The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)
- Thread starter Archduke
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‘The 2panish Heir: French Boogaloo’ starring Rob Schneider as Louis XIV of France
The Irish Brigade is going to be the most interesting piece of this puzzle. Because they are still in the Spanish Netherlands and under nominal Spanish command, but also happen to be a trained and equipped army of professional Irish Catholics.
2.1: Louis's War
I: Louis's War
The Siege of Philippsburg (1688)
The Siege of Philippsburg (1688)
Ever since the birth of the Spanish heir, Luis Carlos, and the triumph of Christendom over the Ottoman Turks at Vienna, France had felt endangered. For close to two decades, the French had been allowed to think that after two centuries, the painful Habsburg encirclement of France would find its end. Starting with the accession of Charles V to the thrones of both Spain and the Holy Roman Empire, France had been under siege. France was punished with repeated invasions, countless wars, and innumerable deaths for its unfortunate geography between a Habsburg Spain, a Habsburg Italy, a Habsburg Netherlands, and a Habsburg Germany. After a century of barely clinging on, France began to claw back relevancy and stability with the advent of the 17th century. Then through the Thirty Years’ War and Louis XIV’s reign, France went beyond just surviving and even surpassed the glorious empire of Spain. In fact, France was making strides toward its own hegemony over Europe. But decades upon decades of struggle were not easily forgotten. France never let go of its survival mindset and of its fear of the Habsburgs knocking on every door of France. Only through the impending extinction of the Spanish Habsburgs did the French begin to relax. With the demise of the Spanish Habsburgs, the French could foresee themselves stealing key pieces of the Spanish dominion and with that stealing a future as the next leaders of Europe. The excruciatingly Habsburg century was over and the French century had arrived. The French confidence in this possibility became so extreme that they considered it a destiny. Spain would fall, the Habsburg stranglehold would be permanently broken, and France would be crowned the kings of Europe. In 1683, that destiny came under attack. To the south, a princess of France betrayed her home country and birthed an heir for Spain. In doing so she revitalized a broken and beaten nation and inspired it to resist its decline. To the east, former agents of France, Jan Sobieski, Saxony, and Bavaria, saved Vienna from Ottoman conquest at the eleventh hour. Their efforts shattered the Ottomans so thoroughly that not only were the Turks stopped from entering Vienna, but the whole of Turkish Hungary was opened up to an Austrian counterattack. Just as France was inching toward breaking free from the shackles of Habsburg encirclement, twin miracles saved the two Habsburg realms from certain destruction and re-energized them toward great feats and conquests.
Louis XIV and his Kingdom of France understood the danger posed by the Habsburg resurgence and almost immediately brought war upon the Spanish branch. In a quick but bloody war, the French overpowered the Spanish and wrestled the critical Fortress of Luxembourg from their hands. But the war was hard-fought with nearly 10,000 Frenchmen dying just for the prize of Luxembourg, which proved the resiliency of a reinvigorated Spain. In the end, Spain barely agreed to surrender and the Habsburg Holy Roman Empire only accepted the French revisions to the border temporarily. In twenty years' time, the Truce of Regensburg would expire and the Spanish and Germans both made it clear that they did not accept the losses that they had endured. Enemies of France would return. When the enemies did return they would be stronger and better prepared. With each year, the Austrians advanced their boundaries further east, which provided their heartland with security and earned them new sources of revenue and manpower. Meanwhile, the Spanish were carefully guarding Prince Luis Carlos and watching him grow up healthy and strong. The hope for Spain and Austria and the fear for France was that when the truce ended, Austria would have a great eastern kingdom under its control that provided tens of thousands of soldiers while Spain would have a capable monarch determined to win back all that his forefathers had lost. This unenviable future had to be stopped in the only way that Louis XIV understood, war. So from 1684 onward, Louis XIV and his advisers, Louvois, Croissy, Seignelay, and all the rest began to plot their next war. In 1685, they were provided with their first excuse for fighting with the succession of Electoral Palatinate. With the death of Karl II Philipp the male line of the House of Palatinate-Simmern died out and the Palatinate-Neuburgs inherited their holdings, but Louis XIV contended that the last survivor of the Simmerns, his sister-in-law, the Duchess of Orleans, Elizabeth Charlotte, should have inherited instead. Even with this dispute, Louis XIV did not rush to war as the timing for war was not right. Louis XIV prioritized implementing his Edict of Fontainebleau instead.
