ahmedali
Banned
This is just a hand waveWell, Germans will want (and need) to invade Italian Albania, to stop the Regia Aeronautica and the RAF from attempting to bomb Ploiesti oil fields from there (it's less than 1000 kilometers away). They can't afford not to, because the Ploiesti oil fields are their primary oil production site (that is not controlled by Soviet Union), and the Allies know this and will indeed prepare operations against Ploiesti (and happily violate Yugoslavian neutrality if needed).
So Germans have to conquer Albania, which means they need to go through Yugoslavia, and either make it an Axis member or occupy it as well.
In turn, tha means the Allies will promote the coup against Regent Paul, because they don't want a pro-German Yugoslavia.
So, for Yugoslavia, the situation will be similar to OTL.
The country that will likely escape invasion, on the other hand, is Greece (because Italians will be too busy fighting Germany to think about invading the Kingdom of Greece, while Germans, once they're established in Yugoslavia and Albania, already have sufficient bases to carry a bombing campaign against the Adriatic coast of Italy, from Venice to Brindisi. Conquering Greece wouldn't help them further. So, the Greeks will likely sit the war out, and hope that nobody notices them.
Allied Italy eliminates the Yugoslav coup simply because the Serbs do not feel paranoid about Italy threatening them and because the British do not feel the need to do so.
Everyone forgets that Prince Paul was Anglophone and his decision to remain neutral mainly because of fear of Italy, and in the scenario of ally Italy, the guardianship will not do this, so he becomes like the Turks and sells to both sides and declares war in 1944
Albania does nothing for the Germans, and Romania on the other side
So Italy, its ally, avoids the coup of Yugoslavia and the invasion of Greece, and thus the Balkan front, and this is an improvement for the Germans, regardless of anything.