The Union Forever: A TL

Hey Everyone,

Been thinking on how to handle China in this TL. As of 1902, China is still ruled by the Qing Dynasty, and has suffered defeat at the hands of the Japanese during the Second Sino-Japanese War. My questions for the thread are ...

1) What do people think is the most likely course of events for China such as a new dynasty coming to power, Revived Qing Monarchy, Republican Revolution, Communist or Rightwing take over, or Chinese Balkanization? (In my opinion I think the monarchy is probably doomed to fall and an ineffective republic will be set up)

2) What would people like to see happen but no ASB's.

Thanks for the feedback.
 
Closer relations with Prussia.

And since Frederick III, being known for his liberal stance, is the Kaiser in this time then there is a good chance that an alliance will foster between the two countries.
 
Personally, I like to see the US having a greater involvement and influence in the Pacific and East Asia. Though, I will admit I'm heavily biased in seeing this happen so there is likely some very implausible(or already averted if not ASB) future events.
Though, some of the things that could make for that in OTL have been averted. Like not getting Philippines Islands or Perry's suggestion of a base in Modern day Taiwan(rejected in OTL as being impractical which may likely be true).

Though, now I think about it further....I think Korea was annexed by Japan too quickly as Korea was independent for about 15 years OTL. And its leaders(some of them...) did tried hard to preserve Korean Independence. And as the United States already recogized Korea as a sovereign nation(presuming same as OTL) and there isn't the Philippines Islands for the Japanese to point at, the US may be much less willing for the Japanese to control Korea(more so if they see Japan using Korea as a stepping stone to control China, though that view is a major stretch).
 
Closer relations with Prussia.

And since Frederick III, being known for his liberal stance, is the Kaiser in this time then there is a good chance that an alliance will foster between the two countries.

Personally, I like to see the US having a greater involvement and influence in the Pacific and East Asia. Though, I will admit I'm heavily biased in seeing this happen so there is likely some very implausible(or already averted if not ASB) future events.
Though, some of the things that could make for that in OTL have been averted. Like not getting Philippines Islands or Perry's suggestion of a base in Modern day Taiwan(rejected in OTL as being impractical which may likely be true).

Though, now I think about it further....I think Korea was annexed by Japan too quickly as Korea was independent for about 15 years OTL. And its leaders(some of them...) did tried hard to preserve Korean Independence. And as the United States already recogized Korea as a sovereign nation(presuming same as OTL) and there isn't the Philippines Islands for the Japanese to point at, the US may be much less willing for the Japanese to control Korea(more so if they see Japan using Korea as a stepping stone to control China, though that view is a major stretch).

Good points and thanks for the feedback, but I was referring to what would you like to see happen with China in the TL. Anyone have any ideas?

 
Good points and thanks for the feedback, but I was referring to what would you like to see happen with China in the TL. Anyone have any ideas?


I'd kind of like to see China actually fall into different competing states. Each backed by different powers (or a collage of shifting powers). Most TLs see China united or colonized, but rarely different powers unless it is just warlordism.
 
Personally, i think that the balkanization of china would be a very interesting and unique idea. There's so much someone could do with that and it would definitely add flavor to the story. You should give it a try.
 
Personally, i think that the balkanization of china would be a very interesting and unique idea. There's so much someone could do with that and it would definitely add flavor to the story. You should give it a try.
It is interesting, though how plausible it is leaves much to be desired. There's always been a strong Chinese identity, especially among the ethnic Han Chinese, since...really, the Han Dynasty. The Mandate of Heaven and the Chinese world view simply makes a serious Balkanization of China, barring warlordism, practically impossible at this stage of the game. You can form different states (A Manchu state, for example) separate from China, as well as other hinterlands of the former Chinese Empire, but the core of China will be incredibly difficult to keep separated in a serious balkanization attempt. While one can point to Taiwan, Taiwan has always held a distinct culture separate from the mainland, and, even during ROC, the KMT goal was always to unify China eventually (this of course lost steam in the 90's, but both Taiwan and China do still adhere to a One China Policy, even thought they disagree on the definition). At this stage of the game, China is as likely to balkanize as France is...today. Centralization and standardization, as well as the establishment of a Chinese national identity (things such as the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, for example, provide a common base), has at this point made it nearly impossible.

