For some values of "expect", yes, especially depending upon the PoD. If Italy has remained friendly with France since 1918, and even more so if there is no Fascist regime, it will hardly be a surprise for the Germans, and they will have built extensive mountain fortifications in addition to those of Austria. The Italian offensive isn't likely to do much headway. But that's not a big issue. In OTL 1940, it's not as if Germany could afford to even man defensively that border with, say, a dozen poorly armed infantry divisions. The fact alone that the Germans are fighting on two fronts (not counting the garrison units in Poland), will almost certainly mean trench warfare in France too, just like on the Alps. Then there is the possibility of a later PoD. The worst for Germany would be just before the signing of the Pact of Steel. Mussolini dies or whatever, Balbo, who never liked the Germans, gains power, and he is not even formally bound to side with Germany. In that case, yes, an invasion of Germany (which by 1938 stretched all the way down to the old Italian-Austrian border) will be unexpected.