Jesus, folks, I don’t go into chat because it’s irritating as hell over there.

Can we perhaps not replicate chat’s whining tone here, about a fictional political alignment?
 
I already baked that prediction in - third parties screwing over Democrats is a hallmark of the Cincoverse. But don't worry, Canada is the model, so we'll finally get a third party on the right to offset the numerous ones on the left in *checks notes* the late 1980s.
So, checks notes on OTL, this group will screw the Liberals for exact two elections, whereupon it will functionally take over the Liberals and lead to a single party on the political right again, which a few elections later will rename itself to the Liberals restoring the balance. :)
 
I already baked that prediction in - third parties screwing over Democrats is a hallmark of the Cincoverse. But don't worry, Canada is the model, so we'll finally get a third party on the right to offset the numerous ones on the left in *checks notes* the late 1980s.
So, checks notes on OTL, this group will screw the Liberals for exact two elections, whereupon it will functionally take over the Liberals and lead to a single party on the political right again, which a few elections later will rename itself to the Liberals restoring the balance. :)
I can’t help but imagine what a far-right party ITTL US would look like:
“We’re gonna build a wall, and we’re gonna make Dixie pay for it!” 🤣
 
El Jefe de Jefes: Luis Napoleon Morones' Mexico
"...historiography portrays the Reyes years as the stable interregnum between the Maderato and war years, and the revolving door of Prime Ministers before the epochal elections of 1928, despite the long-simmering Zapatista insurgency, the crisis of the Imperial Regency, and the economic malaise that plagued the country for most of his time in power and heightened social and class tensions already sharpened by Mexican exhaustion coming out of the Great American War. Reyismo's portrayal by present-day scholarship is in part of a broader, more pernicious trend, which traffics in a stereotype of Mexican voters as apathetic and tacitly open to semi-autocratic political parties such as Reyes' Convergencia or, later, the long-ruling and paternalist POM of Morones or the gruff conservatism of the Partido Popular that ruled the country in the first decade of the 20th century, a stereotype that accuses the excesses of political machines as meeting the approval of Mexican citizens unattached to democracy provided that they are not inconvenienced - the "soft autocracy" of establishment politics.

This insidious scholarly trend both inside of Mexico and outside of it miss the fact that 20th century Mexican politics has been defined by placidity borne of dull establishmentarian consensus, [1] but also miss out on some of the more fascinating stories within such political parties, and at the height of Reyes' political powers he had a remarkably credible rival in Pedro Lascurain - a rivalry that most history of the period has, incredibly, somehow missed. Lascurain had served in the previous cabinets, cabinets Reyes had denounced as having utterly failed Mexico, and in the crucial position of Foreign Minister, where he was, curiously then, retained by Reyes. This was for a number of reasons - Lascurain was a diplomat first and a politician second (part of the reason why he was a disastrous and short-lived Prime Minister after Reyes' death), and he was, quite genuinely, good in that role. He had worked well with his Bloc Sud counterparts during the war, and then managed to single-handedly negotiate the ceasefire and peace agreement with the United States behind the cabinet's back and lead Mexico out of the unpopular conflict, all without damaging his own personal standing.

Reyes did not like Lascurain but also did not consider him a domestic political threat. He mocked him as a "scholar" (in contrast to a number of ex-military men in the Cabinet, whom he approvingly cited as "soldiers"), and openly questioned Lascurain's awareness of economic or social issues in Mexico, implying that his Foreign Minister was elitist and disconnected from the concerns of Convergencia's political base. But Lascurain was enormously valuable on foreign concerns, where Reyes felt uncomfortable, and the 1910s was a time across the world where in Parliamentary systems, Prime Ministers were formally a first among equals, and head diplomats had a wide ability to do as they pleased and in some cases shape foreign policy decisions entirely on their own.

Lascurain was one such man, and his impact was deep and wide; indeed, Mexican foreign policy to this day retains many of his fingerprints. Lascurain was among the first men to admit that the war had been a grievous error (despite supporting it in 1913 and his reputation at that time as a dove) and thus, perhaps as a form of penance for the nearly two hundred thousand dead Mexicans his vote had condemned, threw himself most aggressively into the twin-pronged project of rebuilding Mexico's ties with her Hemispheric neighbors as well as reestablishing strong commitments in Europe.