Just a year later, the Austrians knocked down the gates of Buda and Louis XIV second thought his patience. The Austrians were rolling back the Ottomans far faster than the French had expected. The French had to convince themselves that the Austrians were winning despite themselves, but the truth was that the French were uneasy and perhaps even scared. Louis XIV hoped to frighten the Austrians by making an ultimatum that implied war unless the settlement of Regensburg was made permanent. Yet high their incredible victory at Buda, the Austrians could scarcely be expected to cower before the French. In fact, Emperor Leopold refused to even negotiate on the subject. The French thought he would come and he had every intention of coming once the Ottoman threat was vanquished. But less than two years later, another crisis arose in Europe when Maximilian Heinrich, Archbishop of Cologne, arranged for an agent of France, Wilhelm Egon von Furstenberg, to be elected as his successor. To many the election of Furstenberg to Cologne was considered the first step toward the French annexation of Cologne in the tradition of Verdun and Strasbourg. Stopping Furstenberg’s election and thus the loss of Cologne became a priority for Emperor Leopold. But the issue of Cologne took a backseat to Emperor Leopold’s ongoing dispute with the young and proud hero of the east, Maximilian II Emanuel of Bavaria. Due to the conflict between the two men, Emperor Leopold refused to openly and unwaveringly support Max Emanuel’s younger brother as the Imperial candidate. Without the Empire rallying behind a single figure, the weight of France carried Furstenberg to an election victory. Even though Pope Innocent XI vetoed this result and asked the canons of Cologne to vote again, this proved to be nothing more than a postponement. Leopold and Max Emanuel took too long to resolve their problems and in the end, the canons elected Furstenberg a second time. With the final election of Furstenberg war became an imminent inevitability. Furstenberg’s election was practically an invitation for the French army into the Electorate of Cologne and this was an invitation that Louis XIV intended to accept. But it was not an invitation that Emperor Leopold could allow. If the French occupied the vital Rhenish fortresses of Cologne then Leopold might as well hand them the Rhineland. By any and all means, Emperor Leopold meant to stop the French occupation of Cologne.
Despite being elected by the canons of Cologne twice, Furstenberg would not officially become Prince-Archbishop of Cologne without the approval of both Pope Innocent XI and Emperor Leopold. Louis XIV wanted to think that with two decisive votes in Furstenberg’s favor, the officializing of the election would have been a pure formality as it always was. But in truth, Louis XIV knew that this outcome was unlikely. Neither Pope Innocent XI nor Emperor Leopold had any modicum of amenability toward Louis XIV in recent years despite Louis XIV’s generous attempts at negotiation. Louis XIV could hardly expect at this critical juncture that either Pope Innocent XI or Emperor Leopold would take their defeats in good grace. At the very least, Louis XIV expected the two men to throw up every roadblock and raise every technicality possible to delay Furstenberg’s enthronement as Archbishop and Prince Elector. At worst, Louis XIV expected them to illegally and inappropriately deny the legitimate election of Furstenberg and create a fraudulent anti-bishop out of Joseph Clemens of Bavaria, the boy who had handily lost both votes to Furstenberg. Louis XIV considered the latter outcome to be more likely. Already, Louis XIV knew that Leopold's favored general Charles of Lorraine had been recalled to Vienna, away from the eastern front. Friedrich Wilhelm of Brandenburg, at the same time, had mustered an army on Cologne’s border in Kleve and Mark. To the French, it was clear that the Germans were intent on using force to make up for their failure of electioneering and diplomacy. Louis XIV chose not to wait for the Germans to act on their base urges and allow his ally, Furstenberg, to become the victim of an unwarranted and unprovoked Imperial attack. Instead, with Furstenberg and a French colonel, Charles de Caradas, Marquis du Heron, already in Cologne, Louis XIV chose to act first. With the support of the canons, Furstenberg was installed with control of the government of Cologne. Once in control, Furstenberg and Du Heron began to organize Cologne’s sizable army of 5,000 veterans of the eastern war to defend the electorate against “any threat” [1]. Palisades were thrown up, ammunition was stocked, and sentry scouts were posted. Meanwhile, an army in France assembled under Jacques Henri de Durfort, Duc de Duras, with instructions to protect the Electorate of Cologne “as seen fit”.
