Let Them Pass

[Geon]

Chapter 20: Medals Awarded​

August 20, 1914; Berlin: In a public ceremony General Erich Von Falkenhayn awards the captain of the infantry unit which rescued the two young Belgian women from the drunken French soldiers the Iron Cross “for conspicuous courage, gallantry and chivalry.”

The German press is already playing up the incident telling of the “barbarity of the French toward the Belgians” as contrasted by the civilized behavior of the Germans who are passing through Belgium.

Kaiser Wilhelm sees the clear propaganda advantages of playing up this incident. The positive portrayal of German soldiers can certainly go a long way toward influencing many undecided nations such as Italy to stay out of the conflict for fear of public backlash.

Belgium: In Belgium it has now been three weeks since the Germans crossed the nation to invade France. Although the atmosphere is still tense between the Belgians and their German “visitors” things have remained extremely calm and peaceful thus far.

While there have been a few incidents between German soldiers and civilians these have been for the most part handled by the Belgian constabulary. German soldiers caught misbehaving in any way are jailed and then turned back over to their commanders for further punishment. Likewise, any disrespect of German soldiers shown by Belgian civilians is handled in an even-handed way.

The Germans in the meantime have launched a “charm offensive” throughout Belgium to show their good will to the Belgian people. German military bands hold weekend concerts in several major Belgian towns and cities. Rear supply units sponsor gymnastic and boxing exhibitions as well.

The good manners of the Germans contrasts sharply with that of the French communities near the Franco/Belgian border. Belgian refugees have begun to appear fleeing northward from France telling of how they are being persecuted and threatened by the French population as traitors. In some cases, the Belgian refugees from France tell of their homes and shops being burned by overzealous French mobs.

All of this is grist for the German propaganda mill.

South of Paris: General von Kluck’s First Army has succeeded after two attempts at outflanking the French positions at Chartres. He is now approaching Montargis with the French forces under D’Esperrey falling back to try to form a defense line on the River Loing. If all goes well he hopes in the next two to three days to link up with the 2nd and 3rd armies and close the noose on Paris.

 

[Monitor]

No, you're surely right.

The Germans actually didn't suffer *that* badly in terms of casualties in their operations in Belgium in August. Probably around 19,000 in total from the main actions (Charleroi, Namu, Liege, Mons, Halen), with most of the losses (about 11,000) actually coming in combat with the French Fifth Army at Charleroi. Still, that's more than full Heer rifle division's worth, so it surely helps.

More important, German logistics will be in better shape, because it will have been a smooth (and rapid) march without deployments for combat; the Germans will have consumed a lot less in the way of ammunition, food, fodder, etc.

And, significantly more important in the short to mid term: intact railways.

 

[Athelstane]

And, significantly more important in the short to mid term: intact railways.

Yup.

 

[VoidStalker]

And, significantly more important in the short to mid term: intact railways.

Not to mention the railways are not being sabotaged so they will continue to function and any rolling stock that was OTL used to repair can be used elsewhere, like say when it gets time to push into Russia.

 

[Remington 2.0]

I'm surprised the Russians have not tried another rushed offensive into Prussia or Austria to try to force the Germans to send troops to reinforce Eastern front to weaken the German attack on Paris since if the French surrender they are now facing the full Austrian and German armies not to mention the posibilities
Of Romania entering the war with central powers and the risk that Japan might turn traitor if offered enough by the central powers

 

[marathag]

I'm surprised the Russians have not tried another rushed offensive into Prussia or Austria to try to force the Germans to send troops to reinforce Eastern front to weaken the German attack on Paris

takes time to kickstart that Russian Steamroller into gear Took till the 17th of August to move against Austrian Galicia and East Prussia, the latter leading to Tannenberg.

Conrad trying to attack was for Russia's benefit in the end, but that would also take a month for the flaw in that advance to open for the Russians to take advantage of, with Conrad pulling forces for use in Serbia after he mistakenly thought he had the Russians on the run from the early advances

The Austrian 3rd Army was getting hammered, and a botched realignment by the 4th Army opened the lines, letting the Russian 3rd Army threaten the entire front, and the Austrians had to retreat quickly back to the Carpathians , after 100k dead and the same captured.

