What if Italy joined France and the Allies

[Michele]

Yugoslavia was the primary target of Italy (Mussolini), under this scenario, Ethiopia and Spanish Civil War have likely been settled by some machinations or not occurred? still think something happens with Yugoslavia and that would not be bloodless?

That would mean that while Italy is waging a difficult war in the Alps against Germany, and its Northern cities are under air bombardment, Mussolini does something against Greece and simultaneously Yugoslavia? I doubt that.
Unless you mean that a Yugoslavian adventure takes place roughly instead of Ethiopia and Spain, i.e., before WWII.

Germany allies with Hungary and rump state of Yugoslavia (Serbia)? they could reach Greece by land then?

Difficult. Hungary in OTL needed a severe governmental readjustment, with Germany being the winner, to side with Germany. Here Germany is definitely not the winner.

 

[Michele]

With Italy being part of the Entente, Greece simply isn't important.

Nope, Germany does something desperate, and goes for a Sickle-Cut through the Low Countries in an attempt to knock out France.

It works.

In June 1940, London and Rome are stuck with 'What do we do next, with Paris in German hands ?'.

Nice, but I don't think it works. As mentioned upthread, subtract a handful of French divisions from the Alpine border, and maybe another handful from the Tunisian border, and place them in the way of the sickle. Also subtract two handfuls of German divisions from the sickle and deploy them in the Eastern Alps, facing the Italians.

The point of the sickle might still be pointy - Panzerdivisionen. But they will not have the staying power of the infantry behind them. A more likely result is that the panzers are wasted and a bulge, but well entrenched, ensues.

That's not the end of the woes for Germany. Weserübung worked in OTL, but just barely. With a friendly Italy, the British and the French can deploy more naval assets from the Med to the North Sea, and maybe Weserübung fails. The Germans lose their navy as per OTL, but also the infantry committed there, in particular their paras. I.e. another fundamental piece of the sickle gets weaker.

 

[thaddeus]

Yugoslavia was the primary target of Italy (Mussolini), under this scenario, Ethiopia and Spanish Civil War have likely been settled by some machinations or not occurred? still think something happens with Yugoslavia and that would not be bloodless?

Germany allies with Hungary and rump state of Yugoslavia (Serbia)? they could reach Greece by land then?

That would mean that while Italy is waging a difficult war in the Alps against Germany, and its Northern cities are under air bombardment, Mussolini does something against Greece and simultaneously Yugoslavia? I doubt that.
Unless you mean that a Yugoslavian adventure takes place roughly instead of Ethiopia and Spain, i.e., before WWII.

Hungary in OTL needed a severe governmental readjustment, with Germany being the winner, to side with Germany. Here Germany is definitely not the winner.

yes, meant a Yugoslav adventure instead of Ethiopia and Spanish Civil War, than the former might be settled by some dealings between the Stresa Front partners (which of course they tried OTL) and latter either does not occur or Italy does not become involved.

of course a Yugoslav misadventure might not happen either, but was replying to idea of invasion of Greece with speculation an invasion of Yugoslavia more likely.

as far as Hungary, my understanding Germany had them competing with Romania, while shortchanging them on equipment and territorial returns? likely not a viable strategy here?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Important point: while the Alps are basically impassable, so no major ground combat between Italy and Germany, the air above them is not. Therefore, a major additional front for the Luftwaffe. However, the Italian AF is technically deficient (too many biplane fighters).

 

[Michele]

Important point: while the Alps are basically impassable, so no major ground combat between Italy and Germany, the air above them is not. Therefore, a major additional front for the Luftwaffe. However, the Italian AF is technically deficient (too many biplane fighters).

The ground combat can actually be really major - but major breakthroughs, or even just advances, are very unlikely.

Strategic bombing will definitely take place, but tactical bombing in alpine valleys is much less comfortable than over the Polish plains.

 

[gurgu]

the only 2 ways i can see Italy with the allies, keeping the same tl until 36/37 would be :

1. if Mussolini keeps he's guarantee on Austria and even form an official alliance with Austria and Hungary more solid than the Rome protocols and places is army on the Austrian-German border in the 37/38 crisis
2. Mussolini dies( stroke?) and the king appoints Balbo as new duce( not member of the old guard and pretty charming among the population) who is a germanophobe and doesn't for an alliance with Austria but guarantee's their independence.

the 2 option re-converge if angry Adolph declare war on austria with italians and hungarians going in help. At this point both france/england would join austria defence since they know italy isn't enought to stop the angry mustache and they don't want him to have mediterranean access.
by 1939( ironically) the war would be already a loss for germany since they weren't ready for a full war yet, haven't repayed the mefobills with austrian/czech gold and hasn't the czech/polish workforce, with britain blocking the north sea and france on the maginot line( the british corps would be partially on the belgium/netherlands territories to prevent any surprise attack)
a peace treaty in the early '40s would be something like:
-austria minor concessions on the border
-italy some colonies from england/france for the prestige OR a carte blanche over jugoslavia nor greece
germany will have to demilitarize all the country, arrest all the nazi leaders, ban the nazi party( but not the fascist one if exists) and pay all the reparations to the allies, while it's fleet( probably not even left the baltic) would be split between the 3 majors

At this point with the new crisis after EW( european war 1?) germany might become commie or see a return of the kaiser supported from the junkers, if it happens the first one we might see a later partion of poland in 1944(?) and germany joining the comintern then leaving to stalin the beginning of WW2 democrats/fascist VS commies ( electric boogaloo).

For any grammar mistake i apologize, else for historical accuracy pls correct me

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

The ground combat can actually be really major - but major breakthroughs, or even just advances, are very unlikely.

Which IMO means that neither side will launch any big operations.

Strategic bombing will definitely take place...

