Japan heads north 1937, impact on Europe

[YusaEmi]

What would the Japanese goals be? And how willing would Stalin be able willing to concede those demands?

If all the IJA demands is Northern Karafuto and outer Manchuria, Stalin could just give just see the war as too much of a hassle and let them have those territories. The issue for the Soviets is logistics, they have only one very long railroad to reinforce the far east, and despite popular belief that the Soviets "beat" the Japanese at Khalkin Gol, they did so at the cost of twice the amount of men, planes and 9 times the loss in armor while being a larger force.

The IJA would never be able to cross all of Russia and march on Moscow, but they can capture the far east, entrench themselves and turn it into a defensive war pushing the Soviets logistics to their breaking point.

 

[Borya]

What would the Japanese goals be? And how willing would Stalin be able willing to concede those demands?

If all the IJA demands is Northern Karafuto and outer Manchuria, Stalin could just give just see the war as too much of a hassle and let them have those territories. The issue for the Soviets is logistics, they have only one very long railroad to reinforce the far east, and despite popular belief that the Soviets "beat" the Japanese at Khalkin Gol, they did so at the cost of twice the amount of men, planes and 9 times the loss in armor while being a larger force.

The IJA would never be able to cross all of Russia and march on Moscow, but they can capture the far east, entrench themselves and turn it into a defensive war pushing the Soviets logistics to their breaking point.

Single railroad. It high capacity double or triple track. Believe me it can move a lot of trains. Long heavy trains. In war time military trains get high prioryty.

 

[SpicyJuan]

Germany invades ITTL to claim the victory they'd be unable to achieve on their own.

Did you change your mind on this recently or has this always been your position?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Did you change your mind on this recently or has this always been your position?

This was my full quote:

Likely the fighting drags out and neither side and really defeat the other, but the Japanese gain some ground and it ends with both sides exhausted and not in a great position to fight anyone else for a while after. Of course the Japanese could then jump back in if/when Germany invades ITTL to claim the victory they'd be unable to achieve on their own.

It is contextual to this scenario, which AFAIK we've never discussed before.

 

[SpicyJuan]

It is contextual to this scenario, which AFAIK we've never discussed before.

Wow, I have no idea how I completely misread that. I thought you were saying that the Germans could never achieve victory over the USSR on their own, not the Japanese.

 

[YusaEmi]

Single railroad. It high capacity double or triple track. Believe me it can move a lot of trains. Long heavy trains. In war time military trains get high prioryty.

It could easily be destroyed by long ranged bombers. Which would severely handicap the Soviets.

 

[bguy]

It could easily be destroyed by long ranged bombers. Which would severely handicap the Soviets.

It's pretty difficult to knock out a railroad by aerial bombing. The Germans bombed one of the Murmansk rail lines more than 100 times in 1941 alone and still couldn't keep it shut down as the Soviets just kept repairing it.

https://books.google.com/books?id=3a6dCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA224&lpg=PA224&dq=SOVIETS+REPAIRED+RAILROADS+BARBAROSSA&source=bl&ots=AuU08sXsrB&sig=ACfU3U38KH5ATRrFJeGBEiya91MJCcwydg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjNreP7163lAhUIWq0KHZspA7IQ6AEwD3oECAsQAQ#v=onepage&q=SOVIETS REPAIRED RAILROADS BARBAROSSA&f=false

 

[Daylight Savings]

There's a been a number of figures on IJA forces available, but I imagine there would be a heavy amount of involvement from the IJN especially around Vladivostok. What kind of carrier and battleship resources would be available at the outbreak and what is the likelihood of them actually coordinating with the IJA?

 

[Borya]

It could easily be destroyed by long ranged bombers. Which would severely handicap the Soviets.

Problem whit that Japan did not have good bombers. And in Soviet Union railway worker would work extra shifts for war efort. Most out of patriotism some of of fear to be sent to gulag.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

There's a been a number of figures on IJA forces available, but I imagine there would be a heavy amount of involvement from the IJN especially around Vladivostok. What kind of carrier and battleship resources would be available at the outbreak and what is the likelihood of them actually coordinating with the IJA?

The Japanese carrier force was not very developed at the time, but the surface fleet was very powerful. Look at what it was able to do on the Chinese coast during the initial invasion. For something as complex and significant as a war against Russia, there would surely be a great deal of joint planning ahead of time as there was before the invasion of southeast Asia (the rivalry was intense but not at the memetic levels it is sometimes portrayed as being).

Problem whit that Japan did not have good bombers. And in Soviet Union railway worker would work extra shifts for war efort. Most out of patriotism some of of fear to be sent to gulag.

