To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

The General Armistice (August 1918)
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The General Armistice
August 1918

Having been defeated in France, defeated in the Balkans and without any serious prospect of defeating the Austrians, by August the allied combined force was all but destroyed. The ‘general armistice’ refers to the armistice terms between Greece and Albania with the central powers, but also with the United States, Montenegro and Serbia, who collectively sought terms led by President Wilson on August 2nd.

By August 1st, the vast majority of the European-orientated allied powers had concluded that with France no longer involved in the conflict, the interests of all parties would be best served by seeking terms prior to German intervention in their respective states. For Britain, this was never a concern as it being an island nation it would be able to maintain a naval blockade, while the US had continued the war largely in order to transport their troop ships home with protection from US naval vessels and to allow the US fleet to detain as many German warships destroy as many submarines as possible.

A whole month after France threw in the towel, the Allies had attempted repeated negotiations with various other parties to try and open new fronts - even the Bolsheviks, with plans being drawn up to defeat the Ottomans and continue the war in the Balkans. Yet with the failure of the Macedonian front, the Italian withdrawal from the war and the Greek coup, this was now at an end as well.

The United States, much like Britain being not actually compelled to give up, saw their role in the conflict as essentially at an end and sought to do what Wilson had wanted all along - to be the face of the new order. Re-issuing his 14 points, Wilson made clear that the armistice with Germany was conditional on the Germans providing ‘fair’ terms to the allied powers and following through with Germany’s vague and tentative political commitment to respect the right of self determination.

For Germany this proved both a blessing and a curse. Able to dictate terms to the Allies while equally facing the issue of needing to appear ‘reasonable’ and also wrap the conflict up quickly to quell the starving German people, the German Government had to press on with peace negotiations more or less immediately with all parties in multiple locations. Further, they had to negotiate with the assumption that if they did not satisfy the US, then America would continue in the war alongside the British - creating a continental blockade that would doom the German economy and influence in the long run and isolate her politically.

For the French, Belgians and United States, this would mean negotiating in the Belgian royal palace at Laeken, chosen by Germany for its size and relative isolation from the Brussels urban centre, but equally as a symbol of German suzerainty over Belgium. For the Italians, Serbs, Montenegrins, Greeks and Albanians it would mean negotiating in Vienna, chosen by the Germans at Austrian insistence and in respect to the city’s cultural and historical influence over the Balkans. China, Portugal, Brazil, Japan and the United Kingdom meanwhile remained out of the negotiations, largely waiting to see what Britain did.

The armistice itself was signed in multiple locations. The French had been forced to surrender at Compiegne where the Germans had met them in a rail car on July 1st. The Italians meanwhile signed their truce in the city of Gorizia in the Strassoldo Palace, the home of the Bourbon family in exile, directly on the frontline between the Austrian and Italian lines. The Greeks meanwhile surrendered in Tirana to Austrian forces, and the remaining allies signed armistice terms aboard an Ottoman run and German built battleship Yavuz Sultan Selim in Kavala.

Coming into effect at 11:00am Berlin time in each instance respectively, fighting had largely ceased on the Balkan front regardless, while fighting on the Italian front continued right up until the deadline. Thus at 11:00am Berlin time on August 4nd 1918 the Great War ended - or at least it did for everyone except Britain and global allies.
 
What is the situation in Normandy? I strikes me that the Germans should've been able to take Dieppe without much trouble (or am I missing something?). That would be useful as a forward U-Boat base. It would also make the English fearful of at least hit and run raids though in reality that isn't practical.
 
What is the situation in Normandy? I strikes me that the Germans should've been able to take Dieppe without much trouble (or am I missing something?). That would be useful as a forward U-Boat base. It would also make the English fearful of at least hit and run raids though in reality that isn't practical.
This is the great war, not the second world war. Advancing is slow and painful and Germany's army by the time of the armistice was exhausted. German forces never entered Normandy, certainly not in force anyway. There was merely a very large gap left over in the 'abandoned zone' which meant in French eyes the Germans could easily advance there if they wanted to, even though in practice they didn't have the capability or strategic desire to do so.

