Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

I think it is quite possible to hold Mo-i-Rana even if France falls. First of all, the front will be quite small - 14km as the crow flies (I take the lake in consideration as well). The mountainous terrain of the area is also great for defence.
Closer to 30 I think, it's northern Norway the lake freezes over. Two-three divisions would be able to strongly hold it. Which means effectively frontal assaults and attrition...

Since Narvik has fallen, there is a great political imperative for Britain to show its support. As I see it, success increases political commitment to Norway and at the same time it is more difficult due internal british politics to give up the only gain without a battle. "Under Chamberlain Narvik was conquered, the fresh Churchill government gave it up without a battle". It doesn't look well for Winston who was both a bellicose bulldog and was trying to also be seen as such.
From Trondtheim to Mo-i-Rana it is 474km. That's at least two weeks before any further fighting takes place.

To hold the line there is the Norwegian 6th division. We haven't heard of the fate of the 5th division. Perhaps elements of it managed to retreat along the Allies. There is also a chance for parts of the 2nd and 4th divisions to be saved as well. The 2nd had 3 regiments and the 4th just two.
Actually you have...

I do believe that supplying northern Norway will be much easier compared to the Malta Convoys. Geography dictates it. Moreover, it will be a challenge for the Germans as well to supply a Norwegian Campaign in the long term. Everything they need will have to come via the sea. There is a short route via the Skagerrak were they can defence more easily again british submarines and mines- although even that will be bloody. But as in OTL, the Germans will have to run coastal convoys up the norwegian coast- in RN and Coastal Command's backyard.
In the short term German air power proved reasonably successful in Norway. But Mo-i-Rana to Narvik is still several hundrend km. If the allies try to hold there will be multiple defensive positions...

Oh yes I totally agree. I just think that with the French surrender and Britain under direct attack and serious fear on land invasion they would need every available man. The Norwegians though can be buffed up and supplied well to resist and keep the line but that depends on German commitment. I mean the Germans have a year till the start of Barbarossa they can spare some division to close the Norway front to secure the Swedish steel that is vital to their war effort and here is the problem. The Germans won't stop attacking till they get that precious metal, without it they can't continue on schedule and they would need Barbarossa sooner.
IF France falls the Germans also gain the Lorraine iron deposits. Which makes the need for Swedish iron considerably lower.

Don't forget that IOTL the British after Dunkirk did have men but they lacked massively in equipment. If they don't have equipment fo themselves, how are they going to equip the Norwegians?
That's a temporary problem of course...

@Lascaris we are at May 10th. May I ask if the RN got their head out of their behinds and sent the AFD no 8 to Alexandria?

AFD no 5 could take ships up to 31,500 tons, so the Queen Elizabeths and Rs could be supported after they got a bit lighter. But idiotically keeping AFD no 8 in Malta meant that Alexandria could not host any bigger battleship during the war.
Which is all true... but why the Brits should get their heads off their posterior TTL? You have the Italian battleships in service of course but I'm not entirely certain the British will altering their reaction to them just on account of the Italian ships being 16 instead of 15in armed. Of course there's one more floating dock in the Eastern Mediterranean TTL... although it's not British. :angel:
 
Part 58
Western Europe, May 10th, 1940

The German army was at last on the move. Paratroopers had been dropped in targets in Belgium and Holland just as 136 divisions with 2,366 tanks. Opposing them were arrayed just as many allied divisions, 92 of then French, 2 Polish, 10 British, 22 Belgian and 10 Dutch, with more tanks, just the French had available 3,254 tanks, and nearly twice the artillery of the German army. The only notable German advantage was in the air as the Luftwaffe had available in total 3,782 aircraft, including 119 Do-19 heavy bombers [1] most of which were deployed in the offensive to the west against about 3,000 allied aircraft. But as the 45 divisions of German Army Group A advanced against the Ardennes and 30 more of Army Group B into Belgium and Holland, it start to look as if numbers weren't everything...

