I like it and it makes sense. What I could really use some help with is the likely roles of the minor European Powers and the UK.
The Union Forever: A TL
- Thread starter Mac Gregor
- Start date
I like it and it makes sense. What I could really use some help with is the likely roles of the minor European Powers and the UK.
Not quite sure about the minor European Powers, but Britain would likely play a role in arbitrating a fairly lenient peace (you know, have to keep the balance of power, gotta keep Europe disunited). Them British like being the European power broker, you know. That being said, the Brits can still be roused to a war, if they feel that the balance of power is being greatly threatened (in this case, a unified Northern Germany is perhaps cause for alarm, though, given that it would act as a counterweight to France on the continent, would be looked on perhaps abit favorably). That being said, the Prussians went with the Russians, which doesn't seem too tantalizing (the Great Game, and all).
I wonder, what're the chances that Denmark will try to reclaim land in the Second Schleswig War? Without a unified Germany (and without the Kiel Canal), they control sea traffic out of the Baltic. The Ottomans will most certainly go with the French and the Austrians. They're in the same boat as the Austrians in terms of minorities and the minor Balkan states, the French hold most of their debt, and their perennial enemy, Russia, is with the Prussians. Most definitely going with the Bonaparte-Habsburgs. How the Balkan states go is rather foggy. Greece may still want to go for the Megali idea, and the Serbs want chunks from Austria-Hungary. However, Bulgaria wants chunks out of Greece and Serbia. Rumania would likely go for Austrian chunks of land. However, there is the issue of opportunism. France and Austria would likely have naval superiority, and, without the Entente distracting the Ottomans in Africa, Arabia, and Iraq, the Ottomans will be able to focus on really one major front (the Caucasus). That would certainly put pressure on the Russians, and draw troops away that would normally go after Austria.
Italy is pretty much screwed, to be frank. They're surrounded by hostile states (Ottomans, French, AND Austrians) who have naval superiority in the Mediterranean. They're pretty much @#$%ed in this regard. So expect the Italians to collapse quite quickly (especially if their high command gets OTL level competence...). The Prussians and the Germans are another story entirely. IF the Russians go with the Prussians, then they can probably overrun Galicia, though they'll run into the Caparthians like a brick wall. The Prussian/German front, though is going to be rather interesting. The NGF will likely be on the defensive, or perhaps the Prussians will try for a quick thrust in an attempt to cut France and Austria off from one another (that's unlikely to work though, as reinforcements would likely throw them back). The Austrians will probably remain on the defensive, as they try to hold the SGF and ward away the Prussians and the Russians and the Italians (the Italians, due to geography, being the easiest to hold off).
Overall, this is going to be an interesting and dynamic war. French-Austrians-Ottomans vs Italians-Prussians-Russians, with miscellaneous states falling in between.
Hmm.
I can imagen the Prussians/Germans making a strike through Bavaria to try and get to Austria, something like OTL Schlieffen Plan. Whether or not it would be sucessful is anyone's guess. However, in the event that Prussia/German, Italy, and Russia do win, and Bavaria is integrated into Germany, I can see Bavaria putting up a lot of resistance; which would probibly result in a large amount of German soldiers stationed in Bavaria to "keep the peace"
Yes. I can see Bavaria becoming the alt-Belgium, as well as a Bonapartist France being a bit better than Third Republic France versus Prussia (Napoleon IV seems to be a bit less stupid than his father, but just as ambitious).
I see the opposite of OTL happening. With the French trying to advance through Belgium to take the Rhineland and the Ruhr, to cripple Prussia before Russia mobilizes and trounces Austria along with Prussia. After that the Prussians and Russians would simply overwhelm the French with sheer numbers.
The French will have to invade Belgium, due to the current Franco-Prussian border is about a fifth of the size of the OTL Franco-German border was. Any offensive through there would be a massive bloodbath.
For the most part, Britain will be pro-Prussian/Russian; with reservations about the Russians, but the two allied in OTL so that isn't totally impossible.
