"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL

[powerab]

turnout: 68.4% (30,582,823)
President
Round 1
Blair/Prescott (Lab) - 14,893,835 (48.7%)
Hague/Lilley (Con) - 8,563,190 (28%)
Ashdown/Beith (Lib) - 5,688,405 (18.6%)
Mackinlay/Holmes (UKIP) - 1,437,393 (4.7%)

Round 2
Blair/Prescott (Lab) - 15,169,080 (49.6%)
Hague/Lilley (Con) - 9,297,178 (30.4%)
Ashdown/Beith (Lib) - 6,116,565 (20%)

Round 3
Blair/Prescott (Lab) - 19,053,099 (62.3%)
Hague/Lilley (Con) - 11,529,724 (37.7%)

Parliament
Labour - 300
Conservative - 171
Liberal Democrat - 114
UK Independence Party - 26
Scottish National Party - 12
Plaid Cymru - 5
Sinn Fein - 5
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 4
Ulster Unionist Party - 4
Democratic Unionist Party - 4
Scottish Socialist - 3
Alliance Party - 1
UK Unionist Party - 1

Senate
Labour - 164
Conservative - 86
Liberal Democrat - 56
UK Independence Party - 12
Sinn Fein - 7
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 7
Ulster Unionist Party - 7
Scottish National Party - 6
Democratic Unionist Party - 6
Plaid Cymru - 4
Scottish Socialist - 2
Alliance Party - 2
UK Unionist Party - 1

National and Regional Premieres
Labour - 10
Independent (Ken Livingstone) - 1
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 1

Metropolitan Area Mayors
Labour - 74
Liberal Democrat - 2
Conservative - 1
Sinn Fein - 1

 

[powerab]

President Blair at New Years Celebrations

2000
"And I say to the Foreign Secretary to be increasingly careful in the use of force, especially at the order of a Labour Prime Minister, need I remind him that we are both Liberals, and Liberals don't feel the need to intervene in other countries to impress Bill Clinton" - Liberal Democrat MP David Ward, during a Foreign Relations committee meeting with Secretary Ashdown (2000).

President Blair opened the Millennium Dome whilst Vice-President Prescott oversaw fireworks celebration on the Thames river. A small group of grumbling royalists sang “God save the Queen" into their drinks as the millennium of the Commonwealth began. Blair had his eyes on the future. He was not content with the new political system he had created; he looked forward to a new order. A more interventionist UK, both economically and in foreign policy, and a more internationalist UK at peace with its European neighbours.

“I believe it was Harold Wilson who said “This party is a bit like an old stagecoach. If you drive along at a rapid rate everyone aboard is either so exhilarated or so seasick that you don't have a lot of difficulty.” We’ve got to keep the coach moving David, the show must go on” - An alleged exchange that formed the epigraph of David Miliband’s biography “Hanging onto the Stagecoach” (2017), Blair denies the quote.

The year 2000 in the Commonwealth was marked by two things. Firstly the Blairshdown doctrine of humanitarian interventionism, and Brown and Jay’s policies of economic investment.

With more freedom over domestic policy, and with a first woman chancellor eager to prove herself, Brown gave the go ahead for a major expansion of government spending especially in Health and Education, with a raise on National Insurance to pay for it. The Education Secretary, Stephen Byers pushed ahead with increasing spending on early years by over £1.5 billion, a large part of the budget going to several hundred “sure start” centres. Mo Mowlam saw a renaissance in her popularity by opening up several thousand miles of land as public footpaths. Leading to speculation in the media she could be Britain’s first female president.

“From a standing ovation at the 1998 conference to a snub from Tony to countryside hero. Mowlam has risen, fallen and risen again.” Steve Richards, “No Mo Mowlam Probably won’t be President", New Statesman (2000)

Meanwhile Blair and Ashdown continued to increase British intervention around the world, especially in the Balkans and West Africa.The intervention in Sierra Leone was the fourth deployment of British forces abroad during the premiership of Tony Blair, and the largest operation undertaken by the United Kingdom alone since the Falklands War. Blair would often give speeches on the doctrine of humanitarian intervention around the globe and became increasingly intoxicated by the respect it earned him.However the two men clashed on how to intervene, whilst Ashdown preferred less direct methods such as air support and aid, Blair preferred to take a direct boots on the ground approach, furthermore whilst Ashdown was intent on getting the approval of the international community, Blair was much more flippant about international permission. Ashdown also became resentful feeling that Blair used his military service as a political prop. Disputes like these would continue to grow the rift between Blair and Ashdown.

Foreign Secretary Ashdown welcoming Former President Mandela to Buckingham Palace.

In European Policy the Lib Dems were very keen for a referendum on the Euro and the relaxing of Brown’s “five tests.” Bitter rows between Prime Minister Brown and Paddy Ashdown often took place in the cabinet. With President Blair being uncharacteristically indecisive. Finally after a particularly long cabinet meeting both the Liberal Democrats and Labour announced they would be going in the 2002 midterm Parliamentary election on platform offering a referendum on joining the euro zone, if the coalition was returned the referendum would happen. The decision was in the hands of the voters.

“Blair is playing a high-stakes game. If he pulls it off, it will be his third major transformation of this country in just five years. If he fails his new order could come tumbling down.” - Guardian Journalist Julian Glover speaking on BBC news

A visibly older looking Brown announcing Labour's election Euro pledge

To what extent did Tony Blair "Keep the coach moving" through rapid policy and identity changes (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam Question 2019

 

[powerab]

2001 was marked by disputes about the Euro, former presidential candidate William Hague, alongside former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had founded a campaign group called "NoEuro" to fight against the common currency, whilst it was supposed to be a cross party group it was generally seen as a campaign arm for the right of the Conservative Party, however it was well funded and had a committed activist base. Many of the right’s future politicians would cut their teeth in the NoEuro group.

Several Labour figures, especially Prime Minister Brown became increasingly concerned with the popularity of the pound with polls showing support around 60% for keeping the old currency. Anti-euro voters were increasingly rallying around the Conservatives whilst pro-euro voters were being attracted to the Lib Dems. Leaving Labour caught in the middle. Brown was not the only one concerned. Alastair Campbell, Blair's Director of Communications feared a pro-euro Labour offensive might produce "Vote Conservative” editorials in the Euro-sceptic Sun.

Former Presidential Candidate William Hague speaking at NoEuro Rally

"Whilst never as influential as groups like the NRA in the states, NoEuro was significant in the context of British politics, and was the first of many influential pressure groups in the Commonwealth" - W.N. Coxall - Pressure Groups in British Politics.

Another key event in 2001 was Oldham riots, whilst the BNP had failed to get national representation, it had made breakthrough in local parliaments, including 6 seats in the North West Parliament, and Nick Griffin being elected as the parties sole representative in the North West Senate, as well as absorbing the majority of the National Front. After the attack on veteran Walter Chamberlain by three Asian youths, senator Griffin appealed for the right to a march in Oldham.

Griffins march, accompanied by Neo Nazi skinhead and thugs, was met with resistance from anti-fascist groups such as the Anti-Nazi League and local Asian groups, the march quickly escalated and a egg was thrown at Griffins face from the crowd, which caused the march to descend into violence, whilst quick intervention from the over 600 police officers in the area prevented mass violence and led to the dispersion of the crowd.

A photographer captures the moment the egg impacts on Griffin

The "Battle of Oldham" led to much condemnation from the national press, Griffins egging garnered him little sympathy and there were calls for the BNP to be banned, most notably from North West Premier Jack Straw, the Battle of Oldham would see the BNP's standing in the opinion polls decrease dramatically, some linking the BNPs support to just 1%, and it would take several years for the BNP, and Griffins reputation to recover.

In Griffin's first speech since the riots, instead of turning their backs like they usually did all other senators left the room in protest. Leaving Griffin giving a speech to an empty room. Save the North West Senate’s Presiding Officer Bill Egerton who audibly sighed and tutted as Griffin spoke. This caused much amusement in the local press and Egerton became a media sensation.

In the weeks following the Oldham Riots membership of groups such as the Anti-Nazi League grew by nearly 2,000 members. The ANL prioritized its next campaign around preventing the BNP reaching the 4% threshold to enter national politics. Several regional Governments led by the North West Straw administration expanded its anti-racism legislation.This was celebrated by many. Pro-Commonwealth activists argued that the spotlight caused by their new platform killed the BNP. Anti-Commonwealth campaigners pointed out that because of electoral reform the far right now had staff, offices and legitimacy.

