Operation Sea Lion (1974 Sandhurst Wargame)

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Not James Stockdale, Mar 8, 2019.

  1. Michele Well-Known Member

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    The Luftwaffe did its very best to achieve air superiority against Fighter Command in OTL, and failed miserably. Note that they were attacking all along the Channel coast, plus a diversionary attack in the North, while here they would be converging on one fully known location. Yet somehow they should manage to defeat Fighter Command in this ATL, whereas in OTl they were defeated.

    Note that by mid-August, the Germans could field about 910 Bf 109s, while the British single-engine fighters were just 630 (give or take a few, the dates and the data are not exactly the same but reasonably accurate). That's about 3:2 for the Germans. The idea of the Luftwaffe generals was that they would win air superiority gradually, with a campaign lasting many weeks.

    Instead, on July 6, fighters are 760 to 645. That's 5:4 for the Germans. And the German commander wants the Bf 109s to acquire air supremacy instantly. What could go wrong with that?

    Note the German level bombers can be used to some effectiveness against British bases on the mainland, or against ground targets on the Isle of Wight, or concentrations of British forces preparing for embarkation, or RAF airfields. Trying to use them against warships at sea taking evasive maneuvers at top speed is sending them to the slaughter for nothing.

    The operational Stukas, on July 6, were 280, and they were aircraft that could not survive in the presence of unchecked enemy fighters.

    ---

    As a final laughing point, the total force of the Luftwaffe in Europe on July 6, counting only combat aircraft (level bombers, dive bombers, twin-engined fighters and Bf 109s) was about 2,450 aircraft. Let's call it 2,500 (and let's note it had increased, by mid-August). OK, in order to achieve just one of those "hundreds of thousands" of anti-shipping sorties "every day", all of those aircraft (including the fighters that should strive to keep the enemy fighters away from the Stukas) would have to perform 40 sorties a day. If by "hundreds" - plural - we understand at least 3 hundreds of thousands, then each and every last Luftwaffe combat aircraft has to fly 120 anti-shipping missions per day.
    For the numerically challenged, that's one mission every 12 minutes in a 24-hour day. It also assumes the Germans can magically hunt down warships in darkness.
    Yes, it would be impressive (albeit not very useful as far as the sorties by fighters and level bombers are involved), if only it were possible.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2019
  2. Glenn239 Well-Known Member

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    British guns can't stop beach supply landed on the south coast or air supply.
     
  3. Garrison Well-Known Member

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    Unless they sink the supply ships, or hit the supply dumps, or crater the airfields, or hit the supply aircraft on the ground, or they do something really sneaky like fielding some sort of ships with guns that can interdict the beaches and ports on the south coast. But apart from those minor things, no they can't do anything.
     
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  4. Coulsdon Eagle Well-Known Member

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    But lacks sense in strategic or logistic matters.
     
  5. Michele Well-Known Member

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    If the Revenge is in Portsmouth, it can bombard the Atherfield beach (the most distant point on the South beaches) without even leaving the harbor.
     
  6. alfredtuomi Well-Known Member

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    there is a battery overlooking the only feasible beach that is manned 24/7 until 1942.and this beach is also within range of the big guns in portsmouth dockyard.and you have no landing craft to offload your fast supply ships.
     
  7. Glenn239 Well-Known Member

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    [
    A long war for Germany was incredibly risky due to the United States. Sealion was the only possibility for a short war. All other options accepted a long war. Speaking of dogmatism, after reading that 50 times, any progress on realising that Sealion was the only possibility for a short war?
     
  8. Glenn239 Well-Known Member

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    Who said anything about no jump training? What do you think the JU-52's are doing for a month before the battle?
     
  9. varyar Who?

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    An operation that is literally impossible to succeed does indeed mean a shorter war - and a swifter victory for the other side.
     
  10. alfredtuomi Well-Known Member

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    would that be the beach that has a cliff all along it and a sign on the rough trail down there warning that you will be cut off when the tide comes in?
     
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  11. alfredtuomi Well-Known Member

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    one would think that after almost 400 years of planning to repel an invasion the british would have figured it out and put up a few obsticals .
     
  12. nbcman Donor

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    German / Italian surrender would also lead to a short war. Or what you meant to state is that USM was the only possibility of a German victory in a short war?

    Maintenance after Fall Gelb and Fall Rot, integrating new aircraft and aircrews into the Geschwaders, repositioning the aircraft, aircrews, and equipment to new airfields outside of Germany to get them closer to the IOW, and a host of other mundane activities outside of pushing some poor Landsers out the door at elevation.
     
  13. Stenz Don't judge the past by the standards of today... Monthly Donor

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    Glenn said hundreds or thousands.
     
  14. Stenz Don't judge the past by the standards of today... Monthly Donor

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    Only if Sealion is successful. Which is not guaranteed. Then if that success is to sufficient degree to force the British Empire from the war. Which is not guaranteed. Then if Britain leaving the war means the other western democracies cease their belligerency. Which is not guaranteed. Then... you get the idea.

    No. Because it wasn’t. That and you’ve done a terrible job of explaining why it might be.
     
  15. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator Donor

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    That's it. Everybody out of the pool

    I've let this slide as far as its going to get. I had actually hoped you would get tired of throlling the entire thread over and over (and had also hoped that folks would clue the Hell in that they were getting Rick-rolled so this crap wouldn't happen any longer). Neither happened.

    Fine. I'll stop it.

    Kicked for a week.

    You WILL NOT troll like this again on this Board. EVER. Take it too the Bank.
     
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  16. Look More Closely Later Gone fishing means 'responses unlikely' Gone Fishin'

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    If @Mostlyharmless is still around, this thread might be worth adding to the Sea Lion index, if it's not listed on it already.
     
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  17. Zheng He Well-Known Member

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    165 pages, WOW!!!!!
     
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  18. YYJ Well-Known Member

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    I must say, I did learn an awful lot of real history, following this crazytown alt history thread.
     
  19. eltf177 Well-Known Member

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    As have I...
     
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  20. Ian_W Well-Known Member

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    His suggestions were bad, but I'm sure he believed them.

    And he put as much work into it as you did with either the AANW thread, or your reply to the Overlord-in-43.