I rather suspect this is where the French Imperial Guard Corps/Army will come into play and prevent the otherwise German win
Why the Chinese play cricket (an Imperial Federation timeline)
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- Start date
To be honest I think a quick knockout unlikely. The BEF amounted to six infantry and one four brigade cavalry Division, though at Mons I believe it two of the infantry Divisions and one of the four cavalry brigades hadn't reached the front. With Germany throwing in 86 infantry and ten cavalry Divisions, and France 71 infantry and 10 cavalry Divisions, the BEF was a drop in the bucket.
Plus as with the OTL, the Germans ITTL are going with the Schleiffen plan, which I'm pretty sure just wouldn't work regardless. The plan was fatally flawed from the start. Not enough troops in the sweep through Belgium, insufficient logistic support, trying to push too far too fast, poor communications, command too centralised, lack of reconnaissance and the Belgian forts won't be reduced quickly enough (and since the war starts in 1913 ITTL, the two mobile 42cm siege howitzers won't be ready, so they could hold out a little longer). Mind you, they got close at Charleroi.
Certainly will be a factor, in the OTL the Troupes Coloniales deployed three colonial infantry divisions as part of the French army. ITTL, the Imperial Guard/Colonial Army deploy two guard infantry, five colonial infantry divisions plus two guard cavalry and two colonial cavalry brigades. Doesn't quite make up the BEF numbers and not quite as high quality (though close and far better than the regular French units), but goes a long way.
But I am gaming it out, so far it's hard to tell. The Belgian forts held out an extra two days and the initial slaughter due to Offensive à Outrance is a little lower (thank you Napoleon IV for getting rid of the "woo hoo here I am" French uniform). Plus the Emperor has intervened almost immediately to put a stop to the lunacy of launching infantry assaults without artillery support (offensive à Outrance is one thing, but that was just pure criminal negligence).
However very much up in the air, Joffre still ignored the possibility of a German move through Belgium, despite the fact several months before the war the Danes handed him a copy of the entire German plan (passed on to them by a sympathetic German officer with a Slesviger Danish* wife, but that is part of an entirely different ITTL story).
* I use Slesviger when referring to the Danish minority in Germany, Schleswig and Schleswiger when referring to the former duchy as part of the German Empire and its German inhabitants.
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ITTL the Empire's goals in the Great War will be pretty much a continuation of British policy in Europe throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, with a few extras.
1) Preserve the European balance of power. This means they will not want to see either the Entente or Central Powers achieve a crushing victory allowing the to dominate the continent.
2) Keep the Russians out of the Mediterranean. This one involves preventing them gaining control or even free passage through the Turkish Straits.
3) Keep the Germans bottled up in the North Sea. So preserving Belgian neutrality and preventing Germany gaining any strategic colonies in Africa will big red lines.
4) Protect the Suez canal. This means keeping the Middle East out of Great Power hands. This will reinforced by the need to protect the Persian and Mesopotamian oil fields.
5) Keep the genie of nationalism firmly in its bottle. The Empire has more than enough problems with nationalism in the colonies, giving them encouragement will want to be avoided.
6) Prevent Europe destroying itself. Despite the growing economic focus on Asia, the Pacific, South America and the Empire itself, Europe is still a huge market and a bankrupt Europe can't buy Imperial goods.
Yes, if the US enters early on the Entente side as they did the 3rd iteration, then yes their incentive to put boots on the ground will go way down. But if the war evolves to the point where the European balance of power can not be preserved (priority 1), then the Empire is almost certain to want a seat at the table in the peace settlement. This kind of requires having put those boots on the ground.
Looks like the old approach of propping up the Ottomans is still fore square and centre given the Empire goals you have spelt out
But they still have to balance it with keeping them weak enough that Egypt and suez canal are not threatened
Interesting , i admit my knoledge of ww1 isnt great , but still in the long run wouldnt germany win if france stood alone in the western front ? i know that germany had a population advantage in relation to the stagnat french one , although if france can hold for some time , the british could intervene later and force a peace .
