ATL Turkish Declinist literature written by the Grey Wolves-meets-Milosevic (Turanist?) equivalents of Vladimir Zhirinovsky or even Yuri Petukhov would definitely be a fun read within this setting, short of OTL Turkey already having their own local analogues.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
ATL Turkish Declinist literature written by the Grey Wolves-meets-Milosevic (Turanist?) equivalents of Vladimir Zhirinovsky or even Yuri Petukhov would definitely be a fun read within this setting, short of OTL Turkey already having their own local analogues.
Unlikely to see so many changes compared to OTL here. Deporting Azeris would mean deporting the titular nationality of an SSR which is unprecedented and would open up a can of worms. Russian Tatars are too well integrated to be at risk too. Plus there is no risk of the Germans pushing that far.
I don't see the Turks doing well at all in an invasion of the Caucasus. At least not while Greece fights on. A frontline in the Caucasus may likely be quite static.
Now if the Turks try to stir up troubles in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan. Expect any Soviet crackdown to be brutal, especially as Central Asia is where factories will be evacuated to.
Well, in TTL Nagorno Karabakh and Nakhichevan are included in the Armenian SSR along with Kars and Ardahan.
It is possible that the allure of an attack through the Caucasus to Baku will be too much to resist- regardless the folly of the endeavor. Those Gebirgsjäger at the Greek Front in a few months they might deploy to Turkey. However, there is but a single railroad to the caucasian border - and single-gauge if memory serves right. The Axis won't be able to deploy superior armies at the frontline. I believe they will encounter fanatical resistance by the armenian units of the Red Army - they will be facing the prospect of a second genocide after all.
It is possible that the allure of an attack through the Caucasus to Baku will be too much to resist- regardless the folly of the endeavor. Those Gebirgsjäger at the Greek Front in a few months they might deploy to Turkey. However, there is but a single railroad to the caucasian border - and single-gauge if memory serves right. The Axis won't be able to deploy superior armies at the frontline. I believe they will encounter fanatical resistance by the armenian units of the Red Army - they will be facing the prospect of a second genocide after all.
One word: Barbarossa...But why? Germany has conquered France and is bombing Britain in her islands. What can possibly go wrong?
If the Germans jump the Soviets on schedule this is a definite possibility... if Turkey joins the war. There would be very strong undercurrents both or and against within the Turkish elites. Of course if a Soviet war is a go the Turks may not be given much option by either side. Nagorno-Karabakh has been Armenian TTL but in a scenario were the Soviets annex Sevres Armenia and Pontus I wouldn't much want to be the Turkish populations in the area...Пожалуйста дайте мне попкорн ;-)
Post-war, the Soviet Union could obtain all of its OTL claims from 1946.
Not exactly a small chunk of territory, but one which also presents significant opportunities for the Soviet Union, especially with population transfers.
For example, all Armenians living in Azerbaijan and in the Karabakh could be repatriated into Western Armenia to repopulate it (I wonder what Armenia population is like TTL given its larger territory). The Soviet Union could even join Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan directly and transfer Sunak Armenians westwards.
A large Russian minority could also be settled in the new territories to further entrench control.
I always thought that when all is said and done Kemal may have been more bad than good after 1923. Why? Because in effect he set up an one party state with all its trappings. And while the one party state may have been dismantled in 1950 the oversized influence of the mostly military elite remained. TTL Turkey actually has had something of a multi-party period in the 1920s.
If the question arises Churchill would probably want to include Turkey in the alt-percentages agreement...
I'm watching sometimes Turkish nationalist twitter and its Greek counterpart. It makes for... a fascinating read. For various shades of fascinating.
The mountains would be hardly helping. Local Armenians and Greeks seeing the Turks as an existential threat neither. OTOH the Soviets would have to also deal with a massive invasion in Europe. And the descendants of the Special Organization and the Karakol Society will be likely able to create a lesser or larger degree of trouble.
3,000t is the figure I've seen for the Turkish rail network going east. Not all of this can go to the Caucasus... or Syria without affecting the other.
The Turkish pocket battleship? What about it?
Can easily imagine the triumphalism on both sides, though somewhat morbidly fascinated by the experiences of post-war ATL Turkey leading them to mostly adopt a similar anti/post-nationalist and anti/post-triumphalist outlook in general as say OTL post-war Germany (though like the latter with a few leaders still seeking a prominent role as part of a larger trans-national bloc) with a few fringe nationalist cranks going into the darkly comedic in churning out some of most absurdly paranoid anti-Western declinist texts ever seen (that maybe even spawns a Last Divination-meets-Valley of the Wolves style mockbuster franchise or more).