I wonder... There was no strategic bombing to speak of during the Phony War. Neither side wanted to start it; the Allies were very fearful of what could happen.

I'm not sure why the Germans didn't do any. From what I've picked up - there was no heavy bomber mafia in the Luftwaffe. Even Goering did not subscribe to the idea that bombing alone could defeat a major power. It would seem that no one in the Luftwaffe wanted to attack, say, French war plants. How odd.

Anyway, ISTM that the same reluctance would apply between Germany and Italy. Italy lacked a true heavy bomber force; and again, I don't think there was a bomber mafia in Italy. Maybe if Balbo had replaced Mussolini (one of the suggestions for keeping Italy and Germany apart). Was Balbo a bomber enthusiast?

 

[Michele]

Which IMO means that neither side will launch any big operations.

I fear you are overestimating the Italian military leadership.

I wonder... There was no strategic bombing to speak of during the Phony War. Neither side wanted to start it; the Allies were very fearful of what could happen.

I'm not sure why the Germans didn't do any. From what I've picked up - there was no heavy bomber mafia in the Luftwaffe. Even Goering did not subscribe to the idea that bombing alone could defeat a major power. It would seem that no one in the Luftwaffe wanted to attack, say, French war plants. How odd.

Anyway, ISTM that the same reluctance would apply between Germany and Italy. Italy lacked a true heavy bomber force; and again, I don't think there was a bomber mafia in Italy. Maybe if Balbo had replaced Mussolini (one of the suggestions for keeping Italy and Germany apart). Was Balbo a bomber enthusiast?

There was no strategic bombing by Germany during the winter of the phony war because they planned a proper and hopefully successful ground offensive in the spring. Carrying out serious strategic bombing on France would mean an essentially pointless attrition for the Luftwaffe and retaliation attacks on Germany, which would not cause serious physical damage, that's true - but they would reveal that the Germans could call Goering "Meyer".
That's different from this ATL, in which the Germans have launched an offensive in France and have been bogged down in trench warfare, and are similarly bogged down in trench warfare in the Western Alps. When ground operations don't bring success...
And the fact that the Italian bombers are few and poor-quality is an incentive to bomb Italy only, in hopes the French, at least, would not cooperate in a retaliation exactly for the same fear, retaliation on their own cities (the British, OTOH, might give it a go).

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

There was no strategic bombing by Germany during the winter of the phony war because they planned a proper and hopefully successful ground offensive in the spring.

???

If they plan to fight the French army, why not destroy the factories that produce guns and ammunition for the French army? Surely that would contribute to the success of the ground offensive - which hardly anyone expected to be quickly decisive.

Carrying out serious strategic bombing on France would mean an essentially pointless attrition for the Luftwaffe...

Only if it is assumed that the bombing would be ineffective. That is, the Germans would consider it pointless if they expected it to be ineffective. If that's what they thought, how did they come to that conclusion?

 

[Michele]

???

If they plan to fight the French army, why not destroy the factories that produce guns and ammunition for the French army? Surely that would contribute to the success of the ground offensive - which hardly anyone expected to be quickly decisive.

If the bombing of factories is effective, then the French will bomb with effectiveness the German factories. Which gains no net advantage for Germany.
If it is not effective, then why cause useless attrition to the Luftwaffe, which is firstly the flying artillery of the Heer, so will be needed at full strength for the offensive.

This also answers your question.

Also do note the propaganda/home front morale problem.

 

[SpaceOrbisGaming]

Seeing as so many people have talked about the Italian Air Forces I looked it up. Hopefully, this will aid in shaping this timeline. I'm also looking for maps of the era (1920-1945) primarily for the Italian's.
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http://militaryhistoryvisualized.co...-and-industry-in-early-world-war-2-1939-1940/

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

If the bombing of factories is effective, then the French will bomb with effectiveness the German factories. Which gains no net advantage for Germany.

Only if the Germans believe the French Air Force is the equal of the Luftwaffe. Which is something that no one thought in 1939-1940, AFAICT.

You alluded to Goering's notorious boast that no enemy bomber would ever strike Germany "or you can call me Meyer". One would think that he based this claim on his belief about the superior effectiveness of the Luftwaffe, not the expectation that both sides would refrain out of mutual fear.

 

[Michele]

Only if the Germans believe the French Air Force is the equal of the Luftwaffe. Which is something that no one thought in 1939-1940, AFAICT.

Note I discussed the effectiveness of the bombers. The air forces also include the fighters. It is entirely possible that due to technological and environmental conditions, the ones are effective and the others are not, regardless of the roundel or cross they fly with. Actually, it is entirely conceivable, given the opposite roles, that if one of the elements is particularly effective, then the other will be particularly ineffective.

You alluded to Goering's notorious boast that no enemy bomber would ever strike Germany "or you can call me Meyer". One would think that he based this claim on his belief about the superior effectiveness of the Luftwaffe, not the expectation that both sides would refrain out of mutual fear.

Well, what Goering believed and what was the reality are two different things. That said, his boast was not entirely unfounded if you think it in terms of daylight operations. In which fighters might find unescorted bombers in deep bombing missions, and if they found them, would down them - and that includes French fighters against German bombers.
The equation changes with less deep missions (in which escort fighters are therefore present), and changes again at night.

 

[Jonathansouth]

Italy very nearly did join the Allies as late as 1940 in fact only days before Italy joined the war the Italian government had just signed a deal to sell planes to the RAF and were in discussions with the French it was the suprise of the German Victory at Sedan (a very close thing that could easily have gone the over way and ended with a French Victory but for a bit of bad luck). That prompted the Italians to declare war on France it was to the point that when Mussolini ordered the mobilisation several of his generals did ask for clarification on who they would be going to war with