The Populace in theSouth German States will be pro-Prussian, but the ruling elite and Military will be Pro-Entente.
I think the Ottomans are a shoe in for being Pro-Entente, but then again they may not like how France feasted on Ottoman Egypt and Libya.
Without Britain in the mix, the US will care even less about intervening in WW1 than OTL.
The French will have to invade Belgium, due to the current Franco-Prussian border is about a fifth of the size of the OTL Franco-German border was. Any offensive through there would be a massive bloodbath.
For the most part, Britain will be pro-Prussian/Russian; with reservations about the Russians, but the two allied in OTL so that isn't totally impossible.
The Populace in theSouth German States will be pro-Prussian, but the ruling elite and Military will be Pro-Entente.
I think the Ottomans are a shoe in for being Pro-Entente, but then again they may not like how France feasted on Ottoman Egypt and Libya.
Without Britain in the mix, the US will care even less about intervening in WW1 than OTL.
Wasn't British involvement in WWI caused by the invasion of Belgium under the Schlieffen Plan in the first place?
I doubt that, actually. The French don't have any real necessity to strike through Belgium first, beyond the political disaster of it all, and can move through Bavaria and the other SGF states to strike at Prussia. The factors for the the French aren't there for a Schlieffen, For France and Austria, any war with Prussia, Russia, and Italy will have to end in a long term struggle. France isn't in a position to march into Berlin and force the Prussians to surrender, for example. They also don't have much of a need to bypass Prussian and German field fortifications, considering just how wide the front with the Prussians is (from Silesia to the Saarland).
Italy is a far easier target for a knockout blow, and a necessary one, at that. If France can take out Northern Italy, then Italy is forced to capitulate, losing both the majority of its industry, and, being cut off from the rest of the world by an Entente blockade, is starved of ammunition. This closes both the Italian front for France and Austria, and also secures an alternate means of transporting troops over to Austria, assuming Bavaria is still intact. Oh, and secures the Med. for the Entente, and allows France/Austria to fully blockade the Baltic and the White Sea. Which isn't going to end well for Russia, economically.
In all honesty, I'm willing to bet on the French-Austrian-Ottoman alliance here. Assuming of course Britain and Japan don't jump in, of course (you can never trust 'em).
Honestly, anyone with logic would assume that the Prussians and Russians would just crush the Austrians and then move on to take France. The South German States will have a bit of a loyalty problem if they are going to attack a fellow German state merely to preserve French Hegemony in Europe. Expect South German Troops to be effective as Ukrainian and Polish Troops were in the Austrian Army, espically once Conscription kicks in.
Are you honestly suggesting that the French are just so damn awesome that they can attack the Italians and Prussians at the same time and win? Also, that the Austrians will attack Italy also? Holy Christ are the Austrians screwed in that scenario. Having their Army between Serbia and Russia was bad in OTL and they got absolutely slaughtered and needed the Germans to save them, one between Prussia, Italy, Russia, and Serbia will have the Austrians get absolutely crushed... by everyone. If you think Prussia is in Trouble, imagine the front the Austrians will be holding. That is the definition of a nightmare. The Austrians were slaughtered by a crappy Russian Army that had to also fight the Germans at the same time. The Russians will run through Galicia and into Hungary, the Prussians into Bohemia like a hot knife through butter.
Face it. This Scenario may have Entente Naval Dominance, but the Entente is going to get thrashed on land.
The Alps make any offensive into Italy very difficult. The French will have to send forces to help the Austrians hold the line. While also having to deal with the Prussians? You honestly think France can accomplish all this at the same time?
First, can you calm down abit?
Plus, you assume that the Russian Army was crappy. Historically, it wasn't, Russia actually had one of the most well-equipped and well-trained standing armies in the opening round of the war, better then the Germans (all being equipped with howitzers, etc,). Their main problem were absolutely shoddy commanders (Brusilov aside), and, as the war went on, the Central Power blockade of the Black Sea and Baltic started to wear at the Russian economy (plus morale started to plummet as time went on with internal dissent, and all).