Can see things getting pretty grim in ATL if they decide to attack the Soviets in light of OTL wartime/post-war Soviet actions (not to mention the potential aftermath) as well as the fact a not insignificant number of people residing in Turkey are of Circassian background.
Someone mentioned Circassians? There are probably some interesting dynamics at play TTL between the Turkified majority and the minorities in Western Anatolia that clashed with the Nationalists in 1920-21 and ended up allied with the Greeks and excepted from the population exchange.
Part 70 Mountain of the Gods
Olympus, March 9th, 1941
Three weeks of fighting had so far cost the Wehrmacht 12,568 men and 140 tanks, with another 4,812 men and 92 tanks lost by the Italians. But allied casualties had been much higher, intelligence was estimating that the single Greek armoured division had been entirely destroyed and allied casualties must be nearing 100,000 men. But now it was essential to break through the Olympus passes before the allies could properly dug in which would make the German and Italian job all the more difficult. The 10 Bulgarian divisions that had taken part in the initial offensive were not available any more, the 4 in Eastern Macedonia had wheeled east in an attempt to bypass the Greek army in Thrace, the ones further west had been absorbed in occupation duties in Greek Macedonia and gradually replacing Hungarian troops further north, a polite excuse to cover the Bulgarian reluctance to participate in the invasion of Thessaly in the face of ever increasing casualties, the invasion of Macedonia had cost Bulgaria 14,000 more casualties already. In their place 5 fresh German divisions, three of the L Corps in addition to the 294th Infantry and 4th Gebirgs divisions had joined the 12th army for the assault. It was true the railroads through northern Greece and Yugoslavia were being strained to the utmost but that was not of much concern to field marshal List. What could be the worst that could happen, Greek and Serb economic life collapse from the lack of civilian traffic? The Axis were already "requisitioning" anything that moved and could be stolen from food to metals and giving a good shake to things tied down...
Lemnos, March 10th, 1941
Parachutes start opening behind the Ju-52 formations as the 2nd Fallschirmjäger regiment was dropped on the island. The Greek defenders, a single infantry battalion and the local Chorofylaki detachment, welcomed them with machine gun and rifle fire while the Germans were still in the air. But despite the casualties by the 13th the island, as well as Samothrace, Imvros and Tenedos were in German hands.
Washington DC, March 11th, 1941
The Lend Lease Act had already passed Congress. Now president Roosevelt signed it into law. Britain, China and Greece, assuming it survived, would not lack the tools to fight as long as American industry had any say about it.
Mount Sipilus (Spil Dag), Ionia, March 12th, 1941
Turkish artillery opened up on the Greek positions defending Smyrna. The 1st and 2nd Turkish armies had captured the entirety of Asiatic Greece outside the Smyrna fortified zone inflicting over 27,000 casualties to the Army of Asia Minor in the precious three weeks. But it had not come cheap, Turkish casualties were nearing 49,000 men and now the Greeks were hiding behind the strongest fortifications in the Eastern Mediterranean, over 30 forts backed by heavy artillery were covering the 130 kilometers of the Smyrna line. Now it remained to be seen if the forts had been worth their money.
Patriarchate, Constantinople, March 13th, 1941
Fighting had died down a couple of days ago as the last Greek defenders had died fighting or hidden amid the mass of the Christian population, to be replaced by the inevitable atrocities as 2 decades of repressed hate exacerbated by weeks of heavy house to house fighting boiled over. Patriarch Chrysanthus II had refused to escape Constantinople and leave his flock to their fates. A Turkish army detachment had arrested him a few hours earlier. The military tribunal that had followed had been a formality.
"Chrysanthus Filippidis, Rum patriarch. You have been condemned to death in absentia on charges of high treason by the Amasya Independent Court in 1921. You remain a fugitive since then. You are further condemned by this court to death as a ringleader to the traitorous attempt to annex Istanbul to Greece the past few months. You shall be executed by firing squad, the execution to take place immediately."
"I refuse execution by firing squad" had been Chrysanthus only comment.
"I beg your pardon?" the colonel running the tribunal, had failed to hide his surprise.
