The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)

[CaedmonCousland]

I hope this answers some initial questions about international reactions to the Glorious Revolution.

Oh, wow. That it did. Guess I see several possibilities that aid Spain (and not necessarily other anti-French actors). Make France focus on England over the Spanish Netherland, likely force the English, Dutch, and Holy Roman Empire have to deal with the French instead of the Spanish Netherlands bear the brunt as usual. Almost a reflection of the War of Reunions where no one rallied to Spain. Louis and France might also be willing to do these despite the Spanish Netherlands having been such an important target, since of course Spain can't stand against France alone once they've broken their other enemies.

And so Willem traded Spain for England.

 

[King of Danes]

Leeeet’s goooo! The drama in Britain is not over yet!

 

[TimTurner]

Currently on the edge of my seat.

 

[X Oristos]

I think the current spanish policy could have been reinforced by the Revolt of the Barretinas. If anything, Catalonia was not ready for war.

There a lot of butterflies from the current chapter:

- No need to have a field army of 9,000 under Noailles in Catalonia. They are released to serve elsewhere.

- There is no need for Humieres to have a 24-32,000 army in Flanders.

- With James having a 7,000 Catholic Army at his beck and call, I don't see William sending 6,000 men (the theoretical number they should have been in OTL was 10k) to the continent under Churchill. He needs to keep an experienced field army in England proper, while strengthening Scotland as well. While keeping an army in England, he needs to start making plans to invade Ulster as well.

- The Emperor doesn't receive 2500 Catholic Irish soldiers as in OTL.

- Waldeck's OTL army is released as well. If we exclude the allies, the States-General's portion of his army was perhaps 12,000 (it started in 1689 with 7000 men).

- It won't be very plausible now for Liege to join the Allies. Liege raised 6,000 men that were used in garrison duty, releasing a similar number for field army duty.

- The spanish Army of Flanders of some 10,000 men is lost for the Allied OOB.

- Lastly, the Armada del Mar Océano is not in the war. In OTL it had concentrated 15-20 warships in the Mediterranean. Likewise there are no Spanish and Neapolitan privateers praying on french trade. I don't count the 27-29 galleys of the spanish monarchy. Moreover the Flanders Armada (4 galleons, 9 frigates, 2 pataches in 1685) stays at port. Overall, the French can further concentrate their naval power in the Channel.

This is a nice source https://redsashgames.com/ewExternalFiles/AOF Commentary.pdf

As you can see, the ATL developments allow the French to concentrate their forces, while the League has fewer troops and a worse strategic position. The French now have the numbers to focus on what they considered the main theater: the Rhine. Having said that, I sincerely doubt that the French can spare the resources to invade England along with the 7,000 Jacobite troops. What I consider as more plausible, it so send reinforcements to Tyrconnell, quite possibly a somewhat stronger french expedition than in OTL, along with the Irish Regiments. I think it might be plausible to send the Scottish Jacobites to reinforce the Bonnie Dundee, prolonging his struggle.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Man I dunno if it's due to TTL circumstances or if William was really just like that but you're honestly making me hate him, I really just want to see him falter and get a nice hook kick to his pride.

Other that, great chapter as always, it will be interesting to see what France will act from now on, they have a perfect window to rush into the Dutch Republic and overrun it while William is still in England and could use the fact to either bottle him up there or force his armies to move to try and liberate the Republic and allow James and his Jacobite troops to move in. Louis XIV and his ministers are definitely thinking hard about this one.

 

[Archduke]

I think the current spanish policy could have been reinforced by the Revolt of the Barretinas. If anything, Catalonia was not ready for war.

There a lot of butterflies from the current chapter:

- No need to have a field army of 9,000 under Noailles in Catalonia. They are released to serve elsewhere.

- There is no need for Humieres to have a 24-32,000 army in Flanders.

- With James having a 7,000 Catholic Army at his beck and call, I don't see William sending 6,000 men (the theoretical number they should have been in OTL was 10k) to the continent under Churchill. He needs to keep an experienced field army in England proper, while strengthening Scotland as well. While keeping an army in England, he needs to start making plans to invade Ulster as well.