On September 14, 1688, Pope Innocent XI made his official response to Furstenburg’s election. He declared Furstenburg’s election to be invalid as a consequence of rampant simony and instructed the canons to meet for another (third) election without the influence of any foreign powers. These grounds for invalidation were weak and Innocent XI’s call for a third election was unprecedented [2]. But even as poorly excused as Innocent XI’s action was it still amounted to the leader of the Catholic Church refusing to grant the Archbishopric of Cologne to Furstenberg. Emperor Leopold abstained from issuing his own rejection of Furstenberg. In a display of his typical patient wariness, Leopold avoided saying anything that might bind him to action. Instead, Leopold contented himself with the Pope’s denial acting for both of them. In taking these steps, Pope Innocent XI and Emperor Leopold made it abundantly clear that they would by no means tolerate Furstenberg in Cologne. No matter how lackluster the legal argument, they would resist and deny Furstenberg every step of the way. Thus, the only recourse left to Louis XIV was a martial one. Louis XIV had always known it would come to this but having to write orders for Duras to prepare to invade Germany still frustrated Louis. If the Holy Roman Empire and the Pope wished to defy him then Louis XIV was more than willing to bring his wrath down unto them as he forced the acceptance of Furstenberg upon Europe. At the same time, Louis XIV remembered the Dutch menace and issued two stern warnings to the republic. The first warning informed the Dutch that the French would support the legitimate Archbishop of Cologne, Furstenberg, against “any enemies”, whomever they might be. The implicit threat was that if the Dutch moved against Furstenberg then they would suffer French retaliation. The second warning regarded England. Despite James II refusing French military support previously, the French ambassador, Jean-Antoine de Mesmes, known as D’Avaux, stated that just as France would defend the legitimate ruler of Cologne so to it would defend the legitimate ruler of England. Rather explicitly D’Avaux confirmed that any attack on James II of England by the Dutch Republic or Willem van Oranje would be viewed as an act of war against France. With the twin threats, Louis XIV hoped to invoke memories of the destruction that the French army had previously wrought on the Dutch in the Rampjaar. Louis XIV seemed to suggest that if the Dutch acted in either Germany or England then the army of Marechal Louis de Crevant, duc d'Humieres, in northern France or the army of Marechal Duras in eastern France, would invade the Dutch Republic and bring destruction anew to the republic.
When the Dutch heard these threats they were not cowed as Louis XIV hoped. Instead, they were excited into a bellicose frenzy. For years the Dutch had done their best to avoid another war with the grand army of Louis XIV. Even a decade after the end of the last war, the Dutch Republic had still not fully healed from the conflict. Each year, the Dutch convinced themselves that living in fear of France was acceptable so long as the peace could be preserved and a new invasion could be avoided. But lately, Louis XIV’s actions seemed to make war seem impossible to sidestep. Louis XIV had issued threat after threat to the Dutch and the rest of Europe and now he had two armies primed to wreak havoc on the Low Countries and Germany. How could the Dutch trust him to let them live their lives in peace? The man did not even let his own subjects live in peace if they refused to follow his religion. For many in the Dutch Republic, war became an inescapable future and it became clear that the republic needed to ready the defenses against an impending invasion. Even if the Dutch could hold on to peace, the question emerged of if peace was even worth it. Before, peace had always meant the preservation of trade and the continuation of those revenues. But recently, Louis XIV brought back French tariffs on Dutch goods and left many Dutch traders struggling to make their living. Peace was no longer profitable. Maybe war became the necessary answer to both curb the French threat and force a restoration of honest trade regulations. In vain, some members of the Staten-Generaal reached out to D’Avaux to try to keep the peace. However, they could not and did not provide any guarantees of the republic staying out of either the English or the German crisis. They insisted that the Dutch Republic would act as it needed to.
