I would think in the next 5-10 many civic and religious groups in the United States would help freed negroes find work and set up lives across the country.
"The Army was not the only group that got a vote on such matters, though, and the Navy - represented at Mount Vernon by Admirals Knight, Sims, and the hero of Hilton Head, Belknap - wanted to see to it that the Congress led to benefits for them beyond merely limiting the Confederacy to a cutter service. Knight and Sims, both close personally to Lodge, presented another plan that essentially solidified facts on the ground: the acquisition of the Florida Keys by the United States. The initial proposal presented by Sims in fact was more modest than what Lodge eventually got into the final agreement, proposing only to seize the Keys from Duck Key and west, roughly the lower half of the island chain. There were a number of problems with this, however, including concerns from Belknap about provisioning such a territory, and Lodge was unsure why to "settle for a half measure" when the whole chain could simply be snapped up. Accordingly, the "Gibraltar of the Caribbean" at Key West was not only attached to the treaty, but the entire archipleago starting at Elliott Key at the south end of Biscayne Bay was attached, and the United States would "enjoy unfettered and unmolested road and rail access to the mainland from the Keys" in perpetuity. The Florida Keys Territory was, officially, an insular territory of the United States along with the Virgin Islands, Samoa, the Wake and Midway Atolls, and the Port Hamilton and Chusan Islands territories in East Asia..."
"During the course of the war, it is thought that somewhere in the proximity of four hundred thousand Negroes died of starvation or other war-related mortalities, while close to a million more fled north by late 1916 as order collapsed or the Yankee armies approached. As many as a quarter million such souls made it over the Ohio River either through evading river patrols, bribing military officers, or through petition; hundreds of thousands of others turned around and joined the fight, while their comrades remained largely camped in Kentucky, particularly a belt running approximately from Paducah in the west to Louisville within seventy kilometers of the river. As tens of thousands of white Kentuckians fled east and south from the fighting, this had had the impact of almost overnight changing the demographics across much of the Bluegrass state, and in the months between November 11th and the Mount Vernon Congress, thousands more Negro refugees, often runaway slaves or those freed by advancing Yankees, streamed into Kentucky by the day, hoping to either escape across the river into the United States, or at least concentrate themselves in what was rapidly emerging as a promised land for the freedman."
I think we were always using 1/3 of the Confederacy was Black, maybe that was just slaves. But 9.5/25.25(picking a quarter for change) =37%. The only war I can think of where that many people in an area wanted to cross the prewar line would have *maybe* been the Indo-Pakistani war of 1947-1948. Beyond *that*? And that would be adding roughly 10% to the Population of the United States, probably focused into the states that border the Confederacy.These numbers seem familiar…
I hate John Hay, don't get me wrong, but let's point always and forever that the single biggest reason the Four Horsemen visited these fair shores is because the Confederacy invited them in.[2] This is years ago in both the TL and the lives of all of us readers, but the first Panamerican Congress had a failed clause pushed by Blaine to forbid wars of territorial conquest in the Americas, so Root is very directly operating contrary to how Blaine and Hay had hoped the Americas would govern themselves. As @Curtain Jerker has pointed out more than once, the GAW can very much be considered the endpoint of the failure of Hay's pretty naive vision of a semi-collaborative American system of international relations that nonetheless has the USA as the sun the other planets orbit.
Whoa, @Curtain Jerker is defending Liberals for a change. Gotta say, it’s nice to see some character growth in my favorite commenter here. Who knows, @KingSweden24 might even get you to root for a Liberal.I hate John Hay, don't get me wrong, but let's point always and forever that the single biggest reason the Four Horsemen visited these fair shores is because the Confederacy invited them in.
Not that you are saying otherwise, but I don't want any Southern revisionist historian to blame a guy who's been in the ground for 15 years before the guns started firing.
And yes, this is me defending the most influential Liberal between Blaine and Hughes. But fair is fair after all.
You flatter me!Gotta say, it’s nice to see some character growth in my favorite commenter here.
Extrapolated forward from the 1910 figures but, yes, your numbers were pretty closeThese numbers seem familiar…
Definitely. That’s in part what ONE is all about.I would think in the next 5-10 many civic and religious groups in the United States would help freed negroes find work and set up lives across the country.
I’m sure the US would see to it that they have no risks to their control of their islands. However thar shakes out.Great as always! I have a couple questions on the Florida cession.
