The Union Forever: A TL

[Archangel]

Good update, Mac Gregor!

Royalist Premier Miguelito Luiz Fernandez would be dismissed and forbidden to return to mainland Portugal,

In the Azores, Premier Fernandez was imprisoned after refusing to step down.

There's a small typo, the PM surname should be Fernandes (Fernandez is Galician).

All told, an estimated 206,000 Portuguese died in the war. A further 295,000 fled the country.

This will take some years to recover from.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

That Guinea-Bissau flag is pretty nice.

 

[Indicus]

That Guinea-Bissau flag is pretty nice.

Agreed. It's a lot like the Mozambique flag, except the weapon featured on the flag are swords, not Kalashnikovs.

 

[Archangel]

Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor: These three territories are still colonies of the Kingdom of Portugal. During the war, the Royalist government was forced to grant considerable autonomy to placate the population. Questions regarding their future status are set to be discussed during the constitutional convention in 1986.

I'm very surprised these colonies are still around.

Assuming no outright abuses in the previous years, they'll be content with autonomy.
If you are thinking in OTL autonomy for Madeira and Azores as models, that means quite a lot of competences at regional level, for which they might need financial transfers from European Mainland Portugal to exercise those functions.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Well, that's too bad. Will Portugal have the strength to interfere in Spain?

Probably not. I think they'll be trying to patch up their own wounds first and put an end towards the strife before looking outwards again.

I'm rather surprised that a truce with the Spanish Republicans wasn't one of the treaty articles. Perhaps it originally was, but got taken out in the bargaining.

Probably Portugal is too weak to doing anything. It has now long recovering era. And it would be stupid to intervene to Spanish Civil War anyway. Peace in Portugal hardly is so sure thing yet.

Indeed, Portugal will not be interfering in Spain as it is too weak and the British wouldn't stand for it.

 

[Mac Gregor]

"A good compromise always leaves everyone mad."- Bill Waterson, Calvin and Hobbes. Speaking of which, how have newspaper comics been developing?

Mac Gregor: Good timeline. I'm personally very impressed at the lack of Europe tearing itself apart twice, that takes a lot of skill. As for Iberia, I don't see Spain letting this slide if the Republicans win. If the Commies win, then it's a coin toss between intervention and significant meddling in Portuguese politics. If the not-Commies win, then it's an initially chilly relationship followed by a gradual warming. After all, Portugal now has a parliament with actual power! I'd be pure hypocrisy to continue to oppose them on ideological grounds.



Ah, I remember Calvin and Hobbes fondly, and I have all of their strips. I also remember the exact context for the quote, and it applies perfectly. Mac Gregor, if you are a merciful God for this world, and you have already shown you are, please let a Calvin and Hobbes analogue occur. It would only be right.

Roland Traveler, thanks for the support. Concerning the Spanish Republicans they have considerably less Communists than the Portuguese opposition had.

On Newspaper Comics they still exists in the TL. I would be open to a Calvin and Hobbes analogue. Any ideas?

 

[Mac Gregor]

I'm very surprised these colonies are still around.

Really nice flag. Great symbol and great color scheme.

Good update, Mac Gregor!

There's a small typo, the PM surname should be Fernandes (Fernandez is Galician).


This will take some years to recover from.

That Guinea-Bissau flag is pretty nice.

Agreed. It's a lot like the Mozambique flag, except the weapon featured on the flag are swords, not Kalashnikovs.

Assuming no outright abuses in the previous years, they'll be content with autonomy.
If you are thinking in OTL autonomy for Madeira and Azores as models, that means quite a lot of competences at regional level, for which they might need financial transfers from European Mainland Portugal to exercise those functions.

Glad y'all liked Guinea's flag.

So Archangel thinks Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor will settle for increased autonomy. I don't think Portugal will be able to offer much in the way of financial support. What do y'all think?

 

[Lalli]

Glad y'all liked Guinea's flag.

So Archangel thinks Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor will settle for increased autonomy. I don't think Portugal will be able to offer much in the way of financial support. What do y'all think?

Leastly economically Portugal is on terrible state. And Spain might be even on worse condition, depending how important tourism was for these countries.

 

[Archangel]

So Archangel thinks Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor will settle for increased autonomy. I don't think Portugal will be able to offer much in the way of financial support. What do y'all think?

There would be considerable identification with Portugal. The regions would have their own resources, several taxes collected locally would go for the regions (as it happens OTL with Madeira and Azores).
All three would be a little over a million people by 1985. Given some years for reconstruction, the financial help will be based on the population and local development indicators, using some variation of the complex formula used OTL for Azores and Madeira.