After their fruitless exchange with D’Avaux, the Staten-Generaal held a secret session in which Prince Willem revealed that he had organized the protection of the Dutch Republic’s eastern periphery through arrangements with the Brandenburgers. The Staten-Generaal also approved the raising of additional soldiers. When the question emerged about what Prince Willem himself was up to and why a fleet and soldiers were being prepared at Holland, Willem avoided the subject. Days later, Prince Willem scurried away to the army he had been assembling along the coast and began to prepare them for an invasion of England. With the embarkation of the army already underway, Willem’s chief advocate, Grand Pensionary Gaspar Fagel, revealed Willem’s plan to invade England. The Staten-Generaal were shocked to discover this as Willem had only informed three Burgomasters of Amsterdam and a handful of other statesmen so far. Fagel argued that this invasion was necessitated by the clear and obvious connection between James II and France. If the Dutch did not handle James II then he would come after them and the Dutch really would be subjected to a second Rampjaar, just as Emperor Leopold claimed. Either the Dutch dealt with James II or he dealt with them. Although this invasion would doubtless take soldiers away from the defense of the Republic it would also keep the English army across the Channel and distract the army of Louis XIV. Still, the Staten-Generaal were unsure. They hesitated to attack England and invite a war that they were not so sure needed to be fought. The chief concern for many was the Anglo-Spanish alliance. What if attacking England turned Spain against the Dutch Republic and they in turn opened the southern roads for a Franco-Spanish invasion of the Republic? Spain had openly stood by their English allies and even played host to a brigade of Catholic Irishmen. Spain would not easily abandon James II, especially when James II's Catholic daughter, Mary Louisa, was betrothed to the Prince of Asturias, Luis Carlos. As valid as these concerns were, Fagel cared not, and neither did Willem. With or without the Staten-Generaal’s support, Willem was invading England. Even though Willem intended to do so as a private citizen, it would still incur the ire of Louis XIV. The French would likely still blame the Dutch and still punish them. At the same time, if the Dutch failed to support their Prince in his invasion then he would show them little love once he was the master of England. Willem and Fagel left the Staten-Generaal with no other option. No matter what they would be tied to the fate of Willem’s mission. On September 28, 1688, meekly they consented to Willem’s plan on the principle that he was his own man and any Dutch resources were provided as auxiliaries rather than in the name of the Republic [3]. The Staten-Generaal hoped that the weak excuse of them just acting as auxiliaries might preserve the Dutch-Spanish alliance. Otherwise, the Republic was certainly doomed.
With no one trembling in fear from any of his multiple threats, Louis XIV had little choice but to follow through on them. To punish the Dutch for their refusal to provide a declaration of peaceful intent, Louis XIV ordered the seizure of all Dutch ships in French ports. In a single day, more than a hundred Dutch ships were captured by the French. By arresting these ships Louis XIV directly attacked the mercantile lifeblood of the Dutch Republic. Through this act, Louis XIV wanted to demonstrate the prohibitive cost of war with France. Either the Dutch would come to heel or he would break them and their economy. This was the final warning Louis XIV would give the Dutch. As damaging as these seizures were, the Dutch were not the true focus of Louis XIV’s hostility in 1688. Instead, Louis XIV made Emperor Leopold and his Holy Roman Empire the primary victims of his retaliation. On October 1, 1688, Louis XIV published a memorial to Emperor Leopold titled “the reasons by which the King is obliged to resume his Arms”. In other words, the memorial announced France’s intent to break the Truce of Regensburg and restart the war in the Low Countries and Germany. The memorial even outlined how the war would resume by informing the Emperor that a French army was on its way to attack Philippsburg and occupy the Electoral Palatinate. The reasons given for this attack were that not only was the Emperor obstructing Furstenburg’s accession in Cologne but that he had denied Elisabeth Charlotte of Palatinate her rights in Electoral Palatinate. In both of these malicious acts the Emperor had conspired with the Pope and Augsburg League to do harm to France. Louis XIV did leave open the possibility of a quick return to peace. The terms for peace were simple, the Truce of Regensburg was turned into a permanent settlement, Furstenburg was allowed to come into power in Cologne, and negotiations over Elisabeth Charlotte’s rights to Electoral Palatinate would begin. In exchange, Louis XIV was willing to dismantle his fortress at Fribourg and turn the site over to the Empire before withdrawing the French army from Germany. The Empire had just three months to realize the generosity of this offer. Otherwise, Louis XIV would carry the war to wherever it took him.