"Tradition demands the Christian hierarchs are executed by hanging not by firing squad. I demand to be hanged!"
"So be it then. We won't waste the bullets on you"
Chrysanthus would be put on a noose the same day. George Weller writing for the Chicago Daily News would smuggle out the story and photographs of the execution a week later ironically enough in a DLH passenger plane a week later. It would win him the Pulitzer prize the next year.
Olympus, March 15th, 1941
Sarantaporo fell to the 4th Gebirgs division. The same night a counterattack by the 2/39 Euzone regiment would throw the Germans back. The next day the Germans would attack once more. Attacks and counterattacks would continue with the pass changing hands several times.
Baghdad, Royal Palace. March 16th, 1941
King Ghazi had been forced back in January to replace Rashid Ali as prime minister. He had been quietly fuming and not so quietly plotting since then. The entry of Turkey in the war had opened opportunities but also dangers. It was well known that Turkey in the past had designs on Arab lands. But it was equally well known that Turkey had given aid to Syrian nationalists back in 1925. His House may have rebelled against the Ottoman empire in WW1 but had been part of the Ottoman system before that. What it was to be this time? The Turkish envoy secretly dispatched to Baghdad, was here to offer assurances, Turkey was willing to forego any territorial ambitions in Arab lands and offer alliance as long as the Arabs were willing to cooperate and the position of the Turkish sultan as caliph was not challenged. Ghazi was naturally inclined to the offer as was Amin al-Husseini the exiled grand mufti of Jerusalem. Jamil Mardam also exiled in Baghdad was rather more reluctant. Much like Shukri al-Quwaitli back in Syria he preffered a wait and see stance. The Syrian nationalists had many grudges against France, not least the separation of the Alawites, Kurds and Lebanese from Syria proper. But both al-Quwaitli and Mardam were too clever to blindly trust the Germans or the Turks despite being in contact with both or take British defeat for granted. They'd wait and see. In the meantime Turks and French could go on killing off each other in the border...
Epirus, March 22nd, 1941
The Italian army entered Ioannina. The 22 Italian divisions in the Epirote front were advancing at a snails pace but the Greeks simply did not have sufficient numbers to stop the advance. And unless the Germans were beaten back in Thessaly it was impossible to provide reinforcements.
Sirte, March 24th, 1941
The German attack had start as a reconnaissance in force. Rommel had quickly turned it into all out attack against the British forces, at this point consisting of 4 infantry and 2 armoured brigades with 256 tanks. Sirte fell the same day with the Germans advancing towards El Agheila.
Thessaly, March 28th, 1941
Elasson fell to the Germans. It had been a close run, if the Allied forces had had just a few more days to organize before the German attack on the Olympus they would probably had held. In the end air superiority and luck in the form an inopportune failing of judgement on the of brigadier James Hargest ordering the 5th New Zealand brigade to pull back from her position at the wrong moment had gained the Germans the battle. A furious Pangalos had ordered Hargest immediately removed from command but allied counterattacks had failed to remedy the situation. They had gained the allies time though to retreat in good order. As long as the Germans failed to make any big encirclements and the Allied soldiers retained their will to fight, Greece wasn't exactly short of mountains to offer defensive positions...
Three weeks of fighting had so far cost the Wehrmacht 12,568 men and 140 tanks, with another 4,812 men and 92 tanks lost by the Italians. But allied casualties had been much higher, intelligence was estimating that the single Greek armoured division had been entirely destroyed and allied casualties must be nearing 100,000 men. But now it was essential to break through the Olympus passes before the allies could properly dug in which would make the German and Italian job all the more difficult. The 10 Bulgarian divisions that had taken part in the initial offensive were not available any more, the 4 in Eastern Macedonia had wheeled east in an attempt to bypass the Greek army in Thrace, the ones further west had been absorbed in occupation duties in Greek Macedonia and gradually replacing Hungarian troops further north, a polite excuse to cover the Bulgarian reluctance to participate in the invasion of Thessaly in the face of ever increasing casualties, the invasion of Macedonia had cost Bulgaria 14,000 more casualties already. In their place 5 fresh German divisions, three of the L Corps in addition to the 294th Infantry and 4th Gebirgs divisions had joined the 12th army for the assault. It was true the railroads through northern Greece and Yugoslavia were being strained to the utmost but that was not of much concern to field marshal List. What could be the worst that could happen, Greek and Serb economic life collapse from the lack of civilian traffic? The Axis were already "requisitioning" anything that moved and could be stolen from food to metals and giving a good shake to things tied down...