If you want a balkanized China, you're going to need to go back farther in history.
 
*snipped*
Maybe they just have the unification plans permanently postponed? Kinda like with North and South Korea.

Maybe have one faction strongly aligned with the US(who are seen as most friendly of Western nations towards of the Asian nations), another faction(or more) that are puppets for Europe, and maybe another for communist or traditional Chinese monarchy. They all want to unite China under their name, but none of them are strong enough to do it.
 
Maybe they just have the unification plans permanently postponed? Kinda like with North and South Korea.

Maybe have one faction strongly aligned with the US(who are seen as most friendly of Western nations towards of the Asian nations), another faction(or more) that are puppets for Europe, and maybe another for communist or traditional Chinese monarchy. They all want to unite China under their name, but none of them are strong enough to do it.

Interesting idea, I think it is possible to balkanize china in theory; Tibet, Xinjiang, and a Greater Mongolia are easy. The rest of China I believe could be divided into two to three other states with the appropriate PODs. one monarchist state the other Republican perhaps?
 
Maybe they just have the unification plans permanently postponed? Kinda like with North and South Korea.

Maybe have one faction strongly aligned with the US(who are seen as most friendly of Western nations towards of the Asian nations), another faction(or more) that are puppets for Europe, and maybe another for communist or traditional Chinese monarchy. They all want to unite China under their name, but none of them are strong enough to do it.

Interesting idea, I think it is possible to balkanize china in theory; Tibet, Xinjiang, and a Greater Mongolia are easy. The rest of China I believe could be divided into two to three other states with the appropriate PODs. one monarchist state the other Republican perhaps?

If you have two Chinese powers they are going to go at it until one wins and unites the land. If you have three or more all backed by Great Powers they'll be in that situation where if they go all out against one the third will sweep in and be the one who is the victor.

The way I see it would be something where you leave as you say Tibet, Xinjiang, and Greater Mongolia independent. Perhaps a Manchuria under Russian influence (or Japanese depending on how events play out there and in Europe). Then for the rest perhaps a US backed Republic with its capital in Nanking (Shanghai is still likely to remain an 'international city'). A French backed government based in the South (A militarist Republic...perhaps), and a Monarchist North backed by Britain and other powers.

But you'd need some type of catalyst for the 'dividing'. Maybe a really bad Boxer Rebellion.

Just my two cents though.
 
Now that I think about it, it is rather funny that people have been trying to put the Military reality of 1914 into this Timeline. After all, you are talking about a Russian Empire that has been Liberalizing for half a century. It is likely to have much better rail systems than those of OTL Russia in 1914.

And so Britain is closer to Prussia, instead of France.

That isn't surprising, since MacGregor has been hinting at that for the last dozen updates.

Thanks for the support. Yeah, believe it or not I actually intended the U.S. and U.K to be enemies but as I wrote the TL I discovered that with the TL's POD it is nearly impossible to have a believable Anglo-American War. They both share a common language, religion, and are both democracies so it is much more likely that they eventually end up as allies. Cheers!

While the US and Great Britain were likely to end up with close relations, making them appear on opposing sides of a war is certainly not impossible. Conflicts over the border between Venezuela and British Guyana along with Alaska could hurt relations. An Anglo-American War is certainly is hard to accomplish, but not impossible.

Anyway, MacGregor, would you mind if I cleaned up the World Map for you?
 
1903: Domestic and Foreign Developments
1903
Domestic and Foreign Developments


The Beginnings of the Civil Rights Movement

1903 marked the beginning of what would eventually become known as the first wave in the civil rights movement in America. Since the end of the Civil War the racial status quo had been largely maintained arguably due to the long period of Democratic dominance in Congress and the Whitehouse. By the turn of the century however there had been some progress in the north and western parts of the country were Blacks were to a large degree allowed to vote. In the south and some Midwestern states unfortunately African Americans were barred from exercising their franchise by law. This notion however, began to be challenged in the early twentieth century by an ever increasing number of reformers.

