The Union Forever: A TL

[metastasis_d]

This has the potential to turn into much more than a civil war. Many players (China, Germany, Turkey, Iran, possibly even Japan) have a lot to gain from pieces of the IEF falling off, but if they go so far as to support rebels, the IEF could start to take drastic measures against them. Or at least threaten 'anyone who helps the rebels,' for instance, further destabilizing their hinterland republics.

China will definitely want to intervene in Manchuria. We've already seen Turkey interfering. We've got hints that Europe might.

This has the potential to be an all-out slobberknocker.

 

[Mac Gregor]

...does that literally just say "Liberty" in Cyrillic?

Yes it does. Do you disapprove? The Liberty banner is just one version that the Reformers use. As both sides claim to be the legitimate government they both official use the IEF state flag. However, this is already causing issues with the opposing sides not being able to recognize each other. The Liberty Banner is an easy way to mark existing flags. The Reformers also often use lighter colors. The conservatives have their own variants often with the old pre-IEF coat of arms. Some are also defaced with the orthodox cross. I'll post some examples soon.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Situation changed pretty ugly. Just wondering how neighbours react for this?

Things have just gotten real! Let's bring in the foreign powers and make this a proper World War II

We got a good candidate for that one, which is the Technate of China and his allies in Vietnam, Korea and South East Asia.

If that happens, America and the American Alliance Bloc will surely follow.

I wonder if the Germans wouldn't side with the Poles and the Finns, bring them both into their alliance block as well as break up the Orthodox union in the Balkans.

I reckon Germany would jump at the opportunity to include Poland and Finland into the Association of European States, but then they have to deal with the Imperial Army and Crazy Mitya first.

So that is 5 sides now, possibly 6 if America jumps in.

Mitya and the conservatives have far worse problems to deal with closer to home. If the Civil War rages further and especially if the Technate invades, then the IEF might decide to cut them loose (for what do Poland and Finland offer Russia besides headaches). Then, Germany can swoop in, recongnize them, and invite them to join the AES

Well, this is interesting. I suspected the Poles would do something, but I thought the Finns were relatively calm? Finland definitely seems more like a rushed attempt than the other two nations. Will be curious to see what happens.

Demographics are going to be interesting; with Russia holding onto the their Empire for a longer period and without the disaster of the second world war, they are in a much healthier position. The Baltics, Bessarabia, and Kuban are quiet; I imagine they have a large Russian minority (or in some cases majority). Kazhakia might be the same; the similar region OTL did have an incredibly large minority of Russians; TTL, might this push it over to majority?

Also noticed the Georgia and Armenia are also still loyal to the IEF (no clue on which side, but pretty sure it's reformist). Ukraine may be similarly loyal or just relatively satisfied with the status quo.



Mac did say that the Finns are looking for German support.

Would the Poles want the Germans on their side? They still hold part of Poland themselves.

As for the Balkans... Either two things will happen. Without the IEF to enforce the peace, the states will start fighting over century old grudges or try to maintain the status quo. I mean, I guess the Turks might want to try and reclaim some land, but with the Kurds in the East and the Bulgarians/Serbs/Greeks/Romanians in the west... I don't remember hearing about any population exchange, so that may not have occurred.



Well, German inclusion of Poland in their alliance group is going to further headaches as it is; the Poles in Germany will want reunion with an independent Poland as it is. Finland could work, but it would also turn the future Russia/IEF against them.

Really, they can just ride it out and act as peacekeepers and moderators once the situation on the ground has become fait accompli.

The shit just hit the fan.

#BackPasternak

I could easily see the Turks moving into Kurdistan and the Caucuses while the IEF implodes. They could ally themselves with the Germans or even the Turin Pact for protection

Which is why the Georgians and Armenians haven't moved. The Kurds don't want the Turks, either, even if they're more independent than they used to be.

The Turin Pact doesn't want another member; integrating Spain was bad enough for the three nations. They don't need another nation joining only to drag them into war against Russia.

Germany, for that matter, wants the IEF to survive. Weakened, yes, but they are ideologically opposed to their biggest rival (the Technocrats). In fact, they are probably the power bloc most opposed to them after the IEF.

Thing is, if all of the IEF's perceived foes start dogpiling them, how long is it until they just break out the big stick?

And dear me, the demographics are a nightmare... Does the Chechen republic cover all of the Chechnya region? If so, I hope it's not being run as a nation-state; Chechens would be in the minority. From what I can tell, it also includes Stravropol, which would make the region have an extremely large Russian plurality (say 40% or so) if not more. The Ossetians, Balkars, and Kurachai (among others) wouldn't be desiring Chechen rule, either. And I'm not sure if Chechnya by itself will be able to maintain independence, as it would be completely surrounded by the IEF.