A day later, well before the Germans even had a chance to react to the memorial, Marechal Duras, General Sebastien Le Prestre de Vauban, and Louis, the Grand Dauphin, led a French army of 40,000 men across the Franco-German border. As stated, this army marched on the fortress of Philippsburg. Despite being one of three major bridgeheads along the Upper Rhine and the only one in Imperial hands, Philippsburg was poorly defended. While Willem of Oranje had been energetic in preparing his invasion of England and Brandenburg had been steadily assembling an army to intervene in Cologne, Emperor Leopold had been casually lethargic in his own preparations for war. Less than 3,000 men had been gathered for the defense of Philippsburg. The rest of the Austrian army was either still mustering in Vienna or fighting the eastern war under Max Emanuel of Bavaria. Even though the princes of Germany were not as slow in readying their armies for a war, their main concern remained their own safety rather than the safety of Philippsburg. So the princely armies of Germany remained spread out across their own homes and were so individually weak that only a select few of them had any possibility at all of resisting a French army. In other words, Maximilian von Starhemberg and the garrison of Philippsburg were left to fend for themselves.
The only army that might have helped Philippsburg was that of Brandenburg, but Friedrich Wilhelm chose against doing so. This choice was not one of cowardice but rather of intelligence and compromise. Even though Friedrich Wilhelm did nothing to halt the French attack against Philippsburg, his army was not idle. Just as the war began, half of the Brandenburger army crossed the Dutch border and took up defensive positions around Njimegen. In this manner, the Brandenburgers replaced the absent army of Willem van Oranje. With the Brandenburgers at Njimegen, the French could not easily access the vulnerable southeast corner of the Dutch Republic. Through this exact deployment, the Staten-Generaal was given the confidence to rubberstamp Willem’s invasion of England. Even if Willem was going to push on ahead anyway, the Staten-Generaal could have denied him any sense of legitimacy by condemning his invasion as an illegal use of Dutch resources. This condemnation in itself would not have blocked Willem, but the lack of approval might have denied him just enough supplies or shook his confidence just enough for him to rethink his decision to invade England. Instead, because the Brandenburgers were entrenched at Njimegen, the thought never had to enter Willem’s mind. Unfortunately for Germany, putting one-half of the Brandenburger army in Nijmegen left only the other half of the Brandenburger army in the Rhineland. This remaining force was far too insufficient to match the 40,000 soldiers of the Grand Dauphin who besieged Philippsburg. The disparity was so large that Friedrich Wilhelm never even considered assisting Philippsburg. In fact, Friedrich Wilhelm felt his numbers were so deficient that he would not even test the 5,000 soldiers of Cologne by authorizing an attack on Cologne or Bonn. In the end, the Brandenburgers primarily remained in Kleve and Mark where they could safeguard the Great Elector’s western holdings. So at the price of Philippsburg, the Brandenburgers purchased the security of the Dutch Republic.
The French siege of Philippsburg was an unexciting affair. Commanded by Marechal Duras and the Grand Dauphin and meticulously overseen by Vauban, the siege was mechanical in nature. Systematically, Philippsburg was surrounded, then French trenches crept up on the fortress while French cannons bombarded it, finally, a series of assaults conquered principal pieces of Philippsburg fortification. The remaining parts of the fortification were rendered indefensible and Philippsburg’s garrison was compelled to surrender by the beginning of November 1688. Having survived a month of Vauban’s siege and capitulated in good time, Maximilian von Starhemberg and the Austrian garrison were permitted to withdraw without further harassment. Even if this small army was not destroyed, the capture of Philippsburg was significant in its own right. Philippsburg was one of three major upper Rhine bridgeheads, the others being Fribourg and Breisach. Both Fribourg and Breisach were already in French possession and with Philippsburg taken, the Imperials lacked any avenue to attack Alsace. Additionally, the French could now use all three of those brigdeheads in conjunction with others to continue their offensive. Over the course of the next month, the French captured Mannheim, Neustadt, Oppenheim, Worms, Bingen, Alzey, Kreuznach, Bacharach, Kaiserslautern, Heidelberg, Pforzheim, Heilbronn, Speyer, and most importantly Mainz. Only Koblenz refused to submit to the French invasion but it was subsequently punished with a bombardment that destroyed many of its buildings. This wave of conquests left the French in control of the Electoral Palatinate, Mainz, and all of their critical Rhenish bridges. Additionally, since Brandenburg had failed to rapidly attack Cologne, that electorate also remained in French hands. Thus, France had taken control of all of its war objectives and secured many key defensive points in less than a season [4]. To France, it seemed as if they had won the war in Germany in the first move. In truth, the dance of kings had barely begun.
