Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

Well — what is going to be the territorial extent of this Cantonese state, then? And how will its ruling class stop themselves from dreaming to conquer more than that — and from there — the rest of China?
 
I can see a Cantonese state or Hokkien state based on those ethnicities and languages and so on.
Fifty-fifty - the fact is that when the Celestial Empire split, it was the borders of administrative units or military districts that played the primary role. That is, new formations can be obtained not along ethno-linguistic boundaries.
 
Well — what is going to be the territorial extent of this Cantonese state, then? And how will its ruling class stop themselves from dreaming to conquer more than that — and from there — the rest of China?
Probably at most the south.

There could be a few ways they're prevented from wanting to unify. Having allies in Shanghai who nonetheless don't want to be part of the Cantonese state due to having a trade rivalry would be cool.

They could be prevented from conquest due to many factors. Not having armies that overmatch each other and the presence of Joseon and Japan as patrons of various states would work.
 
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Probably at least the south.
The Chinese South is a very big economic and tax base that threatens to easily subjugate its surrounding environs too easily, let alone when it's described as vaguely as that. What south? Just the Pearl River's Delta? the entire river itself? having a border up to the Yangtze?

The wakes of destruction that the Chinese wars caused led to the popularity of the Chinese imperial government and its golden ages, even if it can be said that those were just temporary respites from the dynastic cycle that it likewise made for. The guarantees that a pan-Chinese imperial army gives are much more reliable than that of provincial and warlord militias still vulnerable to their neighbours.

Besides - arrangements for the political autonomy of the Pearl River basin, Shanghai, and other mercantile cities and regions can always be arranged as compromises with the imperial government, let alone arranging the charters for engaging with such trade. Well, that was a reason why factories and concession cities were made in the first place - only that if the prospective capitalists were really interested in turning such places into places of free trade even to the point of treason, they needed to compel their fellow local merchants in the (honestly dubious) wisdom of being much less reverent and subservient to the government in the first place.

Say - we're in uncharted territories now that the Ming has opened all its ports to international trade. Who knows how addicted such coastal cities and merchants have become to all the foreign trade and ideas that are coming onto their shores? Are they willing to riot and outright rebel against the mandarins who will seek to restrict it?
 
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It does seem like the Bureaucratic North and Mercantile South (TM) are going to have beef in the near future; whether that leads to outright civil war is anybody’s guess.
 
It does seem like the Bureaucratic North and Mercantile South (TM) are going to have beef in the near future; whether that leads to outright civil war is anybody’s guess.
More like it's going to be a conflict between the cosmopolitan port cities and the more insular interior.

Will the Japanese stand to destabilising China, however? I doubt that when they can already and easily find themselves contented in being commissioned as the latter's navy and foreign affairs office - from which they can exercise an effective de facto customs authority, or at least its second layer in addition to that of the Chinese.

Instead - the Japanese may be interested in establishing a co-dominium with Beijing over the burgeoning charters of the coastal cities; taking advantage of the latter's anti-mercantilist bent, the former can likewise wiggle their way into monopolising the control of trade and commissioning of businesses and charters within those cities and its factories, all sanctioned - of course - by the Imperial court in China. This way - the anti-Ming and anti-Japanese merchants will be kicked out in favour of the ones that are more amenable to their interests.

Likewise - such merchants' uprisings on the coastal cities can be effectively blockaded by the Oda navy that is much more interested in maintaining the status quo in Ming China. While giving customs authority to the Japanese likewise gives them the ability to rip the Chinese off and its merchants a new one in controlling its maritime trade and foreign diplomacy - Beijing can see such a naval aid from the Japanese as being enough of a trade-off to consider the entire arrangement as a nothingburger: it means that they would need a much smaller garrison down south than they would have otherwise needed when those merchants' insurrections are sustained by gunrunners.

It's a matter of building Beijing's trust with the Japanese, and finding stuff that the latter can sell as well.