The Red Army would have to gather its forces and supplies around Chita because Primorye is too vulnerable and would be quickly cut off. Also since 1935 the Japanese Navy had the G3M bomber which had a range of 4400 km, and from 1938 the Army had the Ki-21, which was considerably superior to the Tupolev SB.

 

[Borya]

The Japanese carrier force was not very developed at the time, but the surface fleet was very powerful. Look at what it was able to do on the Chinese coast during the initial invasion. For something as complex and significant as a war against Russia, there would surely be a great deal of joint planning ahead of time as there was before the invasion of southeast Asia (the rivalry was intense but not at the memetic levels it is sometimes portrayed as being).



The Red Army would have to gather its forces and supplies around Chita because Primorye is too vulnerable and would be quickly cut off. Also since 1935 the Japanese Navy had the G3M bomber which had a range of 4400 km, and from 1938 the Army had the Ki-21, which was considerably superior to the Tupolev SB.

Staging area can be Irkutsk Chita Ulsan-Ude Habarovsk.
Since Japan is naval poverty Soviet Union have to develop powerful navy. reason project was canceled Odessa and Sevastopol get captured Leningrad was cut off. In war whit Germany navy did not play major role. But there was plans for powerful ships of Soviet Union class.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

Staging area can be Irkutsk Chita Ulsan-Ude Habarovsk.
Since Japan is naval poverty Soviet Union have to develop powerful navy. reason project was canceled Odessa and Sevastopol get captured Leningrad was cut off. In war whit Germany navy did not play major role. But there was plans for powerful ships of Soviet Union class.

I don't think the Soviet Union had the industrial capacity or technological know-how to build a fleet capable of matching Japan's, and even if it could, there would be no way of supplying it thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean. It would suffer the same fate as Rozhdestvensky in 1905, only at the hands of carrier aircraft rather than battleships.

 

[Borya]

Why you think we lose again. Once we kick Japan of continent. We need good navy to invade Japan and netrulizem for ever

 

[Oldbill]

The supply bottleneck for the Soviets is around Lake Baikal, at the railway tunnels. These cannot be destroyed via an air campaign by the bombers the Japanese have at this time. IF they can somehow move to take that area, they then have to hold it. Possible, but iffy. Attacking Vladivostok via the IJN is suicidal, the defenses are too formidable. They can degrade it, but it would have to be taken by land. Again, possible, but even more difficult. The IJA is going to have to defeat the Soviets Armies, while simultaneously holding the Lake Baikal area AND keeping any forces from heading south through Mongolia. How much Mongolia had been developed by the Soviets in the interwar era I don't know. That last option may not be viable anyhow.
The only way I can see this happening is if Japan mobilizes quickly and gets enough gear and boots on the ground in theater fast enough.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

Why you think we lose again. Once we kick Japan of continent. We need good navy to invade Japan and netrulizem for ever

1. The Trans-Siberian Railway did not have the capacity to supply an army big enough to defeat Japan. Also, because the Far East was not economically self-sufficient, its civilian economy was dependent on the Trans-Siberian Railway.

2. Because of the closeness of the Trans-Siberian Railway to the border of Manchu-guo, Soviet forces east of Skovorodino could easily be isolated (the BAM did not exist yet). American historian D.M. Giangreco has stated that the position of the Red Army in Primorye was even more precarious than the US Army's in the Philippines during 1941 and 42. Fortifications were strong, especially at Vladivostok, but without supplies they could not resist forever.

3. Therefore, the main concentration point for Soviet forces and supplies would be around Chita, and the front line would be in Mongolia and the region to the west of the Great Khingan Mountains (Borzya, Dauriya). The Red Army would be fighting an offensive war at the end of an extremely long supply line dependent on a single railroad against the Japanese, who are fighting defensively "in their own backyard." In Manchu-guo there were many railways with plenty of access to ports in Korea.

4. Because of the above, the Red Army would not have the supplies needed to launch a counteroffensive into Manchuria. Even in 1945, the Soviet Union needed the help of the United States to gather the means necessary to attack within 3 months of Germany's defeat (Operation Milepost). Recall in particular that the 6th Guards Tank Army very quickly ran out of fuel in the steppe and needed to be transported by train to Port Arthur after Japan surrendered.

5. The Soviet Navy had basically no means to fight Japan. At the outbreak of war it was small and mostly consisted of submarines and littoral craft. Against this the Japanese had the strongest navy in the world (by 1941/42) and were the masters of carrier warfare. Not only industry and logistics, but also the doctrine and experience needed to fight a carrier war in the Pacific were completely absent on the Soviet side.

6. Because of these factors, the Soviet Union physically could not approach Japan after the initial conquest of Primorye and Vladivostok. The war would be a bloody stalemate in western Manchuria and would be decided by outside events (Hitler's aggression, American economic sanctions against Japan, etc).