The autumn of 1917 and early 1918 saw his "grand tour," in which Lascurain departed to Europe, the United States, and Venezuela for six months, hobnobbing with foreign dignitaries and diplomats. Lascurain was, unlike many Mexican nobles of the day, not educated in Europe or elite American universities such as Harvard or Yale, but his English and French were both excellent, and his ultra-aristocratic background and deep Catholic faith impressed many of his counterparts, who had for years privately dismissed Mexico as a browner, poorer version of the reactionary Habsburg Empire in terms of economic and social development. Lascurain maintained a strong understanding of the dynamics of European politics (indeed, he correctly and ominously predicted to German diplomats that the internal tensions erupting in Hungary in 1917 would "within two years have pulled much of Central Europe into general war") and was personally charming; the grand tour's European leg was, undoubtedly, a huge success, particularly as Emperor Ferdinand II of Austria-Hungary spoke fondly late into the night with Lascurain about his many times spent visiting his ailing uncle in Mexico and his sadness that now, as Emperor, it would be profoundly difficult for him to go on such a visit again, unaware that within a few short years he would be living out his days there.

The grand tour in Europe ended with European businesses largely committed to returning to Mexico two years after its withdrawal from the war and as its economic instability started to quiet down, at least a little; Lascurain was quick to allay concerns that any return of revolutionary Maderismo was in the offing, and despite his personal distaste for Reyes, promoted the new man in Mexico City as a talented general and statesman who had agreed to take the reins of state rather than retire on behalf of his people, and not as just some two-bit Latin caudillo, which was most certainly the impression the vast majority of European diplomacy had drawn of him. Much of Mexico's recovery in prestige internationally can be tied to Lascurain's dogged efforts over those six months and the years to come, and by late 1918, a great amount of money, particularly British money, was flowing back in to Mexico to counter American influence in investments, only for that money to be rudely interrupted by the Central European War's outbreak.

Lascurain's stopover in Philadelphia on the way home in early 1918 was much less successful, though it set the stage for a rapprochement once former Secretary of State Lindley Garrison was back as chief diplomat in January 1921. The American President Root - his counterpart at Coronado - was amiable enough and discussed over cigars with Lascurain his deeply-held desire to resurrect the Pan-American Congress, lamenting that the Great American War in part failed due to the failure of that initiative dating back to the 1880s; 1918 was the wrong moment for such a resurrection, however, with feelings still too raw on all sides, and Lascurain pointing out to Root that it had failed because it had been seen by the powers that would become the Bloc Sud as a vehicle for American hegemony, not a forum for equality and cooperation, and that after the slanted treaties of Lima, Coronado, and particularly Mount Vernon, this impression had only been strengthened. [2]

Nonetheless, Lascurain did leave Philadelphia convinced that the United States bore no animus any longer towards Mexico what with its hands full in managing a full-blown insurgency on Confederate soil, and left equally convinced that provided that a reformed Guatemalan state was amicable towards the interests of the Boston Fruit Company, that Root or any successor was open to Mexican domination of Central America north of Nicaragua provided that Philadelphia could "wet her beak." This was a misunderstanding of the American position, to be sure, but one that committed Reyes to pushing even harder after Zapata into the jungles of the Isthmus and seeking to renew the domination of Mexico over land regarded as her proper sphere of influence since early in Maximilian's reign..."

El Jefe de Jefes: Luis Napoleon Morones' Mexico

[1] If all these descriptions of 20th century Mexico are starting to remind you of places like Japan or, to a lesser extent, Malaysia, well, that's by design. More LDP, less PRI/KMT
[2] I may do a separate update on this, because it's important to the long-term trajectory on Western Hemisphere diplomacy
 
I mean the western states would to attract white protestant or even catholics to keep a majority.
Oh, that they'll definitely do!
Thanks!

And it seems that both sides will push for it. Argentina cause it stands on a pretty good position if they can expect US backing, and Brazil cause they seem to be going full crazy, lol. Their situation is not great, since they will probably have no help from outside while Argentina will at the very least receive heavy US support, if not outright entry into the war.