North West Premier Jack Straw Condemning the Violence and announcing measures to crack down on far-right groups

"Oldham saw the darkside of our expanded democracy, whilst it allowed new ideas to flourish it also brought extremists like the BNP and unfortunately cost people their lives" - Micheal White, The Darkside of Representation, Oldham One Year on", The Guardian (2002)

To what extent do you agree with the statement "Representation killed extreme parties such as the BNP" (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam 2019

 

[powerab]

This is not an update, I'll pepper wikiboxes in occasionally to give add a bit of world building, allowing us to see areas not usually covered, will normally be smaller scale stuff, Regional Parliament Elections, Metro Mayoral Elections ect.

Micheal Meacher surprised many to top the ballot of Labour members to be their candidate for the 1999 elections. Whereas in other areas Blair's team had put a thumb on the scale to ensure friendly candidates won ballots, the party's head office seemed fairly relaxed with Meacher's ascension.

The Conservatives selected Nicholas Winterton, a parliamentary veteran and arch social Conservative. The calculation was to win over more socially-Conservative areas such as Blackpool at the expense of larger cities such as Liverpool which were seen as lost causes.

The Liberal Democrats selected MP and former Baptist lay preacher Andrew Stunnell. His platform revolved around clean energy and making the North West into a "Green Powerhouse."

Ultimately Labour came close to a majority but still had to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats to form a functioning coaltion.

"Blair saw local and regional offices and an easy way to get rid of national left-wing politicians and replace them with more ideologically aligned politicians nationally. Whether it was John McDonnell becoming Mayor of Hillingdon to Michael Meacher becoming First Minister of the North West. As far as Blair was concerned the further away from Westminster the better. Cushy regional jobs would be the new sealed tomb. Besides Meacher would be firmly under the thumb of Premier Jack Straw, or so he thought." - The Control Freaks: How New Labour Gets Its Own Way, Nick Jones (2001)

 

[powerab]

In national politics the Foot and Mouth crisis caused mass panic both in agriculture and tourism, however Prime Minister Brown and Health Secretary Alan Beith were praised for their handling of the crisis leading it to be resolved fairly quickly, with the bulk of cases remaining in Cumbria. Brown continued to “turn on the spending taps”, Government spending increased by nearly 5% in real terms. The biggest investment was in transport, seeing a nearly 9% spending increase.

Health Secretary Alan Beith visiting an afflicted farm in his former constituency

Brown also raised funds through telecom frequency radio auctions. A scheme greatly favoured by Davey. Raising over £20 billion for the Government. However this combined with the 2001 dot.com crash caused the loss of 30,000 jobs in British telecoms. Allies of Brown argued that the selling of radio was necessary and that the increases in spending and health education were worth the privatisation and the upset unions it brought with it. Davey had a joint win, driving a wedge between the Chancellor and his unions.

On the international stage the September 11th Attacks led to President Blair committing any support needed to the United States, bringing him closer with President Bush whilst Secretary Ashdown continued to raise concerns with Blair's continuing support for military intervention. “Blairshdownism” humanitarian intervention had been broadly successful and popular. The downfall of Milosevic in Serbia being a great victory. However the Blair/Ashdown relationship was becoming increasingly bitter and Ashdown began to look for a way out.

"Blair's stature as president allowed his relationship with Bush to progress as one of equals, whilst Blair was still accused of "poodleing" Bush would occasionally defer to the more senior President." - David Owen; "The Hubris Syndrome: Bush, Blair and the Intoxication of Power" (2012)

This tension came to a boiling point during discussions about an invasion of Afghanistan where the seven Lib Dem cabinet ministers walked out. Ashdown announced he was resigning as Foreign Secretary and leaving front line politics. After several days of negotiation with the Liberal Democrats the coalition was salvaged. Britain would not be sending boots into Afghanistan. Instead she would provide air strike support and equipment. But no British soldiers would enter the country until a UN resolution specifically condemning the Afghan regime was tabled. Blair had salvaged his coalition for now. Derry Irvine was promoted to Foreign Secretary and Simon Hughes became Home Secretary for the Liberal Democrats.

Ashdown talking to journalists outside his home after his resignation

The United States entered Afghanistan alone. Much to the frustration of Bush and Blair. Blair’s presidential powers in regards to foreign policy allowed him to act more decisively on the world stage then with his old Prime Ministerial powers. Much to the dismay of the anti-war elements of Labour and the Lib Dems. Blair. Irvine and ambassador Jeremy Greenstock worked the UN around the clock, Blair using his seniority and experience to wrangle representatives. Eventually securing resolution 1377 in early November. Which strongly affirmed the UN’s displeasure with the Taliban regime and re-affirmed the right to self-defence. It was a flimsy casus belli, but it was enough and by the end of November British troops were joining US forces into Afghanistan. However the whole affair had put Blair on rough terrain with both the UN and his coalition partners.

President Blair addressing the United Nations

“With Ashdown leaving centre stage there were left three main players, the “Lawsites” who were sceptical of the coalition on economic grounds and wanted to return the party to the centre of British Politics. The Kennedyites who were sceptical the coalition for civil liberties and foreign policy reasons. Finally, The Daveyites who broadly supported the coalition and formed a middle ground between the two sides.” - Duncan Brack “Liberal’s of the Commonwealth” (2018)

 

[powerab]

Donald Dewar, dubbed a father of the nation was a crusader for the Scottish Parliament even before the Diana crisis. Both Blair, Brown and Dewar's high approval ratings gave Dewar an easy win to becoming the Premier. However Dewar surpassed all expectations. Polling showed Dewar on as little as 40% but he blew all expectations out of the water.

The 1999 elections were bitterly disappointing for the SNP. Under the leadership of well known Alex Salmond the party hoped to push itself clearly as Scotland's main opposition party, with some internal polls showing Salmond breaking 30% of the vote. However he only managed a fifth of the vote. Many attributed this to Labour and the Liberal Democrats adopting devo-max positions, leaving the SNP to a rump of hardcore nationalists.

The Liberal Democrats selected their Scottish Leader and Orkney MP Jim Wallace, who had also been at the forefront of the campaign for a Scottish Parliament. Wallace had a good night outperforming the expectations of most to overtake the Conservatives as Scotland's 3rd party.

The Conservatives had a lack of household names in its ranks having not had a strong political presence in Scotland for many years. They selected solicitor and anti-commonwealth campaigner David McLetchie who failed to make a significant impact and allowed the Scottish Tories to fall to fourth place, only two points ahead of the Greens.

The Greens selected teacher LGBT rights campaigner Robin Harper. The virtually unheard of activist had a surprisingly good result with nearly 8% of the vote. Especially considering the Greens put most of their resources into ensuring they broke the 4% threshold allowing MPs into the Scottish Parliament.

"We've had the rug pulled out from under us. Obviously we're very glad of the powers for Scotland but Labour stole our clothes. It no surprise we didn't perform as well as we'd hoped. The fact Scotland even has these powers is thanks to the hard work of Alex Salmond." - "Salmond for Scotland" Campaign Manager Michael Russell speaking on the BBC on election night (1999)

 

[powerab]

“We’ve got to get real. We got nowhere in the last two Parliamentary elections. Unless we take a long look at ourselves we will continue to run on a hamster wheel. 2002 should be a wake up call to us.” - Presidential Candidate Oliver Letwin at the 2004 Conservative Primary Debate

The main event in the Commonwealth was the 2002 Parliamentary “midterm” elections. This would be the first electoral test for the LibLab coalition and for Blair’s Presidency. The big issues of the campaign was the adoption of the Euro, alongside Blair’s approval and the divisions within the Governing coalition.

Under the Leadership of Gordon Brown Labour ran with the slogan “Modern Democracy.” The party hoped to emphasise the progress it had made since 97. Brown preferred to focus on domestic policies pointing towards increased spending on health and transport using this to feed into an overarching theme of progress and modernity.The party made very little noise about the Euro and tried to pitch itself as “sensible Europeans” between the euro-sceptic Tories and europhilie Lib Dems. The party made moderate losses, generally expected by a party that had been in power for five years, but the gains made by the Lib Dems offset this and the coalition ended up with a big majority than before.

The Conservatives had been led in Parliament by Micheal Howard, who failed to make a noticeable impact. The Conservatives ran on the slogan “Radical Change at Home.” Arguing the coalition spent time on discussions about Europe and the Middle East and emphasising the parties acceptance of the Commonwealth. The campaign was focused around crime and immigration attacking “soft-touch” LibLab, underpinned by an anti-euro crusade. Howard didn’t crash and burn like Hague’s campaign, managing to keep the party united and get the occasional hit on Brown but he was frequently outclassed and the party made little impact beyond hardcore anti-euro voters in rural areas.