- The Emperor doesn't receive 2500 Catholic Irish soldiers as in OTL.

- Waldeck's OTL army is released as well. If we exclude the allies, the States-General's portion of his army was perhaps 12,000 (it started in 1689 with 7000 men).

- It won't be very plausible now for Liege to join the Allies. Liege raised 6,000 men that were used in garrison duty, releasing a similar number for field army duty.

- The spanish Army of Flanders of some 10,000 men is lost for the Allied OOB.

- Lastly, the Armada del Mar Océano is not in the war. In OTL it had concentrated 15-20 warships in the Mediterranean. Likewise there are no Spanish and Neapolitan privateers praying on french trade. I don't count the 27-29 galleys of the spanish monarchy. Moreover the Flanders Armada (4 galleons, 9 frigates, 2 pataches in 1685) stays at port. Overall, the French can further concentrate their naval power in the Channel.

This is a nice source https://redsashgames.com/ewExternalFiles/AOF Commentary.pdf

As you can see, the ATL developments allow the French to concentrate their forces, while the League has fewer troops and a worse strategic position. The French now have the numbers to focus on what they considered the main theater: the Rhine. Having said that, I sincerely doubt that the French can spare the resources to invade England along with the 7,000 Jacobite troops. What I consider as more plausible, it so send reinforcements to Tyrconnell, quite possibly a somewhat stronger french expedition than in OTL, along with the Irish Regiments. I think it might be plausible to send the Scottish Jacobites to reinforce the Bonnie Dundee, prolonging his struggle.

It needs to be emphasized that the Brussels Convention only neutralises the Spanish Netherlands. France and Spain don’t have a general truce and can still fight elsewhere. Also Louis XIV only gave them 1 year, so he might just invade next year. The Convention for Spain was mainly about buying time and punishing William while for France it was about buying time and giving them resources against England. France wasn’t expecting Europe to seriously resist it so delaying a war in Spanish Netherlands is a positive for them. Meanwhile, France wants to create a distraction against England but also wants to do it at low cost. On the other side, Spain is gambling on France getting heavily involved in English affairs to keep the war away from the Spanish Netherlands king-term. Otherwise, Spain won’t have accomplished much. Spain might also be hoping that the war stays focused on Germany, but there’s nothing stopping the French from going to Catalonia or into Italy. In fact, without the Spanish Netherlands to worry about, the French might get even more involved in Catalonia than OTL.

 

[X Oristos]

Also Louis XIV only gave them 1 year, so he might just invade next year.

True! That's why i didn't mention anything on the italian front, since the spanish participation/butterflies begin only in 1690. The next year is tabula rasa.

It needs to be emphasized that the Brussels Convention only neutralises the Spanish Netherlands. France and Spain don’t have a general truce and can still fight elsewhere.

Indeed! However, it would make no sense fighting in Catalonia while the exposed (even more due to the different 1683-1684) Spanish Netherlands remain neutral. Especially considering that even in OTL Louis didn't make a major effort in Catalonia at the very beginning, even though the memory of the revolt was very recent. To invade Catalonia right now would go against his high strategy.

Meanwhile, France wants to create a distraction against England but also wants to do it at low cost. On the other side, Spain is gambling on France getting heavily involved in English affairs to keep the war away from the Spanish Netherlands king-term. Otherwise, Spain won’t have accomplished much. Spain might also be hoping that the war stays focused on Germany, but there’s nothing stopping the French from going to Catalonia or into Italy.

Sensible policies for both Spain and France.

It seems plausible that the Spanish will get their wish. Even with more forces available for Rhineland, the French cannot hope for a decisive victory. Even though they have the numbers to secure Cologne, Bonn, Mainz and Koblenz, a stalemate seems much more plausible than a quick victory.

I also think that the Spanish are right to hope that France will be heavily involved in english affairs, I just think that they lack the numbers to invade England. Having said that, a prolonged war in Ireland seems very plausible.

