PC: An Independent/Separate Heavenly Kingdom of China

[Kaiser Chris]

In all the Alternate History scenarios of the site regarding the Taiping Rebellion, people either tend to gravitate to two extremes, a total success of the Rebellion and establishment of Hong Xiuquan as the new ruler of China, or the total defeat of the Rebellion along the same lines of OTL. In my current Timeline Lone Star Republic, I'm trying to find a plausible outcome for the Rebellion which involves neither, but instead a truce which leaves an independent Taiping controlling parts of Southern China.

In my mind this could be done mainly with neither Tianjing or Beijing being able to fall to the other side. Another important factor would be the virtual neutrality of all European powers so that way neither side can get the tech advantage as well as a couple thousand western troops. After years of attrition and little gains made in territory, is it possible for a white peace to be declared? Or at the very least have a Korean style peace where both sides are technically in a state of war and don't recognize the other's existence, but are in a quasi-permanent state of cease-fire?

Let's assume that the borders are more or less the same as here.

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

No, because the very existence of one was anathema to the existence of the other. The Korean situation was caused by foreign intervention; left to their own devices in 1953, both North and South would have fought until reunification.

 

[Schnozzberry]

No, because the very existence of one was anathema to the existence of the other. The Korean situation was caused by foreign intervention; left to their own devices in 1953, both North and South would have fought until reunification.

Yeah, if you want to keep both Qing China and the Taiping China one would need foreign intervention to prop up one of the two Chinas and keep it at a stalemate.

 

[Lord Of Tacos]

Yeah, if you want to keep both Qing China and the Taiping China one would need foreign intervention to prop up one of the two Chinas and keep it at a stalemate.

There was foreign intervention to keep the Qing in power, I doubt that the colonial powers would have taken the Taiping side without several concessions in place.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

No one except pretty much the leaders, the zealots and the bandits wanted Taiping to survive. You're going to have to somehow butterfly away Hong letting others undermine his religious authority, the jealous factionalism that never allowed any sort of proper coordination, the mass kidnapping of women to turn into concubines, nonexistent land reform that basically made Taiping the new feudal masters, and anti-foreign policies.

 

[Remitonov]

No one except pretty much the leaders, the zealots and the bandits wanted Taiping to survive. You're going to have to somehow butterfly away Hong letting others undermine his religious authority, the jealous factionalism that never allowed any sort of proper coordination, the mass kidnapping of women to turn into concubines, nonexistent land reform that basically made Taiping the new feudal masters, and anti-foreign policies.

Not to mention reform the cult into a more mainstream Protestant church, particularly the very blasphemous teachings of Hong's blood ties to Jesus.

 

[mrmandias]

I think its possible without foreign help, maybe with something happening on the Qing side to create more chaos there? But I think its more likely if you get a little more foreign aid/foreign intervention on both sides.

 

[Kaiser Chris]

No, because the very existence of one was anathema to the existence of the other. The Korean situation was caused by foreign intervention; left to their own devices in 1953, both North and South would have fought until reunification.

Yes, but just because one cannot exist with the other on paper, it doesn't mean that it can't happen in reality. If neither the United States nor the USSR/China were involved on the Korean peninsula in any way in the Cold War, it'd be very likely that a situation could've arose where the two sides reached a stalemate from the fact that neither can conquer the other with their own resources. In this scenario here, if China suffers tens of millions of deaths and no army can come close to successfully capturing Beijing or Tianjing, then it would be best to back off for at least a generation so that China as a whole can recover. So the Qing dynasty can act like the Heavenly Kingdom is part of its rightful empire and they would never recognize Hong Xiuqan, but if the war continued with no clear victory then its possible a largescale revolution would be up on the rise. Better to secure the rest of the country and then wait to make the final strike. Like I said, this is an unofficial truce, no peace treaty being signed at all.

Yeah, if you want to keep both Qing China and the Taiping China one would need foreign intervention to prop up one of the two Chinas and keep it at a stalemate.