 

[Mac Gregor]

There would be considerable identification with Portugal. The regions would have their own resources, several taxes collected locally would go for the regions (as it happens OTL with Madeira and Azores).
All three would be a little over a million people by 1985. Given some years for reconstruction, the financial help will be based on the population and local development indicators, using some variation of the complex formula used OTL for Azores and Madeira.

Do you think that Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor would have the same level autonomy as Madeira and the Azores or greater? IOTL, Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor seemed happy to gain independence while Madeira and the Azores never wanted to become independent.

 

[metastasis_d]

Do you think that Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor would have the same level autonomy as Madeira and the Azores or greater? IOTL, Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor seemed happy to gain independence while Madeira and the Azores never wanted to become independent.

Madeira and the Azores didn't have a population made of mostly Africans or Oceanians.

East Timor was invaded by the Japanese and Portugal couldn't really do anything about it, whereas ITTL that didn't happen. So there may not be as much frustration there as OTL. However, OTL the Portuguese was pretty brutal about resource extraction in all their colonies, which no colonized population ever likes. In addition, there was a pretty severe civil war ITTL. I can't see any Timorean or Sao Tomean seeing much to gain out of staying with Portugal, but momentum could keep them in.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Madeira and the Azores didn't have a population made of mostly Africans or Oceanians.

East Timor was invaded by the Japanese and Portugal couldn't really do anything about it, whereas ITTL that didn't happen. So there may not be as much frustration there as OTL. However, OTL the Portuguese was pretty brutal about resource extraction in all their colonies, which no colonized population ever likes. In addition, there was a pretty severe civil war ITTL. I can't see any Timorean or Sao Tomean seeing much to gain out of staying with Portugal, but momentum could keep them in.

Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor never had any sort of armed insurgency during the Overseas War. São Tomé and Príncipe had some civil disobedience early on, but it was nothing the Portuguese couldn't clamp down on.

All of these territories would probably be content with autonomy on the level of the Azores or Madeira. (Cape Verde probably the most so, considering there have been proposals in the last decade for them to join Portugal as an autonomous area in order to gain ascension to the EU)

I do wonder why Cabinda never ended up with Portugal ITTL - Portugal had historic connections to the area, so with a post-1500 POD I reckon the area is far more likely to end up with the Angolan based colony than a Gabonese based colony.

Very interesting. I could see it going either way. I think if the three colonies being discussed East Timor would have the greatest claim for independence due to population and distance from Portugal, although I'm sure most are thankful that Portugal defended them against the Japanese. Concerning Cabinda, true Portugal had some early claims but the French Empire snatched it up in the late 1870s. Germany got the territory after the Great War.

 

[Lalli]

About East Timor: Has Indonesia any claiming for East Timor? In OTL it used socialist regime as excuse to occupying of the country but it is possible ITTL that Indonesia invade East Timor?

 

[Archangel]

Do you think that Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor would have the same level autonomy as Madeira and the Azores or greater? IOTL, Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor seemed happy to gain independence while Madeira and the Azores never wanted to become independent.

Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor never had any sort of armed insurgency during the Overseas War. São Tomé and Príncipe had some civil disobedience early on, but it was nothing the Portuguese couldn't clamp down on.

All of these territories would probably be content with autonomy on the level of the Azores or Madeira. (Cape Verde probably the most so, considering there have been proposals in the last decade for them to join Portugal as an autonomous area in order to gain ascension to the EU)

What Reagent said.

Also the populations of Cape Verde and São Tomé and Principe have some Portuguese ancestry.

Madeira and the Azores didn't have a population made of mostly Africans or Oceanians.

East Timor was invaded by the Japanese and Portugal couldn't really do anything about it, whereas ITTL that didn't happen. So there may not be as much frustration there as OTL. However, OTL the Portuguese was pretty brutal about resource extraction in all their colonies, which no colonized population ever likes. In addition, there was a pretty severe civil war ITTL. I can't see any Timorean or Sao Tomean seeing much to gain out of staying with Portugal, but momentum could keep them in.

East Timor colonial period was caracterized by a quasi-indirect rule, through the local aristocracy.

I think if the three colonies being discussed East Timor would have the greatest claim for independence due to population and distance from Portugal, although I'm sure most are thankful that Portugal defended them against the Japanese.

East Timor was always a very loyal colony, in terms of the average citizen.

About East Timor: Has Indonesia any claiming for East Timor? In OTL it used socialist regime as excuse to occupying of the country but it is possible ITTL that Indonesia invade East Timor?