That said - this can lead to encouraging the following causes of further trouble:
  • The burgeoning trade in those cities easily provides more opportunities to conduct embezzlement and graft, on top of the legal customs duties and paperwork that both the Ming and the Japanese have already imposed.
  • As such - it is an additional venue for asset accumulation that we have seen in Heshen IOTL. When the person or organisation holding such an amount of wealth is purged, a destabilising glut of precious metals can be easily expected, with the lost income that they could have otherwise gotten from investing in an increasingly-literate market serving as a cherry on the top.
  • Revolutionary sentiment and its germination in lieu of OTL Paris on the coastal cities; a liberal turban uprising, baby!
 
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Say - we're in uncharted territories now that the Ming has opened all its ports to international trade. Who knows how addicted such coastal cities and merchants have become to all the foreign trade and ideas that are coming onto their shores? Are they willing to riot and outright rebel against the mandarins who will seek to restrict it?
Not all ports are exactly open to international trade. European merchants only have access to Guangzhou and Macau, although Japan along with other Asian nations has access to a much more universal slate of ports.
 
Just saw it now lol, Oda is pretty fun for a PFP. You play FGO obviously but what other Nasuverse stuff have you read/watched?
I got myself into Tsukihime, the Fate series (I'm currently reading Fate/Type Redline & Fate Strange/Fake), getting into the Witch on the Holy Night, Garden of Sinners, and I realized "Oh yeah, Notes. existed".

And yes, I like the Nasuverse and all of its insanity how could you tell?
 
I got myself into Tsukihime, the Fate series (I'm currently reading Fate/Type Redline & Fate Strange/Fake), getting into the Witch on the Holy Night, Garden of Sinners, and I realized "Oh yeah, Notes. existed".

And yes, I like the Nasuverse and all of its insanity how could you tell?
I personally had already played/read World of Darkness so a lot of lore and concepts from the Nasuverse were already familiar to me, so I mostly ended up being drawn in by the characters and their arcs, which is the main thing of the Nasuverse really, the exploration of the protagonists compared to others and the world around them.
 
Chapter 92: Tomoyoshi’s Administration and the Conclusion of the Luson War

Chapter 92: Tomoyoshi’s Administration and the Conclusion of the Luson War


Kanbe Tomoyoshi, a brother of the great Oda Nobutomo, now presided over the governance of Japan. He brought with him 29 years of experience as the governor of Luson province and a vast military record in both Luson and in the home islands. As the former governor of Luson, he was also uniquely knowledgeable about Japan’s foreign trade relations and the kingdoms and realms distributed across Southeast Asia. This knowledge along with his vast experience made him the right man to lead a realm reeling from the effects of civil war and still fighting Spain in the Philippines.

Firstly, he focused on reforming and stabilizing the fundamental politics of Azuchi. The previous succession edict decreed by Nobutomo as part of the Kanei Reforms was expanded further to address situations when the new head of the main Oda bloodline was underage. Under the expanded succession edict, in the case of the new clan head too young to take on the responsibilities of government, a senior member of the Oda clan would be appointed to become the daijo-daijin until the head of the Oda clan became of age to take over. Furthermore, the Oda heir would no longer serve as the lord of Gifu Castle as an adolescent, instead growing up in Azuchi Castle surrounded by his immediate family and the state apparatus. The Oda clan’s direct vassals in Mino province and appointed magistrates would subsequently have a greater role in governing the lands under the direct control of the central Oda clan. Gifu, already impacted by two sieges in two different wars, would decline in importance after its special status as the heir’s stronghold was removed.

Tomoyoshi also resurrected the Kudō clan, whose bloodline had been exterminated by Azuchi during the Manji War, by making his younger son Tomofuyu (神戸朝冬) its new head, the latter changing his name to Kanefuyu (工藤包基冬). Kudō Kanefuyu would be assigned as a page to the young Nobuhiro and would play a big role by his liege’s side throughout the latter’s later tenure. Finally, to avoid sowing resentment among those who had remained loyal to Azuchi and Konoe Toshishige during the civil war, Tomoyoshi followed a policy of amnesty, only confiscating lands from the Shibata and Kitabatake clans in Kaga and Kii provinces respectively. Oda Nagaaki, son of the late Oda Tomoaki, himself would be transferred from northern Echigo to Kaga province.​

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Portrait of Oda Nagaaki, son of the late Oda Tomoaki​

Tomoyoshi’s most significant reforms, however, dealt with the military power and structure of the realm. The daijo-daijin came to the conclusion that the regional daimyo lords were too capable of raising sizable armies relatively quickly and that the shogunal structure had been too ineffective to suppress the rebellion, even if he now governed Japan as a result of said rebellion. To remedy this, he summoned the Shinka-in for a special session and convinced them to agree to a new recruitment ratio wherein the various lords would commit more money and resources towards the maintenance of the regional shogunal armies and capping the size of their own individual armies and retinues. At the same time, the size of the shogunal armies would be regulated to dissuade any thoughts of future rebellion by the regional shoguns. This had the long-term effect of demilitarizing Japan as in future wars, the number of combatants relative to the population would be smaller, and the local daimyo would spend less time and resources towards the maintenance of their militaries. Finally, he oversaw the demilitarization and even deconstruction of many castles in order to reduce the defenses of each individual lord, limiting each lord to much smaller numbers of functional castles. On the other hand, Tomoyoshi understood the importance of having a strong navy to protect Japan’s mercantile and geopolitical interests at home and abroad and so sought to expand and upgrade it, making Tagawa Seikou the new naval shogun and the highest ever ranking non-Japanese deputy of Azuchi and the imperial court.

Tomoyoshi’s government also worked towards economic recovery as swaths of the countryside in central and northern Japan had been devastated due to the civil war, starting with relaxing taxation. Azuchi coordinated land reclamation efforts with the daimyo lords, paying particularly close attention towards transitioning landless ronin to agricultural and commercial work. Additionally, Tomoyoshi’s military reforms pushed many samurai retainers towards their domains’ central commercial enterprises, increasing the latter’s importance within Japan’s economy on the regional level. Finally, Tomoyoshi expanded the customs house of Sakai to accommodate the resumption of trade negatively affected by the civil war and future mercantile expansion. This last act was taken on the advice of the wealthy merchant Saidaniya Gonpei (才谷屋権平), Sakai’s biggest freight shipper. Gonpei had built his wealth and enterprise upon expanding Sino-Japanese trade from the 1630s and had at one point headed Sakai’s urban council of merchants and craftsmen and his successors would become one of Japan’s most influential non-samurai families in the coming decades.​

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Sketch of Saidaniya Gonpei, Sakai’s biggest freight shipper​

Although the civil war had ended, the Luson War still raged to the south. Between when Tomoyoshi had departed for Kagoshima and the conclusion of the Manji War, the Japanese had made both progress and hit roadblocks on the path to victory. Pangasinan was retaken in the first half of 1661, with only disparate unrest persisting for the rest of the year. This was followed by a march on Manila by Kanbe Tomozane with another army fielded by the Spanish easily defeated. However, in the seas Tagawa Seikou was unable to break the Spanish navy and blockade Manila. As a result, governor general de Lara was able to bring in Siamese mercenaries to bolster the defenses of Manila in anticipation of a Japanese siege. When it did happen, these mercenaries proved invaluable in fending off the Japanese. Due to Manila’s stubborn resistance and Spanish control of the city’s waters, the siege dragged on for a few months and after enduring harsh weather and outbreaks of disease Tomozane’s army was forced to halt the siege and fall back for the time being. This was the situation the Japanese found themselves in against the Spanish when the civil war finally ended.

Upon Tomoyoshi’s appointment as the new daijo-daijin, Kanbe Tomozane was officially made the new governor of Luson province. Shimazu Norihisa was charged with sailing south along with 25,000 men and joining the new Luson governor in taking Manila and defeating the Spanish. Most of these men were veterans who had directly fought under the command of Tomoyoshi and ranked among the realm’s best troops, and it was expected that their arrival would finally bring Manila under Japanese control. However, these men would not face the Spanish in battle, as Japan’s decisive victory that would end the war would take place in the ocean. After Tagawa Seikou was made the new naval shogun, he was able to consolidate the various squadrons in the Azuchi navy towards the war effort against the Spanish and gathered a large fleet to confront Beaumont’s Filipino-Spanish navy at the 2nd Battle of the Lingayen Gulf on September 19th, 1662. Seikou’s navy numbered 70 ships, including 25 Chinese junks, while Beaumont’s numbered 45, and Japan’s numerical superiority as well as Seikou’s own tact as an admiral led to a crushing victory, with Spanish naval strength in the Philippines reduced to tatters. This left Manila vulnerable to a Japanese blockade and overnight Manila’s chances of holding out until the Japanese would be forced to retreat evaporated. Left with no other choice, governor general de Lara sued for peace. Although some in Azuchi wanted Japan to take over the rest of Luzon island including Manila, Tomoyoshi knew all too well how difficult it had been to suppress Roman Catholic zealotry even within the borders of Japanese Luson and how dependent Asia was on Spanish silver and goods from the Americas. Finally, Azuchi simply needed more money.​

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Depiction of the 2nd Battle of the Lingayen Gulf​

In 1663, under what would be known as the Peace of Manila, Azuchi would once again directly collect 10% of the galleon trade. Furthermore, Spain was forced to agree to reduce the Manila fleet to just 20 ships. However, Japan would not demand the cession of further lands, avoiding having to subjugate an incensed native Catholic population. Indeed, the Peace of Manila overall was not the humiliation Manila expected, allowing it to be a long-lasting peace. In the long run, however, it would permanently weaken Spanish power in Southeast Asia and further tarnish the reputation of the Catholic faith in the East. A sign of this was Siamese king Chaofa Chai’s pivot away from the kingdom’s longtime ally in Spain, moving towards stronger ties with other European powers and direct imposition of its own power upon native kingdoms and sultanates throughout the region. Spanish commercial decline also allowed Japanese mercantile and political power in Southeast Asia to continually expand and fully recover from the disruption of the Manji War.​
 
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Great chapter as always, hopefully the Oda can rebuild the realm and stabilize it after so much war, they need some good decades of peace and reforms instead of foreign adventurism, although sending trading and exploration expeditions towards other places isn't exactly a bad idea either.


Also, the weakening of Spain both in Asia and in Europe could have some interesting butterflies back in Europe, mainly making Spain less attractive to inherent, which could make someone like Louis XIV be satisfied with "just" getting the Netherlands and Milan and maybe an American territory or two, also the war against the Dutch might see him accept the peace deal it was offered OTL instead of trying to push for more since here he won't feel the need to be as greedy.
 
With all these — it means that the Spanish captain-generalcy is now decisively handicapped vis-a-vis to what is now unified Mindanao.

Well — the latter does not really amount to much in terms of centrally-administrating what is now known by their Spanish contemporaries as its barangays, let alone controlling its pagan, Lumad interior and even their correligionists at the Lanao region; still, this meant that their incursions into Visayas will go on much more unmolested compared to how they had been in the past, especially considering their control of Cagayan de Oro and its port facilities.

So — due to all these making for a very rough time within Visayas — Manila is obligated to skirt around this treaty, more to defend against the Moros than to actually challenge the Japanese. Hence — there are the following ways to do this:

First: constructing naval vessels that do not fit the criteria of being ships; balangay boats ain't much, but those are honest work.

Second: paying and otherwise grovelling to the Thais to have them help defend against such incursions; with Spain now decisively weakened within that region — it's not that much of a jump for the captain-generalcy to request for an effective clientage with Siam, no?

And third: renegotiating the Treaty of Manila with an understanding that both sides will respect each others' posterities within the territories that they are now holding; it's not like they are doing this now with the conquest of Japanese Luzon in mind, after all.

And — should the third one fail — they can try setting-up a new command in Cebu that they can claim as not being limited by the treaty as how it had stipulated Manila's.
 
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