When it comes to Italy, the Spanish have an opportunity to avoid a french invasion. The French were trying to bully Victor Amadeus to join them, true. I doubt they would succeed to get Savoy to join them. However, Savoy joining the League and bringing war to Italy largely depends on Spain. A neutral Spain makes Victor Amadeus' position rather uncomfortable. It would be easier for the Savoyards to get a modicum of security by joining Spain in an "armed neutrality" league. After all, according to the "Resilience of the Spanish Monarchy" :

In 1690 one of the attractions of the anti-French coalition for the duke of Savoy was the prospect of Carlos II’s naval forces defending the county of Nice against those of Louis XIV, something which the virtually non-existent navy of the duke could not do.

 

[Vitruvius]

A surprising development. I'm starting to wonder if this is headed in the direction of a Stuart Catholic Ireland. ie James employs the Irish Brigade in an ATL Williamite war and manages to secure control of Ireland.

 

[X Oristos]

A surprising development. I'm starting to wonder if this is headed in the direction of a Stuart Catholic Ireland. ie James employs the Irish Brigade in an ATL Williamite war and manages to secure control of Ireland.

At least I hope not to have a debate on the religion of Ireland as well. Let's go one year at a time. Still in early 1689.

 

[Vitruvius]

At least I hope not to have a debate on the religion of Ireland as well. Let's go one year at a time. Still in early 1689.

Yeah, I certainly do not want to start another debate. I'm honestly a little taken aback over how strongly people feel about William of Orange, not that I am trying to disrespect anyone's opinions. I guess to me he's just a historical figure but I can see now that he can still provoke or more visceral reaction.

 

[X Oristos]

Yeah, I certainly do not want to start another debate. I'm honestly a little taken aback over how strongly people feel about William of Orange, not that I am trying to disrespect anyone's opinions. I guess to me he's just a historical figure but I can see now that he can still provoke or more visceral reaction.

Well put.

 

[Prince of Permsia]

You guys should go to Ireland, especially Northern Ireland. They have very strong feelings about William of Orange.

 

[Vitruvius]

Sure, I understand the issues in the abstract. I guess I just mentally don't associate the modern political context with historical figures in such a personal way. But I'm a fourth generation American with an Irish Catholic father and a Protestant mother so I have a family and a cultural/national background in which those issues are not particularly salient despite a notional connection to them.

Obviously people with different backgrounds or life experiences are going to have significantly different perspectives. So I suppose its an important reminder that things may be perceived in a very different context than what one is assuming.

 

[Diego]

Obviously ignoring the sentiments of the involved and even the question of "is it plausible?" my 20th century born mind thinks that the best the Spanish could do at this situation would be to align itself with France and first try to make a deal with them to extrincate their Spanish asses from that problem called Netherlands, and the best deal for them would be to split Savoy by joining France into bullying the Duchy into submission receiving Lombardy as compensation for losing the Netherlands, the dispossessed duke could then receive Netherlands (and a set of strings going from their attachments on his members all the way to Paris in the form of a perpetual alliance with France) as "compensation" for his loss in Italy, maybe France could even let the duke keep Savoy.

Second, Spain could help France and the Irish Brigade retaking Ireland, that way they would inherit that land a generation later and probably gain some extra manpower and naval bases to use in future wars against England.

With that scheme France and Milan gain a secure and natural frontier against each other in the form of the Alps, it makes Milan and their allies in Italy better protected, more importantly Spain gets away from the French path leaving the Dutch, the English and the Germans to fight France meanwhile Spain can focus elsewhere most probably in the Americas and the Mediterranean.

 

[chrnno]

Obviously ignoring the sentiments of the involved and even the question of "is it plausible?" my 20th century born mind thinks that the best the Spanish could do at this situation would be to align itself with France and first try to make a deal with them to extrincate their Spanish asses from that problem called Netherlands, and the best deal for them would be to split Savoy by joining France into bullying the Duchy into submission receiving Lombardy as compensation for losing the Netherlands, the dispossessed duke could then receive Netherlands (and a set of strings going from their attachments on his members all the way to Paris in the form of a perpetual alliance with France) as "compensation" for his loss in Italy, maybe France could even let the duke keep Savoy.

