Military regime in Iran (1979)

[SealTheRealDeal]

Hi

This is my first post in this forum, although I have read many threads before, so apologies if I make some mistakes.

The topic that presently interests me is the Iranian Revolution, which happened exactly 40 years ago. I read that as the Shah was preparing to leave the country, his top generals were pondering upon the idea of launching a coup as soon as the Shah had left, but US warned them against this idea via General Robert Huyser and instead advised the generals to support the (weak) civilian government of Shapour Bakhtiar (see link below).

What if Washington had finally gone all in and advised the Iranian generals to take power by force? This would be accompanied by full public support for the coup. Lets assume the coup itself succeeds immediately and the generals (led by someone more decisive than former Prime Minister General Azhari) decide to assert their authority by ANY means necessary, including:
1) clearing the streets of protesters by using live ammo against any that defy the soldiers;
2) asking France to extradite Ayatollah Khomeini as soon as possible, to have him summarily executed as soon as he lands in Iran;
3) taking down any other significant protest leaders by either arresting and executing them (if they can be apprehended) or having snipers "take care" of them (if they are always surrounded by supporters);
4) taking oil production under military control, arresting any strikers and executing the strike leaders.

My guess is that the first reaction would be anger and even stronger protests, but after Khomeini and some other leaders are eliminated, the movement would be "decapitated" and gradually start weakening. What do you think, can the regime be saved?

Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/i...eral-huysers-secret-iran-mission-declassified

Civil war. This would lead to a civil war. Furthermore I really question how many Iranian soldiers would follow orders to kill their fellow citizens, orders which weren't even issued by the Shah to whom their allegiance was sworn.

A coup would most certainly torch the last shred of civil legitimacy the Shah's government had, there could be no restoration for Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Civil war. This would lead to a civil war. Furthermore I really question how many Iranian soldiers would follow orders to kill their fellow citizens, orders which weren't even issued by the Shah to whom their allegiance was sworn.

A coup would most certainly torch the last shred of civil legitimacy the Shah's government had, there could be no restoration for Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Regarding the soldiers obeying the generals, I would point out the example of the Algerian Civil War, when the generals carried out a coup, forcing the Algerian President to resign, in order to prevent the FIS from taking power, the soldiers obeyed the generals, despite the FIS having won the elections.
Why wouldn't the Iranian soldiers obey the generals?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Why wouldn't the Iranian soldiers obey the generals?

The Iranian Army was a mass of conscripts lead by a cadre unpopular officers who were almost exclusively of noble stock. IOTL, it was paralyzed by massive dessertions and defections durring the revolution, and I assume those numbers would only go up after the army dumpsters its source of legitimacy.

 

[Ricardolindo]

The Iranian Army was a mass of conscripts lead by a cadre unpopular officers who were almost exclusively of noble stock. IOTL, it was paralyzed by massive dessertions and defections durring the revolution, and I assume those numbers would only go up after the army dumpsters its source of legitimacy.

Once again, I point out to the Algerian example.
I'm sure, that, many Algerian soldiers voted for the FIS. In additon, the generals were part of the old and unpopular Algerian establishment. However, the soldiers obeyed the generals when they decided to carry out a coup, in order to prevent the FIS from taking power.
While one could argue that Algeria and Iran are different, I still think this to be a good analogy.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

While one could argue Algeria and Iran are different,

Yeah they are. They're a lot different. The Imperial Iranian Army of OTL was gutted by dessertions without any coup or explicit orders to massacre protestors. The rank and file clearly wasn't falling inline behind its officers. Instead there were actually instances of fragging and even open revolt.

 

[Ricardolindo]

What if the Iranian generals had carried out a coup and then negotiated with the moderate opposition, hoping to form an alliance to prevent Khomeini from taking power?

 

[Seandineen]

Perhaps one of the general staff could be a Horthy style regent for young resa?

 

[mianfei]

Could there be a Horthy type ruling in the name of young Reza?

Quite possibly if the US did intervene as outlined. The general who led the coup might have tried – if the US desired – to make it possible for him to maintain power as long as possible, and a regency would be quite a good means of doing this.

I have a problem with that argument. What if people stop believing in that God?

Basically the theocracy would decay and as others noted, be overthrown. In practice, most theocracies have actually been overthrown by external invasion (e.g. Papal States, Tibet, Taliban), but I would see internal overthrow as much more likely than democratisation.