Lemnos, March 10th, 1941
Parachutes start opening behind the Ju-52 formations as the 2nd Fallschirmjäger regiment was dropped on the island. The Greek defenders, a single infantry battalion and the local Chorofylaki detachment, welcomed them with machine gun and rifle fire while the Germans were still in the air. But despite the casualties by the 13th the island, as well as Samothrace, Imvros and Tenedos were in German hands.
Washington DC, March 11th, 1941
The Lend Lease Act had already passed Congress. Now president Roosevelt signed it into law. Britain, China and Greece, assuming it survived, would not lack the tools to fight as long as American industry had any say about it.
Mount Sipilus (Spil Dag), Ionia, March 12th, 1941
Turkish artillery opened up on the Greek positions defending Smyrna. The 1st and 2nd Turkish armies had captured the entirety of Asiatic Greece outside the Smyrna fortified zone inflicting over 27,000 casualties to the Army of Asia Minor in the precious three weeks. But it had not come cheap, Turkish casualties were nearing 49,000 men and now the Greeks were hiding behind the strongest fortifications in the Eastern Mediterranean, over 30 forts backed by heavy artillery were covering the 130 kilometers of the Smyrna line. Now it remained to be seen if the forts had been worth their money.
Patriarchate, Constantinople, March 13th, 1941
Fighting had died down a couple of days ago as the last Greek defenders had died fighting or hidden amid the mass of the Christian population, to be replaced by the inevitable atrocities as 2 decades of repressed hate exacerbated by weeks of heavy house to house fighting boiled over. Patriarch Chrysanthus II had refused to escape Constantinople and leave his flock to their fates. A Turkish army detachment had arrested him a few hours earlier. The military tribunal that had followed had been a formality.
"Chrysanthus Filippidis, Rum patriarch. You have been condemned to death in absentia on charges of high treason by the Amasya Independent Court in 1921. You remain a fugitive since then. You are further condemned by this court to death as a ringleader to the traitorous attempt to annex Istanbul to Greece the past few months. You shall be executed by firing squad, the execution to take place immediately."
"I refuse execution by firing squad" had been Chrysanthus only comment.
"I beg your pardon?" the colonel running the tribunal, had failed to hide his surprise.
"Tradition demands the Christian hierarchs are executed by hanging not by firing squad. I demand to be hanged!"
"So be it then. We won't waste the bullets on you"
Chrysanthus would be put on a noose the same day. George Weller writing for the Chicago Daily News would smuggle out the story and photographs of the execution a week later ironically enough in a DLH passenger plane a week later. It would win him the Pulitzer prize the next year.
Olympus, March 15th, 1941
Sarantaporo fell to the 4th Gebirgs division. The same night a counterattack by the 2/39 Euzone regiment would throw the Germans back. The next day the Germans would attack once more. Attacks and counterattacks would continue with the pass changing hands several times.
Baghdad, Royal Palace. March 16th, 1941
King Ghazi had been forced back in January to replace Rashid Ali as prime minister. He had been quietly fuming and not so quietly plotting since then. The entry of Turkey in the war had opened opportunities but also dangers. It was well known that Turkey in the past had designs on Arab lands. But it was equally well known that Turkey had given aid to Syrian nationalists back in 1925. His House may have rebelled against the Ottoman empire in WW1 but had been part of the Ottoman system before that. What it was to be this time? The Turkish envoy secretly dispatched to Baghdad, was here to offer assurances, Turkey was willing to forego any territorial ambitions in Arab lands and offer alliance as long as the Arabs were willing to cooperate and the position of the Turkish sultan as caliph was not challenged. Ghazi was naturally inclined to the offer as was Amin al-Husseini the exiled grand mufti of Jerusalem. Jamil Mardam also exiled in Baghdad was rather more reluctant. Much like Shukri al-Quwaitli back in Syria he preffered a wait and see stance. The Syrian nationalists had many grudges against France, not least the separation of the Alawites, Kurds and Lebanese from Syria proper. But both al-Quwaitli and Mardam were too clever to blindly trust the Germans or the Turks despite being in contact with both or take British defeat for granted. They'd wait and see. In the meantime Turks and French could go on killing off each other in the border...