Holland, May 14th, 1940

The Dutch army surrendered. Only units in Zealand would fight on for three more days before surrendering as well. The Dutch army with 280,000 men had been massively outnumbered, as the Germans had brought 750,000 men against it and the French 7th army that had rushed to the Dutch support had been pushed back by the Germans. With the Dutch "New Water line" fortifications breached by German paratroopers and following mass air bombing against Rotterdam further resistance had been deemed impossible. The only Dutch success in five days of fighting had been causing heavy casualties to both German transport aircraft and paratroopers. The Dutch navy and government escaped to Britain to fight on...

Sedan, May 15th, 1940

German panzers broke through the French lines. Sedan itself had already been captured in May 12th. with bridgeheads the Muse established the next day and French counterattacks failing to dislodge them. Within five days Guderian's troops would reach the English channel..

Gembloux, May 15th, 1940

The German XVI Panzer corps spearheading the German invasion of the Low Countries was stopped cold in two days of fighting by elements of the French 1st army. But with the French front broken at Sedan, little could be done to take advantage of the success.

Paris, May 17th, 1940

Repeated attempts to remove Maurice Gamelin from the head of the French army had failed, even precipitating political crisis within the French government. The disaster unfolding to the north of France had done him in though leading to his dismissal with Maxime Weygand brought in from Syria to take his place. The next day Philippe Petain would be brought from Madrid where he served as ambassador to Ochoa's government to become deputy prime minister.

Montcornet, May 17th, 1940

When two months earlier Paul Reynaud had become prime minister it had been proposed to make Charles De Gaulle secretary general of the French war council but his was too fragile to afford a non politician in the position. De Gaulle had been given command of the new 4e DCR instead. His division was still forming but with the allied situation becoming desperate, it was thrown right away into battle. In three day's of fighting De Gaulle's troops would push back the Germans despite enemy air superiority and the French high command refusing them reinforcements and ordering De Gaulle to withdraw, orders which De Gaulle promptly refused.

Mo-i-Rana, May 17th, 1940

The German 2nd mountain division attacked. But by now Claude Auchinleck, the commander of the allied North Western Expeditionary Force had managed to ship most of the force that had captured Narvik south. A single division attacking frontally against a numerically superior force was not enough to break the allied defences. It was enough to tie them down over the following weeks as German reinforcements marched north...

Dunkirk, May 26th, 1940

Allied counterattack in Arras on the 21st had failed to break the German encirclement. Boulogne had fallen to the Germans on the 25th. Calais had followed on the 26th. Only Dunkirk was left but Dunkirk held. And if Ares preferred the Germans, Poseidon was not as fickle. Britain had lived with and by the sea for centuries. It proved it once more as the Royal Navy ships moving to evacuate British and French solders were joined by hundreds of ships from merchantmen to fishing trawlers to private boats. The Germans could throw perhaps the allies to the sea. But the sea would never belong to them...

Abbeville, May 27th, 1940

French and British forces, spearheaded by the French 4e DCR counter-attacked against the German bridgehead south of the Somme. By May 31st De Gaulle's troops had managed to completely reduce the bridgehead, inflicting severe casualties on the German 57th Infantry division although attempts to cross the Somme failed and the allies lost over 250 tanks in the fighting. But it still was a victory, one of only a handful so far...

Dunkirk, June 4th, 1940

The last evacuation ship, left Dunkirk. In nine days the allies had managed to evacuate 352,793 men including 137,662 French soldiers. Slightly over 25,000 French soldiers were left behind and forced to surrender. But still the evacuation was a massive success...

Paris, June 5th, 1940


Charles De Gaulle was made assistant secretary of war despite objections by both Petain and Weygand. But all their objections could not change the fact that De Gaulle was the sole French commander in mainland France to score some actual victories in the past month...

Somme, June 5th, 1940

Fall Rot, the second face of the invasion of France begun. By now 64 much reduced French divisions had to fight against 142 German divisions that also enjoyed air superiority. The German army quicly begun gaining ground with general Weygand and Petain starting to pressure their own government to ask the Germans for an armistice. And still German casualties per day were actually much higher than during the first phase of the invasion...

