14th April 2003:
There were lot of cameras snapping as President Try Sutrisno shook hands with King of Thailand Bhumipol Adulyadej. First Lady Tuti Setiawati and Queen of Thailand Sirikit were also there but the focus was very much on the two men and the cameras snapped away at them. Try exchanged pleasantries with the King but got the sense that the real conversation would not be with him. From the Grand Palace, Try and his entourage went by car for a short distance to Si Sao Thewes and the residence of President of the Privy Council Prem Tinsulanonda. Try saluted Prem when he saw the latter and the latter returned the salute and began to bow as he shook Try’s hand though Try prevented him from doing so.
Prem told Try that his visit to Thailand comes at an interesting time. Try laughed and said that it seems that way judging by all that he’s read prior to arrival and what he’s experienced thus far. But it was at this juncture that Prem became serious.
“You are a friend to this country, Mr. President”, Prem said “And I want to assure you that whether this or any future government, Thailand’s policy towards Indonesia will not change.”
“I am thankful for that, General Prem” Try replied, knowing what Prem was alluding to but trying to keep it light “Though if you excuse me, the laws of time and space only allows me to deal with one government at a time, in this case the present one.”
Try laughed at his own comment though Prem remained serious.
“This country is like a beautiful race horse that has a jockey riding it to guide it to victory in race” Prem explained “But a jockey is not a horse owner and when a jockey starts to act like he’s the horse owner he needs to realize that jockeys come and go...”
As he got into the car with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat to depart from Prem’s house for Government House, Try looked thoughtful. When Edi asked Try how the conversation went, Try told it at which point Edi took a deep breath.
“That bad, huh?” Edi asked before shaking his head “Of all the times you have to be here…”
Try was silent for a while as the car continued to make its way down the road.
“On the other hand, since I’m here”, Try began “I might as well try to make something of it…”
Try headed to the Government house where he and the ministers he brought along were due to have a work meeting with Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra and some of his ministers.
Try brought with him Minister of Foreign Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Transportation Chappy Hakim, Head of the BKPM Mari Pangestu, and Edi Sudrajat. Thaksin brought with him Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Defence Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Finance Banharn Silpa-Archa, Minister of Interior Somkid Jantusripitak, Minister of Foreign Affairs Surakiart Sathirathai, Minister of Commerce Adisai Bodharamik, Minister of Transportation Suriya Juangroongruangkit and Secretary General of the Cabinet Wissanu Krea-angam.
The meeting produced, among others, the following agreements:
*Ari Sudewo and Chavalit signed an intelligence-sharing agreement between BAKIN and the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) for intelligence related to terrorism, religious extremism, and separatism.
*Siswono and Suriya signed an agreement for Thailand State Railway to import locomotives, carriages, and ballast hoppers from Indonesia’s Railway Industries (INKA).
*Chappy Hakim and Suriya signed an agreement which grants permission for Indonesian low-cost carriers to establish routes to Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Phuket.
*Mari Pangestu and Adisai signed an agreement between the BKPM and Thailand’s Board of Investment to conduct exchange visits between regional governments in Sumatra and in Southern Thailand, the areas that had been marked for cooperation in the Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT). Thaksin half-jokingly said, and Try concurred, that Thailand and Indonesia were not going to wait for Malaysia forever.
15th April 2003:
The morning saw Try and some of his entourage head out from Bangkok International Airport on a short flight to Utapao Airport before heading to Sattahip Naval Base. Here, Try visited HTMS Chakri Naruebet, Thailand’s Aircraft Carrier shaking hands and asking questions with the personnel about the ship. The Thai Government was represented by Chavalit. In between chatting about the aircraft carrier and reminiscing about old times (Chavalit was Commander-in-Chief of the Army in Thailand at the same time Try as Army Chief of Staff in Indonesia), Try noticed that Chavalit was trying to get the two of them out of earshot.
Immediately guessing what this was about, Try allowed himself to be shepherded away. Chavalit got to the point immediately rather speak in riddles, asking Try what he thought on “things”.
“I am a foreigner, General”, Try said “I shouldn’t be involved in such conversations.”
Chavalit smiled politely, his gesture seeming to say “But nevertheless we’d still like your opinion.”
“APEC is in 6 months, suppose you…change jockeys as General Prem puts it, don’t you think that APEC will be the perfect opportunity where they will be show their displeasure? That some will not attend out of displeasure or even worse?”, asked Try “That will be a big event and will add to Thailand’s profile and stature. So that’s the first concern.