So to answer your question - there's nothing going on in Normandy. Not that it matters anyway, France and Germany have an armistice, they couldn't use it as a base anyway.
 
So about the revolution on the east, Germany is going to have a hard time keeping Ukraine and Belarus as client/puppet States. First I don't think the german population and even the soldiers would support a direct intervetion, even without the blockade the people and soldiers would be tired of war. Which could mean that upon demobilization Germany is going to dump the weapons surpluss onto belarussian and ukranian white forces. But still I think the communists still have a got chance of getting both Ukraine and Belarus.
 
So about the revolution on the east, Germany is going to have a hard time keeping Ukraine and Belarus as client/puppet States. First I don't think the german population and even the soldiers would support a direct intervetion, even without the blockade the people and soldiers would be tired of war. Which could mean that upon demobilization Germany is going to dump the weapons surpluss onto belarussian and ukranian white forces. But still I think the communists still have a got chance of getting both Ukraine and Belarus.
I don't think the Reds will win the civil war ITTL.
Germans were far more willing to provide weapons and supplies to the Whites than the Allies, but Germany's own defeat and revolutions had ended their support. Entente was unwilling to send help, even though Kolchak was willing and able to pay for material with gold (having seized Imperial reserves). Hindenburg and Ludendorf wanted to strangle the Red Beast in it's crib. Civilian government was more skeptical, but the prestige of military is now immense, so they'll be able to push for some sort "strategic intervention".
Vulunteer Army is right on the border of German sphere, they'll probably receive a lot of obsolete equipment that Germans will have to spare.
 
I am reminded of stuff like A Shift in Priorities, which among other things, Wilson and the Democratic Party is shamed and discredited after the War.
Not really? They fought one battle. That was it. Hardly anything to really be shamed over. Given how the armistice seems to reference Wilson's 14 points he would still have a major role in peace negotiations especially since America is unscathed and is sending in boatloads of supplies to their allies. In fact the Democrats probably get out of the whole ordeal better than they did in OTL. There's no sense of post-war exhaustion, there's no immediate desire to go back to isolationism. There's no real worry about German voters deserting the Democratic party en masse like they did in the 1920 elections.
 
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Not really? They fought one battle. That was it. Hardly anything to really be shamed over. Given how the armistice seems to reference Wilson's 14 points he would still have a major role in peace negotiations especially since America is unscathed and is sending in boatloads of supplies to their allies. In fact the Democrats probably get out of the whole ordeal better than they did in OTL. There's no sense of post-war exhaustion, there's no immediate desire to go back to isolationism. There's no real worry about German voters deserting the Democratic party en masse like they did in the 1920 elections.

It is complicated. Wilson at the start promise not to enter the War, with many Americans seeing it as just another European conflict. The one battle they did fight in was a barely a pyrrhic victory with high losses.

Yes, the Germans are accepting the 14 Points, but they are still able to be pushing their terms as best as possible. Same for after trying and failing to find new fronts to open up with the rest of the Allies also bailing and making they're own peaces.


The Americans did not have a real means of fighting the Germans beyond naval actions, nor would many still what to fight the Germans.
 
So about the revolution on the east, Germany is going to have a hard time keeping Ukraine and Belarus as client/puppet States. First I don't think the german population and even the soldiers would support a direct intervetion, even without the blockade the people and soldiers would be tired of war. Which could mean that upon demobilization Germany is going to dump the weapons surpluss onto belarussian and ukranian white forces. But still I think the communists still have a got chance of getting both Ukraine and Belarus.
Nope. If Germany wins -this means automatic survival of Skoropadsky's regime. His regime only collapsed because Germans lost, he tried to ally himself with Whites, got couped by Directoria, which got in trouble with Entente and Whites, and Soviets invaded taking advantage of chaos.
With Skoropadsky stabilizing his rule and even with 50% of German contingent in Ukraine staying, no way in hell commies manage to do anything.
 
