I'll cover the technocrats in Manchuria in greater detail soon but they are more than a fringe element. Granted if an election was held they wouldn't win a majority but due to their Chinese/Korean backers they are easily the most effective pro-independence organization. That gives them a level of credibility with the masses.
The Union Forever: A TL
- Thread starter Mac Gregor
- Start date
I'll cover the technocrats in Manchuria in greater detail soon but they are more than a fringe element. Granted if an election was held they wouldn't win a majority but due to their Chinese/Korean backers they are easily the most effective pro-independence organization. That gives them a level of credibility with the masses.
IEF Civl War: Mar-Apr 2000
A House Divided
The IEF Civil War
March-April, 2000
The IEF Civil War
March-April, 2000
For two weeks, a tense standoff between forces aligned with the Motherland and opposition parties existed in St. Petersburg. With violence spreading around the country, Mitya Kuznetsov, leader of what was becoming called the Conservative faction, decided that the time had finally come to act. On the morning of March 18, Kuznetsov order the supposedly loyal Semyonovsky Life-Guards Regiment to storm Pasternak’s already besieged party headquarters. As the heavily armed soldiers marched to arrest Pasternak his supporters, the so-called Reformers, barricaded the streets. Refusing to open fire on the demonstrators, the regiment’s colonel stood his troops down, and then turned them over to Pasternak. Some other units in the capital followed suit and the Battle of St. Petersburg began. Explosions echoed and plumes of smoke rose over the imperial capital as soldiers, party militias, and civilians clashed in the streets. After the first day’s fighting, it was clear though that the Reformers had gained the upper hand. Saboteurs had destroyed two important rail lines into the city which hampered the arrival of Conservative reinforcements. On the evening of March 19, Kuznetsov and his cabinet withdrew to Moscow which had remained largely loyal. After a brief firefight with guards, Reformer troops gained entry into the monarch’s residence at the Winter Palace. To their surprise Empress Elizabeth II had not been evacuated by the Conservatives. It soon became apparent that this was intentional, as the aged Empress was bedridden having suffered a massive stroke the previous month. Pasternak quickly realized that this saddled him with a number of problems. If the Empress died, which seemed likely, it would be on his watch. Also with the Empress incapacitated, she could not publicly name him prime minister. Despite this setback, Pasternak announced himself the IEF’s acting head of government in direct opposition to Kuznetsov. In the following days, as news spread via radio, television, and on the globtrix, a number of Russian cities formally declared for Pasternak including Minsk, Odessa, and Smolensk. In Pasternak’s native Ukraine, the populace was split between the Reformers and those wanting independence. Ultimately, the regional legislature in Kiev announced their support for Pasternak but demanded greater autonomy when the war was over.
On March 27, Ismail Fitrat, having successfully evaded capture, resurfaced in Turkestan. News of Fitrat’s daring escape had electrified the IEF’s Muslim Turkic inhabitants. As sporadic fighting was already breaking out across the IEF’s Central Asian regions there were too few government forces to stop Fitrat and his supporters from issuing the Kokand Declaration which announced the creation of the Democratic Union of Turkic Republics. Open rebellion soon spread throughout Central Asia and Caucasia. Within days, Tashkent was ablaze as Imperial Army troops traded automatic rifle and mortar fire with partisans. In Baku on April 11, Nasib Ibrahimov, who had with Turkish assistance secretly returned to Azerbaijan, announced the formation of the Azeri Republic. In the Caspian Sea, a naval flotilla that had sided with the Kuznetsov government shelled city hall after it fell to the rebels resulting in hundreds of casualties but Ibrahimov was unharmed. By the end of the month, an independent Chechen government was also announced in Grozny.
In Warsaw, Lidka Gorski, chief minister for Poland’s legislative assembly, declared that the chaos in St. Petersburg had shown that the IEF constitution was a dead letter and that therefore the Federation was effectively dissolved. To cheering crowds, Gorski announced the creation of Polish Free State on April 2, the first truly independent Polish nation since 1795. Hosting a red banner emblazoned with the white Polish eagle, Gorski declared the formation of a provisional government. The city’s police force seized a local armory and became the nucleus for the new Polish State Army. Significantly, Imperial Army troops were unable to intervene having been withdrawn to reinforce the opposing sides on the outskirts of St. Petersburg.