First, is the US annexing just the major keys, or the smaller ones to the north of the main chain? I think they're mostly uninhabited, but depending on how hard the US navy want's to lock down the strait they could be useful.
Second, where does this leave Blackwater Sound? If the US controls Cross and Bottle Key (and potentially Shell Key) this effectively makes the sound US territorial waters. If one or more of those keys remains in the CSA it makes it a very complicated waterway.
So these demographic changes raise the possibility of Kentucky not just being spit between the USA and CSA but also between 'white" and 'black' halves. Could we see three way division, with Western Kentucky forming a black state or free commonwealth, central Kentucky forming a white state or client, and eastern Kentucky remaining Confederate?
That would leave western Kentucky in much better shape since they would not only have Louisville but but the western coalfields, some of the states best farmland, and several rivers with good potential for hydroelectric plants. Plus Mammoth Cave with the potential for a tourist industry. Central Kentucky in comparison has decent farmland but few natural resources, and apart from the horse industry (which was mostly a post civil war thing otl so may not have taken off here) few economic options. Could be interesting!
Also, a highly specific Kentuckian question, do we think Louisville retains it's (correct ) local pronunciations of "luhvul/loovul" or develops a more deep southern pronunciation of "looeevil" from refugees further south? Could lead to a Derry vs. Londonderry situation.
How to handle the Great Migration-as-postwar-refugee-crisis has been on my radar as a major writing/demographic math problem for a long time hahaI think we were always using 1/3 of the Confederacy was Black, maybe that was just slaves. But 9.5/25.25(picking a quarter for change) =37%. The only war I can think of where that many people in an area wanted to cross the prewar line would have *maybe* been the Indo-Pakistani war of 1947-1948. Beyond *that*? And that would be adding roughly 10% to the Population of the United States, probably focused into the states that border the Confederacy.
Not sure what the population of Arizona was pre-war,, but I'm not honestly sure that formerly confederate Arizona could support 9.5 M people with that technology (I'm not sure that that much water can be taken from the Rio Grande and the Colorado that quickly and distributed.
OTL USA in 1910 had 92M. Assuming that the combined population of the USA and CSA is *about* that, that means roughly 67M in the US . The 9.5 M blacks, if they all moved to the United States would be about the same as the Population of the largest USA state: New York. So if they all moved into Kentucky and the US allowed for Kentucky to join the Union, you'd have a single almost entirely black state as the largest in the US. (It would be one way to prevent the need to get rid of the Electoral College. ) (mild OTL politics) This makes the OTL concerns about Hawaii statehood and possible Puerto Rican Statehood look like a walk in the park. This is closer to trying to get every Mexican State north of the State of Mexico admitted into the US at the same time at some point in the last 50 years.
To the Author, just curious, at what point in writing this timeline did the issue of what to do with the absolute *FLOOD* of former slaves caused by the later defeat but not absorption of the Confederacy become a significant issue.?
Oh, totally. More me pointing to the irony of Root - Hay’s protege - rejecting the vision of Blainism in practiceI hate John Hay, don't get me wrong, but let's point always and forever that the single biggest reason the Four Horsemen visited these fair shores is because the Confederacy invited them in.
Not that you are saying otherwise, but I don't want any Southern revisionist historian to blame a guy who's been in the ground for 15 years before the guns started firing.
And yes, this is me defending the most influential Liberal between Blaine and Hughes. But fair is fair after all.
I notice you didn't disagree with my numbers here...Extrapolated forward from the 1910 figures but, yes, your numbers were pretty close
Definitely. That’s in part what ONE is all about.
That said, not everybody in the US feels that way, to put it mildly.
I’m sure the US would see to it that they have no risks to their control of their islands. However thar shakes out.
I’ll take your word for it that indeed the West of Kentucky is the part worth having - and so much flow northwards from the Deep South probably indeed causes a “ok I know where you’re really from” situation in the city haha
How to handle the Great Migration-as-postwar-refugee-crisis has been on my radar as a major writing/demographic math problem for a long time haha
Oh, totally. More me pointing to the irony of Root - Hay’s protege - rejecting the vision of Blainism in practice
Divide between all three....?So, join the US, join Mexico, join Texas, stay with the Confederacy, go independent...
I'm *guessing* joining Texas would win???
Mexico gets the Gadsden Purchase back, Texas gets back the portion of Southern New Mexico that they claimed in 1845 (which is all East of the Rio Grand) and the US gets Arizona between the Gadsden and the 34th Parallel plus some of the portion of OTL SW New Mexico.Divide between all three....?