Unlike the OTL Imperial policy toward Europe has remained unaltered from the 19th century. ITTL the rise of Germany as a naval power has been met by simply building more ships. By 1913 the Empire will have laid down 33 Dreadnoughts and 12 battlecruisers against Germany's 21 and 7. And the next biggest navy is the US with 16 dreadnoughts and 4 battlecruisers, so only four ships off the two power standard.
And that is the tricky part. The ideal would be to separate off the Arab regions as client states while strengthening the Turkish heartland.
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Yes, if they have to fight on their own, the French will eventually go under, but they can hold out two to three years. This is why the possibility of an early US entry is so important. But if the US don't enter, one of two things is almost certain to happen. The first is the Empire brokers a peace deal using the threat of intervention to force the Germans to the table. This would be the Empire's preferred option. The second is the Empire enters the war to prevent a French collapse. This is probably the more likely option.
The key year will be 1915. By that point it will be clear the French can't last but they won't be out of the fight. Plus that's when the Russian to railway to Narvik will be completed. This gives the Empire two years to prepare for intervention and it's most likely they'll be following Corbett's naval strategy rather than the OTL continental strategy.
I'd imagine that if the germans don't go through Belgium as well then they would struggle far more to break through the main core French territory with a shorter front.
Look forward to seeing the rest!
July-Sept 1908: Young Turks
~July-Sept 1908: Young Turks
July 1908: Xianfa Emperor Zaitian's brother Zaifeng, has been serving as an officer in the Royal Navy since 1901. However he has long expressed his desire to return to China and continue his service in the Xianfa Navy, something thus far blocked by his brother wishing him to gain further military experience. However, with Zaifeng now having accumulated over seven years experience, his wish is finally granted and he resigns from the Royal Navy, entering the Xianfa Navy as a First Lieutenant, initially posted to the armoured cruiser Hai Nan.
July 1908: Since the signing of the Anglo-Russian Accord last year, concerns have been growing in the Ottoman Empire regarding Russian designs on Ottoman territory, with many in the Ottoman army fearing a potential Anglo-Russian alliance. These concerns have led a group of young officers in the Third Army based in Salonika, headed by Ismail Enver, to begin plotting revolution. The officers, part of the Young Turk movement, desert the army to begin raising guerilla resistance to the autocratic government of Sultan Abdul Hamid II. In an effort to suppress this growing movement the Sultan dispatches Shemsi Pasha crush the rebels. In a clash Shemsi Pasha is killed and his troops defect to the rebels.
July 1908: The death of Shemsi Pasha has greatly emboldened the Young Turk movement and resulted in the spread of the revolution to the Ottoman Second Army in Edirne. Led by Ismail Enver, the rebels march on Constantinople, demanding a restoration of the 1876 constitution. Unable to challenge the approaching troops, Sultan Abdul Hamid capitulates, restoring the constitution and thus beginning the Second Ottoman Constitutional Era.
August 1908: In response to the US Banking Crisis of 1907, a US business delegation led by Frank Vanderlip meets with leading Japanese Financiers, including Taka Kawada, Shibusawa Eiichi, Takuma Dan and Takamine Mitsui with the aim of capitalising on the growing friendships between the US and Japan in an effort to stabilise the volatile US stock market. This will mark the beginning of concerted effort by both US and Japanese business interests to integrate their respective economies.
