Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak

Also, I don’t know why, but your answer made me weirdly imagine Menelik II and King Umberto frolicking out in the fields, searching for Dervishes in the undergrowth. XD

Oh my God what i have done:p

Regarding any future relations between the two nation can become more warm if the Dervish can be seen as a common enemy and bring collaboration between the two side...and frankly before Benny, Italy post-Adua interest in the region were more pointed towards economic penetration. For any national developement of Abyssinia the construction of the Ethio-Djibouti Railways (or equivalent) is vital, it can be done on the new port that as been just obtained, but both the italians and the French had an already better and more developed port facilities and more importantly access to the money necessary to build it (at least the French)

A little more seriously, Italy and France with a total different outcome regarding Tunisia, Italy not a member of the Triple Alliance and a lot less institutional paranoia regarding the French will have a much more amicable and relaxed relationships ITTL; France was our biggest economic patner and a major outlet for emigration (seasonal or more permanent) and the Savoyard house still had ties with France...in all honesty even OTL we were in better term with France than with A-H (a nominal ally).

Greece with the great powers intervention had been granted a blessing in disguise, the disastrous war of 1897 has been averted and so no massive (for the Greeks economy) reparations that forced the already weak economy to be controlled by the Great Power; said that everybody in Athens will know that they need to modernize the armed forces and the rest of the nation if they want to have some possibility against the Ottoman and this mean taking loan from France or other nations (even Italy); this can bring the creditors to demand more supervision over the economic management of Greece...due to some structural problem like clientelism and in general the international control brought some needed reform in the state (but even if this happen it will be a lot less traumatic than OTL).
An alliance with Italy is much less problematic, Ionian Islands claim aside...and that is a minor one, basically on the bottom of list and Greece has been a very important cause celebre for many italians so there are a lot of ties between the two nation (many will probably play the classical aspect of this 'agreement') and both are more or less in the same situation in having to conclude the national unification process but facing an old and powerfull empire.

Just two question regarding Greece

1) - she had obtained Thessaly like OTL? The Great Powers promised it to Athens if she remained neutral in the last Russo-Ottoman war
2) - In OTL 1896 the first Olympic games started in Athens and while brought a lot of eyes pointed towards Greece they were a big burden for the Greeks treasury (seem that history repeat itself)...the games happen even ITTL

I do wonder whether Italy, Greece and Serbia would be enough to take down the Ottomans. Certainly they would be quite dominant navally, but the question is whether it allows them the force projection needed.

Well, Italy is in a better position both economically, socially and military ITTL and Greece had the potential to be, so while a Gallipoli-like operation is out of the question (praise the gods), an invasion of Tunisia, Lybia and Ottoman Europe are pretty much doable.
 
To those who are wondering, the latest update is on the previous page.

Things are definitely sliding closer to war. If Germany isn't careful, she might find herself fresh out of friends, and even Wilhelm must figure out that he needs someone to be his friend at some point.

Thankfully, this TL’s Wilhelm has less of an inferiority complex due to his normal birth (though it’s still there), so there’s a chance for the Chancellor or the Bundesrat to influence him in foreign affairs if they try … really really hard.

I do wonder whether Italy, Greece and Serbia would be enough to take down the Ottomans. Certainly they would be quite dominant navally, but the question is whether it allows them the force projection needed.

Well, Italy is in a better position both economically, socially and military ITTL and Greece had the potential to be, so while a Gallipoli-like operation is out of the question (praise the gods), an invasion of Tunisia, Lybia and Ottoman Europe are pretty much doable.

It all depends with the state of their armies, which are very haphazard across the board. The Italian army (or at least its colonial arm) is more battle-hardened than OTL from its foreign adventures while Serbia’s armed forces have been copying a lot from both the French and German models since the Russo-Turkish War. Greece, on the other hand, has not made much progress in that area, leaving them open to another Greco-Turkish War result unless they reorganize fast.

”I don’t like you, but that German guy is scary, wanna team up? “

“Plus, I’ll give you some sweet cash. So what dayya say?” XD

What about some second rate power like netherland? While have no stake in europe conflict the east hindies is another story. […]

Same for sarawak but sarawak case more clear cut[…]

The Netherlands are going to be the most sought-after second-rate Power, that’s for sure. Officially, the government in both Amsterdam and Batavia are neutral to the European alliances, but there are a lot of whispers suggesting a more friendly approach with either Britain or France.