[1] The army of Cologne was one of the princely armies to participate in several of the eastern campaigns and it earned a good reputation while fighting in the east. The French specifically called them out as being well-disciplined and well-equipped. Cologne also has a relatively large army for an ecclesiastical Imperial estate.
[2] Typically, if the Pope's veto was overridden then the Pope was expected to accept the canons' choice. Only under extreme and unexpected circumstances would the Pope deny the canons' choice a second time. In this case, no extenuating circumstances exist outside of the political scope of the issue. Thus, in terms of Church law, Pope Innocent XI has no excuse for refusing Furstenberg's election. But due to his alliance with Willem van Oranje and his animosity toward Louis XIV, he is rejecting Furstenberg.
[3] Willem and Fagel have outmaneuvered the Staten-Generaal by getting an army and fleet prepared under the guise of the international crisis. The military is relatively loyal to the Orangist cause, which means that they will likely follow Willem despite the Staten-Generaal's wishes. In other words, no matter what Willem will be leading Dutch armed forces into England and the Staten-Generaal is too late to stop him. The Staten-Generaal might have a slight chance if it acts very decisively and aggressively but they are scared to do so, because what if Willem is right about England. Instead, the Staten-Generaal bow to Willem's wishes and approve his mission to England.
[4] There was a low density of Imperial soldiers in the Rhineland at the onset of the war. The majority of Imperial resources are located either in the east or in the north. This allows for a quick and easy French conquest of the region while the Imperials fall back and regroup.
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Super looking forward to it! Hopefully the French will be able to come out victorious on this one and crush the Dutch and the Imperials.
Willem could fail in his English invasion while France is still beaten on the continent perhaps? If Spain enters the war, Britain won’t be on France’s side
I think that due to the fact William is invading England and is wanting to depose James, Britain is sorta automatically in France's side even if just for circumstances, which complicates stuff for Spain as I'm sure they would love to gang up on France but they don't like the idea of losing a Catholic England to a Protestant Dutch King. Plus technically due to their agreement the Spanish are obligated to declare war against the Dutch for attacking the Brits but since Spain doesn't want to be on the French side, I see them sending troops and ships without automatically declaring war and say they're just supporting an ally during a time of need.
Yes, I think that's what's interesting to me about this scenario. The different camps represent pretty unstable and in some ways unnatural alignments. James may have to align with France just because of the Dutch threat. On the other side Bavaria may have to align with Leopold because of the Cologne issue despite their serious differences. I think it makes things unpredictable as the coalitions that have formed don't seem to be as solid as IOTL.
Indeed, it should be noticed that France still wants Bavaria as a ally so maybe they could work something out? Although given that Max is working as a general for Leopold out in the East it's unlikely.
Oh yeah, the geopolitics and even domestic politics are beyond complicated.
Willem is invading England as a "private citizen" and the Dutch soldiers with him are auxiliaries rather than agents of the Staten-Generaal. This is the same as OTL, but the significance of this arrangement is much more important. In OTL, this arrangement was not worth much. The Dutch were not aware that Willem intended to depose James II, so they thought that Willem would just go there, fight James, force James to accept a new Parliament and maybe a Protestant council, then Willem would get that Parliament to join the war against France, and then Willem would come home. The arrangement wasn't meant to shield the Republic from blowback for overthrowing a legitimate monarch, they didn't know. The arrangement didn't shield the Republic from France, because the Republic expected to fight France over Cologne anyway. The arrangement was mainly designed to shield the Republic if Willem lost. If Willem lost and James won, then the Republic could try to put all the blame on Willem and avoid a continued war with the English. So the arrangement was mainly about mitigating a post-invasion outcome.
