protectorate in Brazil ? Confederales in Brazil are a real term !
Maybe even remnant Confederate armies cross the Rio Grande and join Maximillian´s forces in hope of establishing themselves somwhere in Mexico.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Of the choices, it would be France. Napoleon III would have liked to have an additional piece to play in the diplomatic chess game as he attempted to hold onto Mexico, as in: "Stop sending rifles to the republican partisans in Mexico and I'll kick out the Confederate government-in-exile." He wouldn't have officially recognized them, though. Just would have let them set up shop.

 

[Skallagrim]

I have a hard time imaging a place they can go where the USA will not find them.

They wouldn't be hiding. They'd be in another country, presumably one that won't extradite them to the USA. There is no way that the USA is going to undertake military or police action in a European country to capture a Confederate government in exile. Such an act would be beyond the pale, and would result in war with the country in question, and possibly with other European countries-- if only to make sure that the USA will never even think about pulling a stunt like that again.

And even if they do, I doubt they'd have much effect. The USA military is just too strong and too willing to use force (And the South too divided) for any guerrilla type movement to take off.

That last part is true, of course, but I repeat that there is no way that the USA is going to undertake military or police action in a European country to capture a Confederate government in exile. So there would be a government in exile, and it would be utterly powerless.


In any case... I don't think any European country will be happy to host these guys. Nor would Europe be their logical choice. Most likely, they'd flee to Brazil. Because slavery is still legal there, and they like that. And because Brazil welcomed Confederate exiles in OTL. A lasting effect might be a bigger community of Confederados in Brazil, both because most of those who fled to other countries (such as Mexico etc.) in OTL might in this case 'rally to the flag' and follow the exiled government to Brazil, and because a number of those who stayed in the USA in OTL might instead by convinced to go into exile if such a move is led by what they perceive as their rightful government.

 

[Lalli]

I can't see any country taking CSA exile government under their protection. They hardly want ruin relationships with USA and Confederate cause was already totally lost. Not any idea support such. And hardly Confederates can even flee anywhere anyway. Even if CSA government is able to found government-in-exile, it hardly would be long live.

 

[dcharles]

A William Walker like filibuster state in South Central America maybe or a protectorate in Brazil ? Confederales in Brazil are a real term !
Maybe even remnant Confederate armies cross the Rio Grande and join Maximillian´s forces in hope of establishing themselves somwhere in Mexico.

Some of the irreconcilables, like Early. Shelby, Price, and Matthew Fontaine Maury and son, did live in exile in Mexico for a time. About 10,000-20,000 Americans (mostly former Confederates) immigrated to Brazil in the aftermath of the war as well. So I would put my money on either of those places.

 

[Griffon]

A William Walker like filibuster state in South Central America maybe or a protectorate in Brazil ? Confederales in Brazil are a real term !
Maybe even remnant Confederate armies cross the Rio Grande and join Maximillian´s forces in hope of establishing themselves somwhere in Mexico.

I would agree -- Mexico seems like the most likely option, or perhaps something in the Caribbean

 

[cerebropetrologist]

I can't see any country taking CSA exile government under their protection. They hardly want ruin relationships with USA and Confederate cause was already totally lost.

You'd be surprised at how strong the support for political refugees- even former government members- was in this period. The British weren't concerned about offending the Austrians when they took in Lajos Kossuth, the French when they took in Louis Blanc, or the Union when they took in Judah P. Benjamin. When French exiles in Britain try to assassinate Napoleon III (the Orsini affair), the British government loses office because it tries to pass a bill to crack down on their activities.

That said, I don't think that Confederate exiles would have enjoyed Britain- the anti-slavery, pro-Union forces were too well organised. They would probably get similar treatment to the Austrian general Haynau, who in 1850 got beaten with brooms and smeared with manure.

 

[DarkLordPotter]

I would agree -- Mexico seems like the most likely option, or perhaps something in the Caribbean

I doubt Mexico will take them. Especially due to the Mexican-American War.

 

[Tryglaw]

Kind of surprised nobody mentioned South Africa...

 

[cerebropetrologist]

Kind of surprised nobody mentioned South Africa...

Can't see them finding the Cape Colony hospitable, when it had allowed black people to vote on the same terms as white people since 1853. To put that in context, in 1821 New York state imposed a $250 property qualification for black voters and upheld the discriminatory requirement in three referenda (1846, 1860 and 1869!). The Confederates could go inland to the Boer republics, of course, but it isolates them from both the Southern states and Europe. A bit like the Republic of China setting up shop in Alice Springs.

 

[Shinsu]

Belize had a good portion of Confederates that went to it IOTL. Of all the places I would imagine either Belize or Brazil (the Brazilian government had some large issues with the confederate population though from my readings though) rather then Europe itself.

 

[Anaxagoras]

I doubt Mexico will take them. Especially due to the Mexican-American War.

Which Mexico? In 1865, this is not an easy question to answer.

 

[dmg86]

one Confederate General sold his artillery in Mexico for $20000 in gold if I remember correctly.

 

[DarkLordPotter]

Which Mexico? In 1865, this is not an easy question to answer.

Both I guess.

 

[Sicarius]

I'm not sure Emperor Max would let them chill in Mexico even if they asked. The US's posturing was enough to end intervention by Europe, and Mexico is worlds less well equipped than Europe. Too, Max is staring down the barrel of a guerrilla revolt that will ultimately claim his life. The man's got enough problems. I can't find anything on his views regarding slavery, but he was a rather liberal fella (by the 19th century meaning) for his class and times and I doubt he'd favor it.

A fun idea that may or may not be workable is an alliance of convenience between the Confederados and the rebels. The movement was very diffuse, so it could just be one of the local warlords. Since Mr. J himself relied on the favor of the United States, I don't think they'd manage a top level alliance.

 

[dmg86]

The Confederacy did have some relations with some of the Mexican leaders along the Rio Grande to help to get supplies thought the blockade.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I'm not sure Emperor Max would let them chill in Mexico even if they asked. The US's posturing was enough to end intervention by Europe, and Mexico is worlds less well equipped than Europe. Too, Max is staring down the barrel of a guerrilla revolt that will ultimately claim his life. The man's got enough problems. I can't find anything on his views regarding slavery, but he was a rather liberal fella (by the 19th century meaning) for his class and times and I doubt he'd favor it.

A fun idea that may or may not be workable is an alliance of convenience between the Confederados and the rebels. The movement was very diffuse, so it could just be one of the local warlords. Since Mr. J himself relied on the favor of the United States, I don't think they'd manage a top level alliance.

Max would probably welcome Confederate colonists with open arms. He needed every potential settler he could get, and say...50,000 Confederate exiles setting up shop is a pretty big boost to developing roots in Mexico, and the US would have to decide on how to best evict them without an invasion. Though they might want to go after the Confederates in exile, they'd be a pretty big bargaining chip between Washington and Paris as both sides fumble about on the Mexican question.

 

[Don Corleone]

I have a hard time imaging a place they can go where the USA will not find them. And even if they do, I doubt they'd have much effect. The USA military is just too strong and too willing to use force (And the South too divided) for any guerrilla type movement to take off.

We didn't have a global reach back then.