It’s also complicated with the presence of independent Aceh and the various Italian colonies. On one hand, many Indonesian Muslims look to Aceh and its Ottoman backers as a proto-nationalist inspiration, so the Dutch aren’t too fond of the Sublime Porte. On the other, they are far more ambivalent with Italy as the state did push into potentially resource-rich Sabah yet remained good – or at least stable – neighbours at Papua. Currently, there’s a lot of seesawing in whom to favour.

As for Sarawak… you’ll see. ;)

Regarding any future relations between the two nation can become more warm if the Dervish can be seen as a common enemy and bring collaboration between the two side(s)

That’s what I’m aiming for to sooth the tensions between the two. Handling the Dervish threat and carving the Upper Nile valley would bring them to a common cause, and it would net Ethiopia a (colonial) buffer state against Egypt. Now Cairo can’t bang on about water rights unless it pisses off Eritrea.

A little more seriously, Italy and France with a total different outcome regarding Tunisia [...] in all honesty even OTL we were in better term with France than with A-H (a nominal ally).

Italy and France won’t have the same economic or colonial tensions as OTL, though there are some residual issues between the two regarding immigration and safety. If both sides manage to prevent something like the massacre at Aigues-Mortes, then they could find something to bond together.

Greece with the great powers intervention had been granted a blessing in disguise, the disastrous war of 1897 has been averted and so no massive (for the Greeks economy) reparations that forced the already weak economy to be controlled by the Great Power; that said everybody in Athens will know that they need to modernize the armed forces and the rest of the nation if they want to have some possibility against the Ottoman and this mean taking loan from France or other nations (even Italy)

Greece will feel the heat to at least reorganize its armies before taking on the Ottomans directly, but without a conflict like the 1897 war, no one knows (well, most don’t) how far the rot has gone through and how much clientelism there is at the top. There will also be many voices espousing how the armed and naval forces should be reorganized, or what sections to prioritize. On the other hand, averting the Olympic Games and the internal supervision of OTL would be a blessing for the economy and enable the government to have some breathing room. As you say, Greece is currently eying France or Italy for loans, but they are trying to see if they can get things done by themselves first.

An alliance with Italy is much less problematic, […]and both are more or less in the same situation in having to conclude the national unification process but facing an old and powerfull empire

It does bring some poetic symmetry to both nations and their histories, which would be emphasized a lot by their nationalists and irredentists. Speaking of which, that could be the basis for ITTL’s press moniker for the Italy-Greece-Serbia chain: The Latin Alliance, based on the old Roman Empire.

Just two questions regarding Greece:

1) - she had obtained Thessaly like OTL? The Great Powers promised it to Athens if she remained neutral in the last Russo-Ottoman war

2) - In OTL 1896 the first Olympic games started in Athens and while brought a lot of eyes pointed towards Greece they were a big burden for the Greeks treasury (seem that history repeat itself)...the games happen even ITTL

1) Salonika and Mount Athos are still in Ottoman hands, as the Great Powers didn’t promise that to Greece during the 1877 war ITTL. As you can guess, this is another sore spot for the country’s conservatives and is one reason why some of them are eying Russian help.

2) The Olympic Games were not held in Greece in 1896 due to the kerfuffle involving Crete and the Ottomans ITTL, though the notion of a global athletics event has been circulating for decades beforehand. There were some athletics events during the Paris Exposition under the ‘Olympic Games’ title, but they were relegated mostly to side shows. If anything, there might be momentum for such a sporting event after the Great War, as a wat to heal and knit back the nations that had fought each other.
 
That’s what I’m aiming for to sooth the tensions between the two. Handling the Dervish threat and carving the Upper Nile valley would bring them to a common cause, and it would net Ethiopia a (colonial) buffer state against Egypt. Now Cairo can’t bang on about water rights unless it pisses off Eritrea.