That being said, Austria is in a pickle, as, even with French support and with the Ottomans (who should do better than OTL, since they aren't under attack from Egypt and Palestine, and facing an Entente blockade) drawing some Russian armies away to to Caucasus, they're likely in for it, even without their initial Serbian offensive.
That being said, it's a race against the clock for both sets of Alliances. Can the Austrians with some French support (depending on how the Balkan Wars play out, perhaps some Ottoman, though that's probably not all that decisive) last long enough against the Russians and the Prussians for Italy to capitulate, or will Italy last long enough for the opposite to happen?
My personal opinion is that Italy is less likely to last than Austria, considering Austria also has the Carpathians to fight the Russians in (and held off fairly well, all things considered in OTL), as well as the hills and rivers of Central Europe against the Prussians. It depends, of course, and is likely to go either way.
Looking at the maps, will there be a more updated version coming soon? Actually, in addition to Prussian Unification of Germany, a French-aligned Austria and Ottomans might mean that one of the Balkan Wars would be a potential spark for a general European War (how cliched...).
That being said, if (a big if) the war does draw in British intervention, I'd venture a guess and say they'd side with the French, Austrians, and Ottomans, since they're defending the status quo, and thus more or less likely to keep the balance of power, whereas the Prussians and Russians are seeking to throw the whole system out the window. If the plan for the Prussians is to go for the dismemberment of Austria, and a Super-Germany, or a Russian Bosphorus, then Britain is likely to go with the French (no matter how much animosity there is between them), simply to keep that from happening. If Prussia goes for more limited gains, though, perhaps the unification of the North German Federation into a Germany, perhaps with the SGF thrown in, and some land concessions from Austria for everyone, then Britain isn't likely to act.
I was pointing out that since the front includes the South German states, and that the French can launch offensives from those states, instead of needing to go through Belgium. I never implied that the SGF would provide reliable troops.
No. I never suggested an initial offensive against the Prussians. I suggested that the French focus on knocking Italy out of the war, (considering the poor state of their army OTL, this is entirely possible), while supporting the Austrians on the defensive.
No. I stated that the Austrians would remain completely on the defensive, unlike in OTL where they attempted to knock out Serbia out quickly, and devoted a number of field armies, and a significant part of their standing army, which could've been used to hold the line in Galicia. That being said, the Austrians will do poorly, but aren't going to collapse that quickly. Galicia may be lost, but the Carpathians were still a rather formidable obstacle for the Russians prior to German reinforcements (and the shifting of Austrian field armies away from Serbia).
Plus, you assume that the Russian Army was crappy. Historically, it wasn't, Russia actually had one of the most well-equipped and well-trained standing armies in the opening round of the war, better then the Germans (all being equipped with howitzers, etc,). Their main problem were absolutely shoddy commanders (Brusilov aside), and, as the war went on, the Central Power blockade of the Black Sea and Baltic started to wear at the Russian economy (plus morale started to plummet as time went on with internal dissent, and all).
That being said, Austria is in a pickle, as, even with French support and with the Ottomans (who should do better than OTL, since they aren't under attack from Egypt and Palestine, and facing an Entente blockade) drawing some Russian armies away to to Caucasus, they're likely in for it, even without their initial Serbian offensive.
It's not quite as one-sided as you make it out to be on land, but generally yes. Still, if the war drags out in the long term, I would bet on the French Entente, considering they control the seas (and thus can choke Russia, Prussia, and, if they're still in it, Italy, into submission).
I think you're overestimating the Italians, considering their absolutely terrible strategic and tactical leadership during the war (their Chief of Staff OTL, Luigi Cadorna not only reintroduced decimation, believed in mass assault, but also the execution of any officers whose units retreated), and their completely poor readiness to wage war. When Italy went to war in 1915, they were able to mobilize thirty six divisions (~900,000), but only had 120 modern artillery pieces (as well as being quite short on ammunition). The poor state of the Italian Army hasn't, that I'm aware of, been butterflied away, so it's possible that the Italians collapse before the Austrians do. Moreover, it depends on what you mean by deal, as I didn't suggest that France launch a major offensive against the Prussians (only on the Italians).
