Japan opens up in 1700s

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

As Woody Allen said, "80% of life is showing up." This PoD means Japan shows up 130 years earlier, and becomes a factor in the affairs of the rest of the world. Japan will end the prohibition on Japanese leaving the country, and Japanese mariners will begin to voyage around the Pacific Ocean. Japan has about half the population of France, Britain, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands combined, and unlike those countries, is in the Pacific, not ten thousand km away.

OTL, a relative handful of voyagers from those countries dominated the whole Pacific - because there was no competition. (There was Russia in SIberia and Alaska, but that was not important.) ITTL, Japanese voyagers will outnumber Europeans, and the Pacific islands will become a Japanese cultural and political zone of influence.

If Japan chooses to get forceful, they can probably seize or pre-empt all SE Asia from the Europeans.

Of course, all this depends on the course of Japanese politics following the Opening. One might see something like OTL's Meiji Restoration, or a fumbled mess like late Qing China. In the latter case, there would be no Japanese power in the Pacific for a long time, but there still could be a lot of individual Japanese out and about - easily comparable to the number of Europeans.

In the longer term - if Japan develops as OTL into a "Westphalian" state that is a peer of the European states, though not European, but 100 years sooner than OTL, that affects the entire thought pattern that underlay imperialism. For instance, it might kick off the Indian independence movement earlier; it could easily inspire Indian states such as the Sikh realm to pursue "Westphalian" recognition from multiple European states.

Japan could be a player in the Pacific Northwest. IIRC, a lot of the furs procured there were sold in China, which makes that trade a natural target for Japanese venturers. Japanese traders might easily be established in the Oregon Country well before the British arrive in the 1790s.

 

[GameBawesome]

If the Tokugawa did open up the Japan, could we we see a return of the Atakebune? Or the adoption of European vessels?

Could we see a return of the Red Seal Ships?

 

[BBadolato]

As Woody Allen said, "80% of life is showing up." This PoD means Japan shows up 130 years earlier, and becomes a factor in the affairs of the rest of the world. Japan will end the prohibition on Japanese leaving the country, and Japanese mariners will begin to voyage around the Pacific Ocean. Japan has about half the population of France, Britain, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands combined, and unlike those countries, is in the Pacific, not ten thousand km away.

OTL, a relative handful of voyagers from those countries dominated the whole Pacific - because there was no competition. (There was Russia in SIberia and Alaska, but that was not important.) ITTL, Japanese voyagers will outnumber Europeans, and the Pacific islands will become a Japanese cultural and political zone of influence.

If Japan chooses to get forceful, they can probably seize or pre-empt all SE Asia from the Europeans.

Of course, all this depends on the course of Japanese politics following the Opening. One might see something like OTL's Meiji Restoration, or a fumbled mess like late Qing China. In the latter case, there would be no Japanese power in the Pacific for a long time, but there still could be a lot of individual Japanese out and about - easily comparable to the number of Europeans.

In the longer term - if Japan develops as OTL into a "Westphalian" state that is a peer of the European states, though not European, but 100 years sooner than OTL, that affects the entire thought pattern that underlay imperialism. For instance, it might kick off the Indian independence movement earlier; it could easily inspire Indian states such as the Sikh realm to pursue "Westphalian" recognition from multiple European states.

Japan could be a player in the Pacific Northwest. IIRC, a lot of the furs procured there were sold in China, which makes that trade a natural target for Japanese venturers. Japanese traders might easily be established in the Oregon Country well before the British arrive in the 1790s.

The problem is getting there in the first place. Yes Japan has the potential to be a power, but the question is how, and this is not an easily answered question. The biggest set back to any idea of a Japanese power is the lack of a strong centralized state.

Japan under the Shogunate relied on vassals that had to be willing to maintain the peace, otherwise, the Shogunate would and did have very little authority. With the Tokugawa Shogunate, sure they had more of a jump on the problem with rotational attendance for lords so they are forced to spend money, a system of favored lords, and even Hideyoshi's prior attempts to crack down on the amount an armed populace. It still left the various daimyo of the provinces as threats, on with a complete overhaul of the feudal system can Japan really be a power. I'm looking at the question myself for my timeline. Even with what I'm trying to do, there is still going to be a problem of potentially unruly clans, whose military power still is not entirely checked.