Well, in OTL immediate post-WWI Rome tried to bring London in a scheme for the irrigation of South Sudan-Eritrea-Tigrai...ITTL the plan can be a joint Italian-Abyssinian endevour (if loan can be secured) as the railway that unite Adis-Abeba to a port in the Red Sea (but in this case i see the French being brought in due to monetary reason).
In any case warm or at least cordial relations between Italy and Ethiopia will serve both side in keep the respective situation stable (and deprive possible rebels of support or just a place to stay) and everyone know that they need such stability; the Ethiopians to complete their modernization and the italians to finish the pacification effort in the colonies and to not always watch their back in term of security so to concentrate towards the Ottoman and the British.

Italy and France won’t have the same economic or colonial tensions as OTL, though there are some residual issues between the two regarding immigration and safety. If both sides manage to prevent something like the massacre at Aigues-Mortes, then they could find something to bond together.

Yep, at least the slightly better situation in Italy will have somewhat diminished the migratory flux (even if France will still remain one of the big destination) lessening the overall tension

It does bring some poetic symmetry to both nations and their histories, which would be emphasized a lot by their nationalists and irredentists. Speaking of which, that could be the basis for ITTL’s press moniker for the Italy-Greece-Serbia chain: The Latin Alliance, based on the old Roman Empire.

Serbia doesn't really fit historycally, but i doubt that this will prevent the journalists to informally name this agreement in this manner; i doubt that such a move will make many people happy in Wien, even when formally allied, A-H tried to stop italian economic/political penetration in the Balkans, so a formal alliance with Serbia will cause serious though.
The other power that will look interested in this developement will be the UK as any change in the Mediterrean will interest them as that sealane is extremely important for the Empire, expecially if another of the big boys (the one that already have base on both side of the Sicily straits) is involved.

Regarding Greece, well even if the army is not had reformed as OTL, at least the (somewhat) better economic situation will mean better equipment and OTL there were the problem of the national schism to handicap the war effort and the political decision in WWI
 
Speaking of which, that could be the basis for ITTL’s press moniker for the Italy-Greece-Serbia chain: The Latin Alliance, based on the old Roman Empire.

Latin, despite the Greeks speaking Greek which is not even related and following orthodox rites and the Serbians being slavic, when other members of the Latin language group are not (yet?) part of the alliance?

I'd suggest 'Adriatic alliance', as all states have a border with that sea and it would tie nicely to Austria-Hungary feeling hostile as the name could imply the alliance intends to take Austrian ports.
 
I'd suggest 'Adriatic alliance', as all states have a border with that sea and it would tie nicely to Austria-Hungary feeling hostile as the name could imply the alliance intends to take Austrian ports.

Except Serbia, which does not have a coastline. But the name does fit better than my option, and the press would likely ignore Serbia's position in favor of the threating-sounding compact.

Well, I guess there's also the "mash-the-first-words" choice, but the results are really ugly to read. GIS Alliance? SIG? IGS? :(
 
Latin, despite the Greeks speaking Greek which is not even related and following orthodox rites and the Serbians being slavic, when other members of the Latin language group are not (yet?) part of the alliance?

I'd suggest 'Adriatic alliance', as all states have a border with that sea and it would tie nicely to Austria-Hungary feeling hostile as the name could imply the alliance intends to take Austrian ports.

Greece and Italy are both South Europeans nation that are iconically associated with the Ancient times and Rome (and Serbia is in the neighborough)...it will be probably enough for the Anglo-Saxon nation press to start calling in this manner this alliance; the real name (and the one used by the members) will be something of pretty much more formal like: Trattato d'alleanza tra Italia, Grecia e Serbia ( Treaty of Alliance between Italy, Greece and Serbia).
 
Or there's the classic method of naming the alliance after the signatory city. Or you could name it after the head diplomats involved.
 
Except Serbia, which does not have a coastline. But the name does fit better than my option, and the press would likely ignore Serbia's position in favor of the threating-sounding compact.

Well, I guess there's also the "mash-the-first-words" choice, but the results are really ugly to read. GIS Alliance? SIG? IGS? :(

For some reason, I had forgotten than Austria-Hungary held all of the Dalmatian coast north of Montenegro prior to the war. In my mind's eye, Serbia had a corridor to the sea at the expense of lands actually held by Austria and Montenegro.
 
it will be probably enough for the Anglo-Saxon nation press to start calling in this manner this alliance
Or there's the classic method of naming the alliance after the signatory city. Or you could name it after the head diplomats involved.