Smashing the Austrians doesn't take Germans away from Paris, though

 

[Remington 2.0]

It might force the Germans to divert troops to reinforce Austria troops that are needed to fight the French and keep the British from uniting with French and garrisoning the French coast to prevent the british from landing troops behind German lines meaning the number of German troops facing the French army and Paris is not as large as they could

 

[Athelstane]

takes time to kickstart that Russian Steamroller into gear Took till the 17th of August to move against Austrian Galicia and East Prussia, the latter leading to Tannenberg.

Yeah. The Russians were moving recklessly fast as it was. I don't see how you can push it any faster.

 

[marathag]

It might force the Germans to divert troops to reinforce Austria troops that are needed to fight the French and keep the British from uniting with French and garrisoning the French coast to prevent the british from landing troops behind German lines meaning the number of German troops facing the French army and Paris is not as large as they could

In this TL, it's now the 20th of August, and the Germans on the Western Front are where there were historically in early September, though in this TL, they were able to stay closer to the planned line of advance, North of Paris

and have captured several of the Channels ports, as OTL missed during the Race to the Sea. Author has not stated, but would not be surprised for the Germans to be holding along the Somme, massing for the next stage to hook Paris

 

[Athelstane]

and have captured several of the Channels ports, as OTL missed during the Race to the Sea. Author has not stated, but would not be surprised for the Germans to be holding along the Somme, massing for the next stage to hook Paris

Hard to see how they *wouldn't* be on the Somme, if von Kluck has already got detachments to grab the Pas de Calais Channel ports... I mean, with the BEF out of the picture, there's nothing out there to stop them.

Also, Sixth Army only formed on August 26th, frantically thrown together along the Somme-Avre line, roughly from Amiens to Moreuil - later to fall back on Paris, of course, which was workable because Kluck had made his infamous turn to the south near Villers-Bretonneux. They had time to do that, because the BEF had made that stand at Mons. Well, that didn't happen here, and I doubt that Joffre can throw it together much faster than in OTL. Kluck is punching into air now.

Now, @Geon has 9th Army thrown together faster here - it is already in the field south of the Marne now - but it would be a true miracle to do the same with the 6th on such warp speed.

Would Kluck turn south anyway? I tend to doubt it, because he wouldn't have hit any serious resistance yet, and his casualties have been minimal. The density of Entente defense is not going to be anywhere near what it was OTL after the Battle of the Frontiers, so there is less worry about gaps opening up between Kluck and Bulow. If it were me, I'd probably see Kluck's center of gravity closer to Pontoise than Coulommiers. The French are just stretched too thin without the BEF and 6th Army in the line yet.

I still think Joffre would need to be beaten hard out of his Lorrraine Offensive, and would be even slower to react decisively than @Geon has him doing; but even on Geon's reckoning, the Belgian free pass to the German right wing has got them deep, deep inside Joffre's OODA loop.

As I see it, the French are screwed. Paris will fall under siege within days, with whatever Joffre can scrape together in 6th Army's place inside the 1870-90 Séré de Rivières fortifications (basically a two belt defense, albeit not quite up to the task of facing off the big new Krupp artillery once it comes up), with 4th and 9th basically forced back to the Seine. The French just don't have the density of troops to keep the Germans from penetrating where they choose hit - save, temporarily, the works of Paris, if Joffre can get at least a couple divisions into it in time. Kluck and Bulow will in any event surely prefer to envelop and go around it, to flank Foch and Langen into oblivion before they can dig in anywhere.

And the Russians? There's just not enough time for them to do anything that will matter to the French. No matter how many Austrians they kill in Galicia. Note that in OTL, Moltke did not send those two corps to East Prussia until August 28. Hell, by August 28, Kluck could be in Orleans.

 

[Athelstane]

Here's a better map of the Paris defenses in gif form, which may be helpful.

EDIT: Originally I had thought that the outer ring Paris forts (along the green line above) were pretty much built in the first wave of construction of the Séré de Rivières fortifications, so they lacked the reinforced concrete and cast iron armor of the latest fortifications built in Verdun and Toul et al in the final pre-war years. It turns out I was wrong: these fortifications got a lot of updating in the 1890's, though it seems some of the updates, like armor turrets, had not been installed yet.

Still, with a even a modest cohort of regular troops to back up the Territorials on hand, they're certainly better than nothing, and ought to be able to hold off Kluck for at least few days . . . but then again, as I say, I think German doctrine was to envelop and bypass the city anyway. A battle for Paris will suck up too many troops and logistics needed to go kick Foch's and Langen's ass.