It would be impossible to accurately tell the story of the early years of the Civil Rights Movement without first mentioning the most influential of these reformers, Rev. Samuel G. McGuffey and George W. Harley. Harley, an African American from a poor family in Newnan, Georgia, and McGuffey, a wealthy white man from Birmingham, Alabama, both served during their youths in the Spanish American War. At the Battle of Havana, Harley saved McGuffey’s life by dragging the wounded McGuffey to safety into a nearby house after suffering a life threatening wound to the chest. While tending to McGuffey’s wounds, Harley reportedly killed five Spanish militiamen as they tried to enter the house to finish the pair off. This harrowing experience started a deep friendship that would last for the rest of their lives.

Following the war with Spain, McGuffey and Harley moved their families to Atlanta, Georgia. In Atlanta, McGuffey after attending seminary became the minister of an influential Atlanta Baptist church while Harley opened a series of profitable dry goods and retail stores. Although at first Harley and McGuffey were apolitical, the racially motivated 1903 murder of a local black rail worker began their rise to the forefront of the nascent civil rights movement as they together began the first steps of Black-White cooperation in Atlanta for a more inclusive southern society.

Completion of the Central American Canals


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The Opening of the Panama Canal on July 8, 1903. One week after the Americans officially completed their Nicaraguan Canal

As both the Nicaraguan and Panamanian Canals neared completion the race between the American and French Canal companies intensified with speculation and beats being placed around the world as to whom would finish first. In the end, the United States won the race after nearly 10 years of construction when the American built Nicaraguan Canal opened on July 1st, 1903 with the U.S.S. Savannah being the first vessel to cross through the canal from the Caribbean Sea into the Pacific Ocean. The French built Panama Canal although started 2 years earlier finished 1 week later on July 8th. (The often reported anecdote that Napoleon IV flew into such a rage that he broke his sword over his knee when he learned the Americans had beaten the French is unfounded.). Regardless, both canals were heralded around the world as monuments to civilization as the new canals shortening the trip from the Atlantic to the Pacific by weeks.

Chinese Civil War

The Empire of China which had been ruled by the decaying Qing Dynasty since the mid 17th Century finely descended into open civil war on February 12, 1903, when the Emperor Zaitian suddenly died sparking a succession crisis and a scramble for the throne. The Chinese Civil War began with a variety of factions vying for power. In the north, around the capital of Peking, the remaining portions of the Imperial government sought to reestablish control over the disintegrating nation. In the south, a Chinese Republic was proclaimed on March 3rd by Chinese general Chen Ching-Kuo in the city of Canton. In the western parts of the empire, ethnic minorities and warlords fought with the Imperials, the Republicans, and amongst themselves for local control. Of additional importance, the Chinese Civil War further estranged the neighboring powers of Russia and Japan who had over the past decade become increasingly more involved in Chinese affairs.
 
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I wanted to asked, but does Russia not have interest in East Asia in this TL?

Russia, after pressuring Britain and Germany, forced Japan to leave Korea alone as it had its own designs for East Asia. Added on to the fact this sudden annexation would likely hurt its international image and inflame Korean national dissent(most Koreans were very anti-Japanese to the point some would take up arms.)

Edit:
No boxer rebellion?
 
I wanted to asked, but does Russia not have interest in East Asia in this TL?

Russia, after pressuring Britain and Germany, forced Japan to leave Korea alone as it had its own designs for East Asia. Added on to the fact this sudden annexation would likely hurt its international image and inflame Korean national dissent(most Koreans were very anti-Japanese to the point some would take up arms.)

Edit:
No boxer rebellion?

Russia is still interest in East Asia in this TL. The Japanese Annexation of Korea and the Chinese Civil War are bringing Russo-Japanese relations to a fever pitch. Indeed, Korea does heavily resent being annexed, but Russia decided not to go to war over the issue. You are correct in that there is no Boxer Rebellion in the TL. In the TL most of the anti-foreign sentiment is either funneled into the Republican faction or into one of the several warlord groups.
 