August 1908: The destroyers and destroyer leaders ordered over the previous three years have proved to be expensive, fragile and having only limited endurance due to high fuel consumption, with the Cricket class coastal destroyers of limited utility due to their size, the 1908/09 Royal Naval estimates abandon First Sea Lord John Fisher's obsession with speed. The navy calls for four new dreadnought, an additional battlecruiser, eight light cruisers and twenty destroyers, However, faced with the high cost of the ambitious social welfare program begun in January, the Liberal government cuts the program to just three dreadnought, four cruisers and ten destroyers, while larger than the Tribals, the Beagle class will be considerably cheaper than the previous class. With the Colossus class dreadnoughts, there has a push to increase the striking power of their main armament. After considerable debate the option of producing a longer 12” gun to increase muzzle velocity is rejected in favour of a new 13.5” gun firing a heavier shell, with the class mounting eight of the new weapons in four superfiring turrets fore and aft. This jump in gun gun calibre and resulting increase to the weight of their broadside will result in the ships being the first of what will be termed super dreadnoughts. In an experimental move, one of the cruisers will fit newly developed Yarrow small water tube boilers to examine their suitability for general adoption. Additionally the estimates include funding for the development of methods to detect and attack submarines while submerged.
August 1908: The German army has been holding extensive trials since 1901 to replace their unwieldy bulky single action Ordonnanzrevolver 1879. In 1904 the German navy adopted an improved version of the Swiss M1900 Luger Pistol in the new 9x19mm Parabellum cartridge as the Selbstlade-Pistole 1904 or Luger P04. This new round was simply a non bottlenecked version of existing 7.65mm Parabellum with a larger 9mm bullet tailored to meet German requirements. After extensive trials, the German finally accepts a slight variation of the Luger P04 as the Pistole 1908 or Luger P08 in the same 9mm Parabellum. This round will go on to become one of the most popular handgun cartridges in the world.
August 1908: With his control of Zheng China now seeming secure and recognising the dire need for further widespread reform similar to those underway in the south, Emperor Shikai launches a purge of the Zheng administration and bureaucracy aimed at removing conservative Qing loyalists, with most prominent either executed or assassinated. Many leading conservatives quickly recognise the Emperor's intent and flee into exile, seeking refuge in Japan and Russia. In place of these conservatives, the Emperor brings in many left wing radicals such as Wang Jingwei and Zhang Jingjiang, going so far as to appoint leading anarchist Wu Zhihui to the Zheng Grand Council.
August 1908: The troop tests of the improved Rexel version of the Madsen light machine gun have proven successful, with only minor changes required. With the trials completed, the weapon is formally adopted as the Gun, Machine, Rexel, 0.303”, Mk I to replace the Maxim guns at battalion level. The intention is for two guns to be issued to each company or squadron to give the battalion a total of eight. Meanwhile the existing Maxim guns will be transferred to the Machine Gun Regiment, organised into seven regular and nine territorial machine gun battalions each with 24 Maxim guns. However regardless of the Rexel guns low cost of only £12 {£10.68} when compared with the Maxim's price of £200 {£178}, some 4,500 guns would be required to fully equip both the regulars and territorials. With the pressure to limit expenditure due to the Liberal government's social welfare program, the decision is made to delay the purchase for the immediate future.
September 1908: With Cuban unrest having been ongoing for ten years and some 28,000 regular US troops supported by 6,000 local auxiliaries deployed to Cuba to suppress an estimated 3,000 rebels, serious questions are being asked in the country as to the wisdom of the continued occupation of the island. These debates are serving to embolden José Gómez's insurgents, further increasing their attacks in the run up to the US elections in November. In an effort to quiet the siltation President Roosevelt authorises the deployment of an additional 6,000 troops to Cuba.
September 1908: With the Zheng now supporting the Tibetan Revolt, the Xianfa belief the uprising has been suppressed has proven to be false, with the rebels now conducting a guerilla campaign in an attempt to force the Xianfa from Tibet. While the regular Xianfa forces have initially struggled to adapt to the new phase of the revolt. However, the Xianfa Tuji special forces has proved successful in countering these guerillas. In particular the newly developed Chengdu Type 2 machine carbine has proved highly effective in this type of warfare, resulting in a major increase in the rate of its production and introduction to regular army service. However, with only a little over 700 Tuji troops available, the Xianfa begin an expansion of the corps, raising additional units, both from the Marines and Army. Additionally, the Xianfa begin training regular troops in improved counter insurgency tactics to further address the revolt.