So about the revolution on the east, Germany is going to have a hard time keeping Ukraine and Belarus as client/puppet States. First I don't think the german population and even the soldiers would support a direct intervetion, even without the blockade the people and soldiers would be tired of war. Which could mean that upon demobilization Germany is going to dump the weapons surpluss onto belarussian and ukranian white forces. But still I think the communists still have a got chance of getting both Ukraine and Belarus.
And you also got to differ, there were no white forces in Ukraine, Ukraine was 100% under control of Skoropadsky, his regime, his Army and German forces. Whites were based on Don and Kuban.
Belarus was de-jure just territory of Russia to be occupied by Germans and wasn't explicitly mentioned in BL Treaty. But already, by September 1918, Belarusian Central Rada ( organ of pro-independence philosophers, writers and intelligentsia) was in negotiation with Germans about forming Belarusian state. It didn't come to anything as Germany lost, but safe to say, if Germany wins, there will be some kind of Belarusian state inbetween Grodno and Dnieper-Dwina line.
 
I am Ukrainian, so I kind of researched those topics as part of history subject in school, and also did read some book memoirs by participants of those events in Ukraine and Belarus.
To sum it up :
If Germany to win, B-L Treaty stays. No ifs and buts. It stays at the very least until Round 2 between Germany and Russia, which is IMO not so guaranteed, cause Russia will be crippled to the point it won't be considered a Great Power for few decades.
 
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And the warmongers in the US will be be able to say that Wilson dithered. He either should have picked a side early, or just stayed out entirely. That's really the damning thing here for Wilson's legacy.

And given how the British and the French ran circles around Wilson at OTL Versailles, I suspect the Germans will do the same here, and the French will probably quickly tire of Wilsononian intransigence.
 
What happened to the BEF? I was sure they would fight on,not evacuate tbh
There's zero strategic value in fighting Germany on the continent once France and Belgium leave the conflict. Germany cannot occupy the channel ports because it would breach the terms of their armistice.

Also, more pressing issue: both governments have asked Britain to leave so as to avoid breaching their armistice terms. To remain thus would be illegal.
 
Not really? They fought one battle. That was it. Hardly anything to really be shamed over. Given how the armistice seems to reference Wilson's 14 points he would still have a major role in peace negotiations especially since America is unscathed and is sending in boatloads of supplies to their allies. In fact the Democrats probably get out of the whole ordeal better than they did in OTL. There's no sense of post-war exhaustion, there's no immediate desire to go back to isolationism. There's no real worry about German voters deserting the Democratic party en masse like they did in the 1920 elections.
Speaking as someone somewhat involved in the course the US takes ttl, you're overlooking that Wilson has broken his key campaign promise, got thousands of Americans killed for nothing, and then delivered America its first "lost" war.
The Alien and Sedition Acts have also still passed and German language and culture are still suppressed. None of that changes. As for the 14 Points, you'll have to wait and see :p.
 
Plus, these are the British we're talking about; who have learned that sometimes you need to lose Coalitions 1-5 to win 6 and 7.

That implies that Versailles wasn't essentially what Wilson wanted...
How many of the 14 points were actually properly implemented? All of like, 1? Wilson constantly gave ground to get his pwecious League of Nations and that was a miserable failure too. Wilson was taken to the cleaners at Versailles.
 
I am Ukrainian, so I kind of researched those topics as part of history subject in school, and also did read some book memoirs by participants of those events in Ukraine and Belarus.
To sum it up :
If Germany to win, B-L Treaty stays. No ifs and buts. It stays at the very least until Round 2 between Germany and Russia, which is IMO not so guaranteed, cause Russia will be crippled to the point it won't be considered a Great Power for few decades.
Do you think Skoropadsky would federalize Ukraine? And would this german backed Ukraine be a republic or kingdom?
 
Do you think Skoropadsky would federalize Ukraine? And would this german backed Ukraine be a republic or kingdom?
Military dictatorship with semi-hereditary monarchical structure. TL;DR, there is a Hetman, who is mix of a dictator and monarch. His oldest son becomes Hetman when he dies. Ukraine was supposed also to be called Ukrainian State, and Hetman would preside over Rada, made up from political parties.
And no, I don't think Skoropadsky will federalize anything. He came to this on eleventh hour trying to save his grasp on power OTL.
ITTL, with future certain and secured, he will instead make Ukraine a unitary dictatorship propped up by Germany and tied into German system as breadbasket.
 
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