Hmm... I think I'll decide on the term over the next updates. In the meantime, the next pre-Great War installment is still being written, this time focusing on East and Southeast Asia. Ottomans and Italians and Chinese migrants, oh my!
 
Hey everyone.

First off, I want to say that this timeline is faaaaaar from going dead. But... my family and I are going through some personal drama, and I am deeply affected by what's happening. I'm going on a trip over the rest of the week to try and collect myself with my mother, and there's going to be lot of piecing together our lives afterwards. As such, the next updates are going to be intermittent or short at best.

The next installment is close to being complete and should be up by tomorrow. So, you all won't be exactly left high and dry, at least.

May you all are happy, wherever you are. May peace be in your heart.
 
Hey everyone.

First off, I want to say that this timeline is faaaaaar from going dead. But... my family and I are going through some personal drama, and I am deeply affected by what's happening. I'm going on a trip over the rest of the week to try and collect myself with my mother, and there's going to be lot of piecing together our lives afterwards. As such, the next updates are going to be intermittent or short at best.

The next installment is close to being complete and should be up by tomorrow. So, you all won't be exactly left high and dry, at least.

May you all are happy, wherever you are. May peace be in your heart.
Is okay rl problem must always come first. Hopefully things will get better for you:)
 
Hey everyone.

First off, I want to say that this timeline is faaaaaar from going dead. But... my family and I are going through some personal drama, and I am deeply affected by what's happening. I'm going on a trip over the rest of the week to try and collect myself with my mother, and there's going to be lot of piecing together our lives afterwards. As such, the next updates are going to be intermittent or short at best.

The next installment is close to being complete and should be up by tomorrow. So, you all won't be exactly left high and dry, at least.

May you all are happy, wherever you are. May peace be in your heart.
Sorry to hear that. :(
Hope the problem might be resolved favourably to you and your family.
 
Pre-Great War situation (Part 2/3)
Spanish Phlippine soldiers.jpg


Urifah bt. Kesuma, The Imperial Web in Southeast Asia: 1889-1905, (Dutton: 1987)


…With the Philippines still smouldering from the First War of Independence, and following the entrenchment of the Habsburg Kriegsmarine at the oil town of Miri, one British mandarin in Singapore typed out a worrying cable in late 1899: “…Such are the number of nations rooting around here, that I fear a mere spark could ignite the entire tinderbox.”

And indeed, there was much to worry for. By the decade’s end, the colonizers of Southeast Asia were beginning to feel crowded by their own numbers. Never before had so many European nations jostle for such a limited amount of territory, save for perhaps the African continent. On the four principal regions of Sundaland alone, there were six different colonial Powers all vying for space: the British Empire, the Dutch East Indies, the Kingdom of Italy, the Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungary, and Imperial Russia. Besides that, the region also contains the influential native states of Johor and Siam, as well as the half-native, half-foreign, independent British appanage of the Kingdom of Sarawak.

Further afield, there was more at play. In Indochina, both the British and French eyed each another’s diplomatic movements through the buffer state of Siam. In the scattered archipelagos of the east, both the Spanish Philippines and the Dutch East Indies filled voluminous swathes in contemporary naval charts. At New Guinea, four different types of colonialism were taking root and colouring the land under the differing principles of their faraway masters. Once open seas have transformed into important waterways, with the South China Sea alone becoming chocked full with military cruisers from almost a dozen navies, while merchants and refugees headed south in crowded junks, fleeing persecution and social unrest in Qing China. [1]

With so many colonies and native states crammed side by side, it was unavoidable for tensions to mount. While grudges and agitation between the Powers were far from new, the arrival of the Russian Empire to the region in 1898 ratcheted up the stakes for everyone involved, especially with the Franco-Russian alliance raising eyebrows in the West. While Tsar Alexander III personally stated his disinterest in forging an east-west connection through the Malay Peninsula, the Straits Settlements Office in Singapore remained suspicious of the Tsar’s naval base in Phuket, unsettled by the possibility of an ocean-girdling Franco-Russian colonial force. The fact that France herself was still eying more territory from Siam and occupied several border provinces did not help jitters.