Rome, June 10th, 1940

Italy declared war against Britain and France. It was true that the Italian armed forces were not ready for war at the moment. But France was collapsing and Britain surely would not fight on alone. Italy just needed a few victories and a few casualties for the peace conference...

[1] German numbers are slightly inferior to OTL where they had 2,442 tanks and 3,961 aircraft between somewhat higher casualties in Poland and the increased costs of Do-19...
 
352,793 men including 137,662 French soldiers
If I remember correctly, in OTL slightly more than 100,000 French were saved. Now they are significantly more. And all of them soldiers from the best french armies.

French and British forces, spearheaded by the French 4e DCR counter-attacked against the German bridgehead south of the Somme. By May 31st De Gaulle's troops had managed to completely reduce the bridgehead, inflicting severe casualties on the German 57th Infantry division although attempts to cross the Somme failed and the allies lost over 250 tanks in the fighting. But it still was a victory, one of only a handful so far...
An actual victory in Abbeville where de Gaulle destroys the bridgehead. More prestige for the tenacious general.

Can you smell it people? I smell a France Fights On.

The Luftwaffe has fewer aircraft and France has more good fighters compared to OTL (LN-161). It makes only sense that the Luftwaffe will take worse casualties compared to OTL. Perhaps they will be even less successful in bombing the ports - compared to the original France Fights On story. More French soldiers to escape and continue the fight!
 
And now the Greeks liberate Albania from Italian oppression my friend

And so the dominos begin to fall, has Greece begun mobilization? Considering Italy is in a state of war officially, I'd say mobilization was due yesterday!
 
And now the Greeks march into Albania ?
Do they? Stay tuned...

Go De Gaulle! Seems like France will still fall, but the Germans will have an even rougher time of it than OTL.
The French are doing slightly better so far, but unfortunately not enough to make a real difference... in the fighting.

If I remember correctly, in OTL slightly more than 100,000 French were saved. Now they are significantly more. And all of them soldiers from the best french armies.
123,095 according to British admiralty. Most of them were quickly shipped back to France though. What I haven't seen is actual numbers about how many were still in Britain at the time of the armistice.

An actual victory in Abbeville where de Gaulle destroys the bridgehead. More prestige for the tenacious general.
What you'd think I'm a fan of De Gaulle, or something. :angel:

Can you smell it people? I smell a France Fights On.

The Luftwaffe has fewer aircraft and France has more good fighters compared to OTL (LN-161). It makes only sense that the Luftwaffe will take worse casualties compared to OTL. Perhaps they will be even less successful in bombing the ports - compared to the original France Fights On story. More French soldiers to escape and continue the fight!
They have been less successful enough for nearly 15,000 more troops to escape Dunkink. That said the Luftwaffe is also at least somewhat more efficient thanks to Wever and a more healthy Goring (although it's an open question if that's better or worse for the overall German war effort. When all is said and done the top Nazis are a bunch of competing feudal lords each of them trying to maximize his own empire. Herman was bad enough when he was fat and shot up on morphine. How much worse is he at full capacity?) which evens things out to an extend.

And now the Greeks liberate Albania from Italian oppression my friend

And so the dominos begin to fall, has Greece begun mobilization? Considering Italy is in a state of war officially, I'd say mobilization was due yesterday!
Idle note, a general mobilization will be likely costing 2.5% of GDP per month. Think of the economy! :p
 
I genuinely hoped for the Italians not to be the baddies is this timeline (once more, like at the start of the story), but really despite all the butterflies there was not much to make Italian neutrality a possibility during this alt-WWII. Looking at the bright side, Rhodes and minor territorial corrections along the Greek-Albanian border definitely look nice (although most likely not worth Greece being ravaged by the war). Once again the "Latins" are going to prove themselves a thorn in the side for the empire hellenic republic.
 
