WI: China wins the Battle of Talas

Night Gaul

In 751, two of the greatest powers of the age squared off in the valley of the Talas River. On one side was the Abbasid Caliphate, aided by its ally the Tibetan Empire. On the other was the Tang dynasty, aided by Ferghana and some Karluk mercenaries. After several days of stalemate, the Karluks defected to the Abbasid side, causing a Tang-Ferghana rout.

What if things had gone the other way, and the Tang had won? Judging by what I've read, I doubt the immediate effects would be as dramatic as some have claimed, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were significant butterflies.
 

Richard V

It would not change history at all. In 4 years the An Lushan Rebellion would wreck the Tang dynasty. It would lose the entire western half of the empire, more than a third of its population, almost collapse entirely and transform into the isolationist, conservative China of the Song. Talas is one of the most overrated decisive battles ever.
 

Miguel Lanius

Banned
I think the big change is that victory will stop the advance of Islam in Central Asia. Which means a less islamic Central Asia in general... at least for now.
 

John7755 يوحنا

Richard V said:
It would not change history at all. In 4 years the An Lushan Rebellion would wreck the Tang dynasty. It would lose the entire western half of the empire, more than a third of its population, almost collapse entirely and transform into the isolationist, conservative China of the Song. Talas is one of the most overrated decisive battles ever.
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Is this a given? An Lushan was the Anxi protector general and the rebellion is called more correctly, the Anxi incident. It is derived from a rebellion and attempt by Anxi protector An Lushan to take control of the Tang Dynasty. If the Anxi protectorate gains a victory at Talas, this alters the course of events as the Anxi generalship gains more lands and prestige and is not disrespected by the Tang central court.
 

Monter

John7755 يوحنا said:
Is this a given? An Lushan was the Anxi protector general and the rebellion is called more correctly, the Anxi incident. It is derived from a rebellion and attempt by Anxi protector An Lushan to take control of the Tang Dynasty. If the Anxi protectorate gains a victory at Talas, this alters the course of events as the Anxi generalship gains more lands and prestige and is not disrespected by the Tang central court.
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An Lushan powerbase was in the Northeast at Pinglu (Liaoning), in fact he named his dynasty Yan because it was based on the territory of the old Yan kingdom, he was never Protector General of the West.
 

John7755 يوحنا

Monter said:
An Lushan powerbase was in the Northeast at Pinglu (Liaoning), in fact he named his dynasty Yan because it was based on the territory of the old Yan kingdom, he was never Protector General of the West.
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Oh? But was he not connected to it? I was under the conception that the Anxi title to the rebellion referred to this relation. Was he also not of Anxi extract?
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

The Song were neither isolationist nor conservative and this is the sort of thing that could butterfly both them and the An Lushan rebellion as well.

Losing the battle could also affect the Abbasid Caliphate, as they had just replaced the Ummayyads and had not consolidated their power. According to the wikipedia article it was to consolidate their power was why the launched an offensive into Centra Asia in the first place.
 

generalurist

The topic of the An Lushan rebellion makes me wonder though: Had it not happened, how far into central asia could the Tang have extended their power?
 

Richard V

John7755 يوحنا said:
Oh? But was he not connected to it? I was under the conception that the Anxi title to the rebellion referred to this relation. Was he also not of Anxi extract?
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The An Lushan Rebellion is also known as the An-Shi Rebellion, this has nothing to do with the Anxi region. Shi is the surname of another guy who led the rebellion after An Lushan died.
 

Richard V

generalurist said:
The topic of the An Lushan rebellion makes me wonder though: Had it not happened, how far into central asia could the Tang have extended their power?
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I think at most they could extend to the Caspian and the borders of the Khazar Khaganate. But most likely they were already at their maximum extent. Still, sustained diplomatic contact with Constantinople via the Volga and Don would be possible had the Tang retained their borders longer. It is thought that Justinian II sent a mission to China to find an ally against the Arab invasion. Perhaps after Talas the Tang emperor might be more receptive.