Nor was there any reprieve in Sumatra, where the sultanate of Aceh suddenly found itself in an awkward position. Unlike British-oriented Johor, the royal court at Kutaraja eagerly pivoted towards Ottoman scholarship and imported whatever knowledge was en vogue at Cairo and Kostantiniyye, as well as sending students abroad to be educated in Islamic reformism. Similarly, their Ottoman protectors also found much to trade and influence with their tropical partner, resulting in a number of financial loans to the sultanate and a naval base being built near the capital by the mid-1890’s.

The arrival of the Russian station at Phuket altered everything. Almost everyone at Aceh had heard of the Russo-Turkish War, which was disseminated by way of wandering performers and storytellers whom orally recounted the battles of Plevna and the Caucasian east. As such, the establishment of a Russian base right across the Strait of Malacca was considered as a dark sign, with many Acehnese whispering that the faraway war against the mightiest Islamic empire has come to their very doorstep. Many villages and local notables had lived through the worst of the Aceh War, developing deep physical and psychological scars from the conflict. Many now feared at the ominous portent as were those itching for a fight.


Ottoman Mesudiye.jpg


Contemporary postcard featuring the Ottoman ironclad Mesudiye. An outdated vessel, she was retrofitted and sent to Aceh to patrol her shores against perceived Russian influence.

More importantly, it knocked the Acehnese court to their senses regarding native defence, and Sultan Alauddin Muhammad Da'ud Syah II hastily accepted requests for Ottoman naval patrols and Turkish generals whom would train the locals in modern warfare. There were also rising concerns about the racial nature of the state, especially as Chinese migrants and refugees began settling on Aceh’s shores…

…January 1st 1900 passed through the region in great fanfare, with celebrations heralding the new century being held across the length and breadth of colonial Southeast Asia. But it took only 14 months afterwards for another affair to jangle regional nerves: the Trat Crisis. Since the 1890’s, the Siamese border provinces of Chantaburi and Trat were occupied by French colonial troops from neighbouring Indochina, holding them as bargaining chips against the whim of Bangkok. By February 1901, French officials decided to force Siam’s hand again: Indochina shall annex all Siamese provinces that lay on the banks of the Mekong River, in exchange for giving up the two occupied regions. [2]

This caused an uproar. The Colonial Office at London rebuked the territorial exchange, but what no one expected was the reaction of Imperial Russia. Siam had courted the empire as a fifth column of support, and Alexander III was nothing if not a man of his word. He publicly broke with protocol and vowed that Russia would support Siamese integrity in whatever fashion possible, even commanding imperial vessels to be stationed at Bangkok to prevent a repeat of 1893, where French gunboats aimed their cannons at the Royal Palace. The Russian response stunned both French and British diplomats, and the resulting negotiations saw the territorial gains being massively shrunk. In the end, France was forced to relinquish both Chantaburi and Trat in exchange for annexing only three provinces in the south: Battambang, Sisophon, and Siam Nakhon. [3]

It was a sharp lesson for Paris, whom quickly made adjustments to their alliance that would ensure Russian support in future colonial endeavours. Sadly, this would also be Alexander III’s last flirt with Siam as his health – already in decline – deteriorated afterwards…


cambodia map.jpg


Map of French Cambodia after the Trat Crisis, showing the absorbed towns/provinces of Battambang, Sisophon, and Siam Nakhon (renamed as Siam Reap – Defeat of Siam). The purple areas signified French claims over Siam.


Further south, a new affair was brewing in the independent state of Johor. While sultan Abu Bakar made no secret of his Anglophilia and European reformism, parts of the royal court weren’t as pivotal as he. Oppositionally, a faction of conservative nobles supported for greater Ottoman influence in Malaya, pointing to nearby Aceh and Riau-Lingga as an inspiration. It was this that led to a secret discussion between several power brokers of leasing the district of Tanjung Piai – the southernmost point of Johor, Malaya, and continental Asia – to the Sublime Porte.

Abu Bakar squashed any notion of such when the plot was uncovered, not least because the sultanate’s finance minister notified him of British influence in the region’s commerce, but he failed to keep the matter from reaching the ears of Singapore. Still reeling from the crisis at Siam, the Colonial Office decided to take the initiative in a secret discussion with the sultan and his ministers: Johor could lease Tanjung Piai to the Royal Navy for a fee, or the British would enact high tariffs on Johorean goods.