Wait if the evacuation at Dunkirk lasts 5 more days could they save some equipment from abandonment?
Hooray for De Gaul!! Though France will fall he might evacuate with him more men due to increased prestige from victories and maybe he later manages to gain the loyalty of the fleet admirals for the Free French.
A Greek attack on Albania is discussed before and it has a lot of risks, as triggering a Turkish and maybe even a Bulgarian attack while the Yugoslavians are not committed at all.
The extra expense that was mentioned is manageable for the short term.
Rhodes and minor territorial corrections along the Greek-Albanian border definitely look nice (although most likely not worth Greece being ravaged by the war)
THIS! It is soo true. But territorial expansion always comes at a price and people of the time were far more aggressive. Also I think Constantinople is going to be Greek plus some of Caria , but still your point stands cause this war is not going to be gentle on the Greek people.
 
and a more healthy Goring (although it's an open question if that's better or worse for the overall German war effort. When all is said and done the top Nazis are a bunch of competing feudal lords each of them trying to maximize his own empire. Herman was bad enough when he was fat and shot up on morphine. How much worse is he at full capacity?) which evens things out to an extend.
I agree. Perhaps a healthy Herman evens out completely the differences, or worse. Tactis and utilization of material is one thing and Wever can help there. But tactics is the tip of the iceberg: organization of a war-time economy and resource allocation is the underlying iceberg. And a healthy active Herman can muck it up much worse than OTL.

Also I think Constantinople is going to be Greek plus some of Caria , but still your point stands cause this war is not going to be gentle on the Greek people.
I agree on Caria: I expect the Greeks to use the same argument as in OTL 1919 that the anatolian shore and the adjacent islands constitute a single economic/political unit. So, the whoe of Caria can be annexed. The local bauxite and the Marmaris naval base will make it a good investment.

But I am not so sure about Constantinople... Months ago the author mentioned that christian and muslim celebrations occur at the same time at 1974. And the current deal is for each community to use Hagia Sophia during their own holy days. That brief mention is very interesting. I expect a screw-up to occur on that date. But if Constantinople was annexed to Greece after WW2, would Greece continue honor the initial agreement after a long, brutal war that probably has seen the athnic cleansing of the Asia Minor christian population? I doubt so. I think that the author is preparing us for a post-WW2 International State of Constantinople, perhaps over soviet anxieties.
 
would Greece continue honor the initial agreement after a long, brutal war that probably has seen the athnic cleansing of the Asia Minor christian population?
Maybe they are forced to do so they can take the City. So the same premise can exist under Greek administration sparking the same situation as you mentioned. The Soviets accepted Turkey OTL which was neutral in WW2 why would they disagree with the Greek overtake if checks and balances are agreed to something of a Bosporus convention as OTL. Though TTL they may look at international control as better for their interests but this is up to Greek diplomats to change their mind or make an agreement.
 
A Greek attack on Albania is discussed before and it has a lot of risks, as triggering a Turkish and maybe even a Bulgarian attack while the Yugoslavians are not committed at all.
I have to wonder if the Yugoslavs will commit, along with the rest of the Balkan Entende. Admittedly that is an anti-Bulgarian pact, but Italy is a rival of Greece, and friendly with Turkey. And Italy does have aspirations against Yugoslavia.

Oh, wait. Greece has a treaty which requires them to get involved if war breaks out in the Mediterranean with Britain and France. Italy just got involved and started a war in the Med. And it was the last act of Venizelos so a most of his supporters would want it to be honoured. Plus the Italians are a hostile nation.

And if Greece gets involved, the Turks are going to jump in on the Axis's side. Will that pull the Balkan Entende in? Maybe, maybe not. If Bulgaria jumps in though, then it definately will. The Balkan Alliance was set up to stop them, after all.
 
I agree on Caria: I expect the Greeks to use the same argument as in OTL 1919 that the anatolian shore and the adjacent islands constitute a single economic/political unit. So, the whoe of Caria can be annexed. The local bauxite and the Marmaris naval base will make it a good investment.
They can but that's an argument with certain dangers. The whole dormer Italian concession had about 54,000 Greeks and 238,000 Turks in 1920. Add the Dodecanese and there is still a 60% Turkish majority. And someone should remember that Soviet dominated Bulgaria prior to the Paris peace conference was actually making territorial demands on Greece...