 

[Borya]

1. The Trans-Siberian Railway did not have the capacity to supply an army big enough to defeat Japan. Also, because the Far East was not economically self-sufficient, its civilian economy was dependent on the Trans-Siberian Railway.

2. Because of the closeness of the Trans-Siberian Railway to the border of Manchu-guo, Soviet forces east of Skovorodino could easily be isolated (the BAM did not exist yet). American historian D.M. Giangreco has stated that the position of the Red Army in Primorye was even more precarious than the US Army's in the Philippines during 1941 and 42. Fortifications were strong, especially at Vladivostok, but without supplies they could not resist forever.

3. Therefore, the main concentration point for Soviet forces and supplies would be around Chita, and the front line would be in Mongolia and the region to the west of the Great Khingan Mountains (Borzya, Dauriya). The Red Army would be fighting an offensive war at the end of an extremely long supply line dependent on a single railroad against the Japanese, who are fighting defensively "in their own backyard." In Manchu-guo there were many railways with plenty of access to ports in Korea.

4. Because of the above, the Red Army would not have the supplies needed to launch a counteroffensive into Manchuria. Even in 1945, the Soviet Union needed the help of the United States to gather the means necessary to attack within 3 months of Germany's defeat (Operation Milepost). Recall in particular that the 6th Guards Tank Army very quickly ran out of fuel in the steppe and needed to be transported by train to Port Arthur after Japan surrendered.

5. The Soviet Navy had basically no means to fight Japan. At the outbreak of war it was small and mostly consisted of submarines and littoral craft. Against this the Japanese had the strongest navy in the world (by 1941/42) and were the masters of carrier warfare. Not only industry and logistics, but also the doctrine and experience needed to fight a carrier war in the Pacific were completely absent on the Soviet side.

6. Because of these factors, the Soviet Union physically could not approach Japan after the initial conquest of Primorye and Vladivostok. The war would be a bloody stalemate in western Manchuria and would be decided by outside events (Hitler's aggression, American economic sanctions against Japan, etc).

But we not talking 1942 we talking 1937. And naval war only needed if Japan thrown of continent. And do not surrender. It was going to thought in Mongolia and Manchukuo. I read books how they increase capacity of transsib during wwii

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

But we not talking 1942 we talking 1937. And naval war only needed if Japan thrown of continent. And do not surrender. It was going to thought in Mongolia and Manchukuo. I read books how they increase capacity of transsib during wwii

How could the Soviet Union manage to build a big fleet between 1937 and 1942? Also, to my knowledge the Soviets made little effort to improve the Trans-Siberian Railway during the war years, with the exception of the abandoned BAM project. I do know that they attempted to increase the production of munitions in Komsomolsk beginning in 1940 and at Irkutsk and Ulan-Ude thereafter, but am not aware of any additional track being laid.

In any regard, most of my figures on the Trans-Siberian Railway were already from 1944 and 1945.

 

[Borya]

How could the Soviet Union manage to build a big fleet between 1937 and 1942? Also, to my knowledge the Soviets made little effort to improve the Trans-Siberian Railway during the war years, with the exception of the abandoned BAM project. I do know that they attempted to increase the production of munitions in Komsomolsk beginning in 1940 and at Irkutsk and Ulan-Ude thereafter, but am not aware of any additional track being laid.

In any regard, most of my figures on the Trans-Siberian Railway were already from 1944 and 1945.

Better command and control. One book is fiction about live of 2 train drivers. others college text books whit examples from war railway.

 

[raharris1973]

I like this exploration, but one wonders how Japan let's itself get drawn into a sustained war with the USSR in 1937.

In OTL, the Japanese were not even intending or wanting a full-blown war with China, they just wanted to nibble at this county or that, and when the Chinese pushed back more than expected, they escalated. But I don't think the Japanese would be under any illusions that they could get away with stealing Soviet provinces or Outer Mongolia. I think they would expect resistance, and that would tend to restrain them from ever attempting theater-level offensives.

Particularly, because at this time the Japanese know they are doing all the heavy anti-Soviet fighting. It's nice to have an Anti-Comintern Pact with Germany and Italy, but they don't border the USSR. It's nice to have military and intelligence exchanges with the Poles, but they can't seriously tie down alot of the Red Army.

Attacking the Soviet Union in 1937 is like kicking Russia when they aren't even really down. Unless you count the purges, but that means placing *alot*, a whole lot of faith in damage from the purges when you know that the Soviets can outproduce you by alot in land armaments.

 

[walmart]

I like this exploration, but one wonders how Japan let's itself get drawn into a sustained war with the USSR in 1937.

I was thinking the February 26 incident is successfully, the Kodoha faction comes to power with it's ideology of Northern Expansion and launches an attack on the Soviet Union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_26_Incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokushin-ron