So some speculations about the Arab Nationalists and the Oil Crisis:
I can see TNO2 content if Scorza dosen't kick their ass be based on their relation to Germany and their relation with pan-Arabism. My idea is that after they drive the Italians out, their movement splinters into various factions. You have a left wing(authsoc,
maybe some libsoc), that wants independence from Germany, a more decolonization-emphasized foreign policy, and even align with Russia if one of the USSRs from. And on the right wing end of the spectrum, you have fascist(could be like Shaf or Oktan) and natsoc wings that are essentially anti-semites and Germanphilies, through Serov
might be able to Sway them(side note: Would be a nice shoutout to Footprint of Mussolini if they were led by Michel Aflaq). Lastly you have despotist wings that are opportunists that have no concrete ideology except pan arab nationalism, and would play all sides in the Cold War to benefit the United Middle East.
This could potentially, if one side does not sweep to an overwhelming majority, lead to one final war for the Arabian Pennisula between the various Baathist wings depending on who comes out of the power struggle, or, in the most chaotic outcome, a Middle Eastern collapse that could see the rise of some lower tier players to the stage such as various secular or other Islamist movements, as well as a Natsoc SSNP led by a still living Antun Saddeh in Syria, or some cursed ultranat ISIS shit(role fit well by
this guy).
This will affect the progression of the oil crisis. The OFN would want to see the opportunists and maybe some of the authsocs come out on top, and the former are at least more willing to secure diplomatic recognition and some resource deals with the OFN in exchange for support(the latter is very iffy). If Aflaq or whoever they have as the pro-Nazi comes out on top, Germany gets a boost, and the Gang of Four in the Speer puppet route will once again have to compromise with their values as the pro-Nazi candiate provides them a way out of the crisis.
If the final Middle Eastern war and the potential Middle Eastern collapse happens expect a global economic crash potentially spiraling into a massive depression.