Epirus, March 22nd, 1941
The Italian army entered Ioannina. The 22 Italian divisions in the Epirote front were advancing at a snails pace but the Greeks simply did not have sufficient numbers to stop the advance. And unless the Germans were beaten back in Thessaly it was impossible to provide reinforcements.
Sirte, March 24th, 1941
The German attack had start as a reconnaissance in force. Rommel had quickly turned it into all out attack against the British forces, at this point consisting of 4 infantry and 2 armoured brigades with 256 tanks. Sirte fell the same day with the Germans advancing towards El Agheila.
Thessaly, March 28th, 1941
Elasson fell to the Germans. It had been a close run, if the Allied forces had had just a few more days to organize before the German attack on the Olympus they would probably had held. In the end air superiority and luck in the form an inopportune failing of judgement on the of brigadier James Hargest ordering the 5th New Zealand brigade to pull back from her position at the wrong moment had gained the Germans the battle. A furious Pangalos had ordered Hargest immediately removed from command but allied counterattacks had failed to remedy the situation. They had gained the allies time though to retreat in good order. As long as the Germans failed to make any big encirclements and the Allied soldiers retained their will to fight, Greece wasn't exactly short of mountains to offer defensive positions...
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James Hargest, displaying poor judgement and destroying Allied defence of Greece in all TLs...
Shouldn't that be "Istanbul to Greece", instead of "Istanbul to Turkey" ?
I hope that all this time the Allies have managed to fortify Thermopylae for such an occasion. Too bad that the Thessaly front has been breached but as long as there are other positions to hold especially narrower ones defeat has not come. Interesting change the taking of the northern islands. I guess it was made so the Luftwaffe can join in bombing Smyrna as well and stopping any attempt at going for the Romanian oil fields, which was a threat.
Well the German casualties are before even the battle of Thessaly at twice OTL so they have paid a heavy price to take Macedonia. They also have brought up more troops as their allies are not interested in the bigger picture it seems. The problem is the Allied casualties are way higher and more than likely will continue to be higher as air superiority is not challenged. I'm surprised that the Italians managed to take Ioannina even after all this mess. they must have bled a lot to take all the mountains in Epirus.
How is the air war going? Are there any Allied aircrafts left to do any damage or is it all lost? How high are the German-Axis losses?
And even in the middle of the Greek campaign which isn't going as planned the Germans are opening more fronts. I wonder how that will go...
Well the German casualties are before even the battle of Thessaly at twice OTL so they have paid a heavy price to take Macedonia. They also have brought up more troops as their allies are not interested in the bigger picture it seems. The problem is the Allied casualties are way higher and more than likely will continue to be higher as air superiority is not challenged. I'm surprised that the Italians managed to take Ioannina even after all this mess. they must have bled a lot to take all the mountains in Epirus.
How is the air war going? Are there any Allied aircrafts left to do any damage or is it all lost? How high are the German-Axis losses?
And even in the middle of the Greek campaign which isn't going as planned the Germans are opening more fronts. I wonder how that will go...
Oh what an update!
At the most conservative estimation, the Axis need the equivalent of a division to garrison the islands. But considering the importance of the islands to project power over the Straits, the chrome route and a post-June route to the USSR, I think it is more probable to see a whole division in Lemnos and a strong brigade group in Imbros.
In TTL the British have more Centaurs in the front than the Germans have Pz III and Pz IV. The Germans had 95 Pz III & IV in mid April after the 15th Panzer Division arrived. Now that they have only Panzer Regiment V, they have even fewer.
To be honest he is rather lucky: during the OTL Greco-Turkish War, all captured bishops were not executed by hanging nor firing squad. Instead, they were given to the mob to be lynched. These bishops included Gregory of Cydonies, Euthymius of Zelon, Ambrosius of Moschonisia, Procopius of Iconium and Chrysostomus of Smyrna.
What I mean by lynching: in the case of Chrysostomus, both contemporary accounts (Rene Ρuaux, George Horton) and modern research (prof. Βilge Umar) agree that Nureddin Pasha gave the bishop to a mob. The mob proceeded to drag him from the beard and hair in the streets, stabbed his eyes and teared off the limbs from his body. His remains were fed to dogs.
Therefore, as grisly is the fate of the Patriarch, OTL has shown that it could be much worse.
100k men during the three weeks of fighting or since Greece entered the war? I guess it is the former, but since sometime I have poor comprehension skills, better to ask in order to be sure.