Inspired, by developments in Poland and sickened by the fighting in the nearby imperial capital, Finland succeeded from the IEF. At a closed-door meeting in Helsinki, the Finnish Diet asserted the independence of Finland as a sovereign nation. The legislature was divided whether to form a new government as a republic or monarchy. With the aim of eventually securing the support of the neighboring German and Scandinavian monarchies the council decided keep the name Grand Duchy of Finland with the executive council serving as regents to a vacant throne. The government hastily selected a yellow and red Nordic cross with the Finish coat of arms as the duchy’s new flag. The declaration of independence surprised many Finns who worried that their proximity to St. Petersburg would solicit swift retaliation. Indeed, Imperial Army helicopters gunned down demonstrators in Turku after reportedly coming under ground fire.
In Manchuria, the nearly 450,000 Imperial Army troops were faced with an agonizing dilemma as to which government to support. Tied down facing a growing insurgency, they watched helplessly on television as the other parts of the IEF slide into civil war. Significantly, the theater commander General Field Marshal Venyamin Kozlov declared for Kuznetsov. Some soldiers, mostly non-ethnic Russians, deserted refusing to fight for the Conservatives. The majority however remained loyal. Despite the slipping security situation in Manchuria, Kozlov agreed with Kuznetsov and began shipping reinforcements west on the Trans-Siberian Railway to Moscow which was becoming a hub for Conservative forces under Tsesarevich Alexander. Garrisons were strengthened along the route to ensure continued communication and logistics. As May approached all sides prepared feverishly for what was already being called the “Bloody Spring.”
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Ah Christ, now it is a split way 8 side war Yugoslav style but with way more territory and complexity. This is not going to end well, although I am rooting for Pasternack and his fellows.
Mac Gregor, can I send you another piece on the Republican Front of Australia, an right-wing, anti-Commonwealth, pro-independence party? I'd like to expand on it a bit with your approval.
Mac Gregor, can I send you another piece on the Republican Front of Australia, an right-wing, anti-Commonwealth, pro-independence party? I'd like to expand on it a bit with your approval.
Things have just gotten real! Let's bring in the foreign powers and make this a proper World War II 
We got a good candidate for that one, which is the Technate of China and his allies in Vietnam, Korea and South East Asia.Things have just gotten real! Let's bring in the foreign powers and make this a proper World War II
If that happens, America and the American Alliance Bloc will surely follow.
I wonder if the Germans wouldn't side with the Poles and the Finns, bring them both into their alliance block as well as break up the Orthodox union in the Balkans.
I reckon Germany would jump at the opportunity to include Poland and Finland into the Association of European States, but then they have to deal with the Imperial Army and Crazy Mitya first.
So that is 5 sides now, possibly 6 if America jumps in.
Mitya and the conservatives have far worse problems to deal with closer to home. If the Civil War rages further and especially if the Technate invades, then the IEF might decide to cut them loose (for what do Poland and Finland offer Russia besides headaches). Then, Germany can swoop in, recongnize them, and invite them to join the AES
Well, this is interesting. I suspected the Poles would do something, but I thought the Finns were relatively calm? Finland definitely seems more like a rushed attempt than the other two nations. Will be curious to see what happens.
Demographics are going to be interesting; with Russia holding onto the their Empire for a longer period and without the disaster of the second world war, they are in a much healthier position. The Baltics, Bessarabia, and Kuban are quiet; I imagine they have a large Russian minority (or in some cases majority). Kazhakia might be the same; the similar region OTL did have an incredibly large minority of Russians; TTL, might this push it over to majority?
Also noticed the Georgia and Armenia are also still loyal to the IEF (no clue on which side, but pretty sure it's reformist). Ukraine may be similarly loyal or just relatively satisfied with the status quo.
Mac did say that the Finns are looking for German support.
Would the Poles want the Germans on their side? They still hold part of Poland themselves.