Abu Bakar caved. The court was astonished. True, the cape was nothing more than a mangrove swamp surrounded by tidal mudflats, but it still meant a diminution of Johorean soil. The fact that their regional ally behaved in such a forward and bullish manner further unsettled the government. This event, culminating after decades of creeping anxiety over Johor’s cultural and racial makeup, would finally birth what is locally known as the Kaum Islah – The Reformers…

…Borneo was perhaps the most tinkersome of all the regions of Sundaland. With that said, no one expected the decade to end with Sarawak, Great Britainm and Austria-Hungary banding together to create a new regional ‘Oil Bloc’. The formation of the Oil Policy was seen by many as an odd event, but few overlooked its subtler implications of a trans-imperial pact. All the stakeholders were united around the presence of petroleum along the Bornean coast, and all were aware of the substance’s potential. Miri became a mini-boomtown with drilling wells mushrooming on the hills and reclaimed swamps, maintained mostly by immigrant workers harangued from China, the majority of them being Christian refugees fleeing the aftermath of the Sino-Japanese War. [4]

More darkly, it also led the Oil Bloc to eye the sultanate of Brunei. Being a protectorate of the Italian government, Brunei had coasted through the 1890’s without much action. The establishment of the Oil Bloc, with both the Royal Navy and the Kreigsmarine building special bases at Miri, changed everything. Italian prospectors now fanned out over the sultanate’s swamps, and it wasn’t long before everyone’s suspicions were confirmed: there was petroleum, and lots of it. The discovery of major oil deposits at Padang Berawa in April 1902 were a sensation, and the Sandakan government quickly forced an agreement that stipulated the majority of profits to Rome and to the oil companies. This action, culminating after years of neglect and manipulation, was too much for some, and several Bruneian nobles began to consider opening secret channels to other Powers...

But more was as yet to come. Just five months later, another discovery was made in the Italian territory of Sabah. Near the border with Dutch Borneo, prospectors stumbled upon the largest ore deposit ever discovered on the island till then: the Silimpopon coalfield. This double discovery of resources quickly shot Italian Borneo to become a high-priority area for the Italian government, whom quickly ordered for greater protections to their faraway possessions. But the increased presence of the Regia Marina also sparked new misgivings; Batavia, Singapore, and especially Kuching had lingering doubts as to their neighbour’s character, and Charles Brooke had always been irked by Italy’s protection over Brunei, of which he viewed as his ultimate conquest. Still, it wasn’t until 1903 that these doubts manifested in another spectacular incident: the Labuan Affair.


Map_of_Labuan_1888.jpg


Map of Labuan island, circa 1888.


Situated on the northern edge of Brunei Bay, the island of Labuan had been a British Crown Colony under the guidance of Singapore since the Brooke-Royal Navy expedition of 1846 [5]. But due to a combination of neglect, improper administration, and sheer dumb luck, it was administratively paralyzed when nearby Brunei became an Italian protectorate. Now, the colonial office at Sandakan wished to remove a potential threat to Brunei’s petroleum deposits. Italian envoys were sent across Sundaland and Europe, hoping to buy the island or trade it with other pieces of territory. Unfortunately, the Colonial Office wished to exchange Labuan for Italian Eritrea, and Charles Brooke shut out any notion of giving away an island that his predecessor once fought for.

In the end, tiny Labuan was sold to the Kingdom of Italy for an exorbitant sum of 27,000,000 Pounds, which astonished the government in Rome. The Italian public was even more enraged; that their own government would give so much for a small (yet strategic) island was inconceivable, and riots ensued across all major Italian cities. In 1904, the government fell, succeeded by a new administration that leaned sharply to the political right.

Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising then that relations between Sarawak, Great Britain, and Italy took a dramatic nosedive afterwards…


********************


alliance map(s) 2.jpg



____________________

Notes:

[1] and [4]: See post #1048 for the Sino-Japanese War and its aftermath.

[2] France did this (in a sort of ways) at Luang Prabang IOTL at around the same decade, which is why the Mekong River up there is controlled by Laos on both sides. ITTL, this did not happen.

[3] Also known IOTL as Battambang, Banteay Meanchey, and Siam Reap aka. western Cambodia.

[5] This happened waaaaaaay back in post #43, and was essentially the expedition that made Sarawak independent from Brunei.
 

sxeron10

Banned
I can feel the tension from here... and a early Great War as well is about to happen. Man, what a great timeline this is.
 