It's worth considering that inside the debate Uruguayan nationalism has some factors against it, in comparison to Trans-Platininism/Pan-Platinism/I have-no-idea-how-it should-be-called.

Firstly, there's an argument to be made that Uruguayan Nationalism was already tried and failed. The idea that Uruguay could be a truly independent state that balances it's relations with both Brazil and Argentina died with the Brazilian occupation. Of course, jumping to annexation into Argentina from there misses several steps, but this would at least leave us in a nominally independent Uruguay with very heavy ties to Argentina and a very big fear of Brazil. Having two countries with very tight ties and cultural affinity, it would be only natural to ask "Why not just go all the way?".

Secondly, giving that Argentina will likely be hosting the exiles and funding the resistance movements, they'll have a lot of influence on the way the movement goes. It's not hard to imagine Buenos Aires having a preference for those who argue for their preferred point of view, and in this case that translates into more funding and therefore more reach.
I could even see a lot of Argentinean influence short of outright annexation, where essentially Argentina has an informal veto over Uruguayan Presidents or even military bases on Uruguayan soil. Perhaps that's even why an annexation referendum would fail; Uruguayan bitterness at Buenos Aires and at Rio!
I do wonder with the growth of Brazilian Integralism, could we see a Brazil with negros and prados closer to economic equality in Brazil.
And then there will be the *wonderful* reaction of the Papacy to the rise of Integralism.
Does the Papacy really have a side they support in the CEW? On the one hand, France, Austria and Italy are run by Catholics, and Germany by a protestant, but OTOH, Germany has a lot of Bavarian Catholics and Austria-Hungary has a lot of non-catholics.
The Papacy's chief concern is that - though it is currently back in Rome (thanks to British negotiations), it is going to have a deeply contensious relationship with "Liberal Italy" (to use the Church's favorite slur against the Italian government at the time in OTL). On one hand, it is going to be incredibly concerned about Italian soldiers marching into the Vatican and putting the Pope under arrest (leaving aside whether Italy would actually DO this - the Vatican will be convinced that they would). On the other hand, they HATE the Italian government with a white-hot passion and would like nothing more than to get some territorial status back to secure their own position.

So, under normal circumstances, the Papacy would be strongly on the side of France and Austria, without question. However, their fear of Italy's ability to occupy the Vatican is going to keep them on edge and likely prevent them from coming out strongly on the side of the Bonaparts and Habsburgs.

I see them instead trying to offer themselves us as third-party neutral arbitrators to bring an end to the conflict - this improves their diplomatic standing around the world and would give them a role in the eventual peace treaty. Should Germany and Italy win, maybe the Pope's role in the peace might be enough for them to secure official independence and concessions. If France or Austria win ... same thing.
Dan's read is the correct one.
Philly gets the capital and Pittsburgh gets to be a big university hub— this TL might be a low-key Pennsylvania wank, ngl, and I am here for it.
It's definitely a Pennsylvania-wank in some respects, and a Midwest-wank more generally. California's economy ITTL probably looks more like Texas' and Florida's as the West Coast serves the same purpose economically that the South has IOTL for economic expansion in the latter 20th century.
Hell even I can get behind a Liberal who's main thrust domestically is massive public works/infrastructure while working in tandem with Dems on low-hanging fruit both parties can get behind.

Plus, it seems at his age he'll be pretty clearly one term and done, a trend in the Cincoverse that isn't as prevalent OTL.
Well and correctly deduced.
Were Buddhism and Hinduism radicalized like Christianity?
How do you mean?
So, checks notes on OTL, this group will screw the Liberals for exact two elections, whereupon it will functionally take over the Liberals and lead to a single party on the political right again, which a few elections later will rename itself to the Liberals restoring the balance. :)
Canada is the general inspiration, but it's not a like analogue; and this right-wing party will emerge from different impulses than the hardcore regionalism that drove Preston Manning into making Reform (and Manning and Reform are a thing ITTL, anyways)
I can’t help but imagine what a far-right party ITTL US would look like:
“We’re gonna build a wall, and we’re gonna make Dixie pay for it!” 🤣
Hostility to immigration is one thing, as is social conservatism, since the Liberals and Democrats don't really split on social/cultural issues as much as class/economic/regional/aesthetic issues and the socially "live and let live" factions are dominant (or at least ascendant) in both by the time right-wing populism rears its head.
 