Ed Davey decided not to lead the Liberal Democrats into the 2002 election, preferring to seek a cabinet post. Instead Menzies Campbell, a junior Foreign Officer Minister became the party's parliamentary leader. Campbell was popular and the Lib Dems managed to maintain the difficult balancing act of keeping its rural euro-sceptic voters and urban pro-euro voters. Campbell span the party at the “coalition’s conscious” emphasising their slogan of “Freedom Justice Honesty” the party attempted to portray itself as the “straight man” to Labour’s spin. The Lib Dems had the best night of all the parties gaining nearly 30 seats.

For the other parties it was a stalemate. UKIP still hovered around the 4% mark in most regions however it dropped below 4% in Wales losing its two welsh MPs. The SNP continued to hold onto the 20% of hardcore nationalists in Scotland and smaller parties like the Greens and BNP failed to break through.

Prime Minister Brown and President Blair at a Campaign Stop in Streatham, London, the London region saw some of the biggest Lib Dem gains of the night

Parliamentary Seats after the 2002 Election
Labour - 279 (-21)
Conservative - 170 (-1)
Liberal Democrats 138 (+24)
UK Independence Party - 24 (-2)
Scottish National Party - 12 (-)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (-)
Sinn Fein - 5 (-)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 4 (-)
Ulster Unionist Party - 4 (-)
Democratic Unionist Party - 4 (-)
Scot Socialists - 3 (-)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1 (-)
UK Unionist Party - 1 (-)

Cabinet of the Commonwealth 2002-
President - Tony Blair (Labour)
Vice President - John Prescott (Labour)
Prime Minister - Gordon Brown (Labour)
Deputy Prime Minister - Menzies Campbell (Liberal Democrat)
Senate Leader - Margaret Beckett (Labour)
Foreign Secretary - Derry Irvine (Labour)
Chancellor of the Exchequer - Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat)
Home Secretary - Ann Taylor (Labour)
Justice Secretary - Robin Cook (Labour)
Defence Secretary - Gareth Williams (Labour)
Health Secretary - Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)
Business Secretary - Stephen Byers (Labour)
Chair of the Board of Trade - Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat)
Work and Pensions Secretary - Geoff Hoon (Labour)
Education Secretary - Tessa Jowell (Labour)
Environment Secretary - Paul Keetch (Liberal Democrat)
Housing Secretary - John Reid (Labour)
Transport Secretary - Helen Liddell (Labour
Northern Ireland Secretary - Hilary Armstrong (Labour)
Scotland Secretary - Malcolm Bruce (Liberal Democrat)
Wales Secretary - Paul Murphy (Labour)
Digital, Media and Sport Secretary - Steve Webb (Liberal Democrat)
International Development Secretary - Phil Willis (Liberal Democrat)

Senator Charles Kennedy Arriving for a Meeting with Prime Minister-elect Gordon Brown

Due to the Liberal Democrat’s strong performance they negotiated an extra cabinet post, bringing the number of Lib Dems to eight. One of the most surprising appointments was anti-war Senator Charles Kennedy to Chancellor of the Exchequer. However Kennedy had a strong relation with Brown and they shared a desire to expand the state’s role in the economy. Kennedy’s appointment also allowed Brown to dip the Lib Dems hands in the blood of tax increases.

“Certain historians have claimed I made Charles Chancellor to make foreign intervention easier and to avoid scrutiny from him in the Senate. This is categorically untrue. The Lib Dems had won nearly 150 seats, they deserved a big job as per their mandate. It just so happened Charles was the most capable member of their ranks and someone Gordon could get on with.” - “A Journey” - Tony Blair (2011)

"The fact so few seats changed hands with the 2002 election shows voters were satisfied with the Coalition and Blair's Presidency", Discuss (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

Labour selected young rising star Ben Bradshaw, hand-picked by Premier candidate Dawn Primarolo. Central office thought Labour's chance of winning the South West was low. Instead it would be a staging ground to boost the profile of loyal Blairites like Bradshaw. As Bradshaw admitted in an interview the Labour campaign was about holding on to 2nd place against the Liberal Democrats. Even Bradshaw was shocked when he topped the polls.

The Liberal Democrats went with Devon MP Nick Harvey. The former PR exec ran a slick campaign "more New Labour than New Labour" one Conservative candidate described it. If there was any area the Lib Dems were going to win it was the South West and Harvey had ample resources. Harvey focused most his recourses on far west rural counties like Devon and Cornwall.

What made 99 so bitter for the Conservatives was the fact they lost in all of their traditional heartlands. Southern candidates like Shadow International Development Secretary Gary Streeter thought they were a shoe-in when the election was first called and found themselves in 3rd place. Like Tory candidates across the country they had a disappointing night.

What made the South West interesting is it had one of the lowest vote share for all the major parties. The Greens and UKIP both did exceptionally well in the South West. UKIP due to the Euroscepticism of the South West and the Greens due to its support for rural issues and the popularity of "Dr Taylor" the Green's lead candidate Dr David Taylor was a GP and they made ample mention of this in their campaign literature. The Liberal Party also found support in the South West as an anti-authoritarian and anti-establishment campaign.

The Liberals even managed to enter Government. With the Lib Dems unwilling to work with UKIP and the Greens unwilling to work with the Tories. For Nick Harvey to cobble together a coalition he needed the support of the Conservatives and the Liberals and Paul Holmes became the South West's Health Minister

"What do you mean there's two Liberal Parties!?" - Plymouth Voter talking to Jean Pollock, a Liberal Party candidate on the doorstep

 

[powerab]

President Blair announcing the date and terms of the 2004 Euro Referendum

After the 2002 election the Liberal Democrats were eager to hold Blair’s feet to the fire over the Euro. Over the course of the 2002 summer several negotiations were held with all parties. In December Blair announced the referendum would be held in 2004 to coincide with the Presidential election. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats preferred a long campaign believing the Government’s popularity could hoist up an unpopular euro. Furthermore coinciding with 2004 would increase turnout bringing votes for Blair and the Lib Dem candidate to the polls who, in theory, would vote “down ballot” for the Euro. There were fears that if the referendum was held on its own in late 2002 the only people who turned out to vote would be “shire fruitcakes.”

The 2004 date gave the Government 18 months of wiggle room. Although campaigning wouldn’t officially start until early 2004 Blair dispatched pro-Euro ministers to lay the groundwork. Justice Secretary Robin Cook gave a passionate performance on the BBC’s “Breakfast with Frost” emphasising Britain’s “European destiny.”

Justice Secretary Robin Cook on BBC Breakfast the morning after the referendum's announcement

“Senior figures like Buckingham Director of Strategy Jonathan Powell knew the referendum was doomed to fail, although he never told Blair or Kennedy that. But the Lib Dems needed it to keep the coalition going so their hands were tied. Planning the referendum was more about damage limitation and avoiding embarrassment to the Government then actually winning support for the Euro.” - Roller Coaster, how it all went wrong for Blair, Geoffrey Wheatcroft (2007)

Whilst this was happening Blair was making different manoeuvres behind the scenes. The situation in the middle east was ramping up and US President Bush was eager for an invasion, something Blair also supported. Blair was keen to avoid the embarrassment and chaos of the Ashdown affair. Whilst during the long summer days Euro negotiations took place in Buckingham, when night fell Blair began to have secret meetings in Buckingham with loyal ministers and top military brass. Noticeably absent were any representatives from the Liberal Democrats, or any of Blair’s anti-war Labour ministers such as Robin Cook. In the quiet of Buckingham Blair, Irvine and others would work out how to make the case for an invasion of Iraq, and how to sell it to their Liberal Democrat colleagues.

In Autumn this came to fruition when Foreign Secretary Derry Irvine gave a speech setting out a dossier from the British Government alleging Iraq was producing weapons of mass destruction and that Saddam Hussein could deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes of an order to use them. The speech sent shock-waves throughout Britain and the international community immediately dividing the country. The Liberal Democrats were particularly incensed as Campbell and Kennedy were only told of the speech 36 hours before it was due to be given.

Foreign Secretary Derry Irvine leaving 11 Downing Street after a meeting with Chancellor Kennedy, carrying the infamous dossier. Irvine looks noticeably shaken and describes in his memories that Kennedy "gave me rather the telling off"

Blair’s “stagecoach” strategy hadn’t failed him so far. Blair and his allies calculated if they could use Blair’s influence and bully-pulpit to build up a pro-war base in Parliament in the general public quickly. Then the Liberal Democrats wouldn’t have time to react. The lack of information to Campbell and Kennedy left them constantly on the back foot and reacting to the actions of their own government.

“And now we know the truth, Labour lied to its own coalition partner. What’s to stop them from lying to you? The British people! Are you thinking what we’re thinking? Because I think this show has gone on long enough!” - An emotional speech by Conservative Parliamentary Lead Candidate David Davis in a 2005 Parliamentary Election campaign stop after a memo from one of Blair’s secret meetings was leaked.