In TTL, the Anglo-Spanish alliance means consequences during the invasion period. The Spanish have an alliance that specifically mentions defending James II against attacks on his monarchy, which Willem's invasion constitutes. The Spanish also have 3,000 Irish soldiers who are devoutly loyal to James II in their care. Finally, the Spanish heir is betrothed to James's Catholic daughter. The Anglo-Spanish alliance is very real. Assuming Willem doesn't drown in the Channel, a Dutch army will land in England and be led against James. Doubtless James will call on the Spanish to help him and the Spanish are treaty-bound to do something. With a pro-French Queen and a pro-English court, the Spanish will likely act on their obligations. Now this may not mean much in England. The Spanish do have the more immediate threat of France. Plus the Spanish fleet is focused on the Mediterranean. But there can and likely will be consequences on the Continent, specifically in the Low Countries. Will the Spanish accept the Staten-Generaal's excuse of the Dutch in England being auxiliaries? Likely Gastanaga will accept that excuse in the short-term as he deals with any initial French attack. Gastanga is in no position to reject help from the Dutch. But if he does, he can't expect the Irish Brigade to work alongside the Dutch. But Madrid will make the final decision and the government there can't be expected to receive the Dutch excuses in good grace. The Spanish still hate the French which should help the Republic. Also, the Spanish are still members of the Augsburg League so they are still bound to defending Germany. But even if Madrid accepts that the Republic is not "involved" and that the Spanish treaties with the Republic hold, there will be issues with cooperation and coordination. And Spain can't be expected to accept any of Willem's actions in England.
A lot will depend on James. If James can successfully resist and quickly vanquish Willem then everything is much more likely to become a moot point. If Willem dies or is even just defeated, the Republicans take over the Republic instantly. They make peace with England and avoid war with Spain by explaining how Willem coerced them as a tyrant and they don't condone his actions etc. But if James and Willem get into a heated contest then things become slightly more complicated. If James can make this invasion into a civil war then Louis XIV has no need to involve him in the conflict. The civil war will distract Willem and France will want to focus its resources on Germany. England becomes a sideshow for them. Spain will be obligated to act to defend James. How significant this support is will depend on the balance of the conflict in England. If James is losing then Louis XIV probably permits Spain to send some soldiers to England. If James is winning handily, then Louis may want the Spanish to stay on the Continent. This means more Spanish for him to fight, but it also ensures that James does not return the favor and join the German war on Spain's side. Spain might end up forcing the Republic to cut off its support of Willem as evidence that the Dutch army there is an auxiliary without the sponsorship of the Staten-Generaal. However, if James panics like OTL then we have to see where James goes. Does he run to the Spanish Netherlands to try to convince Spain to use the Amry of Flanders to invade the Dutch Republic? It's possible, but James would also understood that the Army of Flanders is smaller than the Dutch army and that the Dutch are protected by the Germans. The Spanish might also be reluctant to invade the Dutch Republic while fighting the French. So does James go to Madrid and retire? In OTL, he was initially so broken by the invasion that he didn't even want to invade England. Louis XIV had to convince him to invade Ireland. Or does James go to France, which he knows offered him military support specifically against the Dutch and has the largest army and navy in western Europe? James has to know that France is his best chance at regaining England. If James goes to France, he puts the Spanish in an exceedingly awkward position. The Spanish don't want to abandon James as an ally, but how can they maintain that alliance when he is allied to France? Spain would have to get creative. And France will only really want to help James if he gets deposed, because then it puts Spain in that awkward position.
Regarding Bavaria, the way things have played out, the Bavarian army as a whole is going east and so is Max Emanuel. So Bavaria can't really send people to the western front and wouldn't be expected to. This is why Louis XIV left the door open for Bavaria in the future. Louis XIV can't stop Bavaria from fighting in the east, but once matters are finished in the east it is in France's best interests to keep Bavaria out of the western war. Firstly, France will be motivating the Ottomans to keep fighting, which will keep matters in the east unfinished. But if peace emerges in the east and France and Austria are still fighting, France will want to negotiate Bavarian neutrality. This keeps a powerful army out of the western war and probably creates the foundations for a peace faction within the Holy Roman Empire that pushes Leopold toward making peace with France. However, if this ends up happening, Bavaria will have incredible leverage. A war that's still going on in the west means that Bavaria has some serious draw as a potential gamechanger. Both France and Austria would pay dearly to determine Bavaria's involvement. A Bavarian betrayal of Austria might cost France a kingdom. But Austria might have to pay a kingdom just to keep Bavaria from betraying it. Some of this will end up being determined by personal politics. If Max only holds on to Hungary and Leopold doesn't win Transylvania and northern Serbia, he might treat Max poorly and Max might decide to retaliate. On the other hand, if Max wins big in the east, then maybe Leopold is willing to be generous to him and then Max wants to jump into the western war energetically (and then France would need a great bribe to stop him). Or maybe Max wins big in the east and then Leopold still treats him poorly and then Max decides that screw it, he's taking his anger out on Leopold (and then France only needs to give him a slight push).