Mexico gets the Gadsden Purchase back, Texas gets back the portion of Southern New Mexico that they claimed in 1845 (which is all East of the Rio Grand) and the US gets Arizona between the Gadsden and the 34th Parallel plus some of the portion of OTL SW New Mexico.
Which makes me wonder - was Phoenix founded ITTL, and is its location in New Mexico or Arizona? I wonder if the situation that allowed it to balloon to its absurd OTL size would exist, and if doesn't, that could potentially affect water availability in the West overall. In any case I could see Tucson (which is in the Gadsden Purchase area) and Las Cruces (which is right on the Rio Grande, called the Rio Bravo in CdM) as potential capitals for Arizona if Phoenix can't be it for whatever reason.Mexico gets the Gadsden Purchase back, Texas gets back the portion of Southern New Mexico that they claimed in 1845 (which is all East of the Rio Grand) and the US gets Arizona between the Gadsden and the 34th Parallel plus some of the portion of OTL SW New Mexico.
Note, just like the Author's story with the US taking back all of Confederate Arizona, this leads to the US/Texas/Mexico Tripoint being at El Paso.
(Note, not sure if this belongs in this thread or the other, if it belongs in the other, I will delete and recreate)
I was wondering how significant El Paso is relative to OTL North American Tripoints.
iOTL, there are only *two* tripoints in North America. 1) The Guatemala/Honduras/El Salvador which is mostly surrounded by National/Biological Parks, with the Tripoint apparently only accessibly by Hiking (nearest road is almost 5 miles away as the crow flies) and 2) The Mexico/Belize/Guatemala tripoint which is in many ways even more remote.
By 2023 iTTL, from what we know, there will be the following tripoints north of Mexico City (we haven't gotten much clue what happens to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador)
US/Canada/Quebec tripoint. Major population center is Cornwall Ontario, neither PQ or NY have significant cities near there.
US/Quebec/AU tripoint (Current Maine/Quebec/New Brunswick tripoint). Middle of nowhere (mostly logging)
(possible US/KY/CS tripoints, still to be determined)
US/Sequoya/CS tripoint, (Current OK/MO/AR tripoint). Not isolated, just not much there.
US/Sequoya/Texas tripoint. I believe that the border is simply Texas taking north of where the state of Texas has iOTL. Again, not isolated, not much there.
US/Texas/Mexico tripoint. See above, El Paso Metro. Might be more populated in the US part of the tripoint compared to the New Mexico but I simply can't see it being significantly smaller than OTL, and the idea of it being larger is definitely in the cards.
Yea, Phoenix is there.Which makes me wonder - was Phoenix founded ITTL, and is its location in New Mexico or Arizona? I wonder if the situation that allowed it to balloon to its absurd OTL size would exist, and if doesn't, that could potentially affect water availability in the West overall. In any case I could see Tucson (which is in the Gadsden Purchase area) and Las Cruces (which is right on the Rio Grande, called the Rio Bravo in CdM) as potential capitals for Arizona if Phoenix can't be it for whatever reason.
All the regions have their strengths and good qualities, but the west has the most potential to be economically viable on its own. I think ultimately any partition would leave the components weaker than they would be together, which I'm sure we'll be seeing postwar.I’ll take your word for it that indeed the West of Kentucky is the part worth having - and so much flow northwards from the Deep South probably indeed causes a “ok I know where you’re really from” situation in the city haha
OTL Phoenix is in the Confederacy, but not by much. The EW line that was proposed was on 34 degrees North, Phoenix is at 33.6 degrees north according to google maps. On the one hand was founded in 1867 in OTL, so it might not exist, on the other hand, it is at the confluence of the Salt and Gila Rivers, which probably gives it some of the best water sources in the Western half of Confederate Arizona until you get all the way to the Colorado river at the USA border. (Basically Western Confederate Arizona gets watered by the Gila and its tributaries and Eastern Confederate Arizona by the Rio Grande. (The Continental Divide runs just on the OTL New Mexico/Arizona border.Which makes me wonder - was Phoenix founded ITTL, and is its location in New Mexico or Arizona? I wonder if the situation that allowed it to balloon to its absurd OTL size would exist, and if doesn't, that could potentially affect water availability in the West overall. In any case I could see Tucson (which is in the Gadsden Purchase area) and Las Cruces (which is right on the Rio Grande, called the Rio Bravo in CdM) as potential capitals for Arizona if Phoenix can't be it for whatever reason.