To what extent did Blair use his influence as President to prevent opposition to the Iraq War (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

London was the only region with a Labour candidate on the ballot that Labour did not win. However this was little solace to the Conservatives as it was left-wing firebrand Ken Livingstone. The Independent minded GLC leader had decided his platform was large enough he didn't need Labour with this new voting system. Livingstone's victory speech was fairly combative disappointing some in Labour who believed he would return to the fold.

He found himself proven right. A highly personal campaign had him winning 48% of the vote in the first round, far beyond what anyone had expected. Livingstone won a clear victory in the 2nd round and set about setting up a Government as the undisputed head of London, with support from Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour performed better than expected. Frank Dobson was a reluctant candidate and would have much preferred to keep his position as Secretary of State for Health. Doggedly loyal Dobson answered when the party called and managed to hold Labour's 2nd place.

Conservatives knew they were in for a rough night when the London results came through. Though few expected to win the capital, most in party HQ believed with a split left Duncan-Smith would be the clear runner up. Instead the Conservative right's standard bearer came in third place. His campaign slogan of "Quietly competent" contrasted himself with the flashy publicity seeking Livingstone but it failed to cut through.

The third parties had a night about as well as expected. UKIP decided not to run a candidate and instead endorsed Duncan-Smith's brand of euro-scepticism. The Liberal Democrats had a mildly disappointing night considering its strong showing across the rest of the country. This was attributed to Livingstone's popularity against the relatively unknown Hughes. The Greens selected MEP Jean Lambert, mainly as a mechanism to boost the Green's profile and boost them over the 4% threshold which she did and more netting the Greens 7% of the vote.

"Londoners today have shown they don't need parties telling them what to do. They don't need tubes privatised or spin doctors selling glossy initiatives. What Londoners need is straight talk and real solutions, a cheaper tube, cleaner air, better buses. These are all real things, you don't need a spin doctor, you need an Independent." - Livingstone's victory speech (2000)

 

[powerab]

2003 did not begin well for President Blair. Strained relations between his party and the Liberal Democrats came to a height in February when the UN's Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission reported they had failed to find any weapons of mass destruction. Campbell and Kennedy gave an ultimatum. Pull back from war or face the collapse of the coalition.

“They seek to manage, not lead; to manipulate, not tell it as it is. I didn't used to believe that all power corrupts. That was until I came face to face with this President. We, the several million here tonight demand our President be honest and listen to his people. But I fear he will not. We have lost a Queen and gained a Tyrant!” - Charles Kennedy Speaking at the Iraq War March (2003)

Deputy Prime Minister Menzies Campbell and Chancellor Charles Kennedy in a Meeting of Liberal Democrat Leaders debating the end of the coalition.

Blair was not prepared to back down. On the 14th of February the coalition collapsed. Unlike Afghanistan it could not be salvaged. Charles Kennedy found himself going from 11 Downing Street to the stage in Hyde Park in a matter of hours. Cynics thought the timing was very convenient. Allowing the Lib Dems to arrive as the last minute saviours to the nearly two million people marching against the war. Chalres Kennedy’s speech was very cutting. “Tony the Tyrant” was splashed across front pages of anti-war newspapers like the Independent.

Hyde Park had a strange mix of characters. Figures from the Labour Left such as North West First Minister Micheal Meacher, Hillingdon Mayor John McDonnell and the West Midlands Premier Clare Short. Other minor party figures such as Green Regional Senator Caroline Lucas took to the streets. But two figures stood at the centre of the media’s attention. Former Chancellor Kennedy and Premier Ken Livingstone. Both great speakers and highly popular they decried the march to war. However as he railed against the Government Ken Livingstone had quietly registered as a Labour supporter.

John McDonnell, the "Red Mayor" of Hillingdon, on the Iraq War March

“The next time a large bomb explodes in a western city, or an Arab or Muslim regime topples and is replaced by extremists, the Government must consider the extent to which the policy contributed to it. That is why Senators should pause and ask why. As is our job. It is our role to cool and check the passions of the Commons. We have had 48 hours to consider this resolution. We cannot do our job properly in 48 hours. We must push this motion back and the Government must reconsider.” - Senator Ken Clarke Speaking on the Floor of the Senate (2003)

Senator Ken Clarke Speaking on the Floor of the Senate

At the same time Blair was establishing his new minority Government, appointing Ministers to replace departed Lib Dems and anti-war politicians such as Robin Cook. He spent the rest of early 2003 at the UN trying to push through a resolution to support the war. Twice the US and the UK tabled anti-Iraq resolutions. Each time they were opposed by France, Russia and Germany. Eventually the pair gave up and Bush unilaterally gave Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave Iraq, or face war. Parliament gave approval for the Iraq War on the 18th March. With a 350 to 216 in favour. The senate also gave its approval to the war two days later. In late March the invasion began.

The War was over fairly quickly. Blair had sent nearly 50,000 soldiers to Iraq. Around a third of the Commonwealth’s total military force. Young men from all nations and regions left home to travel to Iraq. Some never return. As Commander in Chief Blair took a personal interest in the day to day fighting. Receiving daily briefings in Buckingham from top military officers. By early April Baghdad had fallen and the search for weapons of mass destruction had begun. “Tony the Tyrant” was riding high. As he looked forward to his comfortable re-election.

"Baghdad has fallen. The war is over. But the battle continues. Coalition forces may well face a difficult and dangerous period of flushing out Iraqi forces, particularly the various groups of irregulars, thugs and fanatics who hang on to the coattails of the regime.” - Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon announcing the fall of Baghdad (2003)

Tony Blair meeting US General David Petraeus in Buckingham weeks before the war

Iraq War Vote in Parliament
AYE (350)
Labour - 174
Conservative - 150
UK Independence Party - 16
Ulster Unionist Party - 4
Democratic Unionist Party - 4
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 1
UK Unionist Party - 1

NAY (216)
Liberal Democrats - 135
Labour - 58
Scottish National Party - 12
Plaid Cymru - 5
Scottish Socialist Party - 3
Conservative - 2
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 1

ABSTAIN (83)
Labour - 47
Conservative - 18
UK Independence Party - 8
Sinn Fein - 4
Liberal Democrats - 3
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3

Commonwealth Cabinet (2003-) (Labour Minority)
President - Tony Blair
Vice President - John Prescott
Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
Senate Leader and Justice Secretary - Margaret Beckett
Foreign Secretary - Derry Irvine
Chancellor of the Exchequer - John Reid
Home Secretary - Gareth Williams
Defence Secretary - Geoff Hoon
Health Secretary - Tessa Jowell
Business Secretary - Paul Murphy
President of the Board of Trade - Hilary Armstrong
Work and Pensions Secretary - Peter Goldsmith
Education Secretary - Peter Hain
Environment Secretary- Ian McCartney
Housing Secretary - Valerie Amos
Transport Secretary - Charlie Falconer
Northern Ireland Secretary - Hilary Benn
Scotland Secretary - Douglas Alexander
Wales Secretary - Ivor Richard
Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Secretary - Alan Johnson
International Development Secretary - Ruth Kelly

“The Lib Dem decision to leave the Coalition in early 2003 was cynical political ploy rather than a principled anti-war stance”, discuss (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

Chancellor Reid angrily confronting a photographer, one of many gaffs during the election

Whilst the build up to war was happening in the back of everyone’s minds was still the 2003 senate election. This would be the first electoral test of the public’s support for the war in Iraq and the new Labour minority Government. With a relatively inconsequential 2002 election all eyes were on the senate.

“I think it's past time I entered the real world rather then spending any longer in our champagne guzzling bubble." - Conservative Senate Leader Micheal Ancram Announcing his Resignation

Margaret Beckett stood down as Labour’s Senate Leader to focus on her work as the Justice Secretary. She was replaced by Blair loyalist and Iraq war advocate Chancellor John Reid. Labour believing its only option was the double down on the war. Labour was hoping to minimise losses and for a repeat of the 2002 election. Running on the slogan “Britain is doing well.” often followed by “don’t the Tories ruin it.”

The Liberal Democrats had surged in the opinion polls since their resignation and their eyes on the official opposition. As such they selected David Laws, from the “modernisers” faction of the Liberal Democrats. The aim being to appeal to Tory shire voters and smaller towns who may have been put off by the more radical Kennedy. The Lib Dems specifically ran as anti traditional politics with the slogan “No slogans, just facts.” Contrasting themselves with the spin friendly Labour.