The second concern, suppose if the People’s Republic of China recognizes “things” the way it recognized “things” in Cambodia in 1997 and in Myanmar last year, does that mean Thailand will start distancing itself from Indonesia and start drifting into China’s orbit the way Malaysia, Cambodia, and Myanmar has been?”
From Sattaship Naval Base, Try and his entourage headed back to Bangkok where he had lunch with Leader of the Opposition and former Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai; reminiscing about the days they tackled the Asian Financial Crisis together. Of the current situation that Thaksin was in, Chuan said that Thaksin was undoubtedly popular saying that Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party could have gotten more seats if Chuan had not called an early election and caught them still far from ready.
Chuan offered that a vote of no confidence could be attempted but not politically possible. Chavalit and Banharn, the two deputy prime ministers and leaders of TRT’s two coalition partners, could not be counted upon to cast a vote of no confidence in Thaksin much less support an alternative prime minister. That was why “other alternatives” are being considered.
It proved to be a full day, after lunch Try and Thaksin attended a meeting of Indonesian and Thai Businessmen during which the Indonesia-Thai Chamber of Commerce was declared to be found; Try and Thaksin seen affixing their signatures and declared as witnesses to the organization’s founding.
The day ended in the evening at the Indonesian Embassy in Bangkok with a watch hosted by Try and the First Lady and attended by Thaksin, their wives, Indonesians living in Bangkok, and Indonesian language students in Bangkok. They watched an episode of
Si Doel Anak Sekolahan which has been dubbed into Thai language and which had become a hit since it premiered on Thai Television in November.
16th April 2003:
After spending a part of the morning at the Saphan Khao Fruit to talk to locals and look at the quality of Thai fruit, Try headed for his working morning tea meeting at the Phitsanulok Mansion, the Prime Minister of Thailand’s official residence though as Thaksin himself explained, prime ministers do not like it there because it was allegedly haunted. Though the meeting had originally been scheduled with Marzuki and Edi attending with Try and Surakiart and Wissanu attending with Thaksin, Try requested for a one-on-one meeting. Thaksin was fine with that.
The talk covered current affairs and strategic issues. Try agreed to Thaksin’s idea that all of ASEAN’s health ministers meet in Bangkok in a few weeks’ time to discuss ASEAN’s handling of SARS. The two discussed about China taking the threat seriously and taking action against SARS; agreeing that President of China Luo Gan was not about to let his presidency began with failure to handle a crisis. They had a laugh when discussing that in the last 48 hours, China had to push Cambodia to tighten measures against SARS because the latter was still adopting a lax approach but was beginning to record SARS cases.
“3 months left until the election over there, it’s Hun Sen’s problem if the people remember how he’s handling SARS when they go to the polls”, Try said of the Prime Minister of Cambodia.
There was quiet and then Thaksin began speaking about how he was facing insurgency that is at once religious and ethnic, that is at once “religious extremism and separatism”. Try listened to Thaksin speak and waited until the latter was finished, this was why he wanted a one on one. Thaksin ended his spiel by asking Try if he would be able to send an ABRI Contingent, as was the case with the Philippines, to assist with Southern Thailand.
Try turned serious and for a second, Thaksin was worried that Try was going to say no. But what Try said was far worse.
“Resolve your situation with the Army and I’ll consider assisting with the insurgency in the South a done deaal”, Try said.
“Mr. President with all due respect, that is an internal matter…” Thaksin pleaded.
“You’ve decided to exclude them as far as your handling of the insurgency in Southern Thailand is concerned”, Try said “And if I agree to what you’re asking in the current situation, I’m giving approval to what you’re doing and if the Thai Army ends up being hostile to me because of that approval, that’s not only your problem but that also becomes my problem.”
Thaksin scoffed and stood up, pacing around the room.
“I’ve excluded them because I can’t trust them”, Thaksin snapped “The Army belongs to General Prem, General Surayud belongs to Prem, and speaking of which General Surayud has had a long tenure as Commander-in-Chief of the Army and it’s his time to go but he’s digging in his heels and resisting…”
Thaksin trailed off and Try gave him some time to compose himself.
“Your son-in-law is a 3-star Army officer is he not, Mr. President?” asked Thaksin.
“It wouldn't be a good look and the officer corps wouldn't like it if I made him Army Chief of Staff, if that’s what your asking, Mr. Prime Minister”, Try replied “Just like it’s not a good look and the officer corps wouldn't like it if you somehow secure your cousin’s appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Army.”