Second, Spain could help France and the Irish Brigade retaking Ireland, that way they would inherit that land a generation later and probably gain some extra manpower and naval bases to use in future wars against England.

With that scheme France and Milan gain a secure and natural frontier against each other in the form of the Alps, it makes Milan and their allies in Italy better protected, more importantly Spain gets away from the French path leaving the Dutch, the English and the Germans to fight France meanwhile Spain can focus elsewhere most probably in the Americas and the Mediterranean.

The problem is that France would hold onto this just long enough for them to defeat everyone else, or at least think they did, then promptly invade Spain.

It is said that countries don't have friends just interests, but today there is at least some reticence and backlash to doing whatever(for most at least), if only out of bureaucracy and inertia. At this point in time there very much isn't. If a country can expand its border by conquering neighbours it will try to expand, that is simply a given. That is, after all, how all significant countries came to be.

The only way any sort of France and Spain alliance could meaningfully last is if a single monarch ended up ruling them both and well... Good luck to the one handling all the consequences and difficulties thereof. And even if someone did it is just a matter of time before a heir is simply not up for the task.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

The problem is that France would hold onto this just long enough for them to defeat everyone else, or at least think they did, then promptly invade Spain.

It is said that countries don't have friends just interests, but today there is at least some reticence and backlash to doing whatever(for most at least), if only out of bureaucracy and inertia. At this point in time there very much isn't. If a country can expand its border by conquering neighbours it will try to expand, that is simply a given. That is, after all, how all significant countries came to be.

The only way any sort of France and Spain alliance could meaningfully last is if a single monarch ended up ruling them both and well... Good luck to the one handling all the consequences and difficulties thereof. And even if someone did it is just a matter of time before a heir is simply not up for the task.

Honestly I think the only way for Spain and France to actually be friends is if France conquers Milan and the Spanish Netherlands from them and the Spanish somehow forgive that because I see those two(Milan less but definitely the Netherlands) as the main thing that prevents any potential friendship as France always had a dream of expanding into the Low Countries region given it's wealth and they will step on anyone's toes to get it.

If this war goes the way I think it goes where France gets the Spanish Netherlands and Louis XIV dies soon after, I could see Spanish-French relations becoming like the Austrian-French one of OTL in the 18th century where they're not exactly friends but they can be allied together, especially if they don't have conflicting areas of interest anymore. Plus like I said before, I think Spain losing the Netherlands is good for them because they don't need to be on constant fear of war footing against France because of it, they need a long period of peace so they can enact reforms and fill their coffers once again.

 

[isabella]

Honestly I think the only way for Spain and France to actually be friends is if France conquers Milan and the Spanish Netherlands from them and the Spanish somehow forgive that because I see those two(Milan less but definitely the Netherlands) as the main thing that prevents any potential friendship as France always had a dream of expanding into the Low Countries region given it's wealth and they will step on anyone's toes to get it.

If this war goes the way I think it goes where France gets the Spanish Netherlands and Louis XIV dies soon after, I could see Spanish-French relations becoming like the Austrian-French one of OTL in the 18th century where they're not exactly friends but they can be allied together, especially if they don't have conflicting areas of interest anymore. Plus like I said before, I think Spain losing the Netherlands is good for them because they don't need to be on constant fear of war footing against France because of it, they need a long period of peace so they can enact reforms and fill their coffers once again.

Pretty ASB. Spain would NEVER forgive such loss, at least not for many generations. And while they would resent but could accept the loss of the Netherlands, they would NEVER EVER renounce to reconquer Milan as that loss would put in danger Naples, giving them more reasons for fight against France

 

[X Oristos]

Second, Spain could help France and the Irish Brigade retaking Ireland, that way they would inherit that land a generation later and probably gain some extra manpower and naval bases to use in future wars against England.

Spain is a Great Power, even though it is the weakest of its peers. A Stuart bride with a crownless father is of limited value to Spain. They will either have to cancel the betrothal and suffer a major loss of face, or try to assist James in recovering his realm. I don't see any other paths other than the above two.