A wonderfully messy web of alliances of opportunity.

I would wager Germany and the USA will end up playing friendly neutral to the British-Austrian-Ottoman alliance and end up benefiting the most from the war.
 
First, take care of family and good luck in dealing with the current situation.

Second, great update, the tension are rising and the web of alliance is now more complicated, plus 27 million for Labuan? Sure that there are been riots and the goverment fell...it's more than a robbery
 
I would wager Germany and the USA will end up playing friendly neutral to the British-Austrian-Ottoman alliance and end up benefiting the most from the war.

The problem in this alliance it's the fact that unless Austria had reformed his military (and his goverment) it's not really suited for a long war...at least now without Germany help
 
First off, thank you all so much for your concerns. I had to keep off the net and enter this site unlogged for only a few times over the past week, but the comments really made me smile through all that happened. Suffice to say, familial issues have cropped up and things have gone very much pear-shaped around my family and I. I had to step away from this site partly to console myself and internalize the conflict and partly to comfort my mother. Things are better now, though not perfect, and there is a chance for familial matters to take a nosedive, but I think everything around me has stabilized enough for me to return to the Net.

Thank you, all.

Now, onwards!


I can feel the tension from here... and a early Great War as well is about to happen. Man, what a great timeline this is.

Thanks! As for an early Great War, the trans-imperial tensions aren’t quite complete yet. There is still one last region that will link all the regional disputes and conflicts together, though no one ever thought said region was a veritable world-war-causing powderkeg till now. ;)


A wonderfully messy web of alliances of opportunity.

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend” isn't really a good proverb to dealing with global interlocked conflicts. :rolleyes:


I would wager Germany and the USA will end up playing friendly neutral to the British-Austrian-Ottoman alliance and end up benefiting the most from the war.

The problem in this alliance it's the fact that unless Austria had reformed his military (and his government) it's not really suited for a long war...at least now without Germany help

And Germany won’t like it if their gigantic neighbor goes around increasing their influence by destabilizing the Balkans and Danube basin. The fact that said Balkans and Danube basin is home to fellow ethnic Germans would raise their ire even further. Having a bellicose Kaiser also doesn't help.

Austria-Hungary’s army isn't reformed, and their military spending is paltry when compared with their immediate neighbors. But what they do have ITTL is diplomatic leverage and potential access to the largest markets and industrial colonies in the world via Britain and Germany, so there could be a chance for the A-H government to buy superior weaponry/artillery and use that to hold the line, if just for a little longer.

OF course, this doesn't preclude upsets of military quality, wartime shenanigans, or political issues in both Vienna and Berlin…

As for the USA, they are beginning to get over their failed attempt at intervening the Cuban War of Devolution, and the imperial caucus in Congress are salivating at potential holdings in the Pacific. Pearl Harbour may become a very busy base soon enough.


A Russo-Thai alliance would be a sight to see.

Maybe, maybe not. King Chulalongkorn and his ministers erred to Russia as another base of support for their kingdom’s independence, hoping (correctly) that St. Petersburg’s clout is enough to counter the British-French rivalry over Siam and Indochina. But he also knows the danger of allying too much with one Power and depending on it to solve your foreign issues, as their British neighbors had so ungratefully showed them in 1893.

For now, Siam is staying neutral and trying to keep itself aloof from the web of alliances.Only time will tell if it would hold.
 
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Austria-Hungary’s army isn’t reformed, and their military spending is paltry when compared with their immediate neighbours. But what they do have ITTL is diplomatic leverage and potential access to the largest markets and industrial colonies in the world via Britain and Germany, so there could be a chance for the A-H government to buy superior weaponry/artillery and use that to hold the line, if just for a little longer.

OF course, this doesn’t preclude upsets of military quality, wartime shenanigans, or political issues in both Vienna and Belin…

IRC (and i bow before people with more knowledge of the argument), the problem was really never the money available or the access to modern weaponery, more the political will and desire to spend it (and the problems the Hungarian part of the Empire had with a modern and capable common army).
Conrad, for all his fault (and there were many), was the best of the group and tried to reform the military (so an earlier WW can see the Hapsburg armed forces in a worse position in term of organization, tattic and doctrine than OTL)
 
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