Not sure why they would TBH. But let's say it happens. The Anti-Comintern pact is signed, so Germany is likely to be aiding Japan in some way, but isn't obligated to take direct action. Italy too, once it signs on, would also try and help someway, perhaps sending an expeditionary corps or some symbolic aid.Say Japan invades the Soviet Union in 1937 instead of China.
How would this impact Europe
Would this impact the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact
What would be the impact on the Eastern front
Could Japan gain outer Manchuria and Sakhalin?but the Japanese gain some ground
Sakhalin for sure given their naval dominance, probably outer Manchuria too given the layout of the Far East rail lines (cut it in one place further west near the border, Chita, or to the East at Kuybyshevka, and Outer Manchuria is out of supply). See the rail line situation in 1945:Could Japan gain outer Manchuria and Sakhalin?
Japan had 600,000 men mobilized in 1937 and 1,000,000 in 1939.
Meanwhile the USSR was in the middle of purging itself in 1937, IIRC.
Stalin won't be able to partake in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
Populations in 1939:
Japanese Empire: 101,471,000
Japan: 71,380,000Soviet Union: 168,524,000
Korea: 24,326,000
Taiwan: 5,765,000
Manchukuo at its peak provided 170,000 to 220,000 men to Japan, but they understandably weren't very enthused soldiers.
By 1940, Manchukuo had somewhere between 36 and 44 million people.
During the war, the USSR mobilized 12,500,000 men.
Japan mobilized 6,095,00 men.
Even if the Japanese capture the railway, cut the Soviets off in the east, and manage to march west and take everything up to Lake Baikal, what next? The Soviets have more men and more manufacturing capacity and an absolute willingness to throw wave after wave of bodies at the outnumbered Japanese.
Maybe the Japanese create a White Russian satellite state and offer Soviet defectors protection if the serve this state. That'd be one way to even the odds a tiny bit I suppose, although it hardly evens things.
Here's a big what if: What happens if the Japanese take over Kolmya and other gulags? Imagine the global horror upon the Japanese publicizing the horrors there.
I don’t think the Soviet purges we’re reaching the Far Eastern military districts yet.
How would outer Mongolian forces perform? Would the Soviets convince Chinese communist troops to attack the Japanese flank or reinforce Mongolian or soviet defensive efforts?
I don’t think the Soviet purges we’re reaching the Far Eastern military districts yet.
How would outer Mongolian forces perform? Would the Soviets convince Chinese communist troops to attack the Japanese flank or reinforce Mongolian or soviet defensive efforts?
ussr might have had more men but logistically couldnt support that many in the far east.
Spanish Civil War might be shortened with reduced Soviet involvement? (assuming they would send the barest minimum of equipment?)
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Meanwhile the USSR was in the middle of purging itself in 1937, IIRC. ...
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IMO, most likely outcome is the Soviets use the opportunity to build up a new officer corps where the wheat is separated from the chaff, with disastrous results for the Germans later on. ...l
IIRC it never hit the Far East forces except for a few of the senior officers and then only after they failed in the border battles.The purges were still confined to senior leaders, & those who were clearly not of the Stalinist line of Marxist thinking. The crippling levels of arrests & midlevel officer dismissals/imprisonment occurred 1938-39.
Very true.Actual operational & combat experience will count for something, tho fighting the Japanese of 1937-38 would not be the same as fighting the Wehrmacht of 1941. Purges aside the largest weakness of the Red Army in 1941 was the effect of expansion from a bit over 100 infantry divisions in September 1939 to over 300 in 1941. The training organization could not cope with such, and several fundamental changes in doctrine and mobilization plans complicated things. Even if a not a single officer were purged training standards could not have been kept up to a level that could cope with the Wehrmacht of 1941.
Maybe...though without the industrial expansion of the later 5 year plans that will be tough to properly supply and will mean mostly locking in production older equipment that would be enough against the Japanese, but pretty bad against the Wehrmacht. I'd question how much it would help overall doctrine and organization given the likely level of casualties and unique circumstances in the East vs. Europe. It might distort doctrine, as armored warfare isn't going to be a major factor in the fighting against Japan. Plus there is the issue of how much supply and reinforcements could be pushed down the TSRR, which throttles the Soviet ability to conduct the method of war they evolved IOTL fighting in Europe, while ITTL they also need to keep up a large quality force in Europe to deal with the potential of an invasion. Likely the situation in the East means the newest and least quality forces get sent to supplement the resources already existing in the Far East, while the best are retained in the west to prevent a potential western invasion (Stalin was ever fearful of a two front war). Given those sorts of constraints on the Soviet war effort and the likely high casualty rates it seems to me like this will distort Soviet doctrine and training to try and keep up with having to quickly replace pre-war forces in the area with large masses of quickly and poorly trained conscripts with limited material support.A war with Japan might offset that with a earlier mobilization/expansion, starting 1937 vs late 1939. That could lead to better doctrine, a more coherent training program, and slower more organized expansion.
Spanish Civil War might be shortened with reduced Soviet involvement? (assuming they would send the barest minimum of equipment?)
If Japan sends troops in force any Soviet involvement in the Spanish Civil War ends the moment Japan seriously invades.
.... It might distort doctrine, as armored warfare isn't going to be a major factor in the fighting against Japan. ...
There were many deficiencies outside armor doctrine in 1941. Direct current experience would push the Red Army towards up dating infantry, artillery, reconissance, & logistics doctrines. & not taking some of the wrong course taken 1939-41.