But I am not so sure about Constantinople... Months ago the author mentioned that christian and muslim celebrations occur at the same time at 1974. And the current deal is for each community to use Hagia Sophia during their own holy days. That brief mention is very interesting. I expect a screw-up to occur on that date. But if Constantinople was annexed to Greece after WW2, would Greece continue honor the initial agreement after a long, brutal war that probably has seen the athnic cleansing of the Asia Minor christian population? I doubt so. I think that the author is preparing us for a post-WW2 International State of Constantinople, perhaps over soviet anxieties.
Geographically the League city consists of three rather distinct parts TTL. The European and the Asian parts of the City itself of course and the sanjak of Biga on the Asian shore of the Dardanelles. What happens to any of them will of course depend on what happens between now and 1945..

I have to wonder if the Yugoslavs will commit, along with the rest of the Balkan Entende. Admittedly that is an anti-Bulgarian pact, but Italy is a rival of Greece, and friendly with Turkey. And Italy does have aspirations against Yugoslavia.
France has just collapsed. Assume that the Balkan Entente commits to war. All three nations. Forget the Italians, Bulgarians, Hungarians and Turks. Forget the Soviets. How do you hold back the Germans?
Oh, wait. Greece has a treaty which requires them to get involved if war breaks out in the Mediterranean with Britain and France. Italy just got involved and started a war in the Med. And it was the last act of Venizelos so a most of his supporters would want it to be honoured. Plus the Italians are a hostile nation.
True Greece has a treaty... just as Turkey had in OTL. Whether it holds to the letter of it while the Germans appear to be mauling France...
 
True Greece has a treaty... just as Turkey had in OTL. Whether it holds to the letter of it while the Germans appear to be mauling France...
The situation is different I would say. Italy has been rather belligerent towards Greece, and very friendly with Turkey. Whom are the main enemy Greece has. Add in that Germany is also friendly with Turkey... Well, I'm sure a lot of greeks can see writing on that wall. So they are going to be at least contemplating jumping in if only due to the fact that if the French and British fail, they might be next. Jumping into the war now means that the British (and nearby French forces) will at least support them when Turkey inevitably attacks. Plus those Polish forces in Constantinople....

France has just collapsed. Assume that the Balkan Entente commits to war. All three nations. Forget the Italians, Bulgarians, Hungarians and Turks. Forget the Soviets. How do you hold back the Germans?
Yeah, probably not then. Although I believe Germany would be in trouble if Yugoslavia can throw an army North. I seem to recall they don't have much reserves at all right now. Of course, everyone is sure Germany wouldn't be crazy enough to not keep a reserve right? That would just be stupid.
 
And someone should remember that Soviet dominated Bulgaria prior to the Paris peace conference was actually making territorial demands on Greece...
Nothing against Bulgaria, but it would have been quite a farce to force one of the winning countries of WWII (and furthermore an unwilling participant of it) to cede land to a defeated one (although Bulgaria was probably the least committed nation of the Axis side).
 
They can but that's an argument with certain dangers. The whole dormer Italian concession had about 54,000 Greeks and 238,000 Turks in 1920. Add the Dodecanese and there is still a 60% Turkish majority. And someone should remember that Soviet dominated Bulgaria prior to the Paris peace conference was actually making territorial demands on Greece...
By the end of the war, the situation on the ground and national interests will determine the post-war order. Same as in OTL. One can guess the greek post-war demands: Dodecanese, Caria, a more defensible border with Bulgaria across the Ardas River, all three parts of the State of Constantinople and noises about Cyprus.

I think it will also depend if the whole of Greece falls and if there will be a greek army left. During the Interwar, Greece has been a close partner/ client of the Entente. I doubt Greece will commit suicide by delcaring war right now to be ganged by Italy, Turkey, Bulgaria and Germany. But sooner all later, war will come and Greece will be a Allied nation. I believe that in TTL Greece will be seen as a much more important wartime partner and a much better post-war stewart of western interests in the region.

If anything, I could see the Soviets trying to steer greek demands towards Caria instead of Constantinople. Or at least against greek control of all three parts of Constantinople. It will depend of course on what happens on the ground until the end of the war, but barring a greek army liberating Constantinople and having boots on the ground, I find a greek Caria and a border at Ardas, an easier development that full sovereignty over the State of Constantinople.