While unfortunate in the short term, it will be a boon on the long term. The Germans will find it very difficult to supply their garrisons there. I wonder whether they give the islands to the Turks to garrison or keep them for themselves. In any case, they will be manpower sinkholes, especially since they will need strong garrisons as the Allies enjoy naval supremacy. At the very least, a brigade is needed to occupy Lemnos along with at least an artillery battalion. Imbros and Samothrace need at least a couple of infantry battalions along with some artillery. Tenedos being quite small can be held with a single infantry battalion and a couple coastal batteries.
At the most conservative estimation, the Axis need the equivalent of a division to garrison the islands. But considering the importance of the islands to project power over the Straits, the chrome route and a post-June route to the USSR, I think it is more probable to see a whole division in Lemnos and a strong brigade group in Imbros.
Well, since the Olympus Line has fallen, the next line in Old Greece is Thermopylae. And there, Pangalos will have a very short frontline and many divisions to cover it. I doubt the Germans can go a step further than the Gates. So, Pangalos will be able in the following months to send reserves to Smyrna if needed.
Oh yeah. I believe the two italian armies will have bled white in their effort.
If I understand correctly, the British have 4 infantry and 2 armoured brigades in eastern Cyrenaica/western Tripolitania and not in Sirte itself. If we take into account the OTL Sonnenblume, Sirte will be held with a light force with most formations in the rear (El Agheila).
In TTL the British have more Centaurs in the front than the Germans have Pz III and Pz IV. The Germans had 95 Pz III & IV in mid April after the 15th Panzer Division arrived. Now that they have only Panzer Regiment V, they have even fewer.
That's... intense. And very much in character of Chrysanthus not to abandon his flock and choose the noose. So, yet another hanged patriarch.
To be honest he is rather lucky: during the OTL Greco-Turkish War, all captured bishops were not executed by hanging nor firing squad. Instead, they were given to the mob to be lynched. These bishops included Gregory of Cydonies, Euthymius of Zelon, Ambrosius of Moschonisia, Procopius of Iconium and Chrysostomus of Smyrna.
What I mean by lynching: in the case of Chrysostomus, both contemporary accounts (Rene Ρuaux, George Horton) and modern research (prof. Βilge Umar) agree that Nureddin Pasha gave the bishop to a mob. The mob proceeded to drag him from the beard and hair in the streets, stabbed his eyes and teared off the limbs from his body. His remains were fed to dogs.
Therefore, as grisly is the fate of the Patriarch, OTL has shown that it could be much worse.
I think pangalos will not retreat to Thermopylae per say but just north of lamia with the front starting from the malian gulf and Euboea to mount othris and from there to the gulf of arta because if Aetolia-acarnania id left open the germans could just cross the gulf Corinth and from there capture patras and from there move in to Central greece
He would be there and 2nd NZ division would also be the most fresh allied unit at the time given how it was landed to Greece last and also more mobile than most other units being motorized. Hence its an obvious candidate for strategic reserve/fire-brigade. This has advantages the Kiwis were first class troops... but also means Hargest has increased opportunities to make a mess.James Hargest, displaying poor judgement and destroying Allied defence of Greece in all TLs...
It should, fixed thanks!
The first pull back position is Domokos to the sea. From there you pull back to Thermopylae proper, from there down to Gravia, Chaeronia, Aliartos to reach Thebes. And if that sounds like a whole list of ancient, medieval and Greek revolution battles... why geography is not really nice if you want to invade Greece from the north and your advance is being contested by serious forces.
Makes obvious sense IMO. Otherwise sooner or later you get the allies using the islands to threaten the coast. Besides taking Lemnos aso pus Mudros to Axis hands...
Are they? Not said anything about it. They are certainly higher if you include the Greek army in Thrace granted. Axis air superiority does not help granted.
They have about 440,000 men pushing against fewer than ~130,000. Mountains and superior training is one thing. Being outnumbered more than three to one by an enemy with air superiority another...
Oh it has been WAY more contested than OTL. The allies start out in February with slightly over 700 machines and reasonably modern ones at that. About half have been lost so far, they have destroyed about 250 Axis aircraft in turn.
The Germans at the moment have no reason nt to increase the pressure on the British in the Middle East...
"More popcorn please!"
The wording is important here "But allied casualties had been much higher, intelligence was estimating that". How accurate German Military Intelligence actually is... is left as an exercise to the reader.
