Introduction and Prologue
For obvious reasons, Indonesia circa 1965 seems to be a popular choice on these forum. My idea is about something more recent.
IRL, in November 1997, Suharto goes on a foreign trip which includes attending the APEC Summit, visiting some African countries, and even going on an Umrah in Saudi Arabia. When he arrives in Jakarta on 29th November 1997, Suharto collapsed. The diagnosis is sketchy but it is widely believed to be a minor stroke.
In this ATL, I'm proposing that the stroke is major and Suharto dies. Leaving Vice President Try Sutrisno to take over as the third President of Indonesia.
A little about Try Sutrisno:
-A General in the Indonesian Army.
-Not of Suharto's generation of officers, belonging instead to the generation of officers who began their career in late 50s/early 60s.
-Did create an impression with Suharto and his generals in 1972, when as a major he was chosen to speak representing the younger generation of officers and make a pledge to preserve the values of the Suharto's generation of officer corps.
-Became Suharto's aide-de-camp (1974-1978) and became Suharto's golden boy among the younger generation of officers.
-Was second in command at the Nusa Tenggara Regional Command which oversaw East Timor (1978-1979) and held regional commands at South Sumatra (1979-1982) and Jakarta (1982-1985). Then Deputy Army Chief of Staff (1985-1986) and Army Chief of Staff (1986-1988). Military career culminated in being appointed Commander of the Armed Forces (1988-1993).
-Was imposed by the Armed Forces on Suharto as a vice president in 1993.
-Cracked down/massacred Islamist anti-government protesters in Jakarta in 1984. Put his support behind the shootings at Santa Cruz Incident in East Timor.
-Seen to be a figure that could be accepted by all as a future leader in Suharto's Indonesia. A loyal Army man but who is a the same time a devout Muslim. At the same time, does not have any big ideas for the future.
Some things to consider:
-The Vice Presidency during Suharto's New Order was a place to reward those who are loyal but politically safe people. It was often speculated that if Suharto died mid-term, the vice president would succeed to the presidency but would only be an interim rather than a permanent leader.
-By this stage in Suharto's presidency, certain cabinet ministers (Habibie, Harmoko), officers (Wiranto), and family members (Daughter Tutut and son-in-law Maj. Gen. Prabowo) were either seen as or positioning themselves to be successors to Suharto. All are jockeying for position with/against each other. Suharto's death means that the time has come for them to make the final push for the presidency.
-In November 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis was beginning to be felt in Indonesia but not to the point where riots were on the horizon. People were beginning to be laid off and beginning to withdraw cash at the bank but not yet at the point where there was panic buying in the Supermarket.
-Suharto's sixth term was due to end in March 1998 when the People's Consultative Assembly will assemble to elect a president and vice president. A Suharto death in late November 1997 gives Try 3 months to consolidate and try to make his position permanent.
Some Questions:
-How would Try consolidate his position to ensure that his presidency is not an interim one?
-How would Try handle his fellow presidential contenders? Who does he ally with? Who does he see as his main rival?
-How would Try balance the various institutions and competing interests (Armed Forces, Golkar, cabinet, business interests, Suharto children)? How would he deal with opposition figures?
-Would Try be able to guide Indonesia through the Asian Financial Crisis where Suharto failed IRL?
-Would Try be able to initiate political reform and give Indonesia a less turbulent political transition unlike IRL?
IRL, in November 1997, Suharto goes on a foreign trip which includes attending the APEC Summit, visiting some African countries, and even going on an Umrah in Saudi Arabia. When he arrives in Jakarta on 29th November 1997, Suharto collapsed. The diagnosis is sketchy but it is widely believed to be a minor stroke.
In this ATL, I'm proposing that the stroke is major and Suharto dies. Leaving Vice President Try Sutrisno to take over as the third President of Indonesia.
A little about Try Sutrisno:
-A General in the Indonesian Army.
-Not of Suharto's generation of officers, belonging instead to the generation of officers who began their career in late 50s/early 60s.