As for the Balkans... Either two things will happen. Without the IEF to enforce the peace, the states will start fighting over century old grudges or try to maintain the status quo. I mean, I guess the Turks might want to try and reclaim some land, but with the Kurds in the East and the Bulgarians/Serbs/Greeks/Romanians in the west... I don't remember hearing about any population exchange, so that may not have occurred.
Well, German inclusion of Poland in their alliance group is going to further headaches as it is; the Poles in Germany will want reunion with an independent Poland as it is. Finland could work, but it would also turn the future Russia/IEF against them.
Really, they can just ride it out and act as peacekeepers and moderators once the situation on the ground has become fait accompli.
Demographics are going to be interesting; with Russia holding onto the their Empire for a longer period and without the disaster of the second world war, they are in a much healthier position. The Baltics, Bessarabia, and Kuban are quiet; I imagine they have a large Russian minority (or in some cases majority). Kazhakia might be the same; the similar region OTL did have an incredibly large minority of Russians; TTL, might this push it over to majority?
Also noticed the Georgia and Armenia are also still loyal to the IEF (no clue on which side, but pretty sure it's reformist). Ukraine may be similarly loyal or just relatively satisfied with the status quo.
Mac did say that the Finns are looking for German support.
Would the Poles want the Germans on their side? They still hold part of Poland themselves.
As for the Balkans... Either two things will happen. Without the IEF to enforce the peace, the states will start fighting over century old grudges or try to maintain the status quo. I mean, I guess the Turks might want to try and reclaim some land, but with the Kurds in the East and the Bulgarians/Serbs/Greeks/Romanians in the west... I don't remember hearing about any population exchange, so that may not have occurred.
Well, German inclusion of Poland in their alliance group is going to further headaches as it is; the Poles in Germany will want reunion with an independent Poland as it is. Finland could work, but it would also turn the future Russia/IEF against them.
Really, they can just ride it out and act as peacekeepers and moderators once the situation on the ground has become fait accompli.
I could easily see the Turks moving into Kurdistan and the Caucuses while the IEF implodes. They could ally themselves with the Germans or even the Turin Pact for protection
Which is why the Georgians and Armenians haven't moved. The Kurds don't want the Turks, either, even if they're more independent than they used to be.
The Turin Pact doesn't want another member; integrating Spain was bad enough for the three nations. They don't need another nation joining only to drag them into war against Russia.
Germany, for that matter, wants the IEF to survive. Weakened, yes, but they are ideologically opposed to their biggest rival (the Technocrats). In fact, they are probably the power bloc most opposed to them after the IEF.
Thing is, if all of the IEF's perceived foes start dogpiling them, how long is it until they just break out the big stick?
And dear me, the demographics are a nightmare... Does the Chechen republic cover all of the Chechnya region? If so, I hope it's not being run as a nation-state; Chechens would be in the minority. From what I can tell, it also includes Stravropol, which would make the region have an extremely large Russian plurality (say 40% or so) if not more. The Ossetians, Balkars, and Kurachai (among others) wouldn't be desiring Chechen rule, either. And I'm not sure if Chechnya by itself will be able to maintain independence, as it would be completely surrounded by the IEF.
Dagestan likely won't join in the revolution lead by the Turkic group, as the largest Turkic demographic would be between 10-20% of the population, with the rest being smaller. The largest would be the Avars by a factor of two. The region is so fragmented, culturally, and maintaining independence as a united republic would be difficult, especially as many of the region's independence movements are being lead by Turkic pan-nationalists. Dagestan won't go and join the Turks; at best, it becomes a war-torn hellhole as all of the various small ethnic groups start fighting one another.
It's basically the same as OTL, really. The Caucuses are a crisis point because of the large concentrated demographics that are located next to one another and don't generally care for one another, either. And that's putting it nicely.