And all this massive investment in Paris's defenses - which was more than I expected, I confess - reinforces my belief that Poincare will want to see SOME effort to defend the city. It is not quite Verdun-Toul, but otherwise, it was, it seems, arguably the best defended zone in France in 1914.

 

[Riain]

Not that these forts would be a massive problem, the 16" Big Berthas and 12" Skoda mortars cleaned up the forts and Antwerp and other places IOTL.

 

[Athelstane]

Not that these forts would be a massive problem, the 16" Big Berthas and 12" Skoda mortars cleaned up the forts and Antwerp and other places IOTL.

Oh yeah, sure - we know what they did to Antwerp, Liege, and - later on, Verdun.

The thing is, though, it will take time to bring those guns up to Paris. Kluck doesn't exactly have Skodas in his frontline divisions. Recall that at Antwerp, Beseler basically isolated Antwerp by August 31, and then waited until Sept 28 when the big guns were finally in place to start blowing the hell out of it. It took until Oct. 10 until the city surrendered. So, it wasn't an instant thing. A sure thing, but not an instant thing.

What it does mean is that if the French choose to defend Paris (and I think they must), it's in better defensive shape than it was in 1870, by far . . . and yet, when the Germans are ready to reduce it after smashing Joffre's field armies, it damned sure will not hold out remotely as long as it did in 1870-71. So probably like Antwerp: four weeks or so to bring up the guns, and 2-3 weeks to overcome the defenses. At that point, the Paris commander has to decide if he wants to make the city a pile of rubble and fight to the death. Not least because the French do not have the Scheldt to defend their rear - that's more line that has to be manned, thinning their troops out, and as you can see on the map I put up, the area around St. Germain is not exactly well defended.

 

[marathag]

So probably like Antwerp: four weeks or so to bring up the guns

Big Berthas took up to two weeks to properly emplace, the Skodas took days, and could be moved by road, and not railroad.

Aug. 4 - Germany invaded Belgium at 9am

Aug. 5 - Germany attacked ring of 12 Liege forts With Infantry. Attack fails

Aug. 8 Krupp 210mm Howitzers reduce Fort Barchon

Aug. 11 -Krupp 210mm and Skoda 305mm howitzers reduce Fort d'Evegnee

Aug. 12 - The first Krupp 420mm mortar, or "morser" opened fired on Fort de Pontisse, and a second Krupp fired the next day

Aug. 13 - Krupp and Skoda guns reduce Fort d'Embourg, followed by 2 more forts Fort Hollogne and Flemalle

Aug. 14 - Two more fall, Fort Fleron and Fort Chaudfontaine

Aug. 15 - Fort de Loncin reduced and Fort Liers and Leman captured.

Aug. 16 - the last two of the forts around Liege surrendered, and the guns are moved to attack Namur.

Aug. 21 - Namur attacked with 210mm Krupp and 305mm Skoda guns firing first on forts facing east. By Aug. 25, Fort de Suarlee, last of the Namur forts, is reduced by 3600 shells by 210mm 305mm and 420mm fire

 

[Riain]

Oh yeah, sure - we know what they did to Antwerp, Liege, and - later on, Verdun.

The thing is, though, it will take time to bring those guns up to Paris. Kluck doesn't exactly have Skodas in his frontline divisions. Recall that at Antwerp, Beseler basically isolated Antwerp by August 31, and then waited until Sept 28 when the big guns were finally in place to start blowing the hell out of it. It took until Oct. 10 until the city surrendered. So, it wasn't an instant thing. A sure thing, but not an instant thing.

What it does mean is that if the French choose to defend Paris (and I think they must), it's in better defensive shape than it was in 1870, by far . . . and yet, when the Germans are ready to reduce it after smashing Joffre's field armies, it damned sure will not hold out remotely as long as it did in 1870-71. So probably like Antwerp: four weeks or so to bring up the guns, and 2-3 weeks to overcome the defenses. At that point, the Paris commander has to decide if he wants to make the city a pile of rubble and fight to the death. Not least because the French do not have the Scheldt to defend their rear - that's more line that has to be manned, thinning their troops out, and as you can see on the map I put up, the area around St. Germain is not exactly well defended.

I agree, these guns would take ages but there will be no holding out for months in Paris behind the defences.

However I'm not so sure the French Armies could be smashed because it was so difficult to surround Armies in the circumstances in the West in 1914. I think they will be pushed back and back until they balance each other out. This is why I maintain that even with much bigger success than OTL I don't think the French will surrender quickly.