That being said, it's a race against the clock for both sets of Alliances. Can the Austrians with some French support (depending on how the Balkan Wars play out, perhaps some Ottoman, though that's probably not all that decisive) last long enough against the Russians and the Prussians for Italy to capitulate, or will Italy last long enough for the opposite to happen?
My personal opinion is that Italy is less likely to last than Austria, considering Austria also has the Carpathians to fight the Russians in (and held off fairly well, all things considered in OTL), as well as the hills and rivers of Central Europe against the Prussians. It depends, of course, and is likely to go either way.
Looking at the maps, will there be a more updated version coming soon? Actually, in addition to Prussian Unification of Germany, a French-aligned Austria and Ottomans might mean that one of the Balkan Wars would be a potential spark for a general European War (how cliched...).
Unless the war drags on really long, I doubt they'd ever call for a complete dismemberment of A-H. A super-Germany in alliance with Russia would be the worst nightmare of British diplomats seeking to preserve the balance of power on the continent. If a super-Germany does form, and the Austrians are dismembered utterly, then Britain will have to take notice, since a super-Germany will be a significant European hegemon with the potential to threaten British interests, especially if they have a solid alliance with the Russians. Course, this isn't likely to happen if the war is short (a year or two, say), as no one is yet interested in massive land-grabs (just exchanges of border territories) or in the utter defeat of another side. If it lasts as long or is as devastating as WWI, however...I agree with Curly This means A partitioned Habsburg empire.
With a big germany
That being said, if (a big if) the war does draw in British intervention, I'd venture a guess and say they'd side with the French, Austrians, and Ottomans, since they're defending the status quo, and thus more or less likely to keep the balance of power, whereas the Prussians and Russians are seeking to throw the whole system out the window. If the plan for the Prussians is to go for the dismemberment of Austria, and a Super-Germany, or a Russian Bosphorus, then Britain is likely to go with the French (no matter how much animosity there is between them), simply to keep that from happening. If Prussia goes for more limited gains, though, perhaps the unification of the North German Federation into a Germany, perhaps with the SGF thrown in, and some land concessions from Austria for everyone, then Britain isn't likely to act.
Last edited:
I expect France to choose a Germany first strategy. Italy is in my opinion nothing more than an annoyance which can be dealt by assuming a defensive position on the Alps
Let them bleed themselves on a heavily fortified montainous battleground
Seizing the Rhineland will be the main objective to gain control of an industrial region
A French empire that keeps Alsace Lorraine and with access to Brazil raw materials will be more industrialized and stable.
I am not asking for a French wank but for a more balanced war with a less incompetent french leadership anda better artillery ( Nappy IV could have a thing for emulating his Grand uncle)
Let them bleed themselves on a heavily fortified montainous battleground
Seizing the Rhineland will be the main objective to gain control of an industrial region
A French empire that keeps Alsace Lorraine and with access to Brazil raw materials will be more industrialized and stable.
I am not asking for a French wank but for a more balanced war with a less incompetent french leadership anda better artillery ( Nappy IV could have a thing for emulating his Grand uncle)
I expect France to choose a Germany first strategy. Italy is in my opinion nothing more than an annoyance which can be dealt by assuming a defensive position on the Alps
Let them bleed themselves on a heavily fortified montainous battleground
Seizing the Rhineland will be the main objective to gain control of an industrial region
A French empire that keeps Alsace Lorraine and with access to Brazil raw materials will be more industrialized and stable.
I am not asking for a French wank but for a more balanced war with a less incompetent french leadership anda better artillery ( Nappy IV could have a thing for emulating his Grand uncle)
Very good speculation ya'll. I hope to have an update coming soon.
Two more specific questions for the board though...
1) Who would probably win in an early 20th Century War between an Entente Impériale(France, Austria-Hungry, and the Ottoman Empire) and a Russo-Prussian-Italian Alliance?