As to the point about Kazakhstan/Kazakhia; OTL, in 1959, the Russian percentage of the population peaked at about 42.7% of the population; with Belarussian at 1.2% (mind you, they are considered the same, so 43.9% total) and Ukrainian at 8.2%, you had near an outright majority. Now, without the Second World War, the purges, and a generally more successful and peaceful Russia to this point.. (and without the forced repopulation & Russification of Kaliningrad, etc), there would have been an uptick in colonization. (Mind, the Russification of Kazakhstan also took place during the period of the USSR, so there were some forceful population movements, but there also was the concept of an ethnic homeland) The Russian/Belarusian alone could account for 50%+ of the population of Kazakhia at the same time, and with the Ukraininan population added to it, it could be approaching 2/3s.
Of course, that population did trail off, but it could lead to a situation that the dwindling population of Kazakhian Russians is near 45% rather than 34~% as of OTL in 1989. If the colonization was more natural rather than forced settlements, it could actually have kept growing early on, slowly, only seeing a near majority around 1980 instead of near 1960 as per OTL. That was when the Kazakh birth rate overtook the Russian one, not counting emigration from Kazakhstan proper.
That's just for Kazakhia; there could be similar issues throughout many of the IEF's border provinces. There could even be sizable Machurian minorities throughout, along the same vein. I imagine a lot of southwestern Armenia has a large Russian population, similar to how a lot of southern Bessarabia.
It's a mess. A big bloody Yugoslavian mess.
Dagestan likely won't join in the revolution lead by the Turkic group, as the largest Turkic demographic would be between 10-20% of the population, with the rest being smaller. The largest would be the Avars by a factor of two. The region is so fragmented, culturally, and maintaining independence as a united republic would be difficult, especially as many of the region's independence movements are being lead by Turkic pan-nationalists. Dagestan won't go and join the Turks; at best, it becomes a war-torn hellhole as all of the various small ethnic groups start fighting one another.
It's basically the same as OTL, really. The Caucuses are a crisis point because of the large concentrated demographics that are located next to one another and don't generally care for one another, either. And that's putting it nicely.
As to the point about Kazakhstan/Kazakhia; OTL, in 1959, the Russian percentage of the population peaked at about 42.7% of the population; with Belarussian at 1.2% (mind you, they are considered the same, so 43.9% total) and Ukrainian at 8.2%, you had near an outright majority. Now, without the Second World War, the purges, and a generally more successful and peaceful Russia to this point.. (and without the forced repopulation & Russification of Kaliningrad, etc), there would have been an uptick in colonization. (Mind, the Russification of Kazakhstan also took place during the period of the USSR, so there were some forceful population movements, but there also was the concept of an ethnic homeland) The Russian/Belarusian alone could account for 50%+ of the population of Kazakhia at the same time, and with the Ukraininan population added to it, it could be approaching 2/3s.
Of course, that population did trail off, but it could lead to a situation that the dwindling population of Kazakhian Russians is near 45% rather than 34~% as of OTL in 1989. If the colonization was more natural rather than forced settlements, it could actually have kept growing early on, slowly, only seeing a near majority around 1980 instead of near 1960 as per OTL. That was when the Kazakh birth rate overtook the Russian one, not counting emigration from Kazakhstan proper.
That's just for Kazakhia; there could be similar issues throughout many of the IEF's border provinces. There could even be sizable Machurian minorities throughout, along the same vein. I imagine a lot of southwestern Armenia has a large Russian population, similar to how a lot of southern Bessarabia.
It's a mess. A big bloody Yugoslavian mess.
And the Volga Germans as well. Germans everywhere, for that matter.
Although, was the Baltic German ever larger than 10% in the constituent realms?
It was already messy when you had to deal with Slovenes, Croats, Bosnians, Serbs, Kosovoan Albanians, Montenegrins and Macedonians in a 6 state war.
Imagine how messy it would be with Poles, Chechens, Finns, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Kazahks, Kyrgyzs, Uzbeks, Manchus, Belarusians, Tatars and Russians fighting on a 8 sided civil war with messy alliances and deals.
Imagine how messy it would be with Poles, Chechens, Finns, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Kazahks, Kyrgyzs, Uzbeks, Manchus, Belarusians, Tatars and Russians fighting on a 8 sided civil war with messy alliances and deals.