Without the rebellion the Tang empire would fight numerous battles with the Abbasids in Central Asia. Some sort of accommodation would eventually be reached. There would be extensive trade and diplomatic contact during the era of the Islamic Golden Age and the Song Renaissance. With a three way intrigue between China, the Caliphate and Byzantines, Central Asia would be a fascinating place. Who knows, the region might still become Islamic in the long run, but the world would look very different.
 
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Heaven'sFall

Richard V said:
I think at most they could extend to the Caspian and the borders of the Khazar Khaganate. But most likely they were already at their maximum extent. Still, sustained diplomatic contact with Constantinople via the Volga and Don would be possible had the Tang retained their borders longer. It is thought that Justinian II sent a mission to China to find an ally against the Arab invasion. Perhaps after Talas the Tang emperor might be more receptive.

Without the rebellion the Tang empire would fight numerous battles with the Abbasids in Central Asia. Some sort of accommodation would eventually be reached. There would be extensive trade and diplomatic contact during the era of the Islamic Golden Age and the Song Renaissance. With a three way intrigue between China, the Caliphate and Byzantines, Central Asia would be a fascinating place. Who knows, the region might still become Islamic in the long run, but the world would look very different.
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They probably try to restored the Sassanid using Pirooz grandson, who I remember probably accompanied the Turgesh Turk's during the Battle of the Day of Thirst. From there, the Tang would probably used them as some sort of puppet states to increase their influence in Mid East.
 

Fmvm

generalurist said:
The topic of the An Lushan rebellion makes me wonder though: Had it not happened, how far into central asia could the Tang have extended their power?
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I don't think they could go much further atleast not with the tibettan empire in the way, the tibettans were the biggest torn in the tangs side the hexi corridor isnt that wide, they captured the gilgit valley from the tang and the tarim basin multiple times. Although if the tang can make the tibettan empire implode earlier it might be different.
for visualization
 

Black Prince of Britannia

Richard V said:
. In 4 years the An Lushan Rebellion would wreck the Tang dynasty
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True, an often quoted reason for Tang retreat from central Asia was the need to recall the remaining Anxi troops back to quell the Anshu rebellion (and all those crack troops were unfortunately defeated).
The most difference it could make is a larger contingent sent by the Anxi Circuit to possibly facilitate an earlier defeat of An Lushan, although it is unlikely as the OTL defeat was more attributed to political machinations more than anything

John7755 يوحنا said:
If the Anxi protectorate gains a victory at Talas, this alters the course of events as the Anxi generalship gains more lands and prestige and is not disrespected by the Tang central court.
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So a everybody else already corrected you about Anshi vs Anxi, but just know that the Tang did make a separate Circuit of Bosi (Persia) supposedly for the purpose of reestablishing Sassanid rule before the Anshi rebellion destroyed any hopes, so any land west of Anxi probably would've been headed by that separate Circuit instead.
 
LostInNewDelhi

LostInNewDelhi

John7755 يوحنا said:
Oh? But was he not connected to it? I was under the conception that the Anxi title to the rebellion referred to this relation. Was he also not of Anxi extract?
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Well... he was a Sogdian who used Sogdian titles along his Chinese ones. So he was a man of the west, though he came from lands beyond Anxi. But yes, his powerbase was in Liaoning as mentioned by others.
 

Silver01

if the an lushan rebellion still happens , nothing really changes , but maybe if the defeat is total , it could affect the central asian kingdoms and turks views on the power of the caliphate and it migth loose prestige .

this combined with Constantines V victories agianst the arabs , migth cause a rebellion as the abassids would get defeated in both east and west in a close time period (heck Constantine the same year would capture Theodosiopolis (Erzurum) and Melitene (Malatya), which he demolished.

and assuming the tang do some damage as well in these 4 years maybe do some damage . yeah i see a rebelion being a possibility
 
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