1904: Domestic and Foreign Developments
1904

Domestic and Foreign Developments



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President Robert Todd Lincoln

The 1904 Presidential Elections

Riding on a list of accomplishments and an improving economy, President Lincoln and Vice President Goff were unanimously re-nominated as the Republican ticket at the 1904 Republican National Convention in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Democrats had a much more divisive time at their convention in Tulsa, Sequoyah. After much debate and several ballots, the Democrats finally selected Henry G. Davis of Virginia and Jonathan Y. Ferguson of Michigan as their candidates for president and vice president respectively.

During the ensuing campaign Davis tried to paint Lincoln as a busy-body reformer and derided the military buildup as a “Republican scheme to impose despotism on the nation.” Lincoln and the Republican press however did a good job of painting Henry Davis as an anti-modern and senile old man (Davis was 80 years old at the time of the election, making him the oldest presidential candidate in American history). The Republican press got further mileage out of Lincoln competing with southerner Henry Davis by drawing comparisons to the Civil War rivalry between Abraham Lincoln and the despised first president of the Confederacy, Jefferson Davis.

In the end, RTL was returned to office with nearly as many votes as his 1900 victory over President Custer. The Republicans also retained firm control of both houses of Congress. In his second inaugural address RTL focused on two pivotal issues, first warning the enthusiastic crowd that “Our Union must be ever vigilant against the clouds of war gathering abroad” and then stating the need for greater civil rights for women and ethnic minorities at home.

The Napoleonic Centennial


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Napoleon IV
Emperor of the French
1904


1904 was a year of celebration for France’s Second Empire. After years of preparations, the centennial anniversary of Napoleon I’s coronation as Emperor of the French was celebrated in lavish style, dwarfing those of the 1897 Diamond Jubilee for the late Queen Victoria. The celebrations, which started on Napoleon IV’s 48th birthday on March 16th, continued on and off for most of the year, until culminating in one of the largest festivals in history on December 2nd,1904. The French government spared no expense for the festivities. At the center of the celebrations was the enormous equestrian statue of Napoleon I. At a maximum height of 100 meters, the Statue of Napoleon towered over the streets of Paris making it the tallest statue then in existence.

The Napoleonic Centennial is also noteworthy for the ostentatious display of French military strength and technology. Massive numbers of French troops and colonial soldiers from every part of the Empire were present in the capital for the never ending procession of parades and demonstrations, leading U.S. Secretary of State McKinley, the head of the U.S. delegation, to remark that “it would appear that the Emperor has gathered together the largest collection of warriors together since the armies of Xerxes.” Arguably more impressive than the number of troops or the giant Statue of Napoleon was the imperial army’s fleet of dirigeables. The largest of which was the airship L'Aigle Impérial (The Imperial Eagle) which made tours around the continent until lumbering over Paris for the final December 2nd celebrations.

After years of preparation and months of celebration, the capstone event of the centennial took place on a cold Friday morning on December 2nd, 1904. On that day, Napoleon IV made his way through the crowded city streets to Notre Dame Cathedral were he reenacted the coronation of his great uncle to the largest assembly of royalty in history. The ceremony not only marked the 100th anniversary of Napoleon I’s coronation but also the 52nd anniversary of the Bonaparte Restoration under Napoleon III, in a sense cementing the imperial family’s hold on power and legitimacy. Not all observers were impressed, Secretary of War Theodore Roosevelt declared the ceremony to be “nothing more than a who’s who of royalist trash” and the “vain pretentions of mediocrity pretending to be a great conqueror.” Others however viewed the massive display of imperial might in a more sinister light such as British Prime Minister Joseph Chamberlain who is ominously reported to have remarked to an aid that “today the Emperor sees fit to mirror his uncle’s coronation. Let’s hope that tomorrow he doesn’t mirror his appetite for war.”
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