The Tories had also lost their leader. Michael Ancram had stepped down to spend more time “in the real world.” Many saw this as code for “planning a Presidential run.” Seeing the threat from the Liberal Democrats the Tories selected moderate reformer Oliver Letwin. They aimed to highlight the disarray of the Government and run a “libertarian” platform attacking Blair’s perceived abuses of power. The party even co-opted the anti-war protesters “not in my name” slogan. This caused much outrage in the anti-war community for a pro-war party to adopt their slogan.

Third parties also saw opportunity. UKIP ran to appeal to right wing voters disaffected with the pro-European Letwin. The Greens also saw an opportunity for a national breakthrough. Greens had seen success in every nation and region. They had been at the forefront of the anti-war protests and were the only national party to have fully opposed both Afghanistan and Iraq.

Labour - 136 (-28)
Liberal Democrats - 79 (+23)
Conservatives - 76 (-10)
UK Independence Party - 18 (+6)
Green Party - 10 (+10)
Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (+3)
Sinn Fein - 7 (-)
Scottish National Party - 6 (-)
Ulster Unionist Party - 6 (-1)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 6 (-1)
Plaid Cymru - 4 (-)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 2 (-)
Scottish Socialist Party - 1 (-1)

“Today London has shown they want a party with good ideas, who will represent the climate in Westminster. Through hard work during the campaign we have inspired people to vote for us. We won’t London down.” - Senator Sian Berry’s victory speech at the London count

The results were a slap in Labours face. Whilst Labour was still by far the largest party it had lost 30 seats. With the Liberal Democrats refusing to talk Labour had very few options. All the other left wing parties like the SNP and the Greens were strongly anti-war and were unwilling to support the Government. By comparison the Liberal Democrats found their anti-war stance vindicated. Taking 2nd place and increasing their Senate seats by a third. A great boost to the right wing faction of the Lib Dems.

The Tories had their fourth consecutive election of decline falling to third place. Losing votes to the Lib Dems and the Greens Third parties had a strong night. UKIP increased its senators by 50% and the Greens had their first national breakthrough breaking 4% in several regions with Sian Berry leading a cohort of ten Green Senators..

Green Lead Senate Candidate Sian Berry on the Campaign Trail

Work then began on Government formation. The Senate found itself in several weeks of stalemate with none of the three major parties able to form a working majority to elect a Senate Leader. Eventually Oliver Letwin announced the Tories would support David Laws to become the Senate Leader. With the combined fault of the Lib Dems and Tories, alongside abstention by smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens led to David Laws becoming the leader of the Senate.

“I don’t agree with Senator Laws on most things but I know he will stand up to an overarching Labour state. I cannot become Senate Leader. So we have two men in front of us. Senator Laws or another Labour yes-man. Conservative Senators will hold Laws to account just as we held Beckett to account but for now we must support the lesser of two evils. That’s why we will be voting for Senator Laws.” - Conservative Senate Leader Oliver Letwin

Letwin announcing his support for David Laws

Oliver Letwins decision to support David Laws as Senate Leader in 2003 did more good than harm to the Conservative’s revival, discuss (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

Wales had been a Labour stronghold since long before the Commonwealth. This election was no exception. Although Labour lost senators in line with the national swing it was still miles ahead in Wales. With as many Senators are all the other parties combined. The Liberal Democrats had a strong night adding two extra senators National Farmers Union official Mick Bates and Welsh Parliament member Eleanor Burnham. The Conservatives had a disappointing night not gaining any senators but it wasn't as bad as other parts of the country as the Conservatives held onto all their seats and even gained votes. This trend against the national swing was attributed to Letwin's heavy campaigning in the Celtic nations, Wales' opposition to the Euro and UKIP's weakness in Wales.

Third parties also had a disappointing night, 27 year old Jonathan Edwards began Plaid's leader in the Senate but a lack of profile meant he failed to cut through. UKIP's sole Welsh Senator David Rowlands avoided the fate of his Parliamentary colleagues and managed to hold onto his seat with a reduced majority. Unlike elsewhere the Greens failed to jump the 4% hurdle and their candidate, Molly Scott Cato was not elected.

"The rural parts of our nation will no longer be ignored. Wales isn't just Cardiff its a beautiful diverse nation and today it has made Tony Blair sit up and listen!" - Newly elected Senator Mick Bates' victory speech

 

[powerab]

2003, Part 3, A Spark

Ken Livingstone announces his candidacy in the same place he'd marched months earlier (2003)

“I have not recognised my party for a long time.Its why I stood for Premier as an Independent. Over the last five years we have proven that you can have a progressive Government without privatisation or getting cosy with big business. But it’s something more than that. I marched with two million people against the imperialist wars of Bush and Blair. I have never seen anything like that in my political life. On the back of that movement we can win the Presidency and win a new Britain. That’s why I’m running for President.” - Ken Livingstone’s announcement speech at a Hyde Park rally (2003)

Many within Labour felt they had lost their party. These people watched Blair pass over left-leaning MPs for Liberal Democrats and watched the Socialist Campaign Group shrink further and further, with members either moving to regional politics or retiring all together. Even the great standard bearer Tony Benn had stood down at the 2002 election. For the Labour left it seemed hopeless. Until Livingstone announced his candidacy and Blair’s safe re-election bid was blown wide open.

Blair’s campaign was focused around damage limitation. Early in the campaign the hope was if they ignored him Livingstone would go away. Blair was “getting on with governing.” However as Livingstone’s rallies grew (as well as his poll numbers) Blair could not longer ignore it. Blair appointed new arrival John McTernan as his campaign director and his left-wing Vice President John Presscot as the campaigns chair. Blair campaigned emphasised Livingstone’s more radical leanings and the dangers of a Tory Presidency. Very few expected Livingstone to win, the goal was to avoid him getting enough votes to embarrass the Government.

Blair's team discuss the primary campaign. (2003)

Ken Livingstone appointed veteran Labour office Simon Fletcher as his chief of staff and he even managed to court Tony Benn as his campaign chair. Livingstone launched a blitz of speeches and rallies across the country. Video of thousands of people turning out to rallies in Birmingham, Leicester and Tower Hamlets. Livingstone’s main target were larger cities with big student and ethnic minority populations. However Livingstone struggled in rural working class Labour areas and among the Labour elites with only a few dozen MPs endorsing Livingstone and he only gained the endorsement of one other Premier, West Midlands Premier Clare Short.

Whilst this was happening there was a 3rd man lurking in the shadows. Tony Blair’s relationship with his Prime Minister Gordon Brown over the course of six years in Government. With Brown believing Blair should stand down rather than seek a third term at the top of British politics. Brown quietly consulted with his allies and seemed ready to announce a bid before being talked down by North East Senator Peter Mandelson.

“I won’t pretend the thought of running didn’t cross my mind in 2003. Livingstone had blown the race right open. Tony was looking weaker and weaker day by day. A part of me thought I could come in and save the party, and the country from years of Tory rule. Maybe I should have gone for it. I saw my chance but never took it.” - My Life, Our Times, Gordon Brown (2017)

A Livingstone Rally in Birmingham (2003)

Eventually Blair decided to nip the Livingstone campaign in the bud. He agreed to a US-style “Primary Debate” on the BBC. Just weeks before the polls. It was a big risk. Watched by nearly four million the debate marked a first in British Politics taking place in Salford, Manchester. For an hour the two candidates exchanged barbs.

Livingstone attacked Blair for his relationship with George Bush and his support for the Iraq War. “It’s about credibility, its about what we as a party stand for. We are an anti-war party, an anti-imperialist. There are working class Muslim communities here in Manchester that might never vote for us again because of your actions Mr President. The President calls me unelectable but I had two million people marching with me against his Government. Two million votes we need to win.” However polls after the event showed Livingstone had turned off many voters he often lost his cool and turned visibly red at points. He was also heavily combative with Blair in the debate, interrupting Blair to say “lie” several times through the debate.

Blair hammered home the progressive change his Presidency had as well as Livingstone’s association with extremists. “I’m sorry Ken but what of my Government do you not find progressive. Is it the massive pay rise for working class people through the minimum wage, is it the fact that every child in this country had access to a warm meal. I’m sorry but marching doesn’t achieve that. You need grown up politicians doing grown up politics. I mean I removed the monarchy is that not radical enough for you?” Blair landed some particularly stinging remarks. “The truth is nothing will ever be enough for Premier Livingstone, because he works through the politics of protest, he doesn’t want to govern he wants to sell newspapers.”

An older-looking Blair at the Salford debate (2003)

Blair was in his element. Cool and collected. Landing several well placed remarks on Livingstone Blair had practised heavily for the debate and had hired several strategists from the Democratic Party to train him. Blair looked into the camera, spoke in terms people could understand and looked Presidential. The impact was electric and Livingstone dropped by six points in the polls.