Good start to Part II.
ME wins big in the East but is snubbed by Leopold yet again. Louis begins supporting ME for Emperor due to having achieved his war aims early and a need for allies. Sick of being snubbed of his deserved glory Max takes Louis up on his offer.
During the war, France and Bavaria take Baden, Cleves, the Dutch Republic, and all of Germany west of the Elbe. Bavaria honors French territorial claims in the Rhein. The Protestant Wittlesbach branch that formerly held the Palatinate is granted Nassau and takes the Stadholder title from Willem after his disastrous invasion of England led to a joint Franco-Spanish attack against the DR and his death tho he dies in England.
The uneasy Anglo-Bavarian-Franco-Spanish alliance is able to hold off Brandenburg and Saxony before marching on Vienna and capturing Leopold, deposing him and proclaims Max the new Emperor. Treaty bound to the Empire, Spain would limit its initial involvement to assisting James and ousting Willem. Spain would be instrumental in this theater of the war but internally the Spanish Cortes would see the war as an opportunity to rid themselves of the Austrian yoke. With Franco-Spanish assistance James retains his crown and focuses the duration of the war on stomping all traces of the Orangist cause. The alliance also sees Louis halting all support of the Ottomans opening the door for a Spanish invasion of Ottoman Albania giving us the new territory, the Spanish Balkans.
After the war, Max is declared the new Emperor and Leopold sees his branch reduced to mere dukes. Austrian Habsburgs would lose Bohemia but retain its electorship. Louis pulls some French diplomatic shenanigans and gets the Hungarian crown for Phillip of Anjou who is to be married to a daughter of the now EME, another to the Petit Dauphin. James would have an heir of his own in 1688, James Francis Eduard Stewart. Luis Carlos gets older.
ME wins big in the East but is snubbed by Leopold yet again. Louis begins supporting ME for Emperor due to having achieved his war aims early and a need for allies. Sick of being snubbed of his deserved glory Max takes Louis up on his offer.
During the war, France and Bavaria take Baden, Cleves, the Dutch Republic, and all of Germany west of the Elbe. Bavaria honors French territorial claims in the Rhein. The Protestant Wittlesbach branch that formerly held the Palatinate is granted Nassau and takes the Stadholder title from Willem after his disastrous invasion of England led to a joint Franco-Spanish attack against the DR and his death tho he dies in England.
The uneasy Anglo-Bavarian-Franco-Spanish alliance is able to hold off Brandenburg and Saxony before marching on Vienna and capturing Leopold, deposing him and proclaims Max the new Emperor. Treaty bound to the Empire, Spain would limit its initial involvement to assisting James and ousting Willem. Spain would be instrumental in this theater of the war but internally the Spanish Cortes would see the war as an opportunity to rid themselves of the Austrian yoke. With Franco-Spanish assistance James retains his crown and focuses the duration of the war on stomping all traces of the Orangist cause. The alliance also sees Louis halting all support of the Ottomans opening the door for a Spanish invasion of Ottoman Albania giving us the new territory, the Spanish Balkans.
After the war, Max is declared the new Emperor and Leopold sees his branch reduced to mere dukes. Austrian Habsburgs would lose Bohemia but retain its electorship. Louis pulls some French diplomatic shenanigans and gets the Hungarian crown for Phillip of Anjou who is to be married to a daughter of the now EME, another to the Petit Dauphin. James would have an heir of his own in 1688, James Francis Eduard Stewart. Luis Carlos gets older.
That's some excellent analysis of the situation!
I always thought that the OTL figleaf of Willem being a private citizen, was copium on the part of the Estates General. It can only work with Willem dying in the process, so if a power has vested interests in avoiding conflict with the Dutch might pretend they believe it.
Moreover, would Louis attack the Spanish Netherlands when he can also make the same calculations of the Dutch hurting spanish security? After all, one of the OTL reasons to devastate the Palatinate was the lack of manpower. Narrowing the front made sense under these assumptions. However, now there is a chance for spanish neutrality that would be extremely valuable considering the Brandenburgers and the Dutch are about to attack Cologne.
That is indeed in line with his OTL policy. He was trying to promote a peace faction in 1693 and spent huge amounts of coin in vain during that attempt.
