Let Them Pass

[patch_g]

Keen to see more. Always enjoy an interesting WW1 piece of writing

 

[SilentSpaniard]

The English Channel: Two troopships are sunk on their way to LeHavre by German U-Boats with the loss of 315 British troops and their equipment. In response the British send several cruisers and destroyers to the area to try to hunt down “The German pirates” as the British press dubs the German raiders.

Hmm... The U-Boats don't need to be particularly effective or devastating. Just by existing, they could drive the British to some "paranoia" by overestimating the invisible menace. "What if that crazy Kaiser has filled the Channel with submarines!?" So they take many precautions, which in turn slow down the response time of the B.E.F., which in turn can't deploy as fast as the French would need...

 

[Monitor]

Hmm... The U-Boats don't need to be particularly effective or devastating. Just by existing, they could drive the British to some "paranoia" by overestimating the invisible menace. "What if that crazy Kaiser has filled the Channel with submarines!?" So they take many precautions, which in turn slow down the response time of the B.E.F., which in turn can't deploy as fast as the French would need...

Which sounds like it is the plan the Germans are following. Slow the brits down, so that they reach Paris before reinforcements can stabilize the frontline (and thus create the horrors of trench warfare, although the TL germans do not know about that little tidbit).

 

[Geon]

Chapter 13: The Marne Disaster Part 2)​

August 16, 1914; Paris: President Poincare’ and General Joffre have a “difference of opinion” that finds expression in a late-night shouting match at the President’s office! President Poincare’ wants to declare Paris an “open city” before moving the government to Lyons. General Joffre however believes this will badly affect the morale of the French Army. Poincare’ fears Joffre’s attitude may well mean Paris will be reduced to ruins. Joffre on the other hand believes that his upcoming counterattack will stop the German offensive in its tracks. If not, he is confident the line on the Marne will hold the invaders. He is aware of the 1st German Army swinging from the south and has dispatched a mix of French regulars, Foreign Legion, and colonial troops to delay them. Once the German offensive from the north is stopped, he is confident he can turn his full attention to cutting off the 1st German Army with the help of the British.

Le Havre, France: General John French arrives in Le Havre to supervise preparations for a counterattack against the Germans. It has been a week since the decision was made to land the BEF at Le Havre and presently the loss of two troopships notwithstanding everything has gone well. If all goes well, he should be able to launch his counterattack in four possibly five days. Of one thing he is sure, he will not attack until he is certain he has the forces and supplies to do so.

London: Lord Kitchener is looking at the latest status report and is not happy with what he sees. Despite his pleas to General French to hurry his preparations General French insists on taking the full two weeks he said he would need. But all intelligence is saying that unless the French are able to stop the northern German forces in the next day or so Paris will be surrounded by the 19th at the very latest.

The English Channel: In the Channel a British destroyer successfully sinks one of the German U-Boats sent to blockade the port of Le Havre. But the German Navy counters by sinking a supply ship with its 2nd Torpedo Squadron.

 

[Michel Van]

So easy to move the French Government to Lyon
The situation for France is close to downfall
Once the Germans reach Paris and control the City is Game Over for France
Because Paris is not only seat of Government, but the Administration, Finance and economic Center of Nation

France in that time was heavy centralized Nation, you not could paint your house, with out a bureaucrat Permit from Paris !

 

[Geon]

Chapter 14: The Marne Disaster (Part 3)​

August 17, 1914; Paris: Shortly after midnight a train pulls out of Paris. Loaded on the freight cars are the art treasures of the Louvre the National Library, and the assets of the National Bank. Moved in total secrecy to the station the treasures are being moved southward to Marseilles where they will be kept in a locked and guarded warehouse. If Germany should succeed in taking Paris, some of its greatest art treasures will be safe.

Also, that night a convoy of automobiles leaves Paris. The government of France is leaving the capital city. In one of these vehicles President Poincare’ feels like a rat abandoning a sinking ship. His pleas to Joffre to have Paris declared an open city have fallen on deaf ears. Joffre is determined to defend the French capital to the last man if necessary. Although he has repeatedly assured Poincare’ this will not be necessary. He is confident the upcoming counterattack will stop the Germans in their tracks and allow the French the time to regroup.

Poincare’ is beginning to wonder if it would be best to replace Joffre before it becomes necessary to replace the administrative, governmental, and cultural center of all France. He is also fearful of a panic in the city once the word inevitably leaks out that the government has fled, and the treasures of Paris that can be moved have been evacuated.

Joffre meanwhile has received some of the first good news since the war began. General Castenaiu has reported that the French 2nd army has succeeded in temporarily stalling the advance of the German 1st army at the Eure River near Chartres. He orders General Castenaiu to hold his position “for as long as feasible.” If the counterattack in the morning goes as planned then Joffre hopes to punch a hole in the German lines of advance and force them back through Belgium into Germany.

 

[Michel Van]

More on term Open City

Open city - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Odd
The Louvre is evacuated, but not national library or the national bank ?

 

[Geon]

Look above Michel. I did edit things after your reminder. Thanks!!

 

[ferdi254]

This is bad for the French. The Germans fully rested with much better supplies and no losses due to the Belgiums fighting and no troops tied down in that fighting.

With the 1st and 2nd French armies no longer covering the border the Germann 5th and 6th suddenly have no counterforce so they can either be moved to strengthen the push to Paris or start a much more successful version of the OTL attack they tried.

Even if the French can stop the Germans north of Paris much more French land will be in German hands (especially Bethune) and the channel ports in German hands will mean a lot more shipping compared to OTL will be needed to move anything between France and the UK.

 

[roachbeef]

Why would the British use their one surprise attack on Belgium when they can use this opportunity to do to the Germans what the Japanese did to the Russians? They can use expendable light ships to sink the High Seas Fleet in port or in transit to France right after a declaration of war.

