The Battle of Italy ended in a stalemate, a tactical victory for the Germans but a strategic victory for the Allies. The Italian Campaign, however, had only just begun.
I second that.With most of italian industries (from what you posit Milano, Torino and Genova are in german hands) gone, Italy is to all practical purposes crushed and out of the war so this counts a strategic victory for the Germans. In this situation, I consider doubtful that the french would keep fighting.
To attain the final result you state, you have to stop the germans no further than the Adige.
snip
Two days later his Panzers were rolling through the streets of Venice
How is this a strategic victory for the Allies? Germany has essentially destroyed Italy's warmaking potential by seizing the industrialised north. The Italian/French remnants combined with British troops may be able to pin down German troops by maintaining a presence in Italy, but that's about it right now.
Well, Germany has failed to win. They're in a superior position, but they haven't won. IOTL the Allies got kicked out of the continent but not ITTL, which counts as a strategic victory to me.
Well, Germany has failed to win. They're in a superior position, but they haven't won. IOTL the Allies got kicked out of the continent but not ITTL, which counts as a strategic victory to me.
I don't think that's physically possible.
That is not how you define a strategic victory.The allies got their arses kicked in this scenario.Italy lost most of it's industrial capacity and a large part of it's population centers.In this case,the strategic balance actually changed in favour of Germany because it now gained a large part of Italy's population centers and industry.
I agree in that the Allied position is far better compared to OTL, the problem is the Allies don't know that. It's a little bit similar to A Blunted Sickle and The Whale Has Wings; we know that the Allies are doing much better and are much closer to victory, but within the timeline it looks like an unmitigated disaster.
The Stresa Revived allied leadership isn't comparing their situation to a hypothetical one where the Mediterranean is closed and Britain is stretched navally over two fronts. They're comparing it to when Italy held strong alpine passes against Germany, and Italian manufacturing could contribute to the war effort. They've lost both in this most recent campaign. Most people in ATL would consider this a strategic and tactical defeat for the Allies, it's just not the unmitigated disaster that evicting them from the continent would be.
The Battle of Italy ended in a stalemate, and it wasn't a total German victory since it had failed to achieve its goal of controlling the continent. The Italian Campaign, however, had only just begun.
Oops, forgot about them canals there.