September 1908: While Canadian Vickers in Montreal is undoubtedly the largest shipbuilder in Canada, it is not the only shipyard. Since Canadian Vickers opening in 1898, there have been growing complaints from other Canadian shipbuilders regarding Canadian Vickers monopoly on military orders, which have become overwhelming since Canadian Vickers won the contract to build the new Russian battlecruisers. With the Royal Canadian Navy having found their existing ships unsuitable for operations in the Arctic Ocean, there is a requirement for a specialised class of vessels to patrol those waters. In a surprising move, the navy rejects all British designs, selecting instead the Dano-Norwegian F750T minesweeper, impressed by its rugged construction and icebreaker bow, with the lead ship built in Denmark and four more constructed under licence in smaller Canadian yards.
September 1908: Since the Austro-Hungarian occupation of Bosnia and Novi Pazar after the Congress of Berlin in 1878, the Austro-Hungarians and Russians have held numerous discussions regarding Austria-Hungary annex the territories. A secret informal agreement has long been reached that Russia would support such a move in return for Austro-Hungarian support for a modification to the 1841 Straits Convention to allow Russian warships to transit the Turkish Straits during wartime. With the Young Turk Revolution in the Ottoman Empire the Austro-Hungarians have been looking to finally annex these territories. As a preliminary to such a move, Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal holds secret talks with his Russian counterpart Alexander Izvolsky at Buchlau Castle in Moravia. As a result of these talks, the Austro-Hungarians will believe they have Russian agreement to absorb Bosnia and Novi Pazar.
July 1908: Xianfa Emperor Zaitian's brother Zaifeng, has been serving as an officer in the Royal Navy since 1901. However he has long expressed his desire to return to China and continue his service in the Xianfa Navy, something thus far blocked by his brother wishing him to gain further military experience. However, with Zaifeng now having accumulated over seven years experience, his wish is finally granted and he resigns from the Royal Navy, entering the Xianfa Navy as a First Lieutenant, initially posted to the armoured cruiser Hai Nan.
July 1908: Since the signing of the Anglo-Russian Accord last year, concerns have been growing in the Ottoman Empire regarding Russian designs on Ottoman territory, with many in the Ottoman army fearing a potential Anglo-Russian alliance. These concerns have led a group of young officers in the Third Army based in Salonika, headed by Ismail Enver, to begin plotting revolution. The officers, part of the Young Turk movement, desert the army to begin raising guerilla resistance to the autocratic government of Sultan Abdul Hamid II. In an effort to suppress this growing movement the Sultan dispatches Shemsi Pasha crush the rebels. In a clash Shemsi Pasha is killed and his troops defect to the rebels.
July 1908: The death of Shemsi Pasha has greatly emboldened the Young Turk movement and resulted in the spread of the revolution to the Ottoman Second Army in Edirne. Led by Ismail Enver, the rebels march on Constantinople, demanding a restoration of the 1876 constitution. Unable to challenge the approaching troops, Sultan Abdul Hamid capitulates, restoring the constitution and thus beginning the Second Ottoman Constitutional Era.
August 1908: In response to the US Banking Crisis of 1907, a US business delegation led by Frank Vanderlip meets with leading Japanese Financiers, including Taka Kawada, Shibusawa Eiichi, Takuma Dan and Takamine Mitsui with the aim of capitalising on the growing friendships between the US and Japan in an effort to stabilise the volatile US stock market. This will mark the beginning of concerted effort by both US and Japanese business interests to integrate their respective economies.