Thaksin slumped.
“Get them involved again in South Thailand and give them a Commander-in-Chief that both you and them can accept”, Try continued on “If you want your presence at my inauguration and me being here right now to be of any use to you in this situation, please consider what I’m saying…”
Thaksin looked he was trying to process what Try’s saying.
“Listen, I know what it feels like to have people who don’t think that you deserve to stand where you’re at and are powerful enough to do something about it” Try said “But you can do the right thing. The Thai economy’s doing well, it was Thailand which seriously pushed for AFTA to resume again, and Thailand’s hosting the APEC Summit in October…you should be a shoo-in for re-election…not picking the wrong fight and risk losing everything because of it.”
It was on that note that the meeting ended, Try urging Thaksin to think “about what I’ve just said” as he shook hands with him.
From the Prime Minister’s residence, Try and his entourage headed to Chulalangkorn University, Thailand’s oldest university. There, Try delivered a public lecture which was broadcasted live on television. In the lecture, Try said that he had chosen Thailand as the first foreign place he had intended to visit his re-election and inauguration because he considers Thailand “a close friend and partner for Indonesia in navigating this multipolar environment” and said that “on the big issues in this multipolar world, Southeast Asian nations should be in agreement with one another to avoid being used as pawns by other powers which do not have the best interest of the region at heart”.
After Chulalangkorn University it was back to the Grand Palace for a farewell call on King Bhumipol and then Bangkok International Airport for departure. He was looking out of the window as the Presidential Airplane climbed higher when Marzuki and Edi joined him.
“Think you got through to him?” asked Edi.
“I’ve named my price, I’ll help him with Southern Thailand if he makes his peace with the Army”, replied Try as he loosened his tie and massaged his head.
“I’ve told Minister Surakiart about the gist of what you said to Prime Minister Thaksin, he strongly agrees and will encourage Prime Minister Thaksin to do as you have suggested”, Marzuki said “Deputy Prime Minister Chavalit will be important as far as being a bridge to Prem is concerned.”
“Will this be taken as you taking Thaksin’s side, Mr. President?” asked Edi.
“How am I taking Thaksin’s side? I’m telling Thaksin that he needs to get along with the Army instead of telling the Army to back off”, Try replied.
“Come on, Mr. President” Edi said “You can try that line when someone asks about the last few days but not me…the aim here is for Thaksin to remains in place, right?”
“If the Thai Army overthrows Thaksin in a coup, our situation would be impossible”, Try said “If I don’t recognize the coup, I would’ve made an enemy of the Thai Army; if I recognized the coup I would’ve made an enemy out of Thaksin and his supporters.”
“And if China recognizes the coup, we better hope the United States and the West does as well” Marzuki said “Because even with our recognition, if the United States and the West still does not recognize it, express disapproval or whatever and China does, we don’t have enough gravity to prevent Thailand from drifting China’s way.”
Try gestured in Marzuki’s direction in agreement.
“There you go”, Try said.
---
For the sake of being a bit different I left it until quiet late for the “situation” that Thaksin has with the Army to be revealed and of course for the word “coup” to make its appearance.
What’s happening are pretty much things that happened in OTL Thailand except it’s been brought forward a few years and moderated (ie. It’s not as bad because ITTL Thaksin doesn’t have as much control of the Thai Parliament as his OTL version, I daresay the War on Drugs had not gotten under way yet or hadn’t expanded to such a stage that it’s become noticeable). We’re still far away from the OTL political crisis in Thailand as in 2005-2006 but it’s bad enough that a coup is being considered.
Excluding the Army from the Southern Insurgency is as OTL (
https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...dq=Thaksin+SBPAC&pg=PA109&printsec=frontcover) but he hasn’t succeeded in getting his cousin appointed as Commander-in-Chief of the Army as in OTL. Instead Surayud’s just trying to stay on for as long as possible here.
On Prem’s “jockey” metaphor:
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06BANGKOK4277_a.html
Try’s ultimate fear is that China will be the beneficiary of a military coup in Thailand but this isn’t so far-fetched. When the US reacted negatively to the Thai coups in 2006 and 2014 in OTL, and suspended military aid, China has not condemned the coup and Thailand has turned to China and deepened its cooperation with it
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/10/26/thailand-in-emerging-world-order-pub-90818