The results were a landslide for Blair. Eight million registered Labour supporters turned out, much higher than expected and Blair won six million votes. Livingstone failed to cut through to most Labour voters. Whilst he performed well in his home region of London (the only region he won), as well as in the larger cities more diverse like Bradford and Birmingham. The fact was despite the war most Labour voters seemed satisfied with the Blair Government, or at least more scared of the Conservatives than Blair. Livingstone had lit a spark, but it was quickly snuffed out.

"How far do you agree with the statement: "Ken Livingstone's bid for the Presidency was a pointless vanity project that had little impact on British politics" (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

The Conservatives were also experiencing their primary. The situation looked grim for the party. The 1999 election was a disaster for the party and they had only declined since then. The Government had maintained high approval ratings for years, only beginning to slip in 2003 due to a mix of the coalition collapsing, the war, the euro and division in the Labour ranks. Party elites were desperate to avoid a chaotic primary like in 1998 and after a few choice calls by Federal Chair Annabel Goldie, party elites began to rally around the party’s Parliamentary Leader Micheal Howard. Both Ian Duncan Smith and Liam Fox considered candidacies but instead united behind Howard.

Senator Ken Clarke was the First Conservative to announce his candidacy

Howard was by far the most recognisable Tory to the man on the street. Howard had duelled Gordon Brown once a week for nearly five years. His typically aggressive style managed to land the occasional strong hit that made it onto the 6 o’clock news, most famously remarking “"I asked the Prime Minister two questions, he has answered neither, perhaps he is waiting for permission from the President.” Howard pitched himself as a unity candidate seen as naturally a man of the party’s right, but able to appeal to all sides. Howard was a safe choice for voters who wanted to maintain traditional Conservative values without risking a split in the party.

Libertarian MP David Davis was Howard’s main challenger. The former SAS reservist was known as a maverick in Conservative circles. Fiercely opposed to both the Commonwealth and the Euro, Davis was the standard bearer for the party’s right and even garnered the endorsement of Margaret Thatcher and the “NoEuro” campaign. A strong debater according to his memoirs Davis was the only candidate who Howard truly feared.

Scottish aristocrat and former Senate Leader Micheal Ancram was a former One-Nation Tory wet turned Hague lieutenant and arch-Conservative. Known for his impeccable polite mannerism and his good humour and warmth Ancram pitched himself as the candidate to reach out to the ordinary voter, ironic due to his blue-blooded background. He weaponized nostalgia in his campaign using his aristocratic background to talk about the “old Britain.” Ancram’s slogan put this front and centre “If you value Britain vote for Ancram”

Former Senator Ancram at a press conference in Sheffield

The party’s incumbent Senate Leader Oliver Letwin also tried to pitch himself as an establishment unity candidate. However he found himself passed over by party elites in favour of Howard. Letwin’s decision to support David Laws ascension to Senate Leader won him few friends in the party who thought he had opened the door to the Liberal Democrats becoming the Commonwealth’s main opposition party.

Ken Clarke ran the most ambitious campaign. Running on a brazenly pro-Euro platform amongst the euro-sceptic Conservative base didn’t play particularly well. Clarke emphasised his electable credentials and promised to tone down the power of the Presidency, taking people with him rather than the domineering essence of the Blair Presidency. Clarke emphasised this with his slogan “People and Parliament.”

The Tory party debate took place in London and narrowly defeated the Labour debate for a number of viewers. Howard and Davis dominated the five way debate, Clarke was audibly booed by the audience and both Ancram and Letwin failed to make any sort of cut through. Howard attacked Davis for being divisive and risking another five years of a Labour presidency. “Voting for Mr Davis is a huge risk. We will see activists and MPs at each other's throats and Tony Blair will be laughing all the way to Buckingham.” He also had some choice words for Oliver Letwin. “Mr Letwin calls himself the safe option, do you know what risk looks like? Risk looks like handing control of our senate over to the Euro-fanatic, Blair quisling Liberal Democrats.”

Davis slammed Howard for voting for the Euro Referendum, one of the most watched parts of the night.

Davis attacked Howard for ordering Tory MPs to vote for Blair’s Euro-referendum. “Leader Howard preaches against the Euro but he voted for the referendum. Leader Howard, two thirds of this country don’t want the Euro, why did you support a pointless referendum that will cost this country millions of pounds?” He also contrasted his upbringing with some of the other candidates on the stage, with a hyperbolic swing at Ancram. “I was raised in a slum by a working class single mother. Some people on this stage grew up in a castle. Who represents you more.”

Polling showed Howard as the clear winner of the debate. Both Clarke and Letwin found their campaigns destroyed overnight. However the Conservatives were criticised for their “pale, male and stale” lineup. Over the next few weeks Howard and Davis were neck and neck as the party became more and more divided between the elites and the grassroots. Howard was counting on the support of Conservative voting independents who joined to support the party and vote for him over the more radical Davis.

Howard etched a narrow victory over David Davis. Compared to Blair’s stomping of Ken Livingstone. However Howard’s strong performance on the campaign trail had made him a household name, and a well practised debater. Howard was now faced with uniting the party and had to choose a Vice-Presidential candidate. Howard had hinted at selecting one of his primary opponents previously. He needed someone who wouldn’t overshadow him. Who could keep the right wing Davis supporters happy without alienating the one-nation Conservatives, preferably someone from outside the House of Commons and someone who could balance his abrasive personality. Eventually whittling his shortlist down to five names.

• Former Senate Leader Micheal Ancram
• Yorkshire MP David Davis
• South West Senator Liam Fox
• Senate Leader Oliver Letwin
• East of England Senator Tim Yeo

Micheal Howard discussing his shortlist with his core staff

Yeo and Fox were dropped for consideration for being too divisive. David Davis was considered for a long time but the relationship between the two had deteriorated over the course of the Primary, and there were concerns Davis would outclass Howard. From the final two Howard settled on Ancram, the two got on well, Ancram could appeal to Scotland and he wouldn’t enrage the right like choosing Letwin would. With his running mate selected the race for Buckingham had officially begun.

"The Conservatives should have chosen David Davis in 2003, discuss" - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

Of all the Conservative bastions to fall none stung more than the South East. This mostly rural region, filled with shires that had formed the backbone of the party had fallen to Labour. Larger cities such as Brighton and Oxford and smaller towns such as Slough and Crawly alike fell to Labour.

Labour had selected Oxford MP and unpredictable Blair ally Andrew Smith. Whilst he had been close to New Labour he had often rebelled on everything from air traffic control privatisation to nuclear weapons and airport expansion. Smith managed to unite all wings of South East Labour. Meanwhile the Conservatives selected David Willetts, a moderate who specialised in welfare policy, and one of the few Conservatives to openly campaign for the Commonwealth in the 1998 referendum. The Lib Dems selected animal rights activist and "serial bore" Norman Baker. Baker was seen on the left of the party and an ally of Charles Kennedy and one of the Lib Dem's fiercest pro-Commonwealth campaigners.

The policy closeness between the three and their support for the Commonwealth was lamented by UKIP candidate Nigel Farage who said you "couldn't fit a cigarette paper" between Smith, Willetts and Baker during the Premier debate. Farage's Premier campaign was mainly to boost his profile as UKIP's Parliamentary leader and to ensure that Willetts didn't move too far to the left. MEP Caroline Lucas also ran for the Greens from their moderniser faction. As one of their most notable figures she put in a strong performance earning nearly 9% of the vote, breathing down Farage's neck.

Smith's victory was one of the closest results of night. After several recounts Smith was finally declared the winner at 7am with a majority of just 10,000 votes. Smith's victory became one of the great "Portillo moments" of the night.

"When I lost in 97 I thought, oh god I think we're in trouble. When David lost the South East in 99, I thought oh shit we are really in trouble." - Micheal Portillo in an interview with medium magazine (2017)

 

[powerab]

Former Chancellor Charles Kennedy on the Campaign in Newcastle

The Liberal Democrats found themselves on the verge of greatness. They had what all third parties crave, legitimacy, Parliamentary power and a plethora of household names. However the party found itself incredibly divided over its future. The party had found itself going from a few dozen MPs to a party of Government overnight, and it had never really come to terms with that. The 2004 primary would prove a reckoning for the party.

The party was divided between three major factions. The first were the Social Democrats, most notably former Chancellor Charles Kennedy and Home Secretary Simon Hughes. The Social Democrats opposed Blair’s premiership due to the Iraq war and concerns about civil liberties. The second faction were the old-school Ashdownite Liberals, most notably Menzies Campbell. The Ashdownites were the most supportive of the coalition with Labour and tried to walk a middle ground between the social democrats and modernisers. Finally there were the modenisiers, represented by high ranking senators such as David Laws and Nick Clegg. The modernisers were the most hostile to working with Labour and most open to working with the Conservatives. They had a classical liberal/libertarian streak and were weary of over-spending on public services.