2) Who would Britain and America favor and what is the likelihood of them getting involved?
Thanks for the feedback
It would be a tough fight, but I'd give victory to the R-P-I Alliance. Italy is going to be in a tough spot with being surrounded and all (which might leave Italy pulling a neutral position until things swing Russia and Prussia's way).
The Austrians are also kind of in a hard position. Bordering Prussia and Russia on a long front they also have to defend against Italy (if it joins right away), and with Romania and Serbia likely to join in on the Russo-Prussia side they are just going to be overwhelmed. Which leaves France with whatever South Germans they can browbeat into fighting for them in preventing German unification under Prussia. The Ottomans just can't project power that far, and with Austria eventually folding they are going to be feeling the Russian's full attention (which might bring the UK on their side to prevent the fall of the Constantinople and the Straits).
Britain would be neutral and would trade freely with both sides I'd imagine and only swing to one side or another if the European balance of power is upset or their own interests are threatened.
The US would be much the same as Britain, neutral and trading freely, but in this case you might see much of the German descended population supporting Prussia but the 'elites' supporting the French. Which way the government might swing really depends on the President and his views I'd imagine.
It really depends on when and how the war starts. The later the war starts, the more powerful the Prussia-Russia-Italy alliance becomes, as Russia industrializes, and railroads are laid, their ability to mobilize and move their standing field armies (once again, should still be top-notch) dramatically increases. How the war begins also is important, as it dictates the opening strategies of the alliances. If, say, its a Balkan conflict that sparks the war, and depending on how the Balkans looks like, the Austrians and the Ottomans will have to commit their initial forces into that region (which takes away from potential offensives into the Caucasus, as well as the Austrian ability to defend their border). In such an event, I expect the Entente to do worse then usual, as the initial momentum will be on the side of the PRI alliance. In addition, its less likely to bring in Great Britain on their side, and thus is probably worse off. If its German Unification, it depends on whether the Entente declare war or the Prussians declare war. Once again, the aggressor matters in this regard (for potential Anglo-Japanese [I assume this alliance hasn't yet been butterflied] intervention). It is fairly inconclusive, though, as the policies, military doctrine and equipment, etc, can push it either way. If the Austrians get their @#$% together and are able to successfully conduct a fighting retreat/defense without a Serbian offensive, then it might be enough to push it in the favor of the Entente. If the Italians are able to get their @#$% together and operate as a competent military force, they'll likewise be able to bring it in the favor of the PRI bloc. The PRI has a strong starting advantage on land, however, as well as the likely ability to bring in more minor powers (which can swing it in their favor). However, the Entente is somewhat more fiscally sound, and, most importantly, has access to the world economy (thanks to naval superiority). The latter especially is important, as they're in a better position to thus buy war materiel from foreign powers and free up more manpower for the army, as well as being able to draw on the French colonial empire for manpower, over time. Russia, Austria, and the Ottomans are very susceptible to internal unrest, however.
As for the US and Great Britain, that's tricky. The US population, with a significant German and Italian immigration (and near nonexistent immigration from France) is likely to be more sympathetic towards Prussia and Italy. The US generally has no reason to intervene, however, despite popular sentiment, though France is likely to cut the PRI telegraph lines across the Atlantic. However, since the Entente will have a large surface fleet, and thus can blockade merchant ships without sinking them, they're not likely to draw in American intervention, thus. Economically, also, the United States will be tied more to France then to either Prussia and Russia.
Great Britain is another can of worms entirely. Britain is extremely wary of Russia (and the Anglo-Japanese alliance reinforces this, as Japan is far more antagonistic towards Russia than France, thanks to national and regional interests), though the celebrated history of Anglo-French relations does stand out. France, although a very strong naval power and a major imperial power, and thus a potential competitor with Britain on the world stage, is more likely to attempt to maintain the status quo in Europe, and the balance of power. Prussia seeks to overthrow this and establish itself as the predominant power in Europe and, with a strong alliance with Russia, poses an intolerable threat to British influence. Britain has always maintained a policy of keeping Europe disunited, and, with Russia looming over India, is thus more likely to side with the Entente, despite having a German monarch. Actually, I believe it was Edward VII who was one of the most outspoken opponents of an Anglo-German alliance in OTL, so there is always that.
