Japan opens up in 1700s

[BellaGerant]

Side-note: I don't personally believe the idea that Hideyoshi engineered the whole Imjin war to deplete the ranks of the samurai. The war was prosecuted with full vigor, and he had to endure one particularly humiliating incident where he came close to accidentally swearing fealty to the Chinese emperor, due to weird kabuki deception between his own diplomats and the Chinese ones. He actually ripped off the robes they had given him in front of his court and repudiated everyone involved, which I can't believe he would have submitted himself to if he was doing all this just to vent off excess manpower.

Ah, apologies. I ought to have phrased it as '[Japan only invaded Korea] Technically once pre-1900, under Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who *among other reasons* needed an outlet to deal with the warrior class...' in the first place. Doubtless, there were other considerations, like Hideyoshi's own ambitions/megalomania, lack of legitimacy from low birth, his late lord Oda Nobunaga's dreams of further conquests, etc. but, again, those aren't factors in the 1700s and aligns with my point that Japan has only ever militarily invaded the Korean peninsula and attacked its armies for the sake of annexing it once in the last thousand years (or in all of history, possibly).

Again, it's not a usual thing for Japan to attack the mainland. Historically, they've been politically and militarily uninvolved with China and Korea for the vast majority of the last thousand years. The Imjin War and the 1800-1900s were exceptions rather than the norm.

I would imagine them being ignorant, maybe even oblivious to the entire change, until the Japanese Attacka them.

But, I would imagine the Koreans being more aware of the situation, and maybe even they try to modernize as well

Ah, that's more dependent on court politics. I'm not the best versed in Joseon court intrigue but King Yeongjo's reign seemed to be manageable. Then the monarchy lost all authority and the Andong Kims pretty much ran the country, with isolationism being the name of the game for the majority of the 1800s. That said, Yeongjo banned Catholicism outright, so I doubt the Joseon court would make concerted efforts to modernise, especially with foreign influences. The Joseon didn't exactly see the Japanese in the best light, after all (vastly underestimated them prior to the Imjin War and stuck by the Qing even after Japan went through the Meiji Restoration), so it's not exactly likely they'd try to follow their example without tremendous pressure to do so (like after Japan beat up the Qing and forced the Joseon out of the Qing tributary system, which led to the creation of the short lived Korean Empire. Anything short of that and enough of the Joseon court would be resistant to radical reform that nothing would get done).

 

[GameBawesome]

I keep hearing talk about the Dutch, the Spanish, and even the Portuguese opening up Japan in the 1700s, but I would think the the British, more specifically the British East India Company opening up Japan

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

I keep hearing talk about the Dutch, the Spanish, and even the Portuguese opening up Japan in the 1700s, but I would think the the British, more specifically the British East India Company opening up Japan

To trade what for what? The problem with any trade with Japan (as it was with China) is that it was a constant drain on the western stock of precious metals. That was a constant restriction on any trade.

 

[bernardz]

What about an expansion South and East by Japan?

Indonesia, New Zealand, Australia and the Pacific Islands all they would face is a relatively weak Holland.

Imagine New Zealand and Australia colonised by Japan.

 

[GameBawesome]

What about an expansion South and East by Japan?

Indonesia, New Zealand, Australia and the Pacific Islands all they would face is a relatively weak Holland.

Imagine New Zealand and Australia colonised by Japan.

I would think that too.

Japan may have some hard time in Indochina, but I can see them taking a bit of Indonesia from the Dutch. The Philippines from the Spanish, depends on the Logistics.

Australia and New Zealand is a if. New Zealand is too far, and inhabited by the Maori. They may have a better time at Australia, but it does look kinda barren, aside from some of the coast

 

[bernardz]

Japan may have some hard time in Indochina, but I can see them taking a bit of Indonesia from the Dutch.

I cannot see the Dutch having the power to stop Japan in this POD. The Japanese have much more manpower and are most closer to Indonesia. As it was the Dutch used Japanese mercenaries to hold Indonesia in this period. I suppose it depends on how good the Japanese navy is here.

The Philippines from the Spanish, depends on the Logistics.

Similarly here although Spain has much more manpower and money.

Australia and New Zealand is a if. New Zealand is too far, and inhabited by the Maori. They may have a better time at Australia, but it does look kinda barren, aside from some of the coast

Much closer than Britain and France.

 

[fluttersky]

For Japanese expansion, I think a settler colony in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon/Washington/BC) would be likely– that region has very little European settlement at this time, and is relatively close to Japan.

 

[GameBawesome]

I wondering if the Japanese would send an Ambassadors and create embessies in various European Countries like Hasekura?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasekura_Tsunenaga

 

[GameBawesome]

Also, what would become of the Samurai? Would they be given muskets and sent to various Asian countries and European East Asian Colonies to try to create an Early Japanese Empire?

 

[GameBawesome]

Also, what would happen to Japanese Feudalism? Would it remain, or would it end later on?

 

[GameBawesome]

If Japan opened up earlier, could it Industrialize earlier around the Industrial Revolution?