a huge success, particularly as Emperor Ferdinand II of Austria-Hungary spoke fondly late into the night with Lascurain about his many times spent visiting his ailing uncle in Mexico and his sadness that now, as Emperor, it would be profoundly difficult for him to go on such a visit again, unaware that within a few short years he would be living out his days there.
Damn
Spoiler alert.
Emperor of Austria flees into exile in Mexico.

Holy crap!
To see how this turns out,
 
Well and correctly deduced.
That 1932 election will be so low energy haha. On the one hand, you have Pershing, War Hero, who's running a personalist and fairly substance-free, forward-thinking campaign. He'll be the heavy favorite after 12 years of Democrats in the Not White House so it is a smart strategy for him and his team to not get bogged down in policy specifics and just campaign on the fact that he's John F'ing Pershing, beloved general.

I'm not sure if Pershing will explicitly say he's a one-term guy - seems like a bad idea to assign yourself lame duck status right away - but if even if he doesn't come out and say he's one-and-done it will be at the least pretty implied. So every Dem worth a damn will look at 1932, realize the Pershing juggernaut is a one election phenomenon, and sit out and wait til 1936, when it will most likely be a lot easier to run against Pershing's successor is as opposed to the general himself.

So, on the one side you have a septuagenarian Pershing going out and campaigning on very little specifics, and on the other hand you have a third-string (at best) Democrat who's biggest concern on the campaign trail is making sure the party doesn't get wiped out downballot. Sure, the Dem will campaign on boilerplate issues and vice versa, and the partisan press will bleat and wail, but everyone involved knows Pershing is marching to the Presidency so why bother getting all worked up in a lather about it? 1936 is the real fight here.
 
I could even see a lot of Argentinean influence short of outright annexation, where essentially Argentina has an informal veto over Uruguayan Presidents or even military bases on Uruguayan soil. Perhaps that's even why an annexation referendum would fail; Uruguayan bitterness at Buenos Aires and at Rio!
At the same time that argument could be flipped to work for annexation: “if they are gonna dictate our policy, we should be able to at least vote in their elections” or something like that.

That scenario also assumes that Argentina would wait for the situation to turn bitter instead of scheduling the referendum right after the Brazilians are kicked out, which would be the logical thing.

I do think that the debate between Uruguayan exiles and resistance would be very much a tossup between the two, and I’m sure there will also be some socialists or other kinds of revolutionaries thrown into the mix, but with Argentina calling the shots, it’d be an uphill battle for the rest.
 
You know, the thought has struck me: With Canada getting less migrations as OTL, as well as the different state of affairs in Europe and further afield, mixed with far more stable governments in Mexico and Argentina ... I suspect we're seeing more immigration to Latin American states than in OTL. Any ideas of what the numbers are and what that immigration experience is like?
Interestingly, I recently learned from a fellow PhD student (because it's what she was studying!) there was considerable Scottish immigration to Chile during this time as they came as engineers to work in the mining industry. Obviously, I suspect that that won't be occuring here thanks to Peru's lackluster performance in the war, harsh treaty and political instability.
 
What I mean was there Buddhism and Hinduism radicalized in changing circumstances? For example in Canon Nichiren Buddhism and zen was collaborator with Japanese far right while Burmese and Korean Buddhist monks supported freedom struggle actively. Ramakrisha mission gave refuge to various Indian revolutionaries. So I was wondering does Hinduism and Buddhism evolved to incorporate aspects particularly after failled rebellion in india?
 
I think Sequoya will be a country dominated by agriculture , leisure and petroleum based businesses that are owned by the various tribes. Some of the tribes will use the money to build infrastructure, health care and education for their members, others may be dominated by a class of senior leaders. Much of the working class will be 'guest workers' from across North America and abroad who may be paid well but are restricted to certain parts of cities and the countries and watched by the local police. It would be a combination of Dubai and Las Vegas.
 
