Yeah, but the Techno assholes had angered a lot of people. When you got the Pope, makes an official condemnation for acts on none Christians you know you have pissed off the good humor man as I can only recall a few times that has happened OTL. But religious history isn't my best subject.Puppets are good for working around tarrifs and embargoes.
What is more likely IMO is Peking or is it Beijing ITL? Either way they most likely try to annex it outright, they did the same to Formosa which by the point they got it back it should had been Japanese ethnic island and viewed by the Japanese as one of the home islands. The fact Manchuria has been gone from the Chinese SOI since the Great War isn't going to matter to the Techno people. Then again Japan was a totally defeated nation whereas Russia is simply worn out and still has nukes. So it could go either way.