Nothing against Bulgaria, but it would have been quite a farce to force one of the winning countries of WWII (and furthermore an unwilling participant of it) to cede land to a defeated one (although Bulgaria was probably the least committed nation of the Axis side).
Well, that's realpolitik for you...
Soviet interests in the Balkans were better served by an augmentation of the clients established by the Red Army's might.
 
Yeah, probably not then. Although I believe Germany would be in trouble if Yugoslavia can throw an army North. I seem to recall they don't have much reserves at all right now. Of course, everyone is sure Germany wouldn't be crazy enough to not keep a reserve right? That would just be stupid.
Yugoslavia at the time needed 3 weeks to mobilize. How many divisions can the Germans switch over rail in three weeks time? Assuming the Yugoslavs do mobilize, in view of initiating operations how the Croatian population will react? In 1941 they did not take particularly well to this despite the earlier Cvetkovic-Macek agreement and TTL the Yugoslav internal situation is if anything at least a bit worse than OTL given how the royal dictatorship went on for longer than OTL...

By the end of the war, the situation on the ground and national interests will determine the post-war order. Same as in OTL. One can guess the greek post-war demands: Dodecanese, Caria, a more defensible border with Bulgaria across the Ardas River, all three parts of the State of Constantinople and noises about Cyprus.
More or less. Some also demanded Yugoslav territory, Monastir to be exact but Greece officially avoided such demands. Same to the not at all serious thoughts circulating in Athenian circles during the war about Cyrenaica. The Bulgarian claims are going to be... interesting TTL. The territory in question was overwhelmingly Muslim and certainly Turkish Muslims there won't be particularly happy about joining Greece, if Turkey entered the war, it means in effect an one way trip to Turkey, even though they won't be really happy with being part of Bulgaria. Pomaks now... will be a more interesting question, much like the Circassians they were exempted from the population exchange. It all depends how compromised they become... or don't become during the war.
 
Part 59
Constantinople, June 11th, 1940

Since its occupation in 1919, Britain, France and Italy had divided the city into three zones with the Italians holding the Asian side, the French the old city and the British Pera and Galata. Perhaps naturally the Italians had tended to turn a blind eye to Turkish activities and the British and French to Greek activities but despite tensions and the occasional riot the past two decades had been relatively easy on the queen of cities. This was about to change as French and British ships sailed out of the Golden Horn, followed by hundreds of small boats and ferries, commandeered locally, volunteered might had been a more accurate word for their mostly Greek owners, full of French, Polish and British soldiers. The Italian garrison, 10,000 men and four infantry battalions of the 62º Reggimento fanteria "Sicilia" had already dug in, in their zone in anticipation of possible hostilities but the allied forces in Constantinople and the straits area, numbered more than 75,000 men. Under cover of the ships guns the allies quickly established bridgeheads on the Asian shore and start pushing inwards.

E2fsNOZXMAcy7Nh.jpg

Allied troops in one of the mostly Greek neighbourhoods of Constantinople.

Alps, June 11th, 1940

22 Italian divisions, 4 of them Alpini attacked over the French border. General Olry the French commander in the area had only 4 divisions available. But they were enough. Over the next several days the Italian army would gain nearly no ground, despite suffering over 3,000 casualties. Mussolini would have to find his victory elsewhere...

Sivas, June 12th, 1940

The French and British ambassadors received the summons to the Turkish foreign ministry with some dread, fearing a declaration of war. The Turks had proved subtler. Instead the two ambassadors had been informed that in view of the current hostilities in Constantinople recklessly putting in danger the Turkish population and its property the Turkish government was forced to take action. Turkish troops were already in the move to occupy the Asian side of the city and Turkey was unilaterally rescinding her concession of administration rights to former allied powers. Italy, the allies were further informed had already agreed, to the Turkish ultimatum and Italian troops in Constantinople would be interned. France and Britain had a day to accept and to pull their soldiers back to the European side otherwise the Turkish army would remove them by force.