August 1908: The destroyers and destroyer leaders ordered over the previous three years have proved to be expensive, fragile and having only limited endurance due to high fuel consumption, with the Cricket class coastal destroyers of limited utility due to their size, the 1908/09 Royal Naval estimates abandon First Sea Lord John Fisher's obsession with speed. The navy calls for four new dreadnought, an additional battlecruiser, eight light cruisers and twenty destroyers, However, faced with the high cost of the ambitious social welfare program begun in January, the Liberal government cuts the program to just three dreadnought, four cruisers and ten destroyers, while larger than the Tribals, the Beagle class will be considerably cheaper than the previous class. With the Colossus class dreadnoughts, there has a push to increase the striking power of their main armament. After considerable debate the option of producing a longer 12” gun to increase muzzle velocity is rejected in favour of a new 13.5” gun firing a heavier shell, with the class mounting eight of the new weapons in four superfiring turrets fore and aft. This jump in gun gun calibre and resulting increase to the weight of their broadside will result in the ships being the first of what will be termed super dreadnoughts. In an experimental move, one of the cruisers will fit newly developed Yarrow small water tube boilers to examine their suitability for general adoption. Additionally the estimates include funding for the development of methods to detect and attack submarines while submerged.
August 1908: The German army has been holding extensive trials since 1901 to replace their unwieldy bulky single action Ordonnanzrevolver 1879. In 1904 the German navy adopted an improved version of the Swiss M1900 Luger Pistol in the new 9x19mm Parabellum cartridge as the Selbstlade-Pistole 1904 or Luger P04. This new round was simply a non bottlenecked version of existing 7.65mm Parabellum with a larger 9mm bullet tailored to meet German requirements. After extensive trials, the German finally accepts a slight variation of the Luger P04 as the Pistole 1908 or Luger P08 in the same 9mm Parabellum. This round will go on to become one of the most popular handgun cartridges in the world.
August 1908: With his control of Zheng China now seeming secure and recognising the dire need for further widespread reform similar to those underway in the south, Emperor Shikai launches a purge of the Zheng administration and bureaucracy aimed at removing conservative Qing loyalists, with most prominent either executed or assassinated. Many leading conservatives quickly recognise the Emperor's intent and flee into exile, seeking refuge in Japan and Russia. In place of these conservatives, the Emperor brings in many left wing radicals such as Wang Jingwei and Zhang Jingjiang, going so far as to appoint leading anarchist Wu Zhihui to the Zheng Grand Council.
August 1908: The troop tests of the improved Rexel version of the Madsen light machine gun have proven successful, with only minor changes required. With the trials completed, the weapon is formally adopted as the Gun, Machine, Rexel, 0.303”, Mk I to replace the Maxim guns at battalion level. The intention is for two guns to be issued to each company or squadron to give the battalion a total of eight. Meanwhile the existing Maxim guns will be transferred to the Machine Gun Regiment, organised into seven regular and nine territorial machine gun battalions each with 24 Maxim guns. However regardless of the Rexel guns low cost of only £12 {£10.68} when compared with the Maxim's price of £200 {£178}, some 4,500 guns would be required to fully equip both the regulars and territorials. With the pressure to limit expenditure due to the Liberal government's social welfare program, the decision is made to delay the purchase for the immediate future.
September 1908: With Cuban unrest having been ongoing for ten years and some 28,000 regular US troops supported by 6,000 local auxiliaries deployed to Cuba to suppress an estimated 3,000 rebels, serious questions are being asked in the country as to the wisdom of the continued occupation of the island. These debates are serving to embolden José Gómez's insurgents, further increasing their attacks in the run up to the US elections in November. In an effort to quiet the siltation President Roosevelt authorises the deployment of an additional 6,000 troops to Cuba.
September 1908: With the Zheng now supporting the Tibetan Revolt, the Xianfa belief the uprising has been suppressed has proven to be false, with the rebels now conducting a guerilla campaign in an attempt to force the Xianfa from Tibet. While the regular Xianfa forces have initially struggled to adapt to the new phase of the revolt. However, the Xianfa Tuji special forces has proved successful in countering these guerillas. In particular the newly developed Chengdu Type 2 machine carbine has proved highly effective in this type of warfare, resulting in a major increase in the rate of its production and introduction to regular army service. However, with only a little over 700 Tuji troops available, the Xianfa begin an expansion of the corps, raising additional units, both from the Marines and Army. Additionally, the Xianfa begin training regular troops in improved counter insurgency tactics to further address the revolt.