Having said that, assistance to James can come in various forms, from a direct intervention all the way down to providing some money and men - private individuals of course, the same kind that the United Provinces provided for Willem. Somehow I doubt there will be a direct intervention. But a few ducats?

Pretty ASB. Spain would NEVER forgive such loss, at least not for many generations. And while they would resent but could accept the loss of the Netherlands, they would NEVER EVER renounce to reconquer Milan as that loss would put in danger Naples, giving them more reasons for fight against France

Indeed. In general, I don't think Milan is a major french aspiration. The only design Louis had on Milan was to exchange it with the Duchy of Lorraine. In any case, Lorraine was occupied for a long time. I doubt that Louis would risk alienating a Great Power over providing legality to his conquest. The Spanish Netherlands is an entire different thing though.

 

[Diego]

The problem is that France would hold onto this just long enough for them to defeat everyone else, or at least think they did, then promptly invade Spain.

I doubt that something like that would happen unless they get a claim on the Spanish throne like OTL. First the Spanish Italy would be much stronger than OTL because their territories there are able to support each other, Lombardy with its control over the passes has the function of protecting Milan, Milan protects Naples meanwhile Spain can quickly move troops around in its territories because of the geographical proximity between Italy and Catalonia, not mentioning the islands, also without Savoy controling the passes the French can't bully a smaller state to give them free passage into Italy, the other states in Italy, except for Venice and the Papal States, wouldn't risk going against Spain and would support Spain in the case of war. Second, the natural path of expansion of France is in Germany and the Netherlands, not Italy or Spain.

It is said that countries don't have friends just interests, but today there is at least some reticence and backlash to doing whatever(for most at least), if only out of bureaucracy and inertia. At this point in time there very much isn't. If a country can expand its border by conquering neighbours it will try to expand, that is simply a given. That is, after all, how all significant countries came to be.

See above, Italy and Spain are not the easiest path for expansion, it is Germany.

The only way any sort of France and Spain alliance could meaningfully last is if a single monarch ended up ruling them both and well... Good luck to the one handling all the consequences and difficulties thereof. And even if someone did it is just a matter of time before a heir is simply not up for the task.

I didn't say that they would be allies for long, just for this time, once James II is restored somewhere and Piedmont is fully under control of Milan Spain can pretty much turn against France and join the next coalition against them or keep neutral.

Honestly I think the only way for Spain and France to actually be friends is if France conquers Milan and the Spanish Netherlands from them and the Spanish somehow forgive that because I see those two(Milan less but definitely the Netherlands) as the main thing that prevents any potential friendship as France always had a dream of expanding into the Low Countries region given it's wealth and they will step on anyone's toes to get it.

That would just make France the hegemon in Northern Italy and make them even more ambitious, enough to go against Naples and even the Mediterranean Islands, in fact in this situation Spain could even lose more than OTL by losing the Balearic Islands to France.

Spain is a Great Power, even though it is the weakest of its peers. A Stuart bride with a crownless father is of limited value to Spain. They will either have to cancel the betrothal and suffer a major loss of face, or try to assist James in recovering his realm. I don't see any other paths other than the above two.

I mentioned that because ITTL the Spanish are already set in maintaining their alliance with James for the time being and they seem to be willing to help him retake the throne. To me it is irrelevant if they send money, troops, or outright declare war on William what I meant was that the best outcome for Spain would be for James to retake Ireland from William in this war and relinquish England (Scotland being a grey area) so the next king of Spain could marry the daughter of James II and their son would inherit the kingdom.

Pretty ASB. Spain would NEVER forgive such loss, at least not for many generations. And while they would resent but could accept the loss of the Netherlands, they would NEVER EVER renounce to reconquer Milan as that loss would put in danger Naples, giving them more reasons for fight against France

Pretty much my thoughts too.

 

[ike225]

I don’t see Spain giving up the Netherlands, they were vital to the Spanish defense for France have to divide it forces in 3 or 4 (Iberian front, Netherlands, Italy, HRE border). Thus France needs to keep it forces divided and the Spanish putting more pressure on one front makes France shift forces.
A Spain that reforms its army, quite needed at this time, and its finances would be able to carry its weight and be a proper counter against France.