Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by SpaceOrbisGaming, Jun 7, 2019.
What would world war 2 look like with Italy now sided with the Allies? Does the war end sooner?
What would be the timing of Italy’s joining with the Allies?
OTL, Italy was part of a quasi-alliance with Britain and France which was dubbed the Stresa Front.
I think if the Stresa Front was able to somehow stick together (Either Mussolini delays his imperial ambitions or Britain/France tolerates Italy taking Abyssinia) it’d make Germany think twice about an expansionist foreign policy.
I wonder what could've happened had the March on Rome failed. The NSDAP was founded in 1920, and Adolf Hitler became its leader in 1921, so it could've seized power nonetheless, but a failed March on Rome could've had some serious repercussions on the Nazi ideology. There are plenty of TLs in which Nazism does not happen due to Mussolini not happening, but I have yet to see a TL in which Hitler takes over from Drexler in 1921, but Mussolini's failure in 1922 changes quite a lot about Nazism and about Europe as a whole.
Maybe if the war against France see unforseen difficulties or a disaster than maybe Benito Mossulini might join Allies for he wants to Bet in the winnig side.
How about between 1933 and 1939. Is that at all possible for a pod? I'm fairly sure Hitler viewed them as lesser beings so maybe his more open about his views and thus he joins the allies. Maybe it's unlikely but that's why I'm asking, to see what may have happened.
No Beer Putsch, so maybe Hitler become a more 'regular' politician and built the NASDAP as a more 'historical' presence in the German parlamient. I doubt that the Mein Kampt is not written, Hitler seem the type too enamored of his voice (even if written) to not make it know his thought to the general pubblic.
He will lack Mussolini as a blueprint for a succesfull dictatorships, even if he can take example from other strongman like Horty
But then if Hitler becomes a 'regular' politician, does he get underestimated the way he did OTL and gets appointed Chancellor because people assume he could be controlled and be reduced to a puppet?
It possible, i expect that he will be fringe till the great depression and maybe he remain in the parlamamient for just an handfull of years
I could see him still becoming chancellor he did have a way with words if nothing else. One doesn't go from beer halls to the most powerful man without knowing how to get the people behind you. It may be slower but unless his careless he should still gain the role of chancellor.
The big divide is 1935. Ethiopia was a member of the League of Nations, and Italy, though it touted a (pitiful) casus belli, simply waged a war of colonial conquest. Up until that time, any conservative government in France might come to an understanding with Mussolini. Bit more difficult for the progressives.
If the Stresa Agreement is a bit stronger and more detailed, and if there is no Ethiopian War (a big if there), the fact that the French are willing to allow some more limited measure of ascendancy of Italy in Ethiopia will strengthen the link. Mussolini would certainly need something to show; a readjustment of borders in favor of the Italian colonies, possibly a link between Italian Eritrea and Somalia behind the French and British Somalias. That would mean some sort of arrangement over the rail line to Djibouti, etc.
Unfortunately, this would still leave Mussolini smarting for some military glory, and even if by late 1935 war in Ethiopia is averted and France is a friend - up comes the Spanish Civil War in 1936. Mussolini is likely to jump in that, even more enthusiastically than in OTL, and the French won't like that.
It is possible, although not terribly likely, that exactly a stronger Stresa makes Hitler mad and more willing to risk with the Anschluss. If this moves it up earlier a few months, or a year, then the Spanish Civil War has been going on for less time, and the divide might be less deep than in 1938. The Austrian emergency might force the French to go back again to their strange bedfellows the Italian Fascists.
All in all, difficult, and especially difficult to achieve with one PoD.
Hmm I see how far back would you say the pod need to be moved to make this work 1920-1925. Would that make this more possible?
What if Mussolini dropped dead or was run over? His death would remove Ciano's influence, as his main source of power was his father-in-law. Who would emerge instead? One of the old generals? Or would the King wake up and kick the Fascists out and install a more neutral regime?
That could work. Not sure how likely such a thing would be how old was Mussolini by the time world war 2 began. Maybe he is killed that may be more likely. I know people tried to kill Hitler so maybe somebody does the same with Mussolini
Obviously if you change things this far back, anything is possible. A trivially easy solution would be to let the Italian delegation be more effective and successful at versailles. If the Italians go away with more to show for the victory, that denies the Fascists some ammunition and simultaneously makes it more likely that any Italian government is more aligned with the same WWI-winning block.
The question is when. Since you mention Ciano, his influence grew only after 1935. If Mussolini disappears in say 1932, then Ciano is truly already a non-factor. The King would choose. He'd never kick the Fascists out entirely, that's not the way that dynasty and that country did things at the time. But he'd probably choose Badoglio or some other general, yes. Balbo would be the Fascists' candidate, I reckon, and if the King feels that imposing an old-guard general would mean too much discontent among the Fascist ranks, then he'd be a reasonable choice.
Italian troops moving from Italy to France to join the French and British (if there has not yet been a Dunkirk yet) and engage the Germans, i wonder how well the Italians will be able to stand up against the German Blitzkrieg.
I mean, if the Anschluss still happens, Italy and the German Reich share a border. Oh look, it's the same fucking mountain border they fought over 20 years ago!
Last time I check it was the Austrians who fought the Italians 20 years ago.
But this will force the Germans to keep some divisions at the Italian border who otherwise could have been use in Norway ore France.
A weird idea, considering that they can engage the Germans in the Eastern Alps. That's exactly what they are trained for, in the region they know best, and in terrain where tanks aren't all that useful, and even bombers are less useful than elsewhere.
And i assume the Germans will not expect a Italian invasion true Austria.
And if the Anschluss happens, then the Austrians are Germans. And well, the Austrians were Germans before that. Just ask every other ethnic group in the Empire (Hungarians included.)
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