September 1908: While Canadian Vickers in Montreal is undoubtedly the largest shipbuilder in Canada, it is not the only shipyard. Since Canadian Vickers opening in 1898, there have been growing complaints from other Canadian shipbuilders regarding Canadian Vickers monopoly on military orders, which have become overwhelming since Canadian Vickers won the contract to build the new Russian battlecruisers. With the Royal Canadian Navy having found their existing ships unsuitable for operations in the Arctic Ocean, there is a requirement for a specialised class of vessels to patrol those waters. In a surprising move, the navy rejects all British designs, selecting instead the Dano-Norwegian F750T minesweeper, impressed by its rugged construction and icebreaker bow, with the lead ship built in Denmark and four more constructed under licence in smaller Canadian yards.
September 1908: Since the Austro-Hungarian occupation of Bosnia and Novi Pazar after the Congress of Berlin in 1878, the Austro-Hungarians and Russians have held numerous discussions regarding Austria-Hungary annex the territories. A secret informal agreement has long been reached that Russia would support such a move in return for Austro-Hungarian support for a modification to the 1841 Straits Convention to allow Russian warships to transit the Turkish Straits during wartime. With the Young Turk Revolution in the Ottoman Empire the Austro-Hungarians have been looking to finally annex these territories. As a preliminary to such a move, Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal holds secret talks with his Russian counterpart Alexander Izvolsky at Buchlau Castle in Moravia. As a result of these talks, the Austro-Hungarians will believe they have Russian agreement to absorb Bosnia and Novi Pazar.
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A good source on these matters is Willem Hackmann's Seek & Strike: Sonar, Anti-Submarine Warfare and the Royal Navy 1914-56 (HMSO 1984). Chapter 1, "Underwater Acoustics before the first world war", is particularly relevant.
OTL's British Army had very tough procurement decisions to make. The naval race gobbled up a lot of cash, and on a budget that was somewhat static the army had to develop aviation, motorise transport, re-equip the artillery, investigate radios, invest in field telephones, and spend a lot on improved musketry. Somewhere I read that in FY1912 the army could afford to buy a grand total of 2 (two) MGs.
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The entire German strategy is based around rapidly knocking France out of the war and then switching focus to face Russia. As after the Franco-Prussian War the French built a formidable series of defensive fortifications along their border with Germany, the only way to do this is to outflank through the Low Countries, forcing the French to abandon those positions and face the Germans in open battle to defend Paris.
Or they may try the opposite direction. Hold back france at short border they share while killing russia. That would be one way to not need to invade Belgium
One the more subtle but import changes regarding the RN ITTL is the survival of Admiral George Tryon and his eventual elevation to First Sea Lord. In many ways hiss term was similar to that of Fisher, mass scrapping of obsolete warships with extensive reforms and modernisation. His reforms produced a far more innovative and technically minded navy, along with fostering initiative amongst its officers. This is one of the products of that change. In the OTL the RN did even begin thinking about how to counter submarines until I think from memory 1913, and didn't take it seriously until they actually started sinking things. ITTL, the RN is proactive when dealing with new technologies.
Here the increased the increased efficiency and size of the Imperial economy plays a large role. Simply put there's more money available. You also have that the long dominance of the Liberal Party means a lot of the OTL social policies introduced in this period are already in place and again Tryon comes into play as the RN is already more cost efficient.
Actually this was historically a very major factor with those nations which initially adopted the Madsen, and even during the OTL Great War, the strong advocates in the Britain for its adoption over the Lewis due to a Lewis being even more expensive the Vickers while the Madsen was basically dirt cheap.
Prior to the Great War, Germany was convinced it could not successfully fight a prolonged two front war. so one of Russia or France had to be knocked out quickly and Russia can not be knocked out quickly.
For those who are interested in such things the comparative costs for MG's in 1918 were Lewis £168, Vickers £100, and Madsen £40. The cost advantages are quite obvious. I believe the issue was the Danes were unwilling to piss of anybody, Germany especially, by issuing a manufacturing licence. And direct sales were very definitely right out.