KMT wins Chinese Civil War, effects on Indochina?

[Cregan]

Lets say the Kuomintang wins the Chinese Civil War:

- The CCP is defeated on the battlefield and Mao is killed, the CCP retreats into Manchuria which is turned into a Soviet puppet state "People's Republic of China" firmly kept under Moscow's thumb (no way is there a Sino-Soviet Split ITTL, the PRC in Manchuria is a Soviet client state).

- Xinjiang is directly annexed by the Soviet Union as the Uighur SSR, while Inner Mongolia is annexed into the Mongolian People's Republic. There is a heavily militarised armistice line between the Soviet Union, PRC, Mongolia, and North Korea on one side and the ROC and South Korea on the other side.

- Moscow forbids North Korea from starting the Korean War.

- The PRC, Mongolia, and North Korea end up joining the Warsaw Pact.

- The ROC's capital is Nanjing and it retains China's UN Security Council seat. The ROC swiftly invades and annexes Tibet, which alienates India and pushes the Indians towards their pro-Soviet stance from IOTL. Consequently, the ROC develops an American-backed alliance with Pakistan as a counterweight.

What happens to Indochina? Does anything resembling the Vietnam War occur?

 

[Constantinople]

I suspect it's a huge shit hole for a long time.

 

[Jimbobq]

I suspect it's a huge shit hole for a long time.

I suspect that this individual is correct.

 

[Cregan]

I suspect it's a huge shit hole for a long time.

I suspect that this individual is correct.

OK so the French puppet State of Vietnam (under Bao Dai or Diem), along with the Cambodian and Laotian kingdoms survive then? What happens to the Viet Minh?

 

[ComradeH]

OK so the French puppet State of Vietnam (under Bao Dai or Diem), along with the Cambodian and Laotian kingdoms survive then? What happens to the Viet Minh?

But when the KMT "win". In OTL, Mao's force earned victory in 1949, which allow Viet Minh to receive support and launch a new campaign in 1950. This is also the basis for the fall of Dien Bien Phu garrison (1954)

If KMT win, Viet Minh will still fight (but with less effective). I believe that they'll opt for a better hit and run program. Soviet help, while arrived later compared to OTL (and more "secretive"), would be more and better. Though I'm quite sure that Viet Minh will turn out to be more nationalist than communist

 

[Avrorrange]

But when the KMT "win". In OTL, Mao's force earned victory in 1949, which allow Viet Minh to receive support and launch a new campaign in 1950. This is also the basis for the fall of Dien Bien Phu garrison (1954)

If KMT win, Viet Minh will still fight (but with less effective). I believe that they'll opt for a better hit and run program. Soviet help, while arrived later compared to OTL (and more "secretive"), would be more and better. Though I'm quite sure that Viet Minh will turn out to be more nationalist than communist

I'm not sure there would be any Soviet help.I mean,how can Soviet aid actually get to Indochina in the first place?The French will probably blockade the Indochinese coast and prevent the Soviets from smuggling any weapons there.

 

[Cregan]

I'm not sure there would be any Soviet help.I mean,how can Soviet aid actually get to Indochina in the first place?The French will probably blockade the Indochinese coast and prevent the Soviets from smuggling any weapons there.

It seems very likely that a pro-Western SEATO organisation spearheaded by the ROC and ROK forms, including the anti-communist regimes of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Burma, Phillipines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Probably Singapore too eventually.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

It seems very likely that a pro-Western SEATO organisation spearheaded by the ROC and ROK forms, including the anti-communist regimes of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Burma, Phillipines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Probably Singapore too eventually.

That's basically the whole of SE Asia. There's always the possibility that a communist uprising in Indonesia or the Philippines could be successful. Some would say Malaya too but in reality that's a non-starter. But mainland SE Asia at least would be firmly anti-communist.

 

[HongCanucker]

There was that proposal to annex Indochina to the ROC towards the end of the war, which Chiang did like, but went out of the window when the Big Three instead decided to give it back to France instead. Could that still be an option on the table? I have a lot of doubts on that myself.

 

[Sabot Cat]

There was that proposal to annex Indochina to the ROC towards the end of the war, which Chiang did like, but went out of the window when the Big Three instead decided to give it back to France instead. Could that still be an option on the table? I have a lot of doubts on that myself.

Where did you get this information...? Chiang was offered that and flatly refused out of hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiang_Kai-shek#Refusal_of_French_Indochina

 

[scholar]

I'm not sure there would be any Soviet help.I mean,how can Soviet aid actually get to Indochina in the first place?The French will probably blockade the Indochinese coast and prevent the Soviets from smuggling any weapons there.

The KMT actually got along rather well with the Soviet Union, and Stalin was telling Mao not to fight the KMT almost up until the Maoists gained near total victory in the north. The KMT government was initially modeled off of the Marxist-Leninist model, and while Chiang was against the Soviets and sought to change towards nationalism, the Chiang had a special relationship with the Soviets after the second world war, and even successfully petitioned Stalin to stay in Manchuria longer so that he could claim the cities before the Chinese since he needed a more time to prepare than Mao. Stalin could probably gain access to Vietnam through the KMT.

There were two reasons for this, first was Stalin thought Mao could not win, and second was that the cities and the industrial class, what marxist-leninism believed to be the single most important prerequisite for communism, were firmly in the hands of the Nationalists. Mao actually had to reorient the entire focus of class struggle to the countryside and land reform, making it an agrarian revolution rather than an industrial one, in order to succeed. Stalin and Mao had an uneasy relationship from then on, and was one of the reasons for the Sino-Soviet split much later.

But that assumes a different playing out of the civil war. If the CCP remains under Soviet control, then Chiang would never allow Soviet material through China proper.