Military wise, Japan cannot do much of anything and it ties in the centralization as well. Since the military was raised by each clan, modernization can mean giving your enemy the means to go fight you. On top of that Japan of the 1700's was a far cry from the Japan of the 1590's or even early 1600's, the military would have to learn new methods, get a respectable army running and actually have a reason to either expand or seek alliances

If the Tokugawa did open up the Japan, could we we see a return of the Atakebune? Or the adoption of European vessels?

Could we see a return of the Red Seal Ships?

There would most likely continue with creating western styled ships like the Red Seal ships. The Atakebune was worthless outside of the Japanese style of naval warfare of the Sengoku, and the Japanese style was focused more on boarding actions, which would not be bad if Japanese ships were not bad outside of their own waters.

 

[GameBawesome]

If the Shogunate did build a military with modern at the time weaponry, and wants to expand, would we see a return of the Ashigaru unit?

 

[MrKrabsWorstNightmare]

As Woody Allen said, "80% of life is showing up." This PoD means Japan shows up 130 years earlier, and becomes a factor in the affairs of the rest of the world. Japan will end the prohibition on Japanese leaving the country, and Japanese mariners will begin to voyage around the Pacific Ocean. Japan has about half the population of France, Britain, Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands combined, and unlike those countries, is in the Pacific, not ten thousand km away.

OTL, a relative handful of voyagers from those countries dominated the whole Pacific - because there was no competition. (There was Russia in SIberia and Alaska, but that was not important.) ITTL, Japanese voyagers will outnumber Europeans, and the Pacific islands will become a Japanese cultural and political zone of influence.

If Japan chooses to get forceful, they can probably seize or pre-empt all SE Asia from the Europeans.

Of course, all this depends on the course of Japanese politics following the Opening. One might see something like OTL's Meiji Restoration, or a fumbled mess like late Qing China. In the latter case, there would be no Japanese power in the Pacific for a long time, but there still could be a lot of individual Japanese out and about - easily comparable to the number of Europeans.

In the longer term - if Japan develops as OTL into a "Westphalian" state that is a peer of the European states, though not European, but 100 years sooner than OTL, that affects the entire thought pattern that underlay imperialism. For instance, it might kick off the Indian independence movement earlier; it could easily inspire Indian states such as the Sikh realm to pursue "Westphalian" recognition from multiple European states.

Japan could be a player in the Pacific Northwest. IIRC, a lot of the furs procured there were sold in China, which makes that trade a natural target for Japanese venturers. Japanese traders might easily be established in the Oregon Country well before the British arrive in the 1790s.

Do you think they could take part in the Scramble for Africa with a “Meiji” being a hundred and fifty years earlier?

 

[BellaGerant]

Do you think they could take part in the Scramble for Africa with a “Meiji” being a hundred and fifty years earlier?

Why would they? Africa's far away and most resources they could hope to acquire (rubber, oil, coal, iron, tungsten, population, prestige) can be much more easily be acquired in the rest of East and SE Asia for a much lower cost and lower risk (since it is still a matter of navigating through the Straits of Malacca and across the Indian Ocean). And expanding into and administering the mainland is going to be nightmarishly expensive and involving for the bureaucracy and military.

Also, it wouldn't be a 'Meiji' since Emperor Meiji probably wouldn't even exist in ATL. Japan opening up opens up possibilities of a more outward looking Japan a century early but Indonesia, Korea, China, the Philippines, and SE Asia are far more enticing to Japanese expansionism, economically and prestige-wise, than Africa could ever be.

 

[Garetor]

Any return to large scale warfare in Japan is going to see the return of ashigaru units. The tokugawa were able to ban peasants from owning swords or guns because they had already convincingly conquered the country, and stability was more important that martial efficacy.

In the end, as European knowledge of modern firearm techniques filters through, either the Tokugawa adopt it or their enemies do.

 

[kasumigenx]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Formosa
Also the Spanish have the Philippines right there.

