Underlined part. So, after I pointed it out, we've all now realised the importance of Cowes and why any attack on IOW needs to take it immediately to prevent reinforcements from shoreside? Good to know.
You may have missed this post:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ndhurst-wargame.463526/page-154#post-19008934
It's not that easy to do a surprise-attack at Cowes. You're gonna get in the range of several coastal artillery batteries.
On a related note, did you know that many military disasters are caused by arrogant assumptions that overlook key details - say like the importance of Cowes - until it is too late? It's called Victory Disease. Grab a Ouija board and ask Yamamoto about it. He'll probably tell you that this thread is choked with the stuff.
Yeah, the germans had loads of it too.
You ask how IOW might stand a small chance of snowballing into losing the war. Something like this -
Step 1 - Germany takes IOW an a massive surprise air/sea assault. Surprise is achieved, the local defenses are overwelmed, and reserves fail to act due to a series of small, diversionary landings elsewhere that absorb attention in the key 24 hour period.
You do realise that the IOW had a radar station which was part of Chaine Home Defence? Even if they wouldn't expect an airborne attack on the Island, the airdefence batteries would be alerted, simply because shooting at planes flying over, is kinda what they are for. It would soon become obvious what was happening.
As for seaborne surprise: the RN didn't just sit back and relax, but was actively patrolling the channel, so they would be on alert, and not just sleeping at their watches. To attack Cowes harbour with surprise: you need to get through a narrow seaway. The chances of getting there unseen are slim.
Step 2 - The RN and RAF attempt, but fail, to interdict the LOC to Isle of Wight over the next 1.5 months. (A series of small expendable convoys run in daylight under massive LW cover, causing a meat grinder effect for the RAF and RN in the Channel between Cherbourg and IOW).
A meat grinder is not the best option for the germans, since the RN outnumbers the KM with aboout 10:1 in anything, and in some stuff lots more.
The RAF and LW have parity. The LW couldn't win the BoB, what makes you think it can win the battle of IOW. Also remember that in the BoB the LW could always choose when to attack, and the RAF had to react, while on the IOW the RAF can choose the moent of attack, and the LW has to react. And they won't have early warning, and their fighters will be mostly stationed in France, so with that reaction time, the RAF-bombers are already back on their base by the time the fighters arrive. To do a constant CAP they don't have the fighters.
Step 3 - The British government, increasingly concerned that IOW is becoming an offensive springboard to seize Portsmouth and Southhampton, orders the British army to retake IOW by storm.
OK.
Step 4 - The British army strips a large chunk of its invasion reserves to retake IOW in September.
Nah, they don't need a large chunk of their reserves. It was already pointed out to you that at the hight of the invasion scare, the British army send an armoured division to Egypt. They can send that instead to IOW.
Step 5 - Sealion lands in the Dover area with British reserves diverted westwards. The landing is not contained due to lack of available reserves to contain it, and breaks out.
After the meatgrinder around Wight, what escorts do the germans have left? They started the operation with less than 10 destroyers.
But I guess you think that the barges will selfprotect them. I'm afraid you're ridden with the victory disease.
Steps 1 and 2 were possible, (posters that suppose the RN, even with RAF cover, can go up against the LW in the Channel day after day are talking complete nonsense). Steps 3-6 would require the British to make a serious error - taking their eye off the ball. I wouldn't think they'd do that, that the risks would outweigh the gains. Why not just wait until the weather turns after October to launch a counterattack?
Even step 1 and 2 require serious error by the British. You're not gonna gain anything with a suicide attack on Wight.
The LW will be quite busy with supplying the IOW, protecting the shipping and planes doing that. Probably also needing to suppres coastal and regular artillery opposite of the IOW, and to make sure the RN doesn't interfere.
BTW. Earlier you said that step 1 was to get the RN to abandon Portsmouth. You seem to have left that out now. Don't you think that a month of bombarding Portsmouth would be some kind of signal that something is about to happen there? Unless of course if they bomb al the ports, but with what planes?