Mudros make a logical forward deployment point for the Turkish navy... as long as it is coupled with Axis air superiority in the North Aegean.
In 1941? Likely note. In 1942-43? It obviously depends on what happens further south.
Assuming central Greece DOES hold. And Smyrna also both holds and does not starve.
As a single note, assuming the Greeks stood no matter what to the North of Ioannina what would happen when the right flank of the German-Italian advance in Macedonia cut off Metsovo?
Yes.
In OTL at this point they had 212 tanks available but including 60 captured M11 tanks. Remove these add 104 Centaurs from the armoured brigade that did not go to Greece...
Truth to tell I stole the line from archibshop Damaskinos of Athens who told as much to the German occupation authorities...
20 years in peacetime have passed TTL. The third fall of Constantinople is anything but a clean affair, take the 1955 pogroms and turn it up to 11 with an army that just spent 3 weeks and lost 20,000 men fighting house by house thrown in for good measure but it is... less spontaneous so to speak.
The British called the whole thing the Thermopylae position in OTL without it being actually Thermopylae...
That's... easier on the map than done. Sey the Italians and Germans do reach the gulf of Corinth. Now they need to cross it to the to Peloponnese and then keep in supply a drive from Patras east. The Peloponnese is pretty much like an island...
Appendix Turkish army February 1941
Order of Battle
GHQ (Sivas, marshal Fevzi Cakmak)
8 K39 210mm guns
20 K39 150mm guns
8 Skoda M14 150mm howirzer
16 sFH 13 150mm howitzer
21 sFHb 98 150mm howitzer
44 M1910 152mm howitzer
8 150mm Krup mortars
50 Krupp 120mm guns
70 Krupp 120mm howitzers
16 Type 38 107mm guns
56 SK18 105mm guns
6 K14 105mm guns
16 4.5in howitzer
132 Skoda M1916 100mm howitzer
136 leFH 18 105mm howitzer
115 FH 98 & leFH 16 105mm howitzer
8 Krupp 105mm mountain guns
128 GebG 36 75mm mountain guns
232 Bofors M1928 75mm mountain guns
187 Skoda & Krupp 75mm field and mountain guns
Infantry weapons
287,000 Vz24 7.92mm rifles
188,207 Mauser 7.92mm rifles
100,000 Mauser 7.65mm rifles
20,000 Mosin Nagant 7.62mm rifles
3,258 ZB50 & ZB53 MG
600 MG08 MG
17,800 ZB26 LMG
336 MG15 LMG
200 8cm GrW 34 mortars
Anti-Tank guns
124 Pak 36 37mm
AA guns
39 Flak 18 88mm
66 Flak 36 37mm
108 Flak 38 20mm
Tanks
79 Panzer 38(t)
26 LT vz36
GHQ (Sivas, marshal Fevzi Cakmak)
- 1st Army (Western Anatolia, Fahrettin Altay)
- III Corps
- 1 Infantry Division
- 7 Infantry Division
- 24 Infantry Division
- 61 Infantry Division
- IV Corps
- 23 Infantry Division
- 41 Infantry Division
- 57 Infantry Division
- 3 Cavalry Division
- X Corps
- 4 Infantry Division
- 5 Infantry Division
- 20 Infantry Division
- Tank Brigade
- III Corps
- 2nd Army (North-West Anatolia, Kazim Orbay)
- I Corps
- 10 Infantry Division
- 22 Infantry Division
- 25 Infantry Division
- II Corps
- 28 Infantry Division
- 29 Infantry Division
- 32 Infantry Division
- V Corps
- 33 Infantry Division
- 39 Infantry Division
- VI Corps (Thrace)
- 46 Infantry Division
- 48 Infantry Division
- 51 Infantry Division
- 52 Infantry Division
- I Corps
- 3rd Army (Caucasus, Izzetin Calislar)
- VIII Corps
- 8 Infantry Division
- 12 Infantry Division
- 15 Infantry Division
- IX Corps
- 16 Infantry Division
- 17 Infantry Division
- 1 Cavalry Division
- XV Corps
- 3 Infantry Division
- 9 Infantry Division
- 11 Infantry Division
- VIII Corps
- Southern Front (Nafiz Gürman)
- XII Corps (Syria)
- 2 Infantry Division
- 53 Infantry Division
- 62 Infantry Division
- 14 Cavalry Division
- 26 Infantry Brigade
- VII Corps (Diyarbakir)
- 63 Infantry Division
- 64 Infantry Division
- XII Corps (Syria)
8 K39 210mm guns
20 K39 150mm guns
8 Skoda M14 150mm howirzer
16 sFH 13 150mm howitzer
21 sFHb 98 150mm howitzer