OTL Indonesia and Portugal's New State had good relations and it was only after the more complicated period of the Revolutionary period in Portugal, when there was a fear that East-Timor could go communist, when the colony was practically abandoned, that Indonesia invaded.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Also the populations of Cape Verde and São Tomé and Principe have some Portuguese ancestry.

The Caboverdeans, especially, consider themselves both European and African - I believe that only slightly more than 50 percent of their genetic heritage is from Africa, and their prevailing sense of themselves is as a creole people rather than an African people. Cape Verde might easily have stayed Portuguese IOTL if the post-Carnation Revolution government hadn't been so anxious to get rid of the colonies, and would easily stay ITTL if Portugal wants to keep it.

I'm not as sure about São Tomé and Principe, which was built on plantation slavery and where the population identifies more as African. Its colonial history was more turbulent, as shown by the Batepá massacre - the unrest on São Tomé was easily contained because it was a small island, but nationalist sentiment still became stronger in the 50s and 60s. But if Portugal offers autonomy, and if it can prevent or resolve the kind of tensions that led to the massacre IOTL, I think they could be persuaded to stay.

 

[SuperFrog]

I would say give Sao Tome and Principe independence and give East Timor dominion* status or independence with the Portuguese monarch as head of state. The resd of the islands should be satisfied with some autonomy.

Good last few updates btw, haven't had a chance to comment.

 

[Mac Gregor]

About East Timor: Has Indonesia any claiming for East Timor? In OTL it used socialist regime as excuse to occupying of the country but it is possible ITTL that Indonesia invade East Timor?

What Reagent said.

Also the populations of Cape Verde and São Tomé and Principe have some Portuguese ancestry.


East Timor colonial period was caracterized by a quasi-indirect rule, through the local aristocracy.



East Timor was always a very loyal colony, in terms of the average citizen.


OTL Indonesia and Portugal's New State had good relations and it was only after the more complicated period of the Revolutionary period in Portugal, when there was a fear that East-Timor could go communist, when the colony was practically abandoned, that Indonesia invaded.

The Caboverdeans, especially, consider themselves both European and African - I believe that only slightly more than 50 percent of their genetic heritage is from Africa, and their prevailing sense of themselves is as a creole people rather than an African people. Cape Verde might easily have stayed Portuguese IOTL if the post-Carnation Revolution government hadn't been so anxious to get rid of the colonies, and would easily stay ITTL if Portugal wants to keep it.

I'm not as sure about São Tomé and Principe, which was built on plantation slavery and where the population identifies more as African. Its colonial history was more turbulent, as shown by the Batepá massacre - the unrest on São Tomé was easily contained because it was a small island, but nationalist sentiment still became stronger in the 50s and 60s. But if Portugal offers autonomy, and if it can prevent or resolve the kind of tensions that led to the massacre IOTL, I think they could be persuaded to stay.

I would say give Sao Tome and Principe independence and give East Timor dominion* status or independence with the Portuguese monarch as head of state. The resd of the islands should be satisfied with some autonomy.

Good last few updates btw, haven't had a chance to comment.

Great comments. To respond to a few..

No, Indonesia doesn't really want East Timor except for the ultranationalists. Plus, the British Commonwealth (specifically Australia) has guaranteed East Timor's security.

I was thinking today that maybe what could work best would be "associated state/free association" like Micronesia has with the USA in OTL. Y'all's thoughts?

 

[metastasis_d]

Great comments. To respond to a few..

No, Indonesia doesn't really want East Timor except for the ultranationalists. Plus, the British Commonwealth (specifically Australia) has guaranteed East Timor's security.

I was thinking today that maybe what could work best would be "associated state/free association" like Micronesia has with the USA in OTL. Y'all's thoughts?

That could work. Would they keep the monarch?

 

[Mac Gregor]

That could work. Would they keep the monarch?

IOTL they usually do. The thing is, Portugal ITTL has little to offer as it is now broke. It can probably offer military protection for the Atlantic territories but East Timor is probably beyond it's reach now.

 

[HongCanucker]

IOTL they usually do. The thing is, Portugal ITTL has little to offer as it is now broke. It can probably offer military protection for the Atlantic territories but East Timor is probably beyond it's reach now.

East Timor sounds like its ripe to begin falling into Indonesia or Australia's orbit at this point.

On a similar note, what is the status of the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance? I know the British did not involve themselves when the civil war broke out, but now that the Royalists have consolidated their control over the country once more, are the accords being brought back especially since Portugal is much more susceptible to foreign attack?