So what if two European powers were on the opposing sides in backing either the Qing or Taiping in the war? Would that be able to create a stalemate, especially if the two in question are Britain and France? Also would Taiping be willing to accept foreign aid?

No one except pretty much the leaders, the zealots and the bandits wanted Taiping to survive. You're going to have to somehow butterfly away Hong letting others undermine his religious authority, the jealous factionalism that never allowed any sort of proper coordination, the mass kidnapping of women to turn into concubines, nonexistent land reform that basically made Taiping the new feudal masters, and anti-foreign policies.

Not to mention reform the cult into a more mainstream Protestant church, particularly the very blasphemous teachings of Hong's blood ties to Jesus.

The POD for my TL is 1836 and Hong was known to first receive his visions in the middle of 1837. Would it be okay for Hong to receive a different interpretation of his visions that led to the God Worshippers developing a more Protestantat-like theology, possibly with Hong as some sort of legendary "13th disciple" instead of Jesus' brother? Also no concubines and greater allowance of foreign aid and influence?

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

The POD for my TL is 1836 and Hong was known to first receive his visions in the middle of 1837. Would it be okay for Hong to receive a different interpretation of his visions that led to the God Worshippers developing a more Protestantat-like theology, possibly with Hong as some sort of legendary "13th disciple" instead of Jesus' brother? Also no concubines and greater allowance of foreign aid and influence?

Giving Hong some administrative experience would go a long way. He was utterly incompetent, which was why he allowed others to rule instead and thus undermine the whole system.

 

[LDLF]

If Hong had administrative experience, however, might he have passed the Imperial examinations on one of his attempts, and so possibly prevented the rebellion from happening in the first place, or, at least, with him as its head? Or the rebellion would have a different figurehead, which changes the character of it at least.

What if he dies earlier, early enough for his successors to interpret his peculiar version of Christianity into something more palatable to one or two European powers?

 

[Kaiser Chris]

Giving Hong some administrative experience would go a long way. He was utterly incompetent, which was why he allowed others to rule instead and thus undermine the whole system.

If Hong passed his administration exam though then he most likely wouldn't have received his "visions" and would be content working as a bureaucrat. It's his failure in the Chinese system that set him down the path of rebellion.

 

[RousseauX]

No, because the very existence of one was anathema to the existence of the other. The Korean situation was caused by foreign intervention; left to their own devices in 1953, both North and South would have fought until reunification.

this is overly deterministic, plenty of national divisions have lasted for centuries

 

[RousseauX]

In all the Alternate History scenarios of the site regarding the Taiping Rebellion, people either tend to gravitate to two extremes, a total success of the Rebellion and establishment of Hong Xiuquan as the new ruler of China, or the total defeat of the Rebellion along the same lines of OTL. In my current Timeline Lone Star Republic, I'm trying to find a plausible outcome for the Rebellion which involves neither, but instead a truce which leaves an independent Taiping controlling parts of Southern China.

In my mind this could be done mainly with neither Tianjing or Beijing being able to fall to the other side. Another important factor would be the virtual neutrality of all European powers so that way neither side can get the tech advantage as well as a couple thousand western troops. After years of attrition and little gains made in territory, is it possible for a white peace to be declared? Or at the very least have a Korean style peace where both sides are technically in a state of war and don't recognize the other's existence, but are in a quasi-permanent state of cease-fire?


Let's assume that the borders are more or less the same as here.

there was actually a pretty well done tl on independent taiping

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-brother-a-taiping-rebellion-timeline.146230/

really really good read

 

[Kaiser Chris]

So assuming that Taiping manages to get independence, how large could its borders possibly be? My thoughts are the provinces of Fuijan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Zhejiang, and Hubei.

 

[Superninja76]

Wasn't the north on the verge of winning the war before the UN and US came in? Without the UN troops at the busan pocket and no inchon landing, the south may well have lost the war. Then, north korea would maybe be best korea.