A France with Alsace-Lorraine and a NGF without the SGF would likely be roughly equal in population, and, with larger colonies for markets and raw materials, and without the crippling indemnities of the Franco-Prussian War (which were historically harsher then the Treaty of Versailles), France is likely more industrialized than Prussia/NGF. The Italians are more industrialized than, say, the Ottomans as a whole, but are, as a whole, worth less to the war effort (once again, horrible shape of the Italian Army), as the Ottomans can tie up a great number of Russian armies, as well as project into the Balkans (the Italians will likely have great difficulty even defending themselves). Russia is the gorilla in the room, however, and there will likely be more minor states aligning with the PRI bloc (more territory to grab from Austrians and Ottomans).I expect France to choose a Germany first strategy. Italy is in my opinion nothing more than an annoyance which can be dealt by assuming a defensive position on the Alps
Let them bleed themselves on a heavily fortified montainous battleground
Seizing the Rhineland will be the main objective to gain control of an industrial region
A French empire that keeps Alsace Lorraine and with access to Brazil raw materials will be more industrialized and stable.
I am not asking for a French wank but for a more balanced war with a less incompetent french leadership anda better artillery ( Nappy IV could have a thing for emulating his Grand uncle)
So, thinking this through, the potential minor powers you have joining would include:
Serbia and Montenegro
Bulgaria
Greece
Denmark
Rumania
Of these powers, Serbia is most certainly going to side with Russia. Greece has great claims on the Ottomans (Megali idea), but may be persuaded to remain neutral or to side with the Entente with land from Serbia and Entente naval supremacy. Bulgaria has claims on practically everyone, and Rumania can similarly be tempted with land from either Austria and Russia. Denmark, while it does have claims on the NGF, is likely to remain neutral despite occupying a strategic position as the gateway to the Baltic (depends, though).
That being said, its up to you how they fall. A few butterflies can change the course of the war. After all, who would expect an Austro-Hungarian Tannenberg (which is possible. The logistical problems which led to it for the Russians won't likely be resolved for quite some time, at least until 1920, or beyond).
Last edited:
The war could go either way depending on the quality of the military leadership. who will realize first that modern warfare is different from napoleonic battles ? I vouch for my country
In France you can take out most of the free mason generals like Gallieni. Somebody like Castelnau would probably rise in a deeply catholic and conservative French Empire, Foch also will have an important role
One thing you may remeber is that the Third Republic had many conflicts with the military. The politicians were worried of a coup as most senir officers were from catholic families
In an Empire the military will not be under such a tight control they will ask for something like the OTL german organization
As for Alliances Britain will be the wild card: Are they still worried about french Hegemony in Europe and the colonial conflicts or are they worried about balance of power and the rising power of Russia
In France you can take out most of the free mason generals like Gallieni. Somebody like Castelnau would probably rise in a deeply catholic and conservative French Empire, Foch also will have an important role
One thing you may remeber is that the Third Republic had many conflicts with the military. The politicians were worried of a coup as most senir officers were from catholic families
In an Empire the military will not be under such a tight control they will ask for something like the OTL german organization
As for Alliances Britain will be the wild card: Are they still worried about french Hegemony in Europe and the colonial conflicts or are they worried about balance of power and the rising power of Russia
Pretty much. This war is much more even than it might appear at first, and thus you can write it however you want. It's possible the PRI alliance scores a decisive victory to start with (cuts France off from Austria, etc,), or perhaps the Entente wins a Tannenberg-equivalent against the Russians. How military reform and organization has gone through in these countries is another major issue (after all, Italy does actually have the potential to substantially improve itself, considering their completely horrendous preparation for WWI).
So in essence, you can write the war however you want. It's pretty open to you as to how the war ends/goes.