Uskudar, June 13th, 1940

Soldiers of the 11th Infantry division, paraded through the streets of Uskudar amidst throngs of jubilant Turkish civilians, Greeks and Armenians were quickly slipping over the Bosporus while there was still time to do so. It had been a closer run than many in the jubilant crowds might had suspected. Churchill's first reaction had been to push back when receiving the Turkish ultimatum. But the last thing the French government wanted at the moment had been one more hostile power and even within Britain there had been strong pressure to appease Turkey, after all the British strategic position would be little affected by Turkey taking over the former Italian zone but would significantly affected by Turkey joining the war.

Athens, June 14th, 1940

The French defeat was the say the least a shock to the Greek political and military establishment, even following the destruction of Poland the last thing anyone expected was for France to collapse within a month of the German offensive in the west. Italy joining the war had made things even worse although many in Athens and Belgrade had let a sigh of relief, since the feared Italy would attack east without declaring war on the western powers. There had been debate in Athens when Italy joined the war, whether Greece should join the fight even with France being clearly defeated. All such thoughts though had ended when France and Turkey let Turkey occupy Asiatic Constantinople. If the allies where clearly not willing to stand up to Turkey, Greece had no reason to join them and risk destruction. Greece would stay for now neutral. And something had to be done about Constantinople. Before the English gave the European side to the Turk as well...

Ligurian sea, June 14th, 1940

Three French heavy cruisers and 11 destroyers opened up against targets on the Italian coast around Genoa before being unsuccessfully engaged by Italian coastal forces, while the Force De Raid was providing distant cover to the bombarding force. Despite reluctance on the part of admiral Cavagnari, the Italian navy's commander the newly completed Littorio and Vittorio Veneto were ordered out of La Spezia to try to intercept the French fleet. The Italian navy with 4 active battleships was severely outnumbered by the French and British who had nine, thus particularly reluctant to engage its more numerous enemy. But Mussolini needed a fight. If the army could not provide him with a good enough fight then the navy should, after all Littorio and Vittorio Veneto had been loudly proclaimed the strongest ships in the world, surely they could deal with older or smaller French ships? Otherwise what was the point on the huge amounts spent on the navy if France, on the brink of disaster could be bombarding the Italian coast as will?

The Italians fail to catch up with the raiding force, but do catch up with the Force de Raid. Or admiral Gensoul, with four battleships at hand and confident from the earlier sinking of the Deutschland, takes his chances and accepts battle with the Italians, Gensoul in the aftermath of the battle will keep silent to the end of his days. Either way things quickly turn sour for the French as Provence, suffers a catastrophic explosion and sinks with over a thousand sailors killed. Dunkerque hit by four 16in shells is severely damaged but survives. Strasbourg under captain Collinet, will successfully cover the retiring Dunkerque, while the Italians with Littorio having suffered some damage from 330mm fire will not press home the attack saving the French from war. The Force de Raid retires to Toulon...

Bordeaux, June 16th, 1940


Prime minister Paul Reynaud was all for France fighting on, from the empire. But he had made the mistake, not to remove Petain from his cabinet as De Gaulle had advised. Or perhaps he had been unable to do so. Either way Petain backed by Weygand and Darlan had pressed for an armistice instead and his opinion had prevailed. Reynaud would resign, replaced by Petain the next day. And Petain would ask for an armistice. Of the people opposing the armistice Georges Mandel would refuse to escape to Britain, leaving only Charles De Gaulle to go on fighting.

Compiegne, June 22nd, 1940

The armistice between Germany and France was signed in the very train wagon the 1918 armistice had been signed. Now it was to be seen who in the French empire would accept Petain's regime and who would join De Gaulle's Free France...
 
I think that the Battle of the Ligurian Sea is going to prove significant.
I wouldn't be surprised if it led to either Noguès deciding the honor of France isn't safe and joining with the Free French, leading to a De Gaulle government-in-exile in Alger instead of London (which would have a lot more legitimacy and would naturally sweep up the Empire), or the Force de Raid joining the Free French and avoiding Mers El-Kébir, which did sour the French on the English.
Either way both possibilities are boosts to the Free French inside France proper.
 
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