-Did create an impression with Suharto and his generals in 1972, when as a major he was chosen to speak representing the younger generation of officers and make a pledge to preserve the values of the Suharto's generation of officer corps.
-Became Suharto's aide-de-camp (1974-1978) and became Suharto's golden boy among the younger generation of officers.
-Was second in command at the Nusa Tenggara Regional Command which oversaw East Timor (1978-1979) and held regional commands at South Sumatra (1979-1982) and Jakarta (1982-1985). Then Deputy Army Chief of Staff (1985-1986) and Army Chief of Staff (1986-1988). Military career culminated in being appointed Commander of the Armed Forces (1988-1993).
-Was imposed by the Armed Forces on Suharto as a vice president in 1993.
-Cracked down/massacred Islamist anti-government protesters in Jakarta in 1984. Put his support behind the shootings at Santa Cruz Incident in East Timor.
-Seen to be a figure that could be accepted by all as a future leader in Suharto's Indonesia. A loyal Army man but who is a the same time a devout Muslim. At the same time, does not have any big ideas for the future.
Some things to consider:
-The Vice Presidency during Suharto's New Order was a place to reward those who are loyal but politically safe people. It was often speculated that if Suharto died mid-term, the vice president would succeed to the presidency but would only be an interim rather than a permanent leader.
-By this stage in Suharto's presidency, certain cabinet ministers (Habibie, Harmoko), officers (Wiranto), and family members (Daughter Tutut and son-in-law Maj. Gen. Prabowo) were either seen as or positioning themselves to be successors to Suharto. All are jockeying for position with/against each other. Suharto's death means that the time has come for them to make the final push for the presidency.
-In November 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis was beginning to be felt in Indonesia but not to the point where riots were on the horizon. People were beginning to be laid off and beginning to withdraw cash at the bank but not yet at the point where there was panic buying in the Supermarket.
-Suharto's sixth term was due to end in March 1998 when the People's Consultative Assembly will assemble to elect a president and vice president. A Suharto death in late November 1997 gives Try 3 months to consolidate and try to make his position permanent.
Some Questions:
-How would Try consolidate his position to ensure that his presidency is not an interim one?
-How would Try handle his fellow presidential contenders? Who does he ally with? Who does he see as his main rival?
-How would Try balance the various institutions and competing interests (Armed Forces, Golkar, cabinet, business interests, Suharto children)? How would he deal with opposition figures?
-Would Try be able to guide Indonesia through the Asian Financial Crisis where Suharto failed IRL?
-Would Try be able to initiate political reform and give Indonesia a less turbulent political transition unlike IRL?
Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)
Prologue:
Prologue:
4th February 1997:
"But in unexpected circumstances, when people can't tell when they're going to get into a misadventure or pass away, there's a mechanism for that.
So if the president is permanently incapacitated, the vice president will therefore be the president to complete the remainder of the presidential term. If the remainder of the term is 2 years, then the new president's term will be 2 years.
As such, this new president who is previously the vice president and who has ascended to the office, he will now hold the mandate originally given to his predecessor because this predecessor has passed away", said President Soeharto to the Golkar Council of Patrons iftar dinner meeting with Vice President Try Sutrisno looking on.
---
What Soeharto says above is a transcript of what he says in 9:48-10:20 of the following video. The camera zooms in on Try's face as Soeharto says all this.
"But in unexpected circumstances, when people can't tell when they're going to get into a misadventure or pass away, there's a mechanism for that.
So if the president is permanently incapacitated, the vice president will therefore be the president to complete the remainder of the presidential term. If the remainder of the term is 2 years, then the new president's term will be 2 years.
As such, this new president who is previously the vice president and who has ascended to the office, he will now hold the mandate originally given to his predecessor because this predecessor has passed away", said President Soeharto to the Golkar Council of Patrons iftar dinner meeting with Vice President Try Sutrisno looking on.
---
What Soeharto says above is a transcript of what he says in 9:48-10:20 of the following video. The camera zooms in on Try's face as Soeharto says all this.
Last edited: