Civil war. This would lead to a civil war. Furthermore I really question how many Iranian soldiers would follow orders to kill their fellow citizens, orders which weren't even issued by the Shah to whom their allegiance was sworn.Hi
This is my first post in this forum, although I have read many threads before, so apologies if I make some mistakes.
The topic that presently interests me is the Iranian Revolution, which happened exactly 40 years ago. I read that as the Shah was preparing to leave the country, his top generals were pondering upon the idea of launching a coup as soon as the Shah had left, but US warned them against this idea via General Robert Huyser and instead advised the generals to support the (weak) civilian government of Shapour Bakhtiar (see link below).
What if Washington had finally gone all in and advised the Iranian generals to take power by force? This would be accompanied by full public support for the coup. Lets assume the coup itself succeeds immediately and the generals (led by someone more decisive than former Prime Minister General Azhari) decide to assert their authority by ANY means necessary, including:
1) clearing the streets of protesters by using live ammo against any that defy the soldiers;
2) asking France to extradite Ayatollah Khomeini as soon as possible, to have him summarily executed as soon as he lands in Iran;
3) taking down any other significant protest leaders by either arresting and executing them (if they can be apprehended) or having snipers "take care" of them (if they are always surrounded by supporters);
4) taking oil production under military control, arresting any strikers and executing the strike leaders.
My guess is that the first reaction would be anger and even stronger protests, but after Khomeini and some other leaders are eliminated, the movement would be "decapitated" and gradually start weakening. What do you think, can the regime be saved?
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/i...eral-huysers-secret-iran-mission-declassified
A coup would most certainly torch the last shred of civil legitimacy the Shah's government had, there could be no restoration for Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.