To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
My favorite theory is that the stroke was from post-viral syndrome after the flu ("Long Flu"), coupled with the stress from Versailles and trying to argue the US into the League of Nations. But the post-viral link can't be proven, and he's definitely under a lot of stress ITTL too.
As per tradition, the life force of old timey Dems is powered by racism, and the more virulent it is the longer they live. Fortunately Wilson isn't politically based in a state south of Maryland or he'd be threatening to live until he's 100.
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Basils
Banned
Or even just a nation swinging one direction radically due to threats by the other side
Nah I feel having an alt 1930s crash caused by Germany, the US or UK destabilising the global financial markets prob will cause France and Russia to go insane and cause WWII.
PS if a-h collapses do you see Germany annexing Austria and Czechia.
Austria and the Sudetenland? Maybe. Annexing the rest of Czechia? Probably isn't going to happen.
Probably yeah.
It's more that I don't see the Austrians wanting to go their own way when Germany won WWI and is the strongest country in Europe ittl, and I'd think Austria would retain a bit of the Med coast they had too.
Ironically Germany is somewhatg protected from the impact of a global economic crash as their economy was so severed during the war they have no real financial links to any of the powers that could trigger a crash.
Of course that also carries the added downside that the economy will also get no outside investment and thus take longer to recover, but hey - there's a cloud for every silver lining.
I disagree. Annexing the Czech lands, or at the very least setting up some kind of autonomous federal unit separate from German Bohemia, within the empire, would be extremely likely. It was part of the Holy Roman Empire, the German confederation, and “Austria proper,” so letting it go would likely anger the Austrians. Not annexing it also makes the eastern border considerably longer than it needs to be, though admittedly less of an issue being surrounded by puppets. You also have to consider that the Czechs may see the old kingdom of Bohemia as theirs, in entirety, and present a risk to the Bohemian Germans in a future conflict. And despite the nationalist rhetoric of the German unification, it didn’t stop them from taking on a bunch of poles, nor did it stop them from annexing a bunch of Frenchmen in the Franco-Prussian war. The Czechs are nowhere near populous enough to be anything more than a sizable ethnic minority, which may even benefit certain parties in the German government considering many may prefer Czech ethnic parties instead of rival German political parties. And despite the non German nature of the territory, if the German empire annexed German Austria, but left the Czechs out of it, I’d argue many Germans would be pissed. As part of the Holy Roman Empire and the German confederation, the Germans would’ve considered those territories German by right, even if not by nationality, and it would be a national embarrassment to willingly refuse the political unification of the old Holy Roman Empire, when given the opportunity, as that was the entire point of German nationalism in the first place. I’d almost argue it’s more likely for the German empire to willingly refuse to annex the Germans in western Hungary, although that too is unlikely. Furthermore, from the Kaiser’s perspective, annexing the entirety of the old HRE would completely cement the Prussian/Berlin-based dominance of ALL of Germany, and make whichever Kaiser who accomplished it the hero that German children hear about when they’re put to sleep. After beating the shit out of France, twice, carving western Russia into pieces, dominating the old ottoman balkans, and finally reuniting the entire German Reich, at the expense of the Austrian’s non German empire, it would be immensely symbolic as the moment Prussia/Germany has beaten every single one of its traditional foes, and established Germany as the unquestionably dominant power of continental Europe.
I know it has been said before but I believe it bears repeating that this hinges on the wholesale collapse of A-H, an eventuality that I see as low in likelihood.
tbf depends on future events, but I do feel A-H could collapse if they get bad governance. At best they'd get federalised but things could get very bad too, especially if Hungary goes ham.
Absolutely. Even then it’s not guaranteed that the split leads to German annexation. I was just saying that IF AH collapses, and IF Germany decides to annex the German lands, the Czechs will almost certainly be included.
