(Big Ben Chimes)
MILIBAND HOLDS PRESIDENCY.
FORECAST MILIBAND WINNING FIRST ROUND WITH 28% OF THE VOTE.
(Big Ben Chimes)
LABOUR WINS SENATE
FORECAST LABOUR LARGEST PARTY IN SENATE WITH 89 SEATS
Emily Maitlis - Our exit poll is suggesting that Ed Miliband will win the first round when all the votes are counted. According to our exit poll, President Miliband is on 28% of the vote, Senator May on 26%, Nigel Farage MP on 14%, Defence Secretary Vince Cable on 10%, Senator Gerard Batten on 9%, Businesswoman Heidi Allen on 7% and Environment Secretary Jonathan Bartley on 6%.
Laura Kuenssberg - That's Miliband with a two-point lead, but of course our exit poll has a margin of error of 3-4 points, and it will be the transfers that decide who enters Buckingham
EM - Meanwhile in the Senate, our exit poll has Labour on 89 seats in the Senate, down 6. The Conservatives on 81, down 28. The Brexit Alliance on 38, up 38. The Liberal Democrats on 35, up 2. UKIP on 25, down 30. United for Change on 21, up 21. The Greens on 18, down 5 and all other parties on 53, up 8. So that's both parties seeing losses at the expense of the new kids on the block, namely the Brexit Alliance and UFC.
LK - Again very close, just eight seats between Labour and the Tories
EM - Finally we have the Premiers: Labour on 6, up 1. The Conservatives on 4, down 1, the SNP on one, holding Scotland and our exit poll has called the Northern Irish Premiership for Naomi Long of the Alliance Party, a historic result if true. Again this is just an exit poll, we all remember the last exit poll calling Buckingham for Michael Howard and Ed Miliband going on to win. This is a dramatic poll, but it seems to suggest that Ed Miliband is on course to hold the Presidency. Your reaction Laura?
LK - Well this has been a very turbulent few years for the Commonwealth, we saw two brand new parties form, we've seen violence at home and abroad, and our Parliament has spent the last few years in total gridlock, so I would expect an equally turbulent election. Our exit poll has just two points in it! That's definitely within the margin or error and only eight seats separate Labour and the Tories in the Senate, this will all come down to those transfers as the smaller candidates are eliminated one by one.
EM - Yes it appears the outcome will be decided by the second preference of Farage, Cable and Batten voters above all, that's bad news for Theresa May, her natural allies - Farage and Batten - have both told their supporters not to give May their second preference. Farage said he would only give a final round endorsement if May agreed to campaign for leave in a referendum, which she refused, and Batten has said the whole systems corrupt and that May is part of the same liberal elite as Miliband is. Cable, on the other hand, has clearly given his second place endorsement to Miliband, saying an EU referendum and the possibility of Nigel Farage in the cabinet is too great a risk. Of course, it's not the nominees and party leaders that decide where the preferences go but the voters, they could very well ignore the advice of their favoured candidates.
LK - Yes, if Miliband wins another term that'll be another five years for Labour in Buckingham, alongside the last eight years in Downing Street. In the last four Presidental races only one man, Michael Howard, was able to win a second term. Unfortunately for both Miliband and May the Senate is still in a straight heat, with both parties on around 80-90 seats and neither traditional bloc holding a clear majority. Viewers will know Miliband has no majority in the Senate, even with seven different parties supporting him, and if our exit poll is right, Labour has lost seats, meaning the chance of a clear Senate majority is even more unlikely.
EM - A mixed night for the Brexit Alliance as well, at the start of this campaign Nigel Farage was polling around the same level as Miliband and May, some polls even had him taking second or even first place, from that he has fallen to a respectable, but distant third. However, 38 Senate seats for a party only founded a few weeks ago is nothing to sniff at, and with the Senate and Buckingham on a knife's edge, Mr Farage might find himself as the kingmaker.
LK - His old party UKIP has also had a mixed night, they have lost more than half their Senators, but they have managed to hold on and not be wiped out, there was talk that with Gerard Batten embracing Tommy Robinson and Farage eating into their vote they might fall below the 4% threshold, but Mr Batten has outpolled Heidi Allen, and he's outpolled Mr Bartley who is a sitting Cabinet Minister so it looks like we'll be seeing at least some UKIP lanyards around the Senate in the years and months to come.
EM - Divisive seems to be the keyword of this exit poll, in the Senate and in Buckingham Britain seems to be split roughly 50/50. Let's wait for the first results to come in so we can measure the exit poll against some actual data, we'll get John Curtis on in just a minute but in the meantime, Jeremy Vine is using the BBC's famously massive CGI budget to show how the various transfers could play out and what Miliband and May need to get themselves over that 50% line...