 

[Timmy811]

Japan underwent a lot of internal economic growth during the 18th and early 19th centuries that put them in the position to successfully industrialize.

Hard to tell how an earlier opening would effect this.

 

[Tanc49]

Japan and Vietnam had many historic ties (big community in Danang I recall) and this time period is when the Nguyen dynasty is overthrown by the Tay Son.
Instead of asking the French, maybe Gia Long asks Japan for help in retaking the throne?

 

[GameBawesome]

Would Japan make tributary states or vassal states out of various Asian countries? Or just conquer them?

 

[BBadolato]

Would Japan make tributary states or vassal states out of various Asian countries? Or just conquer them?

It cannot do that without serious reforms, as well reasons than to just paint the map. The Japanese have not been at large scale war the 1590's or early 1600's give or take what you see Sekigahara as if we do not count the Siege of Osaka in 1614/15.

 

[Arcavia]

To trade what for what? The problem with any trade with Japan (as it was with China) is that it was a constant drain on the western stock of precious metals. That was a constant restriction on any trade.

I mean, if nothing else, let the poppies flow from Bengal...

However, as is shown by OTL Opium Wars, an opening based on forcing the drug trade might not work out all that great.

As for other goods, perhaps a transpacific fur trade? If the Russians somehow got more people out to Vladivostok sooner, then they might have some luck, but they really don't have the power projection required to force Japan. That being said, if the Japanese do get involved in a transpacific trade, it may well result in people looking for the Northwest Passage from the Western end. Are the profits from the Japanese trade enough to justify the risk of that approach?

Also, what would become of the Samurai? Would they be given muskets and sent to various Asian countries and European East Asian Colonies to try to create an Early Japanese Empire?

Also, what would happen to Japanese Feudalism? Would it remain, or would it end later on?

Pretty sure its generally frowned upon to post several times in a row like that.

More generally, I imagine that it might be more likely for one of the subsidiary clans to actively turn to the West. If they got a good trade agreement with Britain or Spain, they could get a military edge over the Shogunate, and the underdog clans certainly had more incentive to upset the status quo. From there, you could see broad social reforms, though possibly taking a different tack to OTL.

Edit: In reference to the earlier questions about whether 18th century European ships had a tech advantage or not, I would believe so. It was this period when the Ship of the Line really came into its own, and pursuant to that sail plans became more efficient IIRC and coppering became standard practice. You also saw the use of citrus to combat scurvy becoming conventional, greatly increasing crew efficiency, particularly for long-range missions like a European power opening Japan. Compared to Japanese boarding tactics, the line of battle was in most ways a superior tactic, since it enabled actual coordination of firepower. I'm not sure what sorts of punishment Japanese vessels were designed to handle at this time, but I'd guess that it wasn't a full broadside from a 74-gun ship of the line. So yes, European vessels are superior by this time in most respects.

The exception, however, seems to be littoral combat. IIRC most Japanese vessels had at least the possibility if not the necessity of oar power, which is especially useful when navigating close to land since it alleviates the danger posed by a lee shore. A sailing ship's maneuverability would be curtailed in such operations, and no admiral in his right mind would attempt to enforce line of battle in an unfamiliar coast. Here, in a more chaotic situation, oar powered boarding vessels will have a more even playing field, though they'll still have problems dealing with a Ship of the Lines firepower. Compare it to the idiotic American attempts at using littoral gunboats for coastal defense in the War of 1812, though I imagine that Samurai wearing devil masks will have great effect if they ever actually manage to board. In this situation, ideally, a European admiral would have galleys that could negate the advantages of the Japanese littoral fleet, but it seems unlikely to bring galleys from afar. The steam engine negates the vulnerabilities of wind propulsion, which is why it would still be important in this scenario, but even wind-driven Line-of-battle ships will have an advantage over east Asian vessels.

 

[Faeelin]

I would imagine them being ignorant, maybe even oblivious to the entire change, until the Japanese Attacka them.

Why?

I know we all believe in the "ignorant and inward China," but the Qing Empire in the 18th century was busy conquering Central Eurasia. If Japan builds a navy and seizes China's Ryukan vassal, they will respond.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

What if in an alternate scenerio, a European power, sends a large fleet and opens up Japan, under the Tokogawa Shogunate, around 1700s -1760s? Japan maintains independence, but makes unequal treaties with the Europeans (for now).

No one would be able to dictate unequal treaties on Japan in 1700s.
Could someone in 1700s irritate Japan enough that the Japanese decide being proactive and fighting the barbarians on their own ground is better, and some Shogunate reforms, such as Kyoho, incorporate dropping sakoku?

Who?
The European players...
Spaniards are settled in Philippines, and left Japanese alone in 17th century. In 18th century, they have Bourbon Reforms. Any review of Philippines, and Japanese policy, which might provoke them?
Britons - the Anson's fleet of circumnavigation. How would they impress Japan?
Russians - arriving in Okhota Sea. Anything they might do in 18th century to open contacts?