 

[oreocruncher]

There will be territorial disputes with the USSR due to their annexation of Xinjiang...

 

[Little Red Bean]

Any relationship between the RoC and Soviets will have been destroyed by an annexation of Xinjiang. Likely it would be either turned over to the rump PRC government (if contiguous territory was controlled) or it would be made into an independent Soviet satellite state like Mongolia. In addition, Inner Mongolia was over 80% Han Chinese by the end of WWII, so any annexation, in addition to being an affront to both the KMT and CCP, would have the effect of making Mongolia a majority Han nation.

But ignoring all of that, it is unlikely that the Viet Minh would be able to liberate Vietnam without the support of a cooperative China. As others have pointed out, the Soviets would be unable to supply them without Chinese cooperation. Likely Indochina is broken up into three post-colonial African-style French puppet states, with France maintaining political, economic, and military presence even as the Empire formally ends.

 

[BBadolato]

Xinjiang was never annexed and it was under KMT control again by 44-45. Sheng Shicai the governor who controlled Xinjiang, had requested for annexation with Xinjiang as an SSR and even tried to show his communist credntials but was rejected. In fact, when Sheng had betrayed Stalin in 42 Stalin had basically told Jiang about this, and by 44 Sheng was out of power. This was after Stalin had propped up Sheng as a de-facto independent leader against the KMT in 1933.

I'd say that at the very least French rule in Indochina is going to chug along slowly, maybe even keep it at least for a while. The Viet Minh got most of their support early on from Mao and Stalin had to be convinced it was worth it by him. No Mao, the Vietminh are hard pressed for supplies unless the French somehow screw up, although there might be a less of a Red Ccare that the French are forced to give up Indochina soon anyway.

 

[Little Red Bean]

Xinjiang was never annexed and it was under KMT control again by 44-45. Sheng Shicai the governor who controlled Xinjiang, had requested for annexation with Xinjiang as an SSR and even tried to show his communist credntials but was rejected. In fact, when Sheng had betrayed Stalin in 42 Stalin had basically told Jiang about this, and by 44 Sheng was out of power. This was after Stalin had propped up Sheng as a de-facto independent leader against the KMT in 1933.

Yes, the Soviets had no interest in annexing either Xinjiang or Mongolia, despite repeated requests by leaders in both places. In addition to a general lack of interest in expanding beyond historical Russian territory, the Soviets knew that maintaining good relations with China was more important than formally annexing territory they effectively controlled anyway.

Come to think of it, it's very likely that in any KMT "victory" the RoC would maintain control of the entirety of Xinjiang. The PLA didn't take the province until the very end of the war IOTL.

 

[Blackfox5]

France wins the Indochina War with the status of Vietnam as it was in late 1948. There is a State of Vietnam under Emperor Bao Dai within the French Union.

It will take many years, but likely by 1955 instead of French acceptance of independent Vietnam lead by Ho, the State of Vietnam will have secured most of the country with French help.

The State of Vietnam will have increasing autonomy during the war, and especially after most of the Communists have been defeated and the country is "secure". Some Communist forces will remain as bandits in the jungle, but they won't threaten the government's control.

Most likely French influence will decline severely as American influence grows as it will be untainted as a colonial power. However, France will retain significant influence until the mid-1960s by which time American economic influence and diplomacy becomes predominant. However, French cultural influence is likely retained for a long time with many permanent influences.

At some point in time, Vietnam may make its own constitutional arrangements and leave the French Union or whatever successor organization it belongs too.

Without the ability to receive aid from Communist China, the Vietnamese Communists are condemned to lose.

 

[Blackfox5]

- Xinjiang is directly annexed by the Soviet Union as the Uighur SSR, while Inner Mongolia is annexed into the Mongolian People's Republic. There is a heavily militarised armistice line between the Soviet Union, PRC, Mongolia, and North Korea on one side and the ROC and South Korea on the other side.

This is not possible except with a POD before the end of WWII. As others have said, China had control of Xinjiang before the end of the war. As for Inner Mongolia, China had control of some of it during the war and moved back into it after the war. For the Soviet Union to incorporate it into Mongolia would cause an international crisis.

 

[Tom Colton]

Wasn't the VNQDD pretty popular in Vietnam before the war?

 

[Blackfox5]

The ROC swiftly invades and annexes Tibet, which alienates India and pushes the Indians towards their pro-Soviet stance from IOTL. Consequently, the ROC develops an American-backed alliance with Pakistan as a counterweight.

Most likely the Republic of China negotiates a deal for Tibetan internal autonomy within the Republic of China, and China controls the foreign policy of Tibet. It is much more likely Tibet agrees to some kind of deal with Chiang than it would have with Mao.

If there is an invasion, it will not be anywhere near as brutal as the PRCs. Neither will the ROC be interested in destroying Tibetan culture.

China likely has good relations with India. Indian nationalists will remember Chiang supported them early on and in WWII. I don't see them being more upset with Chiang for an invasion than they were with Mao.

While it is possible OTL's scenario develops where India becomes pro-Soviet because America helps Pakistan because it gives them air bases, the US likely can develop any air bases it needs in China instead and will stay out of Indo-Pakistan politics.

If the Soviet Union really did dismember China by annexing Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, India is likely to be more anti-Soviet in feeling. Most likely it really is "non-aligned" in the Cold War.

 

[David T]

The French had three years to wipe out the Viet Minh before the Chinese Communists arrived on the Chinese-Vietnamese border and failed to do so. So I am skeptical of the argument that they could have done so if the Chinese Civil War had turned out otherwise. (Of course failing to wipe out the Vett Minh does not mean necessarily mean actually losing the war.)