Portugal can open up Japan if it regains power after a better treaty of Lisbon.

 

[MrKrabsWorstNightmare]

Why would they? Africa's far away and most resources they could hope to acquire (rubber, oil, coal, iron, tungsten, population, prestige) can be much more easily be acquired in the rest of East and SE Asia for a much lower cost and lower risk (since it is still a matter of navigating through the Straits of Malacca and across the Indian Ocean). And expanding into and administering the mainland is going to be nightmarishly expensive and involving for the bureaucracy and military.

Also, it wouldn't be a 'Meiji' since Emperor Meiji probably wouldn't even exist in ATL. Japan opening up opens up possibilities of a more outward looking Japan a century early but Indonesia, Korea, China, the Philippines, and SE Asia are far more enticing to Japanese expansionism, economically and prestige-wise, than Africa could ever be.

Still, even a small outpost wouldn’t hurt, for some prestige and can be used as a naval base.


When i was talking about a Meiji, i referred to the process of modernization undertook by Japan and a cliche in many AHs. Of course Meiji would no doubtedly get butterflied.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Why would they? Africa's far away... and most resources they could hope to acquire (rubber, oil, coal, iron, tungsten, population, prestige) can be much more easily be acquired in the rest of East and SE Asia for a much lower cost and lower risk...

No further than it is from most of the European powers that joined the Scramble. And African terrritory was available when Asia was already divvied up. Africans generally were much easier to subjugate than Asian countries. (Also, some of the participants were in it for no particular economic reason, notably Germany and Italy.)

Given the date of the PoD, steam power, and eventually steamships, will be developed, giving European imperialism much greater force projection, and Japanese imperialism as well, At that point the unclaimed territory of Africa will be competed for, which means a "Scramble for Africa" similar to OTL , with Japan as a possible participant.

 

[Garetor]

Could this result in an earlier industrialized China, as well? Japan's power will be greater, but not overwhelming as it was in the Meiji era. The pressure from a former tributary without overwhelming industrial power could be beneficial

 

[BBadolato]

If the Shogunate did build a military with modern at the time weaponry, and wants to expand, would we see a return of the Ashigaru unit?

Ashigaru were not units or at least formal units ala Shogun 1 or 2. Considering the Armies of Sengoku period were feudal, they were a mix of peasants and ostensively the warrior class. However society in regards to warrior class was rather flexible were you had phenomena such as Jisamurai or farmer samurai, other times you saw monks become warriors again, or trains other monks to become warriors. Strictly speaking, a new Japanese army is not going to have ashigaru but a modified warrior class, that is perhaps less about social background.

Do you think they could take part in the Scramble for Africa with a “Meiji” being a hundred and fifty years earlier?

Why would they? Africa's far away and most resources they could hope to acquire (rubber, oil, coal, iron, tungsten, population, prestige) can be much more easily be acquired in the rest of East and SE Asia for a much lower cost and lower risk (since it is still a matter of navigating through the Straits of Malacca and across the Indian Ocean). And expanding into and administering the mainland is going to be nightmarishly expensive and involving for the bureaucracy and military.

Also, it wouldn't be a 'Meiji' since Emperor Meiji probably wouldn't even exist in ATL. Japan opening up opens up possibilities of a more outward looking Japan a century early but Indonesia, Korea, China, the Philippines, and SE Asia are far more enticing to Japanese expansionism, economically and prestige-wise, than Africa could ever be.

There is not going to be a "Meiji" in ANY sense of the meaning. The Meiji Restoration and later Meiji Reformation are not things that can be easily replicated. The Meiji Restoration came about when faith in the Shogunate had started to wain of foreign incursions, this gave many of old enemies of the Tokugawa common cause to see the emperor returned to power at the Shogun's expense, even the Shogun at the time had agreed to this.

The Meiji Reformation was the wholesale adoption of Western-styled military, and political reform. This saw the Japanese take a pick and choose option of trying to have a Prussian styled military with elements of the British House of Lords. More importantly, it gave the Japanese a colonialist mindset that in order to beat or resist the West, they had to become like the west even going as far as to adopt the kind of chauvinism that led to the Nanjing massacre. An "open" Japan, in this case, is NOT Imperial Japan several years early, it's a completely different beast, and must be treated as such.