Edit: Also, how on earth is this the "best" choice for Belgium? If the CP loses, Belgium has proven that it will not defend its neutrality, and that it does not honor its obligation to neutrality at all. There is very good justification to get rid of the Belgian sovereignty and make it a protectorate.

 

[marathag]

how on earth is this the "best" choice for Belgium? If the CP loses, Belgium has proven that it will not defend its neutrality, and that it does not honor its obligation to neutrality at all.

Ypres OTL

Selfish Bastards, right?

 

[roachbeef]

Selfish Bastards, right?

Oh, I must have forgotten writing that. It's shortsighted, not selfish. Belgium will get destroyed either way, except in here it will lose its sovereignty to boot as it has demonstrated its uselessness as a buffer zone. In fact, as a belligerent in the CP side, the Entente forces can destroy every Belgian city, port, infrastructure etc. without consideratation for collateral damage.

All this achieves is that Belgium becomes a legitimate military target in and of itself to the Entente instead of a speedbump and that trench warfare happens a few miles further southwest.

Even if the CP win through ASB logistical handwaving and Entente idiocy, why would Germany leave Belgium alone a few years down the line when it can make it another fine addition to the German Empire? It can be argued that Belgian sovereignty does not need to be respected since it broke its neutrality and cannot be trusted to keep its treaty obligations. Who is going to stop the Germans? The French?

OTL Belgium made the less bad of two very bad options.

If they went to the Entente and won, that was the best scenario as they kept their obligations and proved their usefulness as a buffer zone. If they lost, they might still be kept by Germany to funnel French counterattacks in the future down a narrow line of attack.

If they go to the CP, they throw away their only value and become an unreliable and untrustworthy actor that might as well be annexed by Germany, or they lose and get both their land destroyed and their sovereignty revoked as they have no value whatsoever as a buffer zone.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Belgium didn't abandon their sovereignty. I'm not sure if you've forgotten or just didn't notice, they agreed to allow the Germans to pass through, on the condition that the German Army respect the lives and property of Belgium's citizens, and that any and all misdemeanors will be duly acted against by the Belgian Army and police. A condition that the Germans accepted and lived up to.

German troops aren't occupying Belgium. No German officers are dictating internal affairs to the Belgian government in Brussels. The Belgian Army retains a deterring element against German (or Entente) attempts at outright aggression.

Belgium merely secured their sovereignty by non-military means.

 

[matzeskatze]

Oh, I must have forgotten writing that. It's shortsighted, not selfish. Belgium will get destroyed either way, except in here it will lose its sovereignty to boot as it has demonstrated its uselessness as a buffer zone. In fact, as a belligerent in the CP side, the Entente forces can destroy every Belgian city, port, infrastructure etc. without consideratation for collateral damage.

I highly doubt that this is true.
Should the fighting reach that far back, then yes the demages would be great, but certainly there still would be consideration of them.

And should the fighting not reach so far, the destruction without need of Belgian cities and infrastructure would be what we today see as a war crime, I think. Add that it would totaly sour international relations if it becomes known how the Entente acts and well goodby American goodwill.

 

[Monitor]

Something to consider about the Belgium situation: If the entente win in this scenario, then yes, they are f...
If the central powers win OTL, then yes, they are f...
If the entente win OTL, then yes, a lot of their territory is destroyed for certain (even in the case of a short war (the need to get through as quickly as possible). Ignoring trench warfare... (And the entire country is en route, so...)
If the central powers win in this time, they have good chances to loose at worst only Ports and near port facilities.

They had the choice between principles and certain death And not principles but chances on not death. If the one they harm with their actions win, they are dead either way...

Did they choose correctly? Only time will tell.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Oh, I must have forgotten writing that. It's shortsighted, not selfish. Belgium will get destroyed either way, except in here it will lose its sovereignty to boot as it has demonstrated its uselessness as a buffer zone. In fact, as a belligerent in the CP side, the Entente forces can destroy every Belgian city, port, infrastructure etc. without consideratation for collateral damage.

It's not a belligerent on the CP side yet. AFAIK no one has actually declared war on Belgium yet.

This is not a technical nicety either - USA was in a similar position vs Germany prior to Pearl Harbor in WW2. They did not take kindly to Germans attacking their ships when they were "neutral" even though they were supplying the British.

Now we know the war will be fought in Belgium in TTL - what we don't know is if Belgium will actually fight in TTL.

 

[matzeskatze]

It's not a belligerent on the CP side yet. AFAIK no one has actually declared war on Belgium yet.

I seem to remember that the French declared rather fast after they learned of Belgium allowing German troops to pass through.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I seem to remember that the French declared rather fast after they learned of Belgium allowing German troops to pass through.

Apologies - you are correct. Both France and the UK declared war on Belgium.

 

[ferdi254]

Belgium will not be fighting area. And realistically with the BEF deployed and the German army worn and with low supplies after having fought their way through Belgium they nearly made it to Paris.

Here they did not lose troops fighting Belgiums, are fully supplied, the BEF is still polishing its shoes and they have the Belgian railsystem to keep them supplied.

But even if the front just stalls the Entente is screwed. With the longer supply route across the channel (which is much more vulnerable) shipping, crews and coal will become issues, trains and again coal are needed more to transport supplies and troops from the ports to the front, a large part of UK coal will need to go to France, so less for Italy, more fertile land is in German hands meaning more expensive food exports...

So the early 1917 crisis will come earlier maybe even before the US election meaning game over in end of 1916.

That is if Italy still joins the Entente which is not that likely.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Author's fiat - Belgium will be fought over.

Sadly, Belgium was still fated to become a battleground, one of many in the first World War. (From Days that Changed the World, by Samuel Poincaire, Paris, 1989.)​