Not to double post, but I feel it bears mentioning that the Germans may be in a big of a catch-22 with regards to any Austrian annexation. If the Magyars or southern Slavs revolt and it throws the survival of the empire into question, the Germans could probably put it down and secure the current borders of AH, which obviously makes any annexations impossible, but if the Germans allow the Magyars or southern Slavs to establish their independence, and use the opportunity to annex German Austria, it’s very possible that the Austrians would view this... less than favorably, as it would be pretty evidently self-serving. In order to annex German Austria without it becoming a perpetual occupation zone, the German empire has to both fight with the Austrians against the seceding minorities, and lose, with full German unification being the “compromise.” That’s a very fine line to walk, and I wonder if the Germans are willing or capable to walk it.
At this time, the German-speaking part of the Danube Monarchy has no particularly strong identity outside of its affiliation to the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Therefore, should this collapse, the only identity left for the German-speaking population would be German, especially as there would be doubts about the viability of this rump state, which would mean that the only logical course of action in this situation would be to join the German Reich.
It may be that parts of the old establishment will be unhappy about this, but in the absence of other viable alternatives and under pressure from the street, they would probably go for it.
A hypothetical accession of German Austria to the German Empire would not only have far-reaching foreign policy consequences, in terms of Germany's hegemonic position in continental Europe, but also serious consequences for German domestic policy.
On the one hand, the religious composition of the Reich would shift strongly towards the Catholics, who constitute the majority in Austria, and thus either endanger or even break the power of the Protestant majority society in Germany.
Either the Centre Party could break apart or undergo a change in its political positions.
On the other hand, the annexation of the whole Kingdom of Bohemia would make another non-German minority part of the Empire, which can and will bring further problems.
For the Emperor and the current government, this would be an incredible success and therefore almost inevitable in enabling.
Therefore, should this collapse, the only identity left for the German-speaking population would be German, especially as there would be doubts about the viability of this rump state, which would mean that the only logical course of action in this situation would be to join the German Reich.
It may be that parts of the old establishment will be unhappy about this, but in the absence of other viable alternatives and under pressure from the street, they would probably go for it.
A hypothetical accession of German Austria to the German Empire would not only have far-reaching foreign policy consequences, in terms of Germany's hegemonic position in continental Europe, but also serious consequences for German domestic policy.
On the one hand, the religious composition of the Reich would shift strongly towards the Catholics, who constitute the majority in Austria, and thus either endanger or even break the power of the Protestant majority society in Germany.
Either the Centre Party could break apart or undergo a change in its political positions.
On the other hand, the annexation of the whole Kingdom of Bohemia would make another non-German minority part of the Empire, which can and will bring further problems.
For the Emperor and the current government, this would be an incredible success and therefore almost inevitable in enabling.
This is a key issue and one that is perhaps inadequately considered when regarding alternate Anschlusses more often than not in AH. Federalism and the balance between Prussia and the Catholic states was a key political issue in Germany and if Austria joins the Empire as one state, it would give Austria enormous sway in the Bundesrat (it is more populous than Bavaria, after all, even without counting the possible Sudetenland additions). And to add a new member state into the Empire, you need a constitutional amendment... which can be vetoed by Prussia, so if the Prussian government sees their position as inherently threatened by an Austrian accession they'd require some massive concessions/conditions on joining. That'd be a political nightmare and would need a ton of time to figure out - time which, if the A-H Empire collapses violently, maybe even has a revolution in Vienna as well, they may not even have.
ahmedali
Banned
but you are forgetting something, which is essential here
The German Empire was founded mainly on the fact that it was Greater Prussia and they did not want any Austrian influence in this Germany.
Besides, the Prussian ruling elite was anti-Catholic (you know what happened so there is no need to talk about it).
Besides, socialists were popular in Catholic areas, which the conservative Prussian government did not want
So the accession of Austria to the side of the Sudetenland would make Germany a Catholic majority, and this is the last thing the Prussian government wants
So the most banal cliché I've seen about a Central Powers victory is that Austria will join Germany at some point
So Austria will remain independent and just a small archduchy and the Czech Republic will become a kingdom with one of the Schwarzenegger princes as kings.