Japan would first deal with questions of feudalism. How can the Tokugawa whose power relies upon a balance of power between the Fudai daimyo loyal to the Tokugawa and the Tozama or outsider daimyo who sided against the Tokugawa at Sekigahara just 100 years ago deal with even becoming a centralized state, before we even talk of conquest or colonies? From there, how are conquests and colonies supposed to even happen? If we are talking about a Japan that can get on an even footing with the west, but it will not be a wholesale adoption of attitudes, then why is Japan going to invade or colonize anywhere. What I am doing in my own timeline is more an interest in exploration coupled with mercenary expeditions, but even it still requires some form of reasoning and prestige and resources do not cut it.

 

[GameBawesome]

Could this result in an earlier industrialized China, as well? Japan's power will be greater, but not overwhelming as it was in the Meiji era. The pressure from a former tributary without overwhelming industrial power could be beneficial

You know, that gives me a thought.

If Japan become a aggressive Asian Power earlier, but equal to everyone else, could that end Korea’s Isolation? Could they also break isolation and try to modernize their military and navy?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

then why is Japan going to invade or colonize anywhere

Because, iOTL they tried to conquer Korea multiple times, and did take the Ryukus. ITTL I rather imagine they'll have a bone to pick with Spain, and Taiwan looks like it's low hanging fruit, so going after Taiwan and Luzon in some order makes sense. Certainly not guaranteed, of course, but likely imo.

 

[Xenophonte]

I think that's any hypothetical possible openness to the Western besides of the political and military sense also would imply the restart of the Christian preach and the back of the Jesuits and/or the rest of the missionary orders.
I think that if and/or when the Christian Ban would be lifted (given that IMO would incompatible with the attempt to westernize or at least 'open' the Japan to the West and, at least try, to become a peer power) would be probable that Kakure Kirishitans (and/or any possible cripto christian) and, guess that in lesser number, the Hanare Kirishitan would be themselves revealed and retake their former links with the rest of Catholicism. I guess that given the 'short time' that had passed, would be easier and more successful than in OTL.

 

[BellaGerant]

Because, iOTL they tried to conquer Korea multiple times,

Technically once pre-1900, under Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who needed an outlet to deal with the warrior class that was becoming obsolete due to the end of Japan's century long Warring States Period. A Japan that modernises after a long period of peace like the Edo period doesn't need war to stave off internal issues, which would terribly strain a modernizing economy in need of capital to build up infrastructure and institutions more than military expenses.

 

[Garetor]

You have just described the German planning after Case Red.

Technically once pre-1900, under Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who needed an outlet to deal with the warrior class that was becoming obsolete due to the end of Japan's century long Warring States Period. A Japan that modernises after a long period of peace like the Edo period doesn't need war to stave off internal issues, which would terribly strain a modernizing economy in need of capital to build up infrastructure and institutions more than military expenses.

Side-note: I don't personally believe the idea that Hideyoshi engineered the whole Imjin war to deplete the ranks of the samurai. The war was prosecuted with full vigor, and he had to endure one particularly humiliating incident where he came close to accidentally swearing fealty to the Chinese emperor, due to weird kabuki deception between his own diplomats and the Chinese ones. He actually ripped off the robes they had given him in front of his court and repudiated everyone involved, which I can't believe he would have submitted himself to if he was doing all this just to vent off excess manpower.

 

[Faeelin]

What's China doing in this scenario?

 

[kasumigenx]

Because, iOTL they tried to conquer Korea multiple times, and did take the Ryukus. ITTL I rather imagine they'll have a bone to pick with Spain, and Taiwan looks like it's low hanging fruit, so going after Taiwan and Luzon in some order makes sense. Certainly not guaranteed, of course, but likely imo.

Taiwan yes, Luzon no.

 

[GameBawesome]

What's China doing in this scenario?

I would imagine them being ignorant, maybe even oblivious to the entire change, until the Japanese Attacka them.

But, I would imagine the Koreans being more aware of the situation, and maybe even they try to modernize as well