Former Chancellor Charles Kennedy was the most well known Lib Dem. He had gained accolades amongst the lib dem left for his stand against the Iraq War and his support for progressive economics whilst in Government. He was also well known amongst the general public through his appearance on comedy shows such as “Mock the Week.” Kennedy’s campaign centred around his opposition to the Iraq War. As well as Kennedy’s straight shooting everyman persona, his slogan emphasised this; “Principle and Decency.”

Former Deputy Prime Minister Menzies Campbell became the standard bearer of the party’s modernisiers. Although not as radical as Laws, Campbell was seen as sympathetic to the modernisers without unacceptable the left. Campbell was also the most experienced candidate having served as Deputy PM and had a strong background in Foreign Affairs. Campbell was seen as a soft-spoken compromise candidate who could bring the country together. His slogan was “fairness, freedom and environmental protection.”

Menzies Campbell built his platform as the Liberal Democrat's Parliamentary Leader.

Former Home Secretary Simon Hughes was also a well known figure, having served as Home Secretary and right hand man to Paddy Ashdown in the early days of the Commonwealth. Having served as an MP since the 80s he argued he had more experience than even Campbell. Hughes was also charismatic, a good speaker and popular amongst grassroots activists. Hughes was a good choice for voters who wanted to keep the Lib Dems leaning to the left but we worried about the rumours surrounding Kennedy. Hughes’ slogan was mocked for its similarity to Campbell: “Freedom, fairness and sustainability.”

Senate Leader David Laws was the most radical of the party’s modernisers. Laws wanted a “clean break” with Labour and wanted the party to rule out re-entering the coalition, and to do more to reach out to the tories. Laws also campaigned on the party being “more than just Iraq.” Laws wanted to campaign on cutting tax and civil liberties and avoid the Liberal Democrats becoming a single issue party. Laws wanted to reach out to people other than the Lib Dem faithful. His slogan was “I’m with David.”

Laws' classical liberal platform was controversial among party activists

Rank outsider Senator John Hemming also made a bid as a traditional old-style Liberal populist. Hemming was known little outside his home city of Birmingham and made much of his name campaigning against family courts and internet censorship, Hemming’s campaign was seen by many as a joke and based his campaign around reducing the power of the President. His slogan was “Say No to an Elected Dictator”

Laws campaign stumbled early with his proposal to work with the Tories despised by much of the Liberal base. Many leading modernisers tactically endorsed the more acceptable Campbell rather than risk the controversial Laws. With Hemming’s campaign dead from the start the election became mostly between Kennedy and Campbell, with Hughes pulling a strong third place. As rumours about Kennedy’s personal life swirled Campbell began to pull ahead.

This was until the debate in which Kennedy put forward one of the best performances of his career. He was funny and personable but also passionate and principled. “Stopping the war isn’t a single issue David, it's about saving the soul of this country. It's about being able to look ourselves in the mirror when we wake up in the morning. It's not a single issue. It is the issue. If you can’t see that you shouldn’t be on this stage.” Kennedy also emphasised his honest nature. “If you’re tired of the lies, of the spin then we have something in common.”

Campbell emphasised the strong work he did through the coalition. “All the other candidates talk about the harm we did in Government, none of them want to talk about all we achieved, prison reform, minimum wage, more money for the NHS, we got things done. I want us to keep getting things done. Other candidates want to turn their back and all that and go on marches.”

Hughes spent most of the debate attacking Campbell and Laws, leading to rumours he had reached a deal with Kennedy. "I am absolutely convinced that moving to the right and sounding like the Blair-Howard consensus is no way forward for the Liberal Democrats". Hughes and Laws especially clashed a lot during the debate. Allowing the two front runners to pull further and further ahead.

Laws struggled in the debate. Whilst he had polled well early on this seemed mostly due to strong name recognition. The more the Liberal faithful heard about Laws the less they seemed to like him. Law’s supposed closeness to the Conservatives gave the other candidates easy forms of attack and he failed to make an impact. "We're not the anti-war party, we're not the anti-Conservative party. We are the Liberal Democrats. We should be fighting for all Liberal ideas and with anyone who will help."

In the end Kennedy pulled back a very narrow campaign. The Lib Dems had decided who they were. A social-democratic anti-war party. Their campaign would be focused around opposition to the Iraq War and the political establishment in general. Kennedy then had to choose a running mate. Kennedy needed to pull the party together, someone who could appeal to the modernisers without being too divisive. Someone older and experienced, especially on foreign policy if the Lib Dems were to be a real party of Government. The five man shortlist consisted of the following names:

• Richmond Mayor Vince Cable
• Former Deputy PM Menzies Campbell
• West Midlands Senator Paul Keetch
• Senate Leader David Laws
• South East Senator Mark Oaten

Both Oaten and Laws were seen as too right-wing and not loyal enough to the Kennedy vision. Keetch was a provincial populist with a military background and strong knowledge of foreign policy. However he was openly anti-euro and Kennedy worried about the optics of the President and Vice-President on different sides of the Euro debate. Eventually the field was narrowed down to Cable and Campbell. Both were older men from the soft right of the party with governing experience. Cable was an economics expert whilst Campbell was a foreign policy guru. Eventually Kennedy settled on Campbell. Campbell was more known nationally and Kennedy needed foreign policy experience more than economics.

Kennedy unveils Campbell as his Running Mate at the Party's Conference in Birmingham

How far do you agree with the statement: "By choosing Charles Kennedy over Menzies Campbell or David Laws in 2003, the Liberal Democrats chose protest over power." (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

Some of UKIP's Parliamentary cohort.

“The Tory party is dying. For us to kill it we need to talk about the EU, immigration asylum, multiculturalism and the flat rate of income tax. We cannot be a Conservative side-project.” - Robert Kilroy Silk announces his bid for the presidency

UKIP had steadily grown over the course of the early days of the Commonwealth, cementing itself as the Commonwealth’s fourth party. Party elites knew a strong performance for the Presidency was needed to take the party forward. To this end party leaders such as Nigel Farage and David Bannerman quickly unified around South West Senator Roger Knapman. Knapman had served as a junior minister in the Major Governments, just what UKIP needed to bring legitimacy to their growing party. Knapman was from the traditional “bluekip” wing of the party, who believed in Libertarian economics and wanted to cooperate with the Conservatives where possible.

Senator Knapman announces his bid for the Presidency.

“You tried to ignore us, well now we have a voice at Westminster, you can’t ignore us anymore!” -UKIP Parliamentary Leader Nigel Farage’s speech at the opening of Parliament (2002)

The only major challenger to Knapman was TV personality and East Midlands Senator Robert Kilroy-Silk. Kilroy-Silk was a relative newcomer to the party only joining a few years prior. However his national profile was a great boost to the party. Kilroy-Silk became a leader of UKIP’s “redkip” faction which aimed to appeal to the “patriotic working class.” Kilroy-Silk challenged Knapman arguing UKIP should become a more economically populist party, and should challenge Labour and the Conservatives in equal measure.

Kilroy-Silk had very little support amongst the party faithful. Knapman ran a boring but effective campaign. This was unlike Kilroy-Silk whose campaign was increasingly detached and controversial. The UKIP debate wasn’t broadcast at primetime and would have gotten little attention if not for Kilroy-Silk’s strange racist ramble about Arabic people. Knapman commented on Kilroy-Silk’s candidacy in the debate, saying: “I want to take this party and this country forward, Senator you want to take yourself forward.”

The result was a landslide for Knapman and a humiliation for Kilroy-Silk. Knapman named UKIP’s parliamentary leader Nigel Farage as his running mate and Kilroy-Silk was promptly left in the dust. The next challenge for UKIP was getting the 26 MPs required for a Parliamentary bid. After a call around some old friends Knapman managed to convince two Conservative MPs, Stuart Wheeler and Malcolm Pearson (who was offered UKIP’s lead candidate spot in the 2005 election) to cross the floor giving UKIP the 26 MPs needed.

“This party is full of stars, whether in Parliament or regional Government they have been given a chance to shine. It’s time to show the British people we mean business.” - Roger Knapman’s victory speech at the party’s conference in Newport

Ever dramatic, Kilroy-Silk announces his new party Veritas, during his speaking slot at UKIP's conference.