Dagestan likely won't join in the revolution lead by the Turkic group, as the largest Turkic demographic would be between 10-20% of the population, with the rest being smaller. The largest would be the Avars by a factor of two. The region is so fragmented, culturally, and maintaining independence as a united republic would be difficult, especially as many of the region's independence movements are being lead by Turkic pan-nationalists. Dagestan won't go and join the Turks; at best, it becomes a war-torn hellhole as all of the various small ethnic groups start fighting one another.

It's basically the same as OTL, really. The Caucuses are a crisis point because of the large concentrated demographics that are located next to one another and don't generally care for one another, either. And that's putting it nicely.

As to the point about Kazakhstan/Kazakhia; OTL, in 1959, the Russian percentage of the population peaked at about 42.7% of the population; with Belarussian at 1.2% (mind you, they are considered the same, so 43.9% total) and Ukrainian at 8.2%, you had near an outright majority. Now, without the Second World War, the purges, and a generally more successful and peaceful Russia to this point.. (and without the forced repopulation & Russification of Kaliningrad, etc), there would have been an uptick in colonization. (Mind, the Russification of Kazakhstan also took place during the period of the USSR, so there were some forceful population movements, but there also was the concept of an ethnic homeland) The Russian/Belarusian alone could account for 50%+ of the population of Kazakhia at the same time, and with the Ukraininan population added to it, it could be approaching 2/3s.

Of course, that population did trail off, but it could lead to a situation that the dwindling population of Kazakhian Russians is near 45% rather than 34~% as of OTL in 1989. If the colonization was more natural rather than forced settlements, it could actually have kept growing early on, slowly, only seeing a near majority around 1980 instead of near 1960 as per OTL. That was when the Kazakh birth rate overtook the Russian one, not counting emigration from Kazakhstan proper.

That's just for Kazakhia; there could be similar issues throughout many of the IEF's border provinces. There could even be sizable Machurian minorities throughout, along the same vein. I imagine a lot of southwestern Armenia has a large Russian population, similar to how a lot of southern Bessarabia.

It's a mess. A big bloody Yugoslavian mess.

And the Volga Germans as well. Germans everywhere, for that matter.

Although, was the Baltic German ever larger than 10% in the constituent realms?

It was already messy when you had to deal with Slovenes, Croats, Bosnians, Serbs, Kosovoan Albanians, Montenegrins and Macedonians in a 6 state war.

Imagine how messy it would be with Poles, Chechens, Finns, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Kazahks, Kyrgyzs, Uzbeks, Manchus, Belarusians, Tatars and Russians fighting on a 8 sided civil war with messy alliances and deals.

This has the potential to turn into much more than a civil war. Many players (China, Germany, Turkey, Iran, possibly even Japan) have a lot to gain from pieces of the IEF falling off, but if they go so far as to support rebels, the IEF could start to take drastic measures against them. Or at least threaten 'anyone who helps the rebels,' for instance, further destabilizing their hinterland republics.

China will definitely want to intervene in Manchuria. We've already seen Turkey interfering. We've got hints that Europe might.

This has the potential to be an all-out slobberknocker.

Great comments everyone. Keep them coming. The next update I do will be on foreign reactions to the IEF Civil War. Cheers!

 

[Mac Gregor]

Mac Gregor, can I send you another piece on the Republican Front of Australia, an right-wing, anti-Commonwealth, pro-independence party? I'd like to expand on it a bit with your approval.

That would be great! Send me what you got.

 

[Logothétes]

Have IEF's allies (Balkans, Mongolia, Tuva e.t.c.) taken an 'official' stance on this? As in, have they declared their formal support for any of the warring factions or they just decided to wait and see who'll gain the upper hand before doing anything?

 

[Lalli]

Yes it does. Do you disapprove? The Liberty banner is just one version that the Reformers use. As both sides claim to be the legitimate government they both official use the IEF state flag. However, this is already causing issues with the opposing sides not being able to recognize each other. The Liberty Banner is an easy way to mark existing flags. The Reformers also often use lighter colors. The conservatives have their own variants often with the old pre-IEF coat of arms. Some are also defaced with the orthodox cross. I'll post some examples soon.

I think that text should be in Russian.

 

[Utgard96]

Yeah, what Lalli said. The relevant Russian word would be "Свобода" (svoboda).