I wonder if some degree of women's enfranchisement could occur during Chamberlains prime ministership from 1917-1923/4?
 
I can’t help but imagine what a far-right party ITTL US would look like:
“We’re gonna build a wall, and we’re gonna make Dixie pay for it!” 🤣
"Note, said wall would run from the Atlantic to the US/CS/Sequoyah tripoint rather than from Ocean to Ocean, and they'd propose putting Alligators in the Ohio, not appreciating that they wouldn't be able to sustain themselves and they'd have to buy more of them... from the CSA.
 
a huge success, particularly as Emperor Ferdinand II of Austria-Hungary spoke fondly late into the night with Lascurain about his many times spent visiting his ailing uncle in Mexico and his sadness that now, as Emperor, it would be profoundly difficult for him to go on such a visit again, unaware that within a few short years he would be living out his days there.

59bqhi.jpg
 
the long-ruling and paternalist POM of Morones or the gruff conservatism of the Partido Popular that ruled the country in the first decade of the 20th century, a stereotype that accuses the excesses of political machines as meeting the approval of Mexican citizens unattached to democracy provided that they are not inconvenienced - the "soft autocracy" of establishment politics.
Morones is going to be the Mexican Joseph Chamberlain from the looks of it
in Pedro Lascurain - a rivalry that most history of the period has, incredibly, somehow missed. Lascurain had served in the previous cabinets, cabinets Reyes had denounced as having utterly failed Mexico, and in the crucial position of Foreign Minister, where he was, curiously then, retained by Reyes. This was for a number of reasons - Lascurain was a diplomat first and a politician second (part of the reason why he was a disastrous and short-lived Prime Minister after Reyes' death), and he was, quite genuinely, good in that role. He had worked well with his Bloc Sud counterparts during the war, and then managed to single-handedly negotiate the ceasefire and peace agreement with the United States behind the cabinet's back and lead Mexico out of the unpopular conflict, all without damaging his own personal standing.
A top diplomat who becomes the leader turn's out to be a disaster? Where did I seen this before?
Nonetheless, Lascurain did leave Philadelphia convinced that the United States bore no animus any longer towards Mexico what with its hands full in managing a full-blown insurgency on Confederate soil, and left equally convinced that provided that a reformed Guatemalan state was amicable towards the interests of the Boston Fruit Company, that Root or any successor was open to Mexican domination of Central America north of Nicaragua provided that Philadelphia could "wet her beak." This was a misunderstanding of the American position, to be sure, but one that committed Reyes to pushing even harder after Zapata into the jungles of the Isthmus and seeking to renew the domination of Mexico over land regarded as her proper sphere of influence since early in Maximilian's reign..."
An update on the status of the remnants of Centro would be nice
 
I wonder if some degree of women's enfranchisement could occur during Chamberlains prime ministership from 1917-1923/4?
I mean his father brought universal suffrage for men so it would be fitting he does the same for women.

"Addressing the Fast Worcestershire Women's Unionist Association yesterday, Mr. Austen Chamberlain said he was not in favour of women’s suffrage, and did not believe the great mass of women ..."
Guernsey Evening Press and Star- 12 June 1908

ITTL though I can see Austin supporting limited suffrage for women to appease the left and it's already established that he doesn't have the conviction as his father so I can him being swayed.

In general, I don't think it's the highest priority at the moment considering Ireland and India and the author foreshadowed the conservative, reactionary politics of 1920s Britain under Jix and I would bet that universal women suffrage would not be implemented until the 1930s
 
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I think Sequoya will be a country dominated by agriculture , leisure and petroleum based businesses that are owned by the various tribes. Some of the tribes will use the money to build infrastructure, health care and education for their members, others may be dominated by a class of senior leaders. Much of the working class will be 'guest workers' from across North America and abroad who may be paid well but are restricted to certain parts of cities and the countries and watched by the local police. It would be a combination of Dubai and Las Vegas.
Its government would be a mixture of Lebanon and Switzerland OTL
 
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