44 M1910 152mm howitzer
8 150mm Krup mortars
50 Krupp 120mm guns
70 Krupp 120mm howitzers
16 Type 38 107mm guns
56 SK18 105mm guns
6 K14 105mm guns
16 4.5in howitzer
132 Skoda M1916 100mm howitzer
136 leFH 18 105mm howitzer
115 FH 98 & leFH 16 105mm howitzer
8 Krupp 105mm mountain guns
128 GebG 36 75mm mountain guns
232 Bofors M1928 75mm mountain guns
187 Skoda & Krupp 75mm field and mountain guns
Infantry weapons
287,000 Vz24 7.92mm rifles
188,207 Mauser 7.92mm rifles
100,000 Mauser 7.65mm rifles
20,000 Mosin Nagant 7.62mm rifles
3,258 ZB50 & ZB53 MG
600 MG08 MG
17,800 ZB26 LMG
336 MG15 LMG
200 8cm GrW 34 mortars
Anti-Tank guns
124 Pak 36 37mm
AA guns
39 Flak 18 88mm
66 Flak 36 37mm
108 Flak 38 20mm
Tanks
79 Panzer 38(t)
26 LT vz36
A few questions:
- Has there been any evacuation efforts started? It looks obvious Smyrna to everyone, it seems, is overcrowded. Besides the difficulties of evacuating under threat of air raids, do the Greeks at least try? And where to relocate them? Peloponnese or Crete? I mind that if Crete is to be turned into a last bastion susceptible to be besieged from the airs, it has to be not too overcrowded.
- When is the moment, circumstance, line the Germans have to cross, assuming there are contingency plans to that effect, before Pangalos and Dragoumis decide it's time to begin evacuate machine tools and skilled personnel in anticipation of the fall of mainland Greece?
- Now, by comparison to OTL, and as you pointed out, there is strong potential for Peloponnese to be turned into a de facto island fortress, like Crete, since there are much more forces and resources available ITTL. I remember you cited the agricultural production numbers of Greek regions ITTL, so here, how many people, military and civilians alike, do you think Peloponnese and Crete can support?
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11 divisions, 1 brigade
12 divisions
9 divisions
6 divisions, 1 brigade
38 divisions and 2 brigades in total. I don't suppose there is much of anything known about the abilities of theses commanders.
1,277 guns of 9 different calibers.
So an absolute maximum of under 600,000 infantry.
Are these submachine guns? If not, Turkey has none.
Question: has Britain made any air attacks on the interior of Turkey?
Of course there is
Fevzi Çakmak - Wikipedia
Fahrettin Altay - Wikipedia
Kâzım Orbay - Wikipedia
İzzettin Çalışlar - Wikipedia
Nafiz Gürman - Wikipedia
Vary from very good to excellent in the case of Cakmak and Fahrettin.
By comparison in 1939 the Turkish army had at hand 730,000 rifles and was short ~150,000 for the 150,000 it planned to mobilize. By 1941 it had received 25,000 rifles from France while domestic production was reaching a maximum of 100 per day.
Heavy machine guns. To compare OTL with TTL to the extend possible
| OTL | TTL | |
| Rifles | 755000 | 595207 |
| LMG | 24000 | 18136 |
| Machine guns | 6250 | 3858 |
| Mortars | 200 | 200 |
| AT guns | 290 | 124 |
| AA guns | 148 | 249 |
| Artillery pieces | 1563 | 1277 |
| Tanks | 212 | 105 |
At this point they are negligible. The Turkish air force has start the war with 360 aircraft and there is an additional Italian force of 43 aircraft. There are about 80 Greek aircraft in Ionia and another 86 French ones in Syria opposing them.
For civilians the obvious first point to run away to is the East Aegean islands, Lesbos and Chios in particular are right off the coast.
Not yet. Wilson is probably making noises for a possible evacuations by this point. Pangalos... his army has taken heavy casualties but aside from losing the units in Thrace which he expected but could not afford to do anything about for political reasons, has yet to collapse.
Between them they had a population of 1.6 million in OTL. Lower actually TTL at 1.525 million.