 

[Archangel]

I think democracies will support, even if unofficially, Pasternak, and maybe some independentists (depending on lobbies abroad).
More conservative regimes will lean toward the conservatives. Independentists might have support from friendly powers seeking to weaken the IEF.
It worries me that the the Technocrats may take advantage of the civil war to annex Manchuria, and spark a war, or cause governments to fall if they appease the Technocrats.

 

[TimTurner]

I think democracies will support, even if unofficially, Pasternak, and maybe some independentists (depending on lobbies abroad).
More conservative regimes will lean toward the conservatives. Independentists might have support from friendly powers seeking to weaken the IEF.
It worries me that the the Technocrats may take advantage of the civil war to annex Manchuria, and spark a war, or cause governments to fall if they appease the Technocrats.

If China moves in to Manchuria it won't be guns and roses... Ahem, sunshine and rainbows. There will be guerrillas.

 

[RyderWest]

It seems that the Imperial Eurasian Armed Forces are split on ethnic lines as well. Most of the Russian troops support Kuznetsov while most of the troops from the outlying regions support Pasternak, while some defected and joined the separatist Republics. I guess the Russians have the better equipment, but the problem is the whole communications thing since the Reformists probably cut off individual garrisons.

 

[TimTurner]

Who has the initial advantage?

 

[Lost Freeway]

Let's just hope that the meltdown of the IEF doesn't involve nukes.

 

[edudogel]

Poland might want to join up with the Baltic for some ports, because I don't see them gaining coastal land from Germany

 

[Mac Gregor]

I think that text should be in Russian.

Yeah, what Lalli said. The relevant Russian word would be "Свобода" (svoboda).

I thought Cyrillic was Russian. (I used Google Translate) I will change it. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Have IEF's allies (Balkans, Mongolia, Tuva e.t.c.) taken an 'official' stance on this? As in, have they declared their formal support for any of the warring factions or they just decided to wait and see who'll gain the upper hand before doing anything?

Excellent questions. I will cover this in the next update. The answer will vary by country. Many are simply trying to stay out of the carnage but some will see it as an opportunity to seek greater independence and others will try to support one the various factions in order to gain greater clout.

 

[Mac Gregor]

I think democracies will support, even if unofficially, Pasternak, and maybe some independentists (depending on lobbies abroad).
More conservative regimes will lean toward the conservatives. Independentists might have support from friendly powers seeking to weaken the IEF.
It worries me that the the Technocrats may take advantage of the civil war to annex Manchuria, and spark a war, or cause governments to fall if they appease the Technocrats.

If China moves in to Manchuria it won't be guns and roses... Ahem, sunshine and rainbows. There will be guerrillas.

Let's just hope that the meltdown of the IEF doesn't involve nukes.

Poland might want to join up with the Baltic for some ports, because I don't see them gaining coastal land from Germany

All interesting comments guys We will have to wait and see.

 

[Beedok]

I thought Cyrillic was Russian. (I used Google Translate) I will change it. Thanks for the heads up.

I'm guessing google messed up and just put the English word transcribed in Cyrillic for some reason. (I believe it does the same with Japanese, just putting the English word into Katakan rather than telling you the Japanese word. Probably an issue with other languages too.)

 

[RyderWest]

With the approval of Mac Gregor, this is another addon for the Federation of Australia, this time the anti-Comnonwealth and anti-Monarchist Republican Front of Australia. Enjoy!

Republican Front of Australia

The proposed flag of the Federal Republic of Australia, selected by the RFA in a public poll in July 1998.

The Republican Front of Australia is a right-wing/far-right, protectionist, nationalistic, anti-monarchist, anti-Commonwealth, pro-independence party that advocates for the Federation of Australia to leave the British Commonwealth and become a republic under a presidential system that is elected via popular vote. The RFA was formed on March 28, 1993 by Landon Ruby and Conrad Wilkens, two local councillors in Adelaide that were very unhappy at the British Commonwealth's efforts to keep the former British Empire together. The RFA is considered the direct descendent to the defunct Republic of Australia Committee, an organisation that was formed at the beginning of the Asian-Pacific War to oppose percieved British imperialism in Australia and was disbanded in 1987 over a leadership dispute. Taking notes from the various African countries that split from the Commonwealth, the RFA is notorious during their rallies for accusing the British government of using the monarchy as a tool to keep their colonies and dominions in line, which includes Australia, and saying that Australia would be better off without the monarchy due to the failure of various other monarchs to hold their countries together, pointing to examples like Spain, Tibet, the Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungary and especially France.