 

[JonKenobi]

It all depends on if the Germans can keep the British bottled up in Le Havre.

If the Germans prevent a break out and relief from coming to Paris, and force the British to pay in the attempt with troops ( remember portions of the country and government don't want this war), that should play into Germany's hands.

They also need to keep Paris isolated and resupply what has already been taken. The Entente NEED to relieve Paris (or liberate it if it falls). Once Paris is there's, Germany just needs to play the defensive game in the west for the remaining of the year. If things play out like I think it will; the war in the west (namely France) is over by Christmas. The war with Britain is a little more abiqutous.

But... If the British do break out from Le Havre. If the patience in the build up pays off.. Paris might fall temporarily, but would force the Germans on the defensive and give a needed morale boost to the French.

Either way, great timeline and can't wait for the next part.

 

[Athelstane]

Big Berthas took up to two weeks to properly emplace, the Skodas took days, and could be moved by road, and not railroad.

Oh, it's a fair point: part of the delay was that the guns were being used to deal with higher priority objectives before they went to Antwerp.

I suppose I'm just factoring in the greater distance of Paris, and just how high a priority the Germans would make its reduction once it was put under siege, what with the heavy load on German logistics at that point.

Once the guns are up, though, even the concrete hardened forts won't hold up for long.

However I'm not so sure the French Armies could be smashed because it was so difficult to surround Armies in the circumstances in the West in 1914. I think they will be pushed back and back until they balance each other out. This is why I maintain that even with much bigger success than OTL I don't think the French will surrender quickly.

I actually agree that there's no quick surrender in the cards. French morale was higher than in 1940, and the zeal for revenge for 1870 was still high....

I don't know what Geon has in mind, but the strategic picture he has here on August 20 is approaching an irretrievable point, if all Joffre can do is solidify a line more or less on the middle and upper Seine. Even Paris put under partial siege is a grave blow given its criticality to French rail and road nets, and the war industries. They've lost the Channel ports, putting shipping from England under threat; they've surely completely lost the Bethune coal fields. They Germans are getting too deep into French territory to make a long-term French war effort, even with full British commitment, really viable. Maybe they could hold out until spring somehow but...it's hard to see how France could last until the one year mark.

And you can kiss any chance of Italy entering the war goodbye.

 

[Sarthak]

Forts played a massive role in the defense of Verdun. Despite popular conception, don't count them out.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I actually agree that there's no quick surrender in the cards. French morale was higher than in 1940, and the zeal for revenge for 1870 was still high....

I don't know what Geon has in mind, but the strategic picture he has here on August 20 is approaching an irretrievable point, if all Joffre can do is solidify a line more or less on the middle and upper Seine. Even Paris put under partial siege is a grave blow given its criticality to French rail and road nets, and the war industries. They've lost the Channel ports, putting shipping from England under threat; they've surely completely lost the Bethune coal fields. They Germans are getting too deep into French territory to make a long-term French war effort, even with full British commitment, really viable. Maybe they could hold out until spring somehow but...it's hard to see how France could last until the one year mark.

And you can kiss any chance of Italy entering the war goodbye.

The thing I'm struggling with here is that the French are repeating exactly the same mistakes that cost them the Franco-Prussian War almost 50 years previously. They have been defeated and outflanked in the field and are withdrawing into a fortress city. Paris will become a super-Sedan or Metz. Kluck has nothing to stop him completing the encirclement and the only organised peripheral force which has any chance of relieving the siege is based out of Le Havre with supply lines running across the Channel.

The BEF is not big enough to lift the siege and eventually Paris must fall Kluck by himself has 14-15 divisions to the BEF six,

What happens after Paris is besieged is a political question not a military one. The only way I can see events derailing the fall of Paris is for the Russians to become more competent / effective in their invasion of Prussia and panicking the Germans. Which is a long shot.

 

[ferdi254]

As I wrote putting the two armies into Paris is a massive blunder. Even if the German armies can now be stopped France is done for as the lack of coal, industry, food snd shipping will kill the Entente pretty fast. And with Italy staying out Russia will have a much harder time in 15 so most likely Rumania joins the CP. 16 would be hatd to reach for the Entente but possible.
if the Germans encircle Paris then the Frech armies will run out of ammo im December any without ammo continueing a fight is impossible