At the same time Ken Livingstone decried the Labour Party and announced he would be creating an “anti-war coalition” to run for the Presidency. Livingstone managed to talk the Green Party, Respect, the SNP, Plaid and the Scottish Socialists into a rickety alliance.Livingstone promised an open primary allowing all parties to run candidates and all supporters to vote. The short-lived coalition managed to raise nearly £100,000 pounds, enough to pay the Presidential deposit and then some. However the coalition only had 20 MPs in Parliament, Livingstone swore he could get six left-wing Labour MPs to “broaden the debate.” However he failed to win any MPs over and the coalition quickly fell apart over ideological differences between the parties and distrust of Respect and the Scottish Socialists. Ken then denounced the Commonwealth’s political system and told his supporters to boycott the ballot as none of the main parties were truly anti-war.

“I said to Ken, look I’m ready to back you but I’m not going to risk it all for nothing, how many MPs do you have? Ken refused to answer. I knew then it was hopeless, I wouldn’t be surprised if I was the only one” - Lynne Jones in an interview with the New Statesman (2010)

Ken Livingstone on the phone to Labour MP Brian Sedgemore, who informed Ken he would not be nominating him.

The far-right also tried to gather its forces for a Presidential bid. Nick Griffin, having clung on in the North West Senate, raised a mere £38,000 and failed to gain the nomination of even the most unsavoury UKIP or Tory MP. There were no other notable presidential bids, only the Monster Raving Loony Party and a few independents who all failed to make the ballot.

Ken Livingstone had more impact on the 2004 Presidential Election than Roger Knapman, discuss (30 marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)

 

[powerab]

The South West was one of the most watched regions in the 99 election. A close three way race and strong performance by minor parties made the election particularly interesting with the highest vote gained by any candidate in the first round a mere 28%. The South West became a focal point for the balkanisation of Commonwealth politics.

Labour selected Bristol MP and Paymaster General Dawn Primarolo. Primarolo had gone from darling of the left and CND activist to loyal Blairite over the course of her career. Primarolo's main policy focus was poverty and she had been credited with lifting thousands out of poverty through the creation of the tax-credit system. Primarolo adopted Labour 1997 slogan, "Things can only get better"

The Liberal Democrats selected their chief whip, Paul Tyler. Tyler had been one of the Lib Dem's lead negotiators in the establishment of the Commonwealth gaining himself a profile in national politics. Tyler was considered the Lib Dems best hope at getting Premier are the party poured tens of thousands of pounds into his campaign. Tyler emphasised his anti-main party policies with the slogan "Change the balance of power"

The Conservatives selected Party Chair Micheal Ancram. Ancram tried to appeal to rural voters with his social conservatism and emphasised his euro-sceptic politics with the slogan. "South West voice for South West laws"

The results were a shock to many, the seat was considered early on to be a Liberal Democrat/Conservative marginal. Even when the first round results came in many expected Ancram votes to go flooding to Paul Tyler. Unfortunately for Tyler his strong pro-European politics was a deal breaker for many Ancram and Holmes voters and many chose to stay home or even vote for Primarolo.

I strongly believe that a euro-fanatic Lib Dem premier is just as bad for the South West as a Labour premier. I am aiming to win and I will make it to the second round. But if I don't I would rather not use my second preference than vote for Tyler. I'd imagine many of my voters are the same. - Micheal Ancram speaking on the BBC show "On the Record

 

[powerab]

Blair greets party faithful at a rally in York

“The Blair campaign was rotten from the start. A campaign of lies built on a Presidency of inequality, cutbacks, corruption and serial wars. Not even the best spin doctor could keep Tony his crown.” - Chris Nineham writing in the Guardian (2014)

The 2004 Presidential Election did not start well for Blair. Whilst polls back in 2003 had Blair with a clear lead of seven or eight polls ahead, a combination of the collapse of the coalition, unpopularity of the war and Livingstone’s challenge had drastically reduced Blair’s polling lead. Now he was within margin of error of Micheal Howard. Also worrying for the Blair campaign Kennedy’s personal approval ratings had shot up as the war continued. Some polls in 2004 had him as high as 29% of the vote, coming first in the first round.

Blair had gone from national hero to divisive figure over the course of his seven years at the top of British politics. Despite more and more public spats Blair remained on top of the Presidency and dominant over the Labour Party and he still had a relatively high approval rating.

However Blair had numerous problems. He was increasingly perceived as an authoritarian, having gone through one coalition partner his Government became increasingly insular and major figures in British politics found themselves sidelined. Including PM Gordon Brown and Senate Leader David Laws. Blair also found controlling his party’s left difficult. Ken Livingstone’s campaign had electrified the Labour left, many were defecting to the Lib Dems or refusing to vote all together.

During the course of the election Blair saw a re-branding from the liberal change candidate to a tough leader and safe pair of hands. He emphasised this in his slogan “Britain is Working.” His Campaign Headquarters were in Sunderland.

Blair officially launches his campaign at a press conference in Reading

“The Blair campaign preferred to avoid big picture policy questions such as Iraq, the Euro and the future of the Commonwealth. Instead the campaign focused on “bread and butter issues” such as the economy and generous increases in benefits and pensions.” - Transforming President Blair, Margaret Scammell (2007)

Howard’s approval had greatly improved over the course of late 2003 and early 2004.After a successful primary campaign the Conservatives united and he quickly hit his stride. However he was still dogged by the “nasty Conservative” image and focus groups reported many voters found Howard unsettling.

Howard also aimed to appeal to Liberal Democrat voters by taking a hands-off libertarian approach to the Presidency. Promising to work with the Prime Minister as an equal and denouncing the Blair presidency for abuses of power.

Howard tried to overcome his harsh image by appearing in casual clothes and conducting interviews in his Folkestone home

Howard ran a populist campaign. Howard knew that the fast social change the Commonwealth had experienced, alongside the unpopularity of the Euro could be a winning combination for him. As such Howard heavily targeted working class communities in Wales and the North of England. Emphasising he would be a President for the “left behind” rather than Blair’s perceived London-centric politics. Howard’s main policy platform was railing against the Euro. Howard argued Blair had become too subservient to Brussels and Washington. Howard claimed he would reassert Britain’s leadership in Iraq and have a tougher line on Europe and the Euro. This was summarised in his campaign slogan: “Putting Britain First.” His campaign headquarters were in Bexley, South-East London.

“My task is to show the British people that there is a better way. A better way that gives them back control. A better way that makes it easier for them to fulfil their potential. A way that will put Britain First” - Micheal Howard’s campaign speech in Manchester (2004)

Unlike the Hague Campaign the Howard Campaign made frequent use of marches and rallies. Photo taken at the "March for Britain" in Cambridge

Charles Kennedy had many advantages beginning the Presidential election. The Liberal Democrats were a truly national force. Polls showed a close three way race for the first round. Enticingly, polls showed if Kennedy made it into the final round he would win handily against both Howard and Blair. Kennedy was also the only anti-war candidate on the ballot and was able to outflank Blair to the left on issues such as the environment and income tax.

Charles Kennedy had come onto the national stage as damaged goods. The Liberal Democrat primary had been more divisive than many had expected and many Liberal Democrat elites were openly unhappy with Kennedy’s nomination. Kennedy tried to capture some of Ken Livingstone’s magic by making his party the party of the anti-war movement. However many hardcore anti-war activists distrusted his credentials as the main who had served as Blair’s Chancellor mere months before the invasion began. Most dangerously, rumours began to swirl about Kennedy’s personal life, specifically a drinking problem.

Kennedy’s campaign had two major prongs. The first was personal, the straight talking Kennedy up against the tyrant Blair and ghoulish Howard. Kennedy presented himself as taking division and ego out of politics. Secondly was policy, Kennedy emphasised his progressive economic policies and humanitarian attitude towards foreign policy, summarised with the slogan: “Freedom, Fairness, Trust.” His campaign headquarters were in Aberdeen.

Kennedy meeting a voter in Belfast. Kennedy made a point of walking around openly in every major city in the Commonwealth.

The only candidate with no chance of winning was Roger Knapman. Knapman saw it as his responsibility to “take the heat off Howard.” His campaign was very similar to Howard, just more radical. Whilst Howard argued to reject the Euro and to devolve power from Brussels, Knapman campaigned on the break up of the European Union as an entity. Knapman also took the more socially Conservative policies Howard didn’t want to touch, such as rolling back legislation liberalising LGBT rights. Most controversially Knapman was the only candidate to oppose the Commonwealth. Knapman stated if he won the Presidency he would immediately call for her majesty to take back the throne of Britain. But the majority of his campaign was old-fashioned euro-scepticism, with the slogan “Say No to European Union.”

“When people ask me what this campaign is about, I say its about getting back what we’ve lost. Not just our Queen and our Parliament, but our sovereignty, our freedom and pride in our country, that's what Blair has taken away.” - Roger Knapman in his party political broadcast “What we Lost” (2004)

How far do you agree with the statement "The 2004 Presidential Election was Blair's to lose" (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)