The party slowly gained steam between 1994 and 1998 with its membership growing to nearly 70,000 members in early May 1998. Later that year, the RFA released its political manifesto and white paper, "The Federal Republic: What it Means for a Republican Australia in the Modern World" during its first annual conference on October 22, 1998 in Fairburn, Papua, outlining its platform in the case that Australia becomes a Republic that is independent of the British Commonwealth, and a basic blueprint for a republican Australia (Australia's version of OTL Scotland's Future white paper with a dash of ARM), and also moving to pressure the then-ruling ADA-NAF coalition to hold a referendum on Commonwealth Secession, which fell on deaf ears.

After the 1999 Australian Federal Election in which Wamsley and his PFC party came into power, the RFA managed to grab 3 seats in the House of Representatives and 1 senator in the Senate, mostly in the State of Queensland and Victoria. However, the party has been subjected to a Cordon Sanitaire by all major parties, with PM Wamsley calling the RFA "radical republicans who will destroy the relationship between London and Albury because of misspent nationalism and protectionism" and the new leader of the the ADA Robert Nelkane describing the RFA as "angry, hopeless people who hope to follow the example of West Africa and split from the Commonwealth because of petty and vague arguments of anti-monarchism." However, Wilkens, who won the seat of Canley in Victoria, refused to back down, saying that "People, especially those who don't seen the benefits of a ineffective monarchy that is sitting in London, want to see Australia, a country with boundless potential and opportunity, split from this ineffective political union and lead our own way in the world."

Currently as of March 2000, the RFA has a membership of over 94,000 people and is trying to use its political influence to push through a Commonwealth membership referendum.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Thanks again to RyderWest for an excellent article.

 

[Mac Gregor]

World Reaction to the IEF Civil War

January – April 2000 ​

Refugee Camp in East Prussia​

The world watched intently as the planet’s largest nation slide into chaos during the first months on the new millennium. As would be expected, a multi-front civil war in the world’s third largest economy caused a substantial market panic. Many nations were still trying to recover from the globtrix recession, and this sent stocks plummeting due to supply chain disruption and consumer anxiety. Everyone was understandably concerned that a nation possessing nuclear weapons ripping itself apart posed a threat on a global scale. Nongovernmental organizations such as the Global Health Association (GHA) and the International Humanitarian Association (IHA) began stockpiling medicines and organizing camps for displaced persons, which were soon expected to number in the millions. In what was easily the biggest international event since the outbreak of the Asia-Pacific War a quarter of a century ago, the various countries and power blocs had a myriad of positions and goals that overlapped, intersected, and opposed each other.

German Empire

Due to proximity and being each other’s largest trading partners, Germany had a large stake in what happened inside the IEF. Chancellor Ernst Osterloh, now at the end of his second term, had monitored the situation closely. As Germany and the IEF had long maintained good if not necessarily warm relations, the crisis beyond Osterloh’s eastern border would likely prove to be his defining moment as chancellor, even more so than the political settlement in Cameroon. After Pasternak’s forces had secured St. Petersburg it became evident that these troubles were not going to be quickly resolved. Osterloh announced that Germany would remain officially neutral on March 21 refusing to take sides with either the Conservatives or the Reformers. When Poland and Finland declared independence the following week, matters became further complicated. Refugees were already spilling into Germany, and Osterloh feared that if IEF government forces tried to quell these nationalist uprisings there would be a bloodbath on his border. Osterloh’s government also did not fail to realize the potential opportunity that the civil war provided of potentially adding eastern European states to Germany’s alliance bloc, the Association of European States. With the utmost secrecy, Germany began making contacts with the new governments in Warsaw and Helsinki as well as with dissident groups, including Baltic Germans, in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. However, Osterloh wished to see how matters progressed further inside Russia before he committed himself to a course which could lead to war. Osterloh touted his “steady hand” regarding the Eurasian crisis while campaigning for the general election later that year. Osterloh’s cautious attitude towards action inside the IEF did not carry over to the IEF’s allies in Europe, which he actively courted.

United States of America

As with most leaders, President Blanton was caught off guard by the events in the IEF. With reelection looming and an economy falling back into recession, Blanton and to a lesser extent the rest of the League of American Republics, scrambled to react. While America had a longstanding policy of not getting involved in European affairs the aspect of the conflict that most troubled the western hemisphere was potential technocratic expansion in Asia. Unfortunately, the United States found itself bereft of viable options. Besides, reinforcing the West Pacific Fleet and rebalancing some air assets to Micronesia and Alaska there was little that America and its allies could do besides call for a diplomatic solution and warn other nations not to intervene. However, with a Democratic controlled congress and public opinion against any sort of intervention, Blanton did not have the support to take a more assertive role.

Empire of Persia

When news reached the Shah’s palace in Isfahan of Bronislav Mihoylev’s assassination, Naser Ali Qajar is reported to have remarked “and now it begins.” The Persian government saw the potential fracturing of the IEF as a massive opportunity to spread their influence in the region. Naser Ali Qajar quickly approved covert shipments of weapons and funds to separatist groups in Central Asia and the Caucasus. It was even rumored that Persian agents were active as far north as Dagestan and Chechenia, trying to foment and organize unrest. Naser Ali Qajar hoped that when the war was over, there would be a swath of newly independent states that would turn to Persia for guidance.

Turin Pact

When hostilities erupted in the IEF, Presidents Faucheux, Biondi, and Vasquez met in Genoa to hammer out a cohesive position for their three Turin Pact nations. For them, the largest concern wasn’t even over which regime ruled the IEF but whether their rival the German Empire would take advantage of the situation to expand its influence. While officially declaring their neutrality, the Turin Pact favored Pasternak and the Reformers for ideological and strategic reasons. Despite sympathy with some of the nationalist separatists, they wished for the IEF to stay together as a counterbalance to Germany, Persia, and China. In a joint press conference at the end of March, the three heads of state announced that the conflict inside the IEF was an internal matter for the Eurasians and that other nations should not interfere.

United Kingdom

With an upcoming general election and an economy in the doldrums, Prime Minister Geoffrey Lever hoped to achieve a foreign policy success to boost his Liberal-Democratic Labor coalition government’s chance at the polls. Lever was one of the first world leaders to offer to mediate a political resolution. Sadly, neither Pasternak or Kuznetsov’s governments accepted. Undeterred, Lever called for a meeting of world powers in May to ease tensions and prevent a global conflict.

Southeastern Europe

With its headquarters in Kiev occupied by Reformers, and rival IEF governments in St. Petersburg and Moscow, the Orthodox Council was effectively defunct by the end of April. As Imperial Army troops were withdrawn to the various fronts inside the IEF, the authoritarian governments of Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece found themselves without a patron for the first time in nearly 90 years. In Romania, King Carol III took the bold step to head off likely unrest by announcing constitutional reforms grating, albeit limited, greater political freedom. Believing that the war in the IEF wasn’t going to be over anytime soon and that Romania needed a powerful benefactor in order to retain the monarchy, King Carol met publically with the German Emperor Wilhelm III in the Stadtschloss in Berlin. Naturally, political cartoons depicting King Carol as a rat leaving a sinking ship were expurgated from the Romanian press. During this time, the Kingdom of Serbia remained surprising calm but unlike Romania refused to cozy up to the Germans. In Bulgaria, the government called for a partial mobilization to secure its borders and keep the populace in check as IEF troops evacuated through the ports of Varna and Burgas. Greece, however quickly descended into anarchy as violence erupted between supporters of the monarchy and socialists.

Turkish Republic

Turkish President Hayati Değirmenci took a very bellicose stance regarding the IEF declaring “that the time has finally arrived for the Turkic peoples, long oppressed, to throw off the Russian yoke.” In retaliation, both the Pasternak and Kuznetsov governments broke off diplomatic relations with Turkey. Having already facilitated the return of Nasib Ibrahimov to Azerbijian, Turkey began sending financial and intelligence support to him and to Ismail Fitrat’s newly declared Democratic Union of Turkic Republics. This put Turkey in an interesting position with its regional rival Persia, in that they were both trying to out due each other in aiding the separatists. Değirmenci also startled the world when he said that demarcation of the Turkish-Armenian border is “still open for negotiation.”

Technate of China

Having long supported the insurgency in Manchuria, China and its technocratic allies began flooding the area with arms and ammunition as Imperial Army troops were forced to withdraw to the west. The leader of China, Chief Executive Yu Qishan, had long hoped for such an opportunity to fatally weaken the IEF and spread technocracy. However, Yu had no intention to risk a nuclear war by direct intervention. Instead, Yu favored “making the Imperials quit Manchuria on their own accord.” The IEF’s other allies in the region, weak monarchial states like Tuva, Mongolia, Uyghurstan, Tibet, and Kashmir-Jammu naturally feared that with the IEF unable to guarantee their security they would be open to attack by an ascendant China. For the most part, these nations sided with Kuznetsov’s Conservative faction. This was due largely to practical reasons, as the Conservatives were easily the strongest force